C = Current earnings per share. They must be up 18 to 20% or more.
A = Annual earnings. They should be up 25% or more in each of the last three years.
N = New. The company should either be under new management, have a new product, or have a new service. It should also have a new high for its stock price.
S = Shares of common stock Outstanding:Keep it small. The price of a common stock with 300 million shares outstanding is hard to budge up because of the large supply of stock available.
L = Leader or laggard? Within an industry, always choose the company that is leading the way, not one that is following in another's footsteps.
I = Institutional sponsorship. Make sure large mutual fund companies (and other institutions) are investing in your stock - you can ride on their capital. Also, focus on the better performing institutions buying your stock.
M = Market trends and market indices. Recognize the cup and handle pattern, as well as other market correction footprints. Know when a stock has peaked out. Also, buy stocks only when the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are going up.
The " Ten Vital Trends " Wyckoff 1920
Corporate
1 to financial strength or weakness ..........
2 of management ............ positive or negative
3 earning and dividend power......................up or down
4 to or from leadership in industry.............A leader or laggard
Trends of the Sector
5 of The Industrial Group..........
6 Of business in general ( esp money and interest rates ) ...
Technical....( Graham's Mr Market But instead of a suggestive anecdote ,, A method )
7 trend of Market...
8 trend of intermediate
9 trend of short term
10 accumulation distribution , trends of manipulation ..........
Ben ) Graham's association with ( Richard ) Wyckoff began in 1919. When he Submitted an article
entitled " Bargains in Bonds " to the Magazine of Wall Street and Quickly became a regular contributor.
Eventually Graham was offered the publication's chief editorship, with a generous salary and a sizable share of the profits. After considering the offer seriously ,he turned it down, perhaps influenced by the lure of a junior partnership that he received in 1920. Graham capitalized on his friendship with Wyckoff, however, to land his brother Victor a job in the periodical's advertising department.
Victor swiftly rose to head the department , then rode the crest of the Magazine of Wall Street's soaring circulation during the twenties. Advertising sales climbed and Victor prospered. Unfortunately ,he then fell in love with a young woman, whom he married in 1928.
Carrie (Ceclia G. ) Wyckoff was furious. According to Ben Graham, she had amorous designs on Victor, or hoped he would marry her younger sister, or both. Victor left her employ and embarked on a far less successful career in investment banking. Throughout it all, Ben remained on good terms with both Wyckoff's .....
From...
It Was a Very Good Year: Extraordinary Moments in Stock Market History
By Martin S. Fridson
Hey Motorway,
I have another question.
I think you mentioned that P+F charts and Wyckoff methods can be used to set a target. This would be good to learn.
Hypothetically, let's say last week (Monday) was a successful Secondary Test.
And I entered a long SPI position at 5100. (like many did!)
Where would the target(s) be according to P+F analysis? Or is this something you work out depending on what you see as the price goes up?
thanks again.
The law of cause and effect states that the excesses that develop in supply and demand are not random but are the result of key events in market action or the result of periods of preparation. Wyckoff teaches what these developments are and how to judge when they are unfolding in time to take advantage of the excesses in supply or demand that will follow.
http://www.wyckoffstockmarketinstitute.com/goal_article.htm
We have defined a Tape Reader as one who follows the immediate trend.
This means that he pursues the line of least resistance.
A mechanical engineer, given the weight of an object, the force of the blow that strikes it, and the element through which it must pass, can figure approximately how far the object will be driven.
So the Tape Reader, by gauging the impetus or the energy with which a stock starts and sustains a movement, decides whether it is likely to travel far enough to warrant his going with it - whether it will pay its expenses and remunerate him for his boldness.
When a stream breaks through a dam it goes into new territory. Likewise the breaking through of a stock is significant, because it means that the resistance has been overcome.
The stronger the resistance, the less likelihood of finding further obstacles in the immediate vicinity. Dams are not usually built one behind the other.
So when we find a stock emerging into a new field it is best to go with it, especially if, in breaking through it, it carries the rest of the market along.
