Thought Bubbles from the Deep

[DeepState]

Australian Employment figures were released today. The data points to a continued move towards slightly more hours of work spread over even more people...hollowing out the full time worker even further. There was a minor decrease in the participation rate which hints at worker disillusion.

The decline in unemployment rate headline by 0.1% to 5.7% s.a. should not be read as an improvement in the labour situation. The details suggest weak wage pressure remains in place for now.

 

[DeepState]

The value which investment managers add to the world's security is demonstrated by today's Trump item of interest (from NYT):



If only this were actually a freakin' joke.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Donald Trump appears to have underwritten the equity market. Promises of tax cuts, deregulation, protectionism and infrastructure development have set the markets alight and given breathe to the animal spirits. It can’t last….so goes the usual instinct.

Hmmm how easy is it gonna happen?

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/paul-ryan-tax-reform-republicans-235117

 

[DeepState]

Once upon a time in a galaxy far far way:

1025 Jedi Knight wannabes came to the Mount (market), hoping to become a Jedi Knight (Goldman Prop Trader).
Each also wanted to double or quadruple their money at least.
Each had one coin.

The Master Said..."each one of you pair up with another"
"Fight until submission!"
"Only the victor shall proceed!"

Now, each Jedi wannabe was a perfect clone of another...so it was merely luck which decided the outcome of a physical contest like this. Each had equally matched sword skills (Amibroker code etc.). A waft of breeze or a speck of dust determined the outcome.

The vanquished handed their coin to the victor...(zero sum game)

Each fight was epic, lasting a 1000 hours of light sabre swashbuckling (according to the mythical records).
Thankfully, these were LEDs and emitted little by way of CO2 relative to earlier models.

512 Jedi managed to double their money.

"Pair up and fight until submission!"
Another 1000 hours pass.

256 Jedi quadrupled their money.

On it goes until one last Jedi stands on the Mount. 1024 coins in her purse (Winner, best Stats available, Zero drawdown). 10,000 hours of experience accumulated (Must be an expert).

Which Jedi wannabe did the Master choose to train? Why?

 

[tech/a]

The one that wasn't paired

 

[DeepState]

Good one...and why?

 

[Habakkuk]

Good one...and why?

Could it be because the winner of the contest picked up 10,000 hours' worth of bad trading habits, assuming the win was due to luck alone.

The 1025th Jedi, the non-participant, can still be taught to trade properly by the Master.

Or maybe that the ego of the winner would get in the way of good trading. If you've just won against 1023 others, you might well feel indestructible.

 

[peter2]

This one is un-scarred by any battle, yet knows the battle is tough and very few survive.
This one has seen the importance of luck and realises that it's not enough.
This one is prepared for the hard work required in order to learn the skills of battle.

The master sees a properly motivated blank canvas.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Actually. The master may be a good Jedi but he is crap at talent identification......

 

[DeepState]

This one is un-scarred by any battle, yet knows the battle is tough and very few survive.
This one has seen the importance of luck and realises that it's not enough.
This one is prepared for the hard work required in order to learn the skills of battle.

The master sees a properly motivated blank canvas.

Of course this is all made up, but my perspective was:

The one who sat out was the rare one who could step aside from the context of battle, whose outcome she knew was just luck.

She showed the ability to avoid a stupid game where no skill was involved but where the chances of success were only 1/1024 and the chances of failure were the balance.

If the Master were truly a Master, she too would be unswayed by the triumphant outcomes, knowing that deliberate practice at throwing coins does not make you an expert at producing an outcome which is desired in terms of directional positioning. There was always going to be a winner. Despite the victory, and all the superficial confirmations that an exhibition of skill took place, this winner should not be celebrated despite the fame and spoils of victory.

If the Master were truly a Master, the patient Jedi wannabe knows that the Master would see that the Jedi wannabe had self control, despite experiencing the same desire for wealth and fame, and an ability to assess edge and odds. No one else had this. However, these are basic requirements to become a Jedi Master. For the Master to make another choice, she would simply assure failure. It's only a question of when.

Of course, the one who sat out might have just missed out randomly. So it's hard to tell..... Even so, there is a non-zero chance that the one who sat out meant to...so selecting this Jedi wannabe remains the best choice the Master could make if one apprentice is to be selected.

