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The Wyckoff Method

Hi All
Some time ago when I was reading this thread I came across a trading system that had an Acronym for a name. I think it was 5 or 6 letters the letters and the name described the system. Only shares that paid dividends were considered so one letter was a "D" only shares that had an institution as a major shareholder were considered, so another letter was "I" I know that it came from an American university but that is all I can remember.

Can anyone give me a lead on this?

Happyjack
 
Hi Happyjack,

Did you mean CANSLIM?

C - Current quarterly earnings per share has increased sharply from the same quarters' earnings reported in the prior year. (Beware of items in financial statements that can cause earnings distortions.)

A - Annual earnings increases over the last five years.

N - New products, management, and other new events. In addition, the company's stock has reached new highs.

S - Small supply and large demand for a stock creates excess demand, and an environment in which stock prices can soar. Companies acquiring their own stock reduces market supply and can indicate their expectation of future profitability. Look for low debt-equity ratios.

L - Choose leaders over laggard stocks within the same industry. Use the relative strength index as a guide.

I - Pick stocks who have institutional sponsorship by a few institutions with recent above average performance. Be cautious of stocks that are over owned by institutions.

M - Determining market direction by reviewing market averages daily.

bye

brty
 
hello Happyjack

The only thing that rings a bell

with letters acronym and method
is William O'Neil's

CANSLIM


Not completely off topic
Here is Richard Wyckoff 's 1920 version


On Mr Market


motorway
 
Hi Brty and Motorway
That is the one I was thinking of, God knows where I got the Dividend bit from.

This time I will write it down but the last time I found it I was trying to concentrate on the Wykoff side of it I just pushed it to the corner of my mind.

Thank you for the time and effort you put it researching it for me

Happyjack
 
Hey Motorway,

I have another question.

I think you mentioned that P+F charts and Wyckoff methods can be used to set a target. This would be good to learn.

Hypothetically, let's say last week (Monday) was a successful Secondary Test.
And I entered a long SPI position at 5100. (like many did!)
Where would the target(s) be according to P+F analysis? Or is this something you work out depending on what you see as the price goes up?

thanks again.
 




P&F is used to quantify this unfolding imbalance.
It is measuring the "differences of opinion"' that when resolved will result in the price moving to a new level

Price moves to the new level by the principle of markup and markdown..

( inventory can be simply marked up or down it does not have to trend..That is why the imbalance in demand and supply... The cause that will have an effect is important to identify )

This quantity is the objective ( like the target of an archer. The bow is an energy storage device that releases and flights the arrow.

How important is it to recognize the energy in the bow before the arrow is shot.. rather than when the arrow is in flight esp if that bow was pointing at YOU )

What is the Wyckoff Method ?

It is identifying imbalances of demand and supply
it is not moving averages
it is not buying breakouts
it is not any indicators

it is

demand and supply
cause and effect
effort and result

The best way to get a grip of a P&F chart
is watch one in real time unfold

those differences of opinion.. arise and are resolved

the chart flows , it congests-----> pressure builds ( the bow is drawn )

The most important differences are those between

Strong and Weak hands

A stock goes down there is selling overcoming demand
But the transfer of ownership builds a "cause"

stability creates instability ( sub-prime excesses ? )

The P&F and esp the areas of congestion identify this cause building



That is early Wyckoff from 1908/1909

The best measure of this resistance is the congestion on the P&F

It it not a horizontal line drawn from a top or bottom

It is the differences between Strong and Weak hands
It is opposing forces being overcome

Demand meeting Supply
Supply meeting Demand

Sentiment and Ownership changes.

P&F is very instructive
If you have the opportunity to watch

A P&F chart "FLOW" through through time

You will soon appreciate what
resistance is and what happens when it is overcome

It is always something met up ahead
It is the running into the opposite force

The more congestion on the P&F
The more new ground that will be
achieved

Bull markets are the "cause" of bear markets
Bear markets are the "cause" of bull markets

An important Wyckoff principle is the springboard.

Where is the spingboard for a move really ?
It is not the breakout to new or highs or low.

That is the move itself that will gather a following
It has already sprung already..



motorway
 

I would totally endorse those sentiments

The WYCKOFF-SMI course is the real deal imo

Just point out I am not pushing myself forward as any type of expert

SMI are posting some very nice articles...