These articles are directed at two audiences.
The first are those traders who are unfamiliar with
the Wyckoff method. While they may have read articles or books about Wyckoff or interacted with others who profess to be knowledgeable about the Wyckoff method, they have never embarked upon a step by step course of study intended to result in a working knowledge of the Wyckoff approach to technical trading in the stock market.
The other audience that can benefit from these
articles is the previously educated. These are traders and investors who have made a comprehensive study of the Wyckoff approach and who are endeavoring to employ it in their market operation.
http://www.wyckoffstockmarketinstitute.com/corner.htm
MENTAL STATE CONTROL
AND THE COMPOSITE OPERATOR
by H. O. Pruden, Ph.D
We gain some substantial degree of MENTAL STATE CONTROL/EMOTIONAL CONTROL if we train ourselves in the attitudes and actions of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR.
1. a. Wyckoff/SMI argue that "…rigid self-control is half the battle…"
b. Van K. Tharp concludes that investment success "…comes when the investor realizes that investment success does not come from external control, but from internal control."
2. a. Wyckoff/SMI counsel: "Until you can learn to trade and invest without hope or fear, you will not meet with all the success you should."
b. Van K. Tharp observes the "investment problems result from emotional states such as impatience; compulsiveness; anger; fear; being stuck; or depression…In fact, most investment problems that I can think of result from an inappropriate state of mind."
3. a. Wyckoff/SMI state: "…you must operate with no emotions whatever."
b. Van K. Tharp states: "Discipline is (mental) state control."
4. a. Wyckoff/SMI report that "…the qualities essential to the equipment of a speculator (and an investor), are: judgment, self-reliance, courage, prudence, and pliability. To these could be added another quality, patience."
b. Van K. Tharp concludes: "Achieving excellence usually occurs as a result of attaining states, such as confidence, that are appropriate…"
5. a. Wyckoff/SMI: "If you find you do not possess courage, self-reliance, patience, prudence, and pliability, cultivate those qualities."
b. Van K. Tharp: "What you really need is the ability to call upon that state at will and to maintain it."
6. a. Wyckoff/SMI: "…you must train yourself…Make a searching analysis of your own mental process."
b. Van K. Tharp: "My primary goal in this volume is to help you develop state control. Focus on what is going on within you instead of what is outside of you. Become aware of what is going on inside you. When you do, I think you will be amazed at what you discover."
7. Van K. Tharp: "State control is not that difficult. At least six major methods include:
8. Tharp: MODEL OTHER PEOPLE
Thinking about someone who can easily attain the state that you want also can help you change your experience.
9. The person you model may even be a FICTIONAL character in whole or in part.
Tharp:
You can even do this for a fantasy figure. Imagine a super investor. How would that person handle the situation that is bothering you? How would that person look? What would that person feel like? What state of mind would your super investor be in to deal with the situation confronting you? Again, get the answers to these questions and then role play.
10. Wyckoff/SMI provide us with just such a "fictional" SUPER TRADER: THE COMPOSITE MAN:
Composite Man
In studying, understanding, and interpreting market action, we consider all market action as a manufactured operation in which the buying and/or selling is sufficiently centered and coming from interests better informed than the generally untrained individual investor/speculator. The many large interests which do have an effect on the market place (trust companies, banks, mutual funds, investment trusts, investment companies, hedge funds, specialists, position brokers, etc.) are best thought of as the "Composite Man."
This Composite Man causes the market to act and react. Or, what actually happened is the market responds to the ageless, natural Law of Supply and Demand. The Composite Man and the effects of the Law of Supply and Demand are relay synonymous. It is the result of the motives, objectives, hopes, and fears of all the buyers and sellers whose actions produce the net effect upon the market.
Other terms which may be thought to be synonymous with the Composite Man would be the "Market", the "Sponsor", the "Operator", or "They". These terms are used interchangeably throughout the text. The selection of the terms is determined by what is most meaningful to the student. It should be your objective to think of the Composite Man as the primary force in the marketplace. Thinking of him in this light should enhance your analysis of the action resulting from the dominant groups operating within individual stocks and their total effect within the general market place.