 

[peter2]

Thanks for that.
My perspective was looking at the individual after the battles and speculating on what that person may have learned to be a better candidate for the Master.

Your perspective was on the individual's motivations before the battles commenced. I'd overlooked that perspective.

There's bound to be an appropriate Sun Tzu quote for this.

 

[tech/a]

1025 had no choice they simply had no one to pair with

You've all been fooled by randomness.

Dumb luck for both

 

[skc]

If the Master were truly a Master, the patient Jedi wannabe knows that the Master would see that the Jedi wannabe had self control, despite experiencing the same desire for wealth and fame, and an ability to assess edge and odds.

I am confused. Weren't they all clones?

 

[DeepState]

I am confused. Weren't they all clones?

Physically identical in ability.
Choices made differed.

Apparently we have the ability to freely choose our actions...
Otherwise our entire justice system operates on the incorrect basis that crime is a choice which can be met with some form of punishment as a response.
Otherwise the big fella up there would know what our actions were from before time began and thus our destiny is sealed from before we were born and thus Eve could not be blamed for her actions and all those subsequently. Except, apparently, she is to blame and...
Otherwise Gattaca's by-line "There is no gene for the human spirit" would be cast in to doubt.

If any of the above were incorrect, and Laplacian pre-determination is the rule that governs the universe, then this conversation doesn't really matter because our destiny is already made....yet, according to Sarah Conner, "There is no fate but what we make". She has seen the future....

 

[skc]

If the Master were truly a Master, the patient Jedi wannabe knows that the Master would see that the Jedi wannabe had self control, despite experiencing the same desire for wealth and fame, and an ability to assess edge and odds. No one else had this.

Physically identical in ability.
Choices made differed.

Ability to assess edge and odds - definitely not a physical ability so I guess it's a mental ability. So clones have different mental ability then. That's fine. I have not studied clones in detail so I am OK with that definition.

However...given the above.. How do we know that the winning 1/1024 Jedi:
- didn't have a higher mental ability (as we've established above that mental abilities can be different among clones) and used that as an edge to win all his/her battles? It may involve general human traits like courage, determination, cunningness, adaptability, attention to detail etc etc, to more Jedi specific dimensions.

And, how do we know that the 1025th Jedi Wannabe:
- wasn't just lucky (as Teah/a said) because he/she stood in some obscure corner and didn't get pair up by chance?
- wasn't actually a coward and deliberately ran away from the contest?


And lastly:
- When a Jedi's force allows movement of physical objects, choking someone's throat or shooting lightning from the fingertips using the mind alone... where does physical ability ends and mental ability begins for a Jedi?

Perhaps the Master should just walk into the room, and declared "The force is strong in this one" and made his/her decision then and there??

May the force be with you

 

[skc]

Perhaps the Master should just walk into the room, and declared "The force is strong in this one" and made his/her decision then and there??

A quick Google search proved that it was indeed what the Jedi Master end up doing.

 

[skyQuake]

This reminds me of an apocryphal story:

A mathematician and an engineer are presented with the following scenario:
"I have a fair coin that has landed Heads on the last 99 flips. What is the probability that the 100th flip is also Heads?"
The mathematician easily answers that the odds are 50% as such are the ironclad laws of probability.
The engineer gives a look and incredulity and answers:
"Mate that is no fair coin, the bloody thing must be weighted!"

I would totally hire the 1/1024 Jedi. And maybe forwardtest by sending him/her to the casino first.

 

[DeepState]

 

[DeepState]

Ability to assess edge and odds - definitely not a physical ability so I guess it's a mental ability. So clones have different mental ability then. That's fine. I have not studied clones in detail so I am OK with that definition.

I have studied clones for 10,000 hours, I am therefore an an expert on clones. This is the way clones are.

However...given the above.. How do we know that the winning 1/1024 Jedi:
- didn't have a higher mental ability (as we've established above that mental abilities can be different among clones) and used that as an edge to win all his/her battles? It may involve general human traits like courage, determination, cunningness, adaptability, attention to detail etc etc, to more Jedi specific dimensions.

Because the Jedi Wannabes were selected from an extensive list of clones, each of which was pitted against the other to assure quality control of the batch in terms of sword craft. This was six-sigma certified and the batch was such that the differences in direct conflict ability, however obtained, were so minute that the skills were within the margin of a dust particle in full combat conditions.

