TLM - Talisman Mining

[Pat]

There should be plenty of sellers. and they did take it down to 77 cents but it was back up to the 90 cents in a flash. Still looks like the buyers have the upper hand here, but the sellers are catching up... and fast. As always we shall see what tommorrow brings.

 

[moses]

In the short term (like, today) it might be time to take profits. But with the sudden spikes characterstic of this stock anything could happen by next week.

 

[wipz]

Can someone please check out the latest announcement (speeding ticket) and have a look at TLM responses and ore quantities and give some comparason to other iron ore miners/explorers to give us a feel as to were this baby sits price wize.
tks

 

[sydneysider]

Can someone please check out the latest announcement (speeding ticket) and have a look at TLM responses and ore quantities and give some comparason to other iron ore miners/explorers to give us a feel as to were this baby sits price wize.
tks

TLM are talking massive size. They have identified CID potential of 112.5 million tonnes, Marra Mamba of 160.0 million tonnes and all of this from earlier work and drilling. Seems like they did NOT comment on the CID potential in the NE corner of their block which they have just drilled. Seems like this is an extra and is 35 m deep, 600 m wide, +3,000 m and my speculative interpretation at a gravity of 2.5 tonnes per cubic meter = 157.5 million tonnes of CID potential. The total number is 430.0 million tonne potential. This is VERY LARGE. Assuming a profit of $10 tonne of ore, long term cashflow after deduction of all costs would be $4.3 billion. These are very spec numbers. Current valuation is $52,700,000 at 85 cents so the upside is enormous.

 

[dj_420]

Yes there is absolutely massive potential here, I think this is why the sp has not retraced too much. Absolute elephant ground with some very very good targets.

If we compare to UMC who has market cap of well over $150 million now without any previous drill results we can see what TLM could be trading on comparing to peers.

 

[sydneysider]

On a comparative valuation to UMC we are talking about $3.00 per share for TLM BUT this does not truly reflect the valuation of the TLM tenements, at this stage we are speculating. The fact that TLM is prepared to put its "target potential" in a letter to the ASX and not get slapped down is only confirming to me that we are potentially in elephant country. The technicals continue to run "bullish" with very very few sellers around. Good luck to all longs.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I completely missed this one and its one of my biggest regrets ever!

Given the companies estimates and the fact that the projects are 100% owned, I see some very serious upside in this company,

However of equal importance is the sharp run up in the share price, this worried me and has had me waiting on the sidelines for a re-trace, a re-trace which hasn't come yet,

So greed has got the better of me and I've waded in for a few, not many given the huge price spike, but a few

 

[sydneysider]

I completely missed this one and its one of my biggest regrets ever!

Given the companies estimates and the fact that the projects are 100% owned, I see some very serious upside in this company,

However of equal importance is the sharp run up in the share price, this worried me and has had me waiting on the sidelines for a re-trace, a re-trace which hasn't come yet,

So greed has got the better of me and I've waded in for a few, not many given the huge price spike, but a few

Welcome to the thread Daytrader. There is very little stock left to trade in this one at under 90 (if any). There have been small amounts of stock coming into the market each day but that volume runs 500,000 to 1,000,000 shares per day and it is ALL soaked up. Carmichael's floated TLM and have been buying up lots of the dribs and drabs hitting the market. Good luck waiting for the pullback. I think u just need to close your eyes and pay up on this one if u want the ride that may be coming.

 

[canny]

YT - I'm with Sydneysider - just be happy that you're in now!

The potential here could make YML look small!! (price tag potential too)
(Just left you a question on the YML thread, but you can answer it here if you like)

If you run some numbers, which I know you're good at, you'll probably scare yourself....and I{"d love to see what you come up with - the company presentation highlights a lot - and we've only got roughly 3 weeks to results.
Can't see any pull back from here personally - too many people are seeing the signs.

Cheers

 

[yuyry002]

someone just bought 150k at 90cents.wonder who that was.there is still no sign of retrace. still waiting

 

[Pat]

Yes no sign of a retrace... but the run is taking a healthy breather.

