This is more than a correction....?
- Thread starter Realist
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jet-r...
given the volatility of the market there's probably a good chance those highly volatile stocks you just mentioned might bounce back...
I'd be worried if this was just a correction if the market falls beyond the support set in February this year.
given the volatility of the market there's probably a good chance those highly volatile stocks you just mentioned might bounce back...
I'd be worried if this was just a correction if the market falls beyond the support set in February this year.
Thanks for the detailed reply, lewstherein. I hope everything works out for you.
I remember when I first started trading the markets, I was in a similar situation -- lots of time to watch the markets and didn't use stop losses. Not that I think you'd end up like me back then, but after a short time doing that I quickly learned the value of stops. The main thing that caused my downfall then was that each day I would evaluate the market differently and this would most often keep me in a stock that I should have long sold.
Cheers,
Dennis
I remember when I first started trading the markets, I was in a similar situation -- lots of time to watch the markets and didn't use stop losses. Not that I think you'd end up like me back then, but after a short time doing that I quickly learned the value of stops. The main thing that caused my downfall then was that each day I would evaluate the market differently and this would most often keep me in a stock that I should have long sold.
Cheers,
Dennis
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I'm down exactly 2% today.
The market was down slightly more, about 2.3%
I beat the market. :bananasmi
I'll think I'll have a beer to celebrate..
The market was down slightly more, about 2.3%
I beat the market. :bananasmi
I'll think I'll have a beer to celebrate..
U.S inflation data due out in the next few days will be crucial in determining if this is just a "healthy correction" or a full scale bear market.A 0.2% core reading will be positive for the market but anything over 0.3% will send investors panicking.Also,Bernanke is making a few speeches this week but unlike Greenspan,this bloke is too transparent with his intentions and will probably spook the market further.I fear the worst.
Sean K
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Mmmm, I am hoping that the interest rate rise is now factored into the market. If the official report says all isn't too bad then the market might relax and we'll see the start of the next upleg.
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Yeah that's an interesting question, what will happen if the news out of the US is POSITIVE? I think we can already see what's going to happen/keep happening if its negative, but if its good news can we expect everything to go ape ****, or will it just gradually attempt to regain to where it was before.
This little period has taught me never, EVER to look at a market in isolation, the affects of the US are ridiculously strong on the ASX to the point where I wonder if its better just trading the US market directly!
This little period has taught me never, EVER to look at a market in isolation, the affects of the US are ridiculously strong on the ASX to the point where I wonder if its better just trading the US market directly!
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As has been previously stated on other threads, this correction was always going to be much deeper than most market players expected.
Just 5-6 weeks ago people were raving on about how great the market was performing. "it's different this time they said, the Chindia story is very compelling"
All I have learnt over the years is that the market is very efficient. Efficient at taking $$$ out of the crowds pockets and placing it into other parties pockets!!
When most of the crowd are utterly disgusted with their positions in resource stoxx, and are convinced that they will not see former glory any time soon, that is when the market will finish the current bear campaign and turn upward again.
The Dow is falling impulsively and is toward the later stages of a 3rd wave downward. I beleive the XAO will find support in the 4660-4720pt range before a rally will occur, probably by early next month. Any subsequent rally should be in the order 240-315pts, and lasting approximately 2 months before a nasty wave C leg takes it out for the rest of year/early next year and find a solid low betwen 3900-4050pts. This should be a sold point for the market to rally again and trade in a sideways range for a number of years, before it blows off into a final high in the 6000-6500 range
Just 5-6 weeks ago people were raving on about how great the market was performing. "it's different this time they said, the Chindia story is very compelling"
All I have learnt over the years is that the market is very efficient. Efficient at taking $$$ out of the crowds pockets and placing it into other parties pockets!!
When most of the crowd are utterly disgusted with their positions in resource stoxx, and are convinced that they will not see former glory any time soon, that is when the market will finish the current bear campaign and turn upward again.
