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Tipping Competition for Full CY 2022

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I expect the correction/bear market I believe to be on the horizon (which with the stock market could be tomorrow or still a few months away) will probably test all of us - with the speculative end of the market most likely to be hurt the most. Anyway, that's tomorrow and as traders/investors what's happening now is more important.

XAO has broken up out of a pennant pattern and while movements this time of the year need to be considered in light of the thin market with the Big End of Town generally on leave. This could see last weeks late Santa Rally push on a little more.
 
Big end of town might come back braver than they left before the break. Cap notes are red today (what's on my screen) Wondering if this is a telling sign? Lots of people have been cautious, expecting a pullback......will be nice when big end of town comes back feeling energised and start a party. Premarket down 46

​

 
I missed the cutoff for the competition but will post regardless, just in case it is of interest to anyone.

My four top picks for this year are:
1. IVZ
2. TLX
3. ANP
4. PXS

IVZ - Invictus Energy - oil and gas explorer in Zimbabwe. Has a potentially great tenement which was left unexplored because of the lack of interest in gas in the 80s and then political issues after that. Drilling its maiden well in May with another to follow shortly after. Good chance of success. Energy market in Africa has changed considerably over the decades and there is a strong demand for their gas if they are successful. Infrastructure is pretty good so getting their product to market should be relatively cheap and easy, compared to other locations. Potential to be a multibagger.

TLX - Telix - biotech which has just received FDA approval for their prostate imaging product. It's operating worldwide so will continue to advance in other jurisdictions as well plus it has multiple other products at various stages of development. Very switched on management. Taking the approach of developing via fast track channels where possible to expedite development. Catalysts this year will be revenues and further advances in their pipeline. Quite a large stock and multibagger last year but I still think it's got the potential to double (or more) again this year.

ANP - another biotech but at the other end of the market. On the cusp of commencing their stage 2/3 trials for DMD. I'm hoping this will be a 3 bagger this year - should increase more than TLX but less than IVZ if everything goes to plan.

PXS - I didn't have a 4th stock which is why I didn't get an entry in prior to closing. Out of desperation, I have chosen PXS as it has the most potential out of my other biotechs. Good management. Some good products under development. Might go nowhere or might multibag. For me, it's a coin toss where this will end up in Dec but I'm pretty confident it won't be negative.
 
welcome to posting

there will be a new monthly contest starting late January for February , only one pick for the month .. then the problem is which one ( that nobody else has picked for that month )

good luck with your picks
 
Hi Joe
will there be a monthly scorecard to see how we are going with our tips?
Thanks
 
I have decided to use the weekend to provide an update for the CY2022 Competition. As there are more participants this year it takes more time to collate the results and I prefer to do this over the weekend rather than during the week.

This year there are 86 competitors and they've selected 231 individual stocks.
 
@peter2
I was wondering;
1. How long it takes you to do this?
and
2. If you would like a hand, I could do half of them if needed or wanted?

Is any of the process automated?

Many hands make light work, however, too many cooks spoil the broth...
 
Hello @peter2
Will the opening prices be adjusted for those stocks going ex-dividend during the year, in the same way that the monthly competition opening price is adjusted?
Thanks,
KH
 
You touch on a good point Frugal.
Peter2 is taking on a ridiculous amount of work on our behalf.
Aren't there are enough tech savvy posters in here to assist Peter2 towards a database software that could make his life easier. For example, but not confined to MS Access.
 
Thanks for the offer. I timed the process today.

(1) Manually input prices into the spreadsheet: 67 min

(2) Sort order by cut & pasting: 25 min

All up : about 1.5hr.

re #1: I could create a macro to download the data from the CY22 watchlist into the spreadsheet. However the way I've set up the spreadsheet it gets awkward when the next months data is input. It replaces the prior months data and I want to keep it all. It could be done but I'm not certain it would work out so easily each month.

The main xls looks like this;



I suppose I could get the prices from the watchlist and transfer them into the monthly column based on the stockcode in column B.
Any suggestions would be welcome if it saves 30min. If you prefer to PM me please do.

re #2 Tricky for me to create a macro to sort every fifth line (by totals) without getting the other lines out of order. This becomes less work as the year progresses as the order gets more established.
 
@KevinBB I include all divs and capital returns at the EOY for the place getters only. This saves me lots of work throughout the year. If a competitor is not in the top 5 at the EOY an extra 4% on anyone's total doesn't really matter.

If anyone is having a few bets with friends on the EOY result then I'm sure they'll adjust my results as they see fit.


@Sean K I think you already have. Good luck with that strategy.
 
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