11. Richard D. Wyckoff based the COMPOSITE MAN, and based his own trading philosophy, upon his observations and intimate understanding of such famous old-time professionals as James R. Keene, Russell Sage, Edward H. Harriman, and Jesse Livermore.
12. Indeed, Edwin Lefevre's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, which is based upon Jesse Livermore, is an excellent model of the COMPOSITE MAN or COMPOSITE OPERATOR.
13. Dubin examines how fictions enable decision makers to more adequately cope with the unknown.
Organization fictions are those fictions that are necessary in order that action within the formal organization may proceed.
14. The concept of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR serves a function similar to the role or organization fictions.
15. Playing the role of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR enables the market decision-maker to escape his/her "egocentric predicament".
There is no more serious error that a marketer can make than to allow himself to be caught in the "egocentric predicament". In the realm of philosophy, from which the expression is borrowed, the egocentric predicament simply describes the basic situation in which each one of us finds himself, namely, that he has to look at the world through his own eyes. In marketing, the implication of the phrase is that any seller who succumbs to the natural temptation to look at his problems solely from his own viewpoint and who does not make a conscious effort to overcome the natural limitations of his own outlook will indeed find himself in a predicament. Look at every problem from the standpoint of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR!
16. Overcoming the "egocentric predicament" by playing the role of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR automatically neutralizes the emotions by placing one is a dissociated position. Tharp notes that:
One of the biggest secrets of trading success is to remain cool, detached, and unemotional. Most traders who obtain and maintain that detachment do so by being dissociated. In other words, instead of actually experiencing the ups and downs of the market, they watch themselves having that experience. When Dick, the trader introduced in the opening story, became anxious, he moved to a dissociated position to observe himself. Other traders who undergo extreme emotional ups and downs as the market fluctuates go through those emotional swings because they remain associated. Simple dissociation is an effective way to neutralize your emotions.
17. Playing the role of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR forces us to reframe our perceptions. As Robbins explains, "…The meaning of any experience depends upon the frame we put around it. If you change the frame, the context, the meaning changes instantly. There are ways to see our biggest problems as our greatest opportunities -- if only we can step out of our trained patterns…If we change our frame of reference by looking at the same situation from a different point of view, we can change the way we respond in life. We can change our representation or perception about anything and in a moment change our states and behaviors. This is what reframing is all about."
18. By assuming the role of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR we can create dissociation and cause reframing. We will see market events differently; we will talk to ourselves about those events differently and in a different tone of voice, and we will feel differently about those events. As a consequence, our behaviors will more appropriately move us toward our objectives.
19. Wyckoff/SMI implore us to follow in the footsteps of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR -- to think like him and to act like him:
a. Like individuals, stocks have certain characteristics with which one becomes more and more familiar as he studies intensively their past and present movements. The market is made by the minds of men, and all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man's operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and plays the stock to his advantage. It's to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your advantage if you do understand it.
Not all of the Composite Man's moves can be detected. Not all of the moves are made by the Composite Man. In fact, it does not matter to the tape reader or the chart reader whether the moves are real or artificial, that is, the result of actual buying and selling by the public and long term investors or buying and selling by large traders. Most of the important trades in the market are prepared, executed, and concluded. It is our business to show you how a large number of these trading and investment opportunities may be spotted in time to take advantage of them.
b. The Composite Man carefully plans, executes, and concludes his campaigns.
c. A 'broad market' is created by the Composite Man advertising his stock on the ticker tape.
d. Study charts with the purpose of judging the behavior of the stock and the motives of those who dominate it.
e. To study charts, look for the motives behind the action which the chart portrays.
f. But, the market behaves naturally in this very manner. And, if you learn to understand this market behavior of a so-called Composite Man, you can learn to make judgements, then conclusions, which should have a positive effect in your stock market operations.
