Backtesting Wyckoff Method

[tech/a]

In my view there is nothing remarkable about this chart
It is ranging within a down trend.
There are far better charts.

 

[Triple B]

Right.
Much better to have long term buying /demand helping out. add that to my rules
I will check out your charts of interest.
Also see I f I can find a better example.
Thanks

 

[rnr]

Right.
Much better to have long term buying /demand helping out. add that to my rules
I will check out your charts of interest.
Also see I f I can find a better example.
Thanks

Hi Triple B,

If you are still working on this project the charts attached may be candidates for consideration.

 

[Triple B]

View attachment 73147 View attachment 73148

Hi Triple B,

If you are still working on this project the charts attached may be candidates for consideration.

Thanks RnR.
I have been off reading more on re-accumulation , stepping stone re-accumulation and the trading range after a buying climax at the end of an uptrend.
Will have a look at those charts on my own platform as I need support and resistance lines to help me define trading range .
Will post up my first real trade too! very small cfd trade.
Back soon

 

[Triple B]

Lets look at SXY


Longer term 5 year sxy is coming up off a 5 year low of about 12c
The 200da MA show the general trend as slightly bullish over the last 2 years.
Paradise investments bought 5% between April and August
This is also within a period of accumulation between Aug 2015 - Aug20 17
We then see the big gap up on news of a new supply area being granted on 5sept then a good drilling report on 6 Sep , double good news after accumulation.
We see the current price approaching recent high of aprox 37c.
This is an important Resistance area .
If demand is met with strong supply we will see the price stall at 37c till supply is absorbed.
If supply is withheld we can expect large gap up bars with large spread as hungry buyers /Traders try to "get on the big bars" "



1 year daily
Big gap up with large vol indicates large demand[gap up] met with equally large probably profit taking supply[large vol].This maybe even paradise invesments cashing in!
Classic distribution.
Distribution continues for 4 days as large operators happily sell to hungry buyers taking large amounts of stock of their hands . All the way to the new support.
This is the AR or Automatic reaction.
The bulk of supply is distributed , then demand regains control for a few days . we see alternating days of supply and demand battle.
We then see demand taking over as supply is drying up . decreasing volume over the re accumulation can show decreasing supply ,especially if prices increase with diminishing supply.
We then see a large spread up thrust on medium vol.
This is a good sign incoming supply from big operators. Small fry are chasing the price up .
The bigger operators start unloading . we see in the 1 hour chart distribution taking place mostly at the two green arrows .
Supply starts to overcome demand on the 2nd green arrow.
The last bear bar is probably mainly smaller profit takers mixed with the remaining large distributors. we see at the last bar demand starting to overcome supply .

Day trading watchlist for sure . Cant wait to day trade.
I reckon if it breaks 37c might go for a big run as demand increases and large operators who have been accumulating over the last 2 years slowly feed the buyers pushing back up past 80c
I will get these post shorter eventually.

 

[Triple B]

My first Trade .small CFD
STO coming of near all time lows.Has been up to $18 !
Bought at $4.27 after a short re-accumulation. green arrow
Initial Stop was at $4.11. Then to $4.18[orange line]Will wait for close above $4.40 to place stop at Break even.
Starting out with less volatile stocks , with 5-10% margin, and keeping same again for margin calls.
ie 100% of required margin in free equity for each stock
Risking 8% of account per Trade! + $20 in out = 10 % risked per trade! + Finance costs ,about $1 Per night
High risk tolerance for this puny account.
As I put more $ in ,Risk will lower down to more sane levels,




STO

 

[Triple B]

2nd Trade
AWC
In at $2.36 Green arrow .
Put Overnight market order in ,Doh! then when I checked in on trade at lunch ,realised my mistake and put at market order on.
Initial stop $2.25 for 10% account risked. Now at Break even $2.36

 

[Triple B]

Then
ALL
In at $23.05
Ini Stop $22.25 for 8% risk
Stop now at $22.50
Test of recent all time high met with some supply
Constructive criticism welcomed

 

[Triathlete]

Then
ALL
In at $23.05
Ini Stop $22.25 for 8% risk
Stop now at $22.50
Test of recent all time high met with some supply
Constructive criticism welcomed
View attachment 73179

The only comment I would make is that you may have got in early. I would have waited until I saw a close above $23.98 on the weekly chart for it to continue higher towards $28-$30.
Of course we do not know what is going to happen next but the $24 level may be a resistance level for a few weeks.I like this stock and expect it to go higher......