This allowed me to issue a PDS, which was cleared by APRA and the Nevada Athletic Commission , with the phrase:
"each Jedi wannabe was a perfect clone of another...so it was merely luck which decided the outcome of a physical contest like this. Each had equally matched sword skills (Amibroker code etc.). A waft of breeze or a speck of dust determined the outcome."

And, how do we know that the 1025th Jedi Wannabe:
- wasn't just lucky (as Teah/a said) because he/she stood in some obscure corner and didn't get pair up by chance?
- wasn't actually a coward and deliberately ran away from the contest?

The response to Peter2, in revealing the deep rationale, did include:

"Of course, the one who sat out might have just missed out randomly. So it's hard to tell..... Even so, there is a non-zero chance that the one who sat out meant to...so selecting this Jedi wannabe remains the best choice the Master could make if one apprentice is to be selected."

As for cowardice, is it cowardly to avoid a battle with no edge? Or is it a good judgment?

And lastly:
- When a Jedi's force allows movement of physical objects, choking someone's throat or shooting lightning from the fingertips using the mind alone... where does physical ability ends and mental ability begins for a Jedi?

Luke Skywalker could not move objects before training by Obe Wan. By Episode 7, the Star Wars franchise had gone downmarket and Rey ccould do all sorts of funky Jedi stuff via innate ability. That was just special effects and not the real deal. Episode 7 is a fictional representation, unlike Episode 4 which was legit.

Perhaps the Master should just walk into the room, and declared "The force is strong in this one" and made his/her decision then and there??

May the force be with you

Actually, you've got me there. The Master demonstrated one of the key traits of combat. She possessed an information advantage. There is no law against inside knowledge in Jedi land.

 

[skc]

I have studied clones for 10,000 hours, I am therefore an an expert on clones. This is the way clones are.

No debate here. Anyone disagreeing with that must be a Startrek fan.

This allowed me to issue a PDS, which was cleared by APRA and the Nevada Athletic Commission , with the phrase:
"each Jedi wannabe was a perfect clone of another...so it was merely luck which decided the outcome of a physical contest like this. Each had equally matched sword skills (Amibroker code etc.). A waft of breeze or a speck of dust determined the outcome."

I don't know. I tend to think dust particle movements are actually non-random... it's like the random walk theory - whilst the share price chart may appear random, there are reasons underlying such movements and there exists abilities to predict such movements better than random. Some might even control such movements. Few Jedi can master them... but I can't rule out that the 1/1024 Jedi Wannabe didn't move speck of dusts in his favour during the grueling duels.

As for cowardice, is it cowardly to avoid a battle with no edge? Or is it a good judgment?

It's a poor judgement even on the premise that there is no edge. It was most definitely a gamble on what the Jedi Master might do in reaction to his non-participation and non-compliance to the rules. It was also a gamble that the Jedi Master would violate his own rule so soon after 1023 Jedi Wannabes had died in vain. So no I don't think battle avoidance can be categorically viewed as a positive.

Also worth noting is that, it's quite silly of the Jedi Master to hold such a contest knowing that 1). There was an odd number of contestants and 2). The actual contest method (if indeed there is no physical edge possible) would serve no real purpose aside from meaningless deaths. This leads me to believe that, the Jedi Master is not a real Jedi Master at all. He probably doesn't even use a light saber... Or he's only ever backtested his light saber skills in a demo galaxy. If I was a Jedi Wannabe, I'd ask for Jedi Council audited duelling record to verify his credentials.

Luke Skywalker could not move objects before training by Obe Wan. By Episode 7, the Star Wars franchise had gone downmarket and Rey ccould do all sorts of funky Jedi stuff via innate ability. That was just special effects and not the real deal. Episode 7 is a fictional representation, unlike Episode 4 which was legit.

I had always thought that! Episode 7 was showed in 72 fps which is clearly a product of computer generated graphics. Whereas you can just feel the actual physical texture of the death star in Episode 4. You just can't fake reactions like that.



In Episode 7, the death star v3 was supposedly much bigger, yet we saw virtually no reaction among the rebels.

Actually, you've got me there. The Master demonstrated one of the key traits of combat. She possessed an information advantage. There is no law against inside knowledge in Jedi land.

Inside, all knowledge can only be.