20. To attain the perspective of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR, we should ask ourselves such basic questions as: "What is the motive of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR?" and "What would I do if I were the COMPOSITE OPERATOR?"
21. In addition to the basic two queries about the COMPOSITE OPERATOR, we can add such complementary questions as: "What is it that the COMPOSITE OPERATOR is attempting to prepare or carry out or conclude?"; "What is the COMPOSITE OPERATOR attempting to do to the public and for what purpose?" As you gain understanding through practice with the role of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR, you'll want to add your own questions to the list.
REFERENCES
1. Brown, England and Matthews, Problems in Marketing
2. Robert Dubin, Human Relations in Administration
3. Edwin Lefevre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
5. Van K. Tharp, How to Develop Discipline to Become a More Successful Investor
6. Richard D. Wckoff, Wall Street Ventures and Adventures Through Forty Years
7. Wyckoff/SMI, The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique
The Link to this Pruden Article is not longer available
It was available for a significant period of time..
It is from ---> TSAA Newsletter August, 1995
I would refer always to the SMI-WYCKOFF original material
You are always getting a bit of someone else ( which does not mean it is not valuable ) When the material is from a second hand, and a different emphasis.
motorway included
motorway
Thanks a million motorway, that article has some very practical, and hopefully, very powerful advice. The psychology behind the techniques is very interesting and is worth adopting in a suitable manner.
The fact that you refer constantly, and in detail, to Wyckoff's original material is one distinguishing feature of your writing and explanation. It certainly allows readers to glimpse the core of his teachings and judge the material for themselves instead of just swallowing someone else's gloss or simplified interpretation of the course. I'm sure Wyckoff would have been proud of your efforts.
Thank you again for sharing your passion with us so freely in such a collegiate manner!
Strong day for the overall market and also a good day for SIP.
The ease of movement has very obvioulsy slowed since around July 07 - between points 5 - 7. The thrusts down have slowed considerably and the last thrust down has taken longer than the rest for not much new ground.
And look at the volume needed to push the price below $1.30. Effort & Result.
The next few days will give more insight into whether yesterdays high vol was demand or not but todays action seems to suggest it was.
This may not be the end of this current wave down as I would like to see a better rally than 1 day but the next rally and reaction will reveal more insight (character).
What I see atm is -
Slowing of momentum to the downside - shortening of thrusts (has yet to go up though)
The volume that has come in, has slowed the descent. Ease of movement - line of least resistence revealing itself?
Supply & Demand
Effort & Result
Cause & Effect
now this but... I think it is very good to be questioning of all moves down in this type of mkt
Really well put RichKid, second your sentiments.
I found the article excellent. A lot of 'psychology of trading' works I find simplistic and less than helpful.
16. Overcoming the "egocentric predicament" by playing the role of the COMPOSITE OPERATOR automatically neutralizes the emotions by placing one is a dissociated position. Tharp notes that:
now this but... I think it is very good to be questioning of all moves down in this type of mkt
The Selling climax maybe has in a sense failed
But in the context of the market has it failed or is the ending action just been extended and delayed ?
The volume at PS & SC was very large
The action from the SC volume subsided esp Dec Feb Mar
What was happening ?
Yes I think Your reverse trend line is justified
A reverse trend line needs a volume definition in one position
it is where the other side ( the reverse ) came in
Here it is demand !
So if you take the lower line of the reverse use
and the upper line of the normal use
What have you drawn ?
A valid APEX
The thrusts are not only making less ground
But the action is narrowing
My take on that would be that supply withdrew had been overcome
But where we could have expected a SOS we got very little
Did the Character of the market delay the appearance of demand ?
You can see the price drifts down with three rejections of lower prices
( like springs But these are in a down trend )
The stock is moving down with the market
But not being driven down with urgent supply
The stock is just sagging ( A RED FLAG at a TOP but at a BOTTOM ? )
This changes around the 20th mar..
( Supply will always turn up )
The last two bars tend to confirm buying..