 

[Triple B]

The only comment I would make is that you may have got in early. I would have waited until I saw a close above $23.98 on the weekly chart for it to continue higher towards $28-$30.
Of course we do not know what is going to happen next but the $24 level may be a resistance level for a few weeks.I like this stock and expect it to go higher......

Yep fair call.$ 24 may be the Hardest to break thru
May test my patience this one.
I did learn during paper trading to just be patient.
$23.32 is break even including costs




I expect a few days accumulation under $24 then stop loss /supply test before breakout.
Why? The only supply will be from Holders at lower prices. There is no holders at higher prices .
obviously.
ie no weak sellers [supply pressure]trying to get out of the stock they bought for double the price 2 years ago trying to get out with min damage for example.
The Big Accumulators know this. If they hold on to supply prices can mark up quicker.
There is strong buying pressure . up trend since April 2016


I suspect the BA will accumulate a few days more under $ 24
Maye push prices down for a day or 2 to catch the tight stops and clean those up
Watching for decreasing vol bars as supply from smaller sellers is absorbed by The big guys.
Watching for bear bar shakeout before upthrust.

Thanks for the comments

 

[tech/a]

I did learn during paper trading to just be patient.
$23.32 is break even including costs

Once at B/E you can have all the patience you need.

 

[Triple B]

OK Have STO At B/E inc Costs did that Mon Night
Then took CWY
AWC Stopped out at $2.34 for $42 Loss inc costs.
Cost myself $20 by moving stop down as I had day off work and was watching prices!! $ Lesson Learned.
Might Start a Trade Journal on ASF to help to keep me focused on plan. And get feedback ,.

 

[tech/a]

Move stops up NOT down.

You can always re enter!

 

[hja]

Move stops up NOT down.

You can always re enter!

Do you or anyone here use Weis Waves on your charts?

 

[tech/a]

A wave is going to be an oscillating average of some sort with perhaps a deviation
or so if its a multiple wave thingy.

Would be slow.
Do you have a chart or even better a formula?
What's it do?

Just googled it and will have a look when I have more time.
Looks interesting though.

 

[hja]

A wave is going to be an oscillating average of some sort with perhaps a deviation
or so if its a multiple wave thingy.

Would be slow.
Do you have a chart or even better a formula?
What's it do?

Just googled it and will have a look when I have more time.
Looks interesting though.

Measures the volumes of up waves and down waves that would be created at your discretion based on % of price change direction. The volumes get tallied for each of those legs so you can visually analyze the size and strength of each wave leg. So it's just volume and price, so no maths formulae or deviation dooverlackies! As an expirement, I was thinking of putting an exported CSV file of EOD data into Excel and superimposing that sort of Wyckoff Wave on to the daily chart.

 

[tech/a]

Measures the volumes of up waves and down waves that would be created at your discretion based on % of price change direction. The volumes get tallied for each of those legs so you can visually analyze the size and strength of each wave leg. So it's just volume and price, so no maths formulae or deviation dooverlackies! As an expirement, I was thinking of putting an exported CSV file of EOD data into Excel and superimposing that sort of Wyckoff Wave on to the daily chart.

Ive seen this before.
There is a book on it that has nothing to do with Wycoff.
Its Rare.
I have it at home.

One of the many things I want the geeks to code up in either Python or Amibroker.

 

[Triple B]

Gday Guys .

Wyckoff mentions in his Course book that if a strong trend retraces up to 50% I t can be expected to continue. The less retracement the stronger the resuming trend may be.
I am considering using Fibbonacci levels in my trading .
Never heard of weis waves. might already be an indicator out that does that exact thing under another name.
The closest thing I think to that book duck is the tradeguider software . now available as a plug in for NT.
not cheap and they have separated it into 3 separate plug ins I think , for extra $$$.

 

[hja]

Ive seen this before.
There is a book on it that has nothing to do with Wycoff.
Its Rare.
I have it at home.

One of the many things I want the geeks to code up in either Python or Amibroker.

View attachment 86361

Hi guys
Is it easy to bring EOD data into Excel from a CSV file, and use its chart draw to draw something decent with volume along the bottom?

 

[hja]

Gday Guys .

Wyckoff mentions in his Course book that if a strong trend retraces up to 50% I t can be expected to continue. The less retracement the stronger the resuming trend may be.
I am considering using Fibbonacci levels in my trading .
Never heard of weis waves. might already be an indicator out that does that exact thing under another name.
The closest thing I think to that book duck is the tradeguider software . now available as a plug in for NT.
not cheap and they have separated it into 3 separate plug ins I think , for extra $$$.

That's why I thought of just doing it in Excel. I mean considering big $$$ TradeGuider and plugin costs.