I recommend you grab that small bit of unit one linked in the first post

It contains a nice definition of the three laws.

sharing and discussion

motorway
 
Charts might be marked a bit different

( had some problems lost some saved charts )

Bar chart

A large Volume down bar

BUT rising bottoms and second and third bars
deem that volume to be demand

You need to see the last three bars as one bar
A three day bar... But only these three

The next four bars might be a theme
and then the next six ....
if only We had a chart that could do that for us

Adapt to the support and resistance as it unfolds

and only change columns as the themes change---------P&F

The 2 box 2point chart over these three days as been a very strong pattern

We left it with the other side turning up ( demand ) the chart slowed and congested...But at the end of the day the "ladle" overflowed
But not by much

From there ( a higher low ) a strong move up above the last high
a "back-up" and then a strong move pushing through supply

Demand was moving higher "absorbing" and pushing through supply..
A strong pattern

USA mkts will again have the ability to whip this around
BUT strength is still strength..

And atm this thrust down ( this wave ) still has not made much new ground.

motorway
 

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R.WYCKOFF

"Stock prices are made by the minds of men."

I'm no expert, but I tend to agree.

Any thoughts on R.Wyckoff?

thanks

ceasar73.
 
The Link to this Pruden Article is not longer available
It was available for a significant period of time..

It is from ---> TSAA Newsletter August, 1995

I would refer always to the SMI-WYCKOFF original material

You are always getting a bit of someone else ( which does not mean it is not valuable ) When the material is from a second hand, and a different emphasis.

motorway included

motorway


 
continued

 

Thanks a million motorway, that article has some very practical, and hopefully, very powerful advice. The psychology behind the techniques is very interesting and is worth adopting in a suitable manner.

The fact that you refer constantly, and in detail, to Wyckoff's original material is one distinguishing feature of your writing and explanation. It certainly allows readers to glimpse the core of his teachings and judge the material for themselves instead of just swallowing someone else's gloss or simplified interpretation of the course. I'm sure Wyckoff would have been proud of your efforts.

Thank you again for sharing your passion with us so freely in such a collegiate manner!
 

Really well put RichKid, second your sentiments.

I found the article excellent. A lot of 'psychology of trading' works I find simplistic and less than helpful.
 
Motorway,

Just a quick question on reverse trendlines.

On the attached chart of SIP I have drawn some reverse trendlines (in White) as well as the normal TL (in red). Reverse TL are drawn between the last to thrusts down with high volume.

I've used the reverse TL to highlight the slowing of the thrusts down and change of behaviour on the chart (ease of movement). Is this use of reverse TL valid?

Thanks
 

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Strong day for the overall market and also a good day for SIP.

The last two bars esp I think reveal demand


The ease of movement has very obvioulsy slowed since around July 07 - between points 5 - 7. The thrusts down have slowed considerably and the last thrust down has taken longer than the rest for not much new ground.

I would see Preliminary Support at July 07
A Selling Climax at sep 07....Which stopped the downtrend

But

And look at the volume needed to push the price below $1.30. Effort & Result.
The next few days will give more insight into whether yesterdays high vol was demand or not but todays action seems to suggest it was.

Yes I would agree

This may not be the end of this current wave down as I would like to see a better rally than 1 day but the next rally and reaction will reveal more insight (character).

Yes We want to see a Sign of Strength


What I see atm is -
Slowing of momentum to the downside - shortening of thrusts (has yet to go up though)
The volume that has come in, has slowed the descent. Ease of movement - line of least resistence revealing itself?

The line of least resistance is changing
But a new one is not just yet revealed ( to me )

There is a damming up happening

Supply & Demand
Effort & Result
Cause & Effect

All there is


now this but... I think it is very good to be questioning of all moves down in this type of mkt

The Selling climax maybe has in a sense failed
But in the context of the market has it failed or is the ending action just been extended and delayed ?

The volume at PS & SC was very large

The action from the SC volume subsided esp Dec Feb Mar

What was happening ?

Yes I think Your reverse trend line is justified

A reverse trend line needs a volume definition in one position
it is where the other side ( the reverse ) came in

Here it is demand !

So if you take the lower line of the reverse use
and the upper line of the normal use

What have you drawn ?

A valid APEX

The thrusts are not only making less ground
But the action is narrowing

My take on that would be that supply withdrew had been overcome
But where we could have expected a SOS we got very little

Did the Character of the market delay the appearance of demand ?

You can see the price drifts down with three rejections of lower prices
( like springs But these are in a down trend )

The stock is moving down with the market
But not being driven down with urgent supply

The stock is just sagging ( A RED FLAG at a TOP but at a BOTTOM ? )

This changes around the 20th mar..

( Supply will always turn up )

The last two bars tend to confirm buying..

BUT what are the buyers' time frames ?