BUT what are the buyers' time frames ?
Maybe much longer than yours?
What would tell us would be urgency..
A SOS ( Sign of Strength )
Note also the recent strength in the mkt
and the relative weakness in this stock
The Sellers reached down to the buyers
The last bar puts the positive case.
discussion
motorway
BUT what are the buyers' time frames ?
Maybe much longer than yours?
What would tell us would be urgency..
A SOS ( Sign of Strength )
This quote readily comes to mind with this stock atm.First they scare you out, then they bore you out, and then if they can they scare you out again.
The "Method" takes for granted:
That those who know more about it than the observer cannot conceal their future intentions regarding it. Their plans will be revealed in time by the stock's subsequent action.
Victor De Villiers, "The Point and Figure Method of Anticipating Stock Price Movements", Published 1933, pg 8
Stock Market and sector forces together typically cause 80% of the price movement in a stock. That means the company fundamentals usually account for less than 20% of a stock’s price movement. This is the reason a company’s stock price sometimes seems to move independently of the fundamentals!Source: “The Latent Statistical Structure of Securities Price Changes”Benjamin F. King
Most people, however, spend 80% of their time on stock evaluation and only 20% on sector and market evaluation. In other words, they ignore where the greatest amount of risk lies –the market and sector forces. Source: “The Latent Statistical Structure of Securities Price Changes”Benjamin F. King
Richard D. Wyckoff introduced the concept of the composite operator in the early 1900's, when pools
(manipulators) were in existence. These pools routinely worked with each other for the purpose of influencing
a particular stock.
It’s under these conditions that Wyckoff began to interpret all market action as a
manufactured operation, in which the buying and/or selling is sufficiently centered and is coming from
interests better informed than the generally untrained individual investor/speculator. (Pruden 1994)
These
big money players, in this case, the “elephants” (Central Banks, Investment banks, FX broker/dealers, Hedge
Funds and CTA/CPO types) exert an enormous amount of influence over the global currency market. In fact,
the methods of manipulation practiced by Richard D. Wyckoff and other old-time professionals, such as
James R. Keene and Jesse Livermore, are the same type of manipulations that are practiced globally in
today’s currency market.
These manipulations are often considered normal business activity, as they are
necessary for the proper functioning of the markets.
A recent article in the Economist told the story of Felicity Foresight, a woman gifted with the ability to see the future. Since 1900, Felicity invested one dollar (one time) and succeeded in picking the best performing investment class every year.
Today, she would be 110,000 times richer than Bill Gates (For those who are curious, she would have $9.6 quintillion - 96 followed by 17 zeros). It took her 55 years to become a millionaire and 86 years to become the first trillionaire. Over the last century, her incredible gift earned her a 55% average annual return. Even if we take away taxes and trading costs, she would still be worth $1.3 quadrillion (only 14 zeros).
Now lets take a look at Felicity's friend Henry Hindsight. Henry was different because he did not possess the ability to foresee the future. Henry had to resort to strategies much more typical of the average investor. Henry always picked the best performing investment class from the previous year. I call Henry the trend follower.
Unfortunately for poor Henry, his investment strategy led him to poor investment choices. Over the past 50 years, chasing last year's winners led to a loss approximately every other year. Henry's dollar in 1900 is now a mere $783 - a far stretch from Felicity's quintillions. As sad as this sounds, most investors think they can be Felicity Foresight but wind up being Henry Hindsight.
The proof is in the fact that last years winners always attract the most money from new investment dollars.
Anyone who buys or sells a stock, a bond or a commodity for profit is speculating if he employs
intelligent foresight. If he does not, he is gambling.
Richard D. Wyckoff, American pioneer in technical stock analysis.
Richard Wyckoff's first instruction to students of his stock analysis method published in the 1930s was
quite simple and specific””forget all the decision-making factors you ever used.
All you need to know is
in the table of stock prices and volumes in your daily newspaper.
With this back-to-basics approach, Wyckoff promised to show his students "the real rules of the game"
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