The Dow is falling impulsively and is toward the later stages of a 3rd wave downward. I beleive the XAO will find support in the 4660-4720pt range before a rally will occur, probably by early next month. Any subsequent rally should be in the order 240-315pts, and lasting approximately 2 months before a nasty wave C leg takes it out for the rest of year/early next year and find a solid low betwen 3900-4050pts. This should be a sold point for the market to rally again and trade in a sideways range for a number of years, before it blows off into a final high in the 6000-6500 range
MMMM I think I will sit on the sidelines for a bit longer yet . I was kicked out of the market about two weeks ago on my stops and the temptation to buy again is nearly killing me . I did have a very small dabble on shorting using CFD's but couldn't get the timing right .
Remember the old sayin "Buy the rumour , sell the fact " or in this case the other way around .
There are certianly some prize shares to be picked up at the moment but with the price of gold still dropping and the sentiment in the states what it is , I feel the hurt isn't over yet .
I do have some managed funds that I used to look at fairly often. Well I have since deleted the shortcut to them and I will ride those out . No sense in being depressed about it .
But i'll have to admit the balance don't look as good as it used too
cheers Martin
Remember the old sayin "Buy the rumour , sell the fact " or in this case the other way around .
There are certianly some prize shares to be picked up at the moment but with the price of gold still dropping and the sentiment in the states what it is , I feel the hurt isn't over yet .
I do have some managed funds that I used to look at fairly often. Well I have since deleted the shortcut to them and I will ride those out . No sense in being depressed about it .
But i'll have to admit the balance don't look as good as it used too
cheers Martin
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Not a hope in hell of going that low.
Fortunately all of my stocks pay dividends, hopefully I'll average around 4 to 5% from that. About what i'd get if I had it in cash anyway.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Realist said:Not a hope in hell of going that low.
LOL We're halfway there already.
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attached chart shows it all --- don't have to be a guru -- mid- term us elections
expect a decline into oct then a pick up -- only odd one out in over a 1/4 of a century was 1987 -- 2006 is presumed , of course
Just have to nut how POG relates to all this
Cheers
If your not Short CFDs by now , you might be in for a HARD lesson -- NO Bargains untills Sept/Nov
Coyotte
Even Shorted shares in Acme !!!
expect a decline into oct then a pick up -- only odd one out in over a 1/4 of a century was 1987 -- 2006 is presumed , of course
Just have to nut how POG relates to all this
Cheers
If your not Short CFDs by now , you might be in for a HARD lesson -- NO Bargains untills Sept/Nov
Coyotte
Even Shorted shares in Acme !!!
Attachments
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You guys/gals have it sooo easy now !
online tradeing
Real time prices
$10 bucks brokerage
Actually to to be able to SHORT --- (get to KNOW stock & ride it UP & DN )
overwhelliming on line data
really sophisticated T/A
In my day, if U was lucky enough to get a referall to a Broker , then $100 bucks to just see a Broker -- then Brokerage added on (ave T/M wage @ $160 pw) -- then you only could buy stock that was recomended
my first T/A book was put out by the Financial Review & was based on POG , 21ma & trend line -- that was it for T/A
as for prices -- yesterdays Close in the morning paper
Charting --- U did your own -- on a Lotus 123 SpreadSheet (cost a heap for the software ) or by hand graph paper
Yet some of us acctually did make a profit on a annual basis
Cheers
online tradeing
Real time prices
$10 bucks brokerage
Actually to to be able to SHORT --- (get to KNOW stock & ride it UP & DN )
overwhelliming on line data
really sophisticated T/A
In my day, if U was lucky enough to get a referall to a Broker , then $100 bucks to just see a Broker -- then Brokerage added on (ave T/M wage @ $160 pw) -- then you only could buy stock that was recomended
my first T/A book was put out by the Financial Review & was based on POG , 21ma & trend line -- that was it for T/A
as for prices -- yesterdays Close in the morning paper
Charting --- U did your own -- on a Lotus 123 SpreadSheet (cost a heap for the software ) or by hand graph paper
Yet some of us acctually did make a profit on a annual basis
Cheers
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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coyotte said:
Yer... I remember paying 2.5% commish.
1c or less per share now.
LOL
Realist said:Not a hope in hell of going that low.
Fortunately all of my stocks pay dividends, hopefully I'll average around 4 to 5% from that. About what i'd get if I had it in cash anyway.
yeh i guess u can say that 2 urself if u wanna make urself feel better
losses in double digits and less than 5% dividend... HMmmm...
Realist
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Haha, I am not even down this year (yet
), and have alot of dividends to come.I have no worries!!