Maybe much longer than yours?

What would tell us would be urgency..

A SOS ( Sign of Strength )

Note also the recent strength in the mkt
and the relative weakness in this stock

The Sellers reached down to the buyers
The last bar puts the positive case.

discussion
motorway
 
Really well put RichKid, second your sentiments.

I found the article excellent. A lot of 'psychology of trading' works I find simplistic and less than helpful.

Yes indeed. I thirded o) it.

As you can probably tell, this quote is high on my 'remember list'.

16. Overcoming the "egocentric predicament" by playing the role of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR automatically neutralizes the emotions by placing one is a dissociated position. Tharp notes that:
 

Thanks for the reply MW.

Lots to take out of the above part of the post.

BUT what are the buyers' time frames ?

Maybe much longer than yours?

What would tell us would be urgency..

A SOS ( Sign of Strength )

This is a very valid point, hence why I haven't taken a position yet.

Demand does not seem to be in a hurry and is willing to wait for supply to come to it atm. But in the current market conditions why would it be in a hurry? Plenty of time to accumulate and plenty of supply around at these levels atm, no need to chase prices up yet.

But someone is willing to slowly soak the supply up atm. Early stages

First they scare you out, then they bore you out, and then if they can they scare you out again.
This quote readily comes to mind with this stock atm.

ATM I'm using this stock as yet another learning expirence. As it has been unfolding I've learnt quite abit in regards to the Wyckoff principles. My understanding continues to grow. Posting the chart and analysis up helps to crystalize my thoughts, also feedback from other posters always helps.

Thanks all.
 
The Principle of The Composite Operator is central to why the other Principles exist and why they unfold...

Why ?


If we see the market ( for anything ) as like a pendulum we see that

IT SWINGS..... But for why and for who ?

note------>



The why and for who is The Composite operator..
This makes it so important that we identify accumulation and distribution
So we can be in harmony with these swings ( the biggest swings are bear and bull markets )...

imo A Wyckoff trader does not want to follow or fade... A Wyckoff trader trys to be in harmony...

When the CO is accumulating He can not wait for the swing down to stop
he has to buy on the way down.... That is why if we think we see a Selling climax... We have to ask was there preliminary support and why a Sign of strength should follow a test etc

The CO can not wait for the Buying Climax to sell . He has to start to sell on the way up.. So if We see a buying climax there should be preliminary supply
and after a test Signs of weakness.......



Anticipation is not the same as prediction..
We anticipate by identifying the technical position that is unfolding.
We observe accumulation and distribution
Principles of demand and supply things that are real

Because, "They" really cannot conceal their future intentions regarding it.

They have to accumulate or distribute ( Buy or Sell ) FIRST..

This is want is a CAUSE




So we see accumulation PS SC AR ST SOS LPS
We get in harmony we step out of the "egocentric predicament"
And seeing strength in weakness ( B% at 6.6% ! ) We do not fear

and when we see PSUPPLY BC ARc ST SOW LPsupply , seeing weakness in strength ( B% at 80% !) We do not hope...


file attached which shows a nice dynamic

Why and for who does the market Swing ?
Does it swing for YOU

motorway
 

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OK

think of that cycle of emotions

when looking at this chart
and note the postion of the B%

( remember the B% is the percent of stocks in the XAO which have found support, moved up made a test down and then moved above a point of resistance... demand and supply )

price has moved above the half way point ( a measure of the real relative strength )

My last comment was Strength is strength... price has moved higher on good volume ..Prices moved up and found supply..l A little congestion zone was encountered..

Look at the volume ... look at the range of the bars.. look at the volume ( fade ) look at where the closes of those bars where and look at what the B% was doing !

ABSORPTION ..

What is happening NOW

narrow range bar higher volume close in the middle

The thrust of this bar is shorter ( SOT )
Volume reveals that the good demand has met much more supply

look left .. what is there ?

So we have a turning point and a move back down ( maybe another secondary test ... or set up a Last point of support ? )

Or will demand again absorb this supply and after some "resting" move even higher

Price will always swing.. because the waves of buying and selling gather a following.... and these followings have a life cycle... early adopters to laggards

The last bar is not a NO DEMAND bar...

more later

Discussion

also the P&F
what does it suggest ?


motorway
 

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The P&F chart..is like a bell around the neck of the CO
and like a ball and chain around his ankle

No matter what the CO does

The P&F is always moving exactly the same


The move up from the congestion zone ( congestion zone = risk to what has been ... and a Cause for what will be )

Is a strong pattern ( one step back = absorption )

motorway
 

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