Can anyone confirm the exercise price of the options? I've had a look and it would seem the exercise price is 20 cents. As per the quarterly that shows 17million oppies or so. There is a small amount of oppies out there with an exercise price of 25 cents so I'm assuming that these are not the traded options.
If this is the case, the oppies are now trading at a discount. I got in at open at a price of 65 cents, essentially picking up heads at 85 cents.

Am I wrong? If so, why is this being overlooked?

 

[dj_420]

Yes no sign of a retrace... but the run is taking a healthy breather.

Can anyone confirm the exercise price of the options? I've had a look and it would seem the exercise price is 20 cents. As per the quarterly that shows 17million oppies or so. There is a small amount of oppies out there with an exercise price of 25 cents so I'm assuming that these are not the traded options.
If this is the case, the oppies are now trading at a discount. I got in at open at a price of 65 cents, essentially picking up heads at 85 cents.

Am I wrong? If so, why is this being overlooked?

Hey Pat

Thos oppies are exercisable at 20 cents. I believe the rest are in escrow for release at a later date.

So yeah at the moment the oppies are trading at a bit of a discount to the heads. I picked up some today at 66 cents.

I have been looking through Doir for a similar company with such fantastic tenements and I cannot for the life of me find one that offers so much potential.

Within the heart of the Pilbara the only juniors operating in there are UMC and TLM. The sp of these two now reflect the potential that both these aspiring companies hold.

TLM in particular has a massive amount of land in their tenement even compared to the majors! Something quite significant I thought.

 

[dj_420]

I have drawn up another map regarding surrounding tenements and it is noted that where the best targets are on TLM tenement are actually extensions from other mining leases.

On this tenement map the mining leases are ones in blue, the exploration leases are ones in purple.

It is shown that the best extensions have come from the north from the RIO lease. These CID can typically run for many km's and are usually very large exploration targets.

I would expect these deposits are extensions from both RIO and Cazaly leases. The main point is that the TLM tenements have various majors around them who are intending to mine or are mining on those adjoining tenements.

 

[dj_420]

Map didnt attach properly, here is the TLM tenement map with surrounding mining leases.

Im having problems attaching map, Ill just keep trying to get it up.

 

[ekman]

Yes no sign of a retrace... but the run is taking a healthy breather.

Am I wrong? If so, why is this being overlooked?

imo the oppies being so far away form conversion date may be the reason for the discount. they generally would be at par maybe within a year from the conversion date. i maybe wrong

 

[Pat]

imo the oppies being so far away form conversion date may be the reason for the discount. they generally would be at par maybe within a year from the conversion date. i maybe wrong

I know what your saying, however, when TLM was trading at 36 cents approx, the heads came at a premium. If I remember correctly, options where trading at 20-22 cents.

 

[gfresh]

You can excise or sell the options at any time.. essentially current TLM: $0.88.. TLMO: $0.65

$0.65 + 0.20 (excise price) = $0.85 - oppies are trading at 3c discount to the heads. Buy the oppies , although SP is coming down today so just keep an eye on that.

A lot of people are unfamiliar with options so maybe this is why they are currently trading at the discount? -- https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7639&highlight=options

 

[Pat]

TLM seems to be looking good if your long term, for the moment i'm out as I have reservations regarding the "health" of the market at the moment. But i'll be keeping a close eye on this one, good luck to longs

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well is this thing ever going to retrace?

"Black monday" saw a very small fall to 75c support, then Tuesday saw a strong bounce back up to 90c


I love the fundamentals of this and I really really want to have a big position, but this chart scares the hell out of me!

Techies what do you see happening next?

 

[roland]

Well is this thing ever going to retrace?

"Black monday" saw a very small fall to 75c support, then Tuesday saw a strong bounce back up to 90c


I love the fundamentals of this and I really really want to have a big position, but this chart scares the hell out of me!

Techies what do you see happening next?

I'm in at .60, stupid me sold at .59 - I could even be tempted to buy in at .70, but the chart scares me as well.