The transition to Futures trading

mr. jeff · 5 July 2013

Just so I am prepared - if :

NFP is bad = GOOD for markets due to more printing
NFP good = GOOD for markets due to stronger market

kid hustlr · 5 July 2013

mr. jeff said:
Just so I am prepared - if :

NFP is bad = GOOD for markets due to more printing
NFP good = GOOD for markets due to stronger market

Not sure anyone knows what's going at this stage.

Just as a follow up to my post a few hours ago, im not sure I'll get either set up. I have the sell stop in place ready to sell it if we break but I don't think I'll buy if it bounces out. Doesn't look to have any buying momentum at all and the RSI made a lower low suggest there's no real divergences (which I agree with after looking at the chart). Most likely we will just grind around here until NFP. Should have gone to the pub!

pavilion103 · 5 July 2013

CanOz said:
http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar

Todays news...

Is the time of the announcement the local time (I.e the country that is announcing it?)

I saw the NFP is 12:30 in US. What time is that tonight?

pavilion103 · 5 July 2013

Is this around 2am?

kid hustlr · 5 July 2013

NFP is 10.30pm our time.

theres a setting on the website which lets you set it to your time zone

boofis · 5 July 2013

pavilion103 said:
Is this around 2am?

http://www.forexfactory.com/ and then just set your local time

skc · 5 July 2013

mr. jeff said:
Just so I am prepared - if :

NFP is bad = GOOD for markets due to more printing
NFP good = GOOD for markets due to stronger market

NFP is bad = BAD for markets as economy is crap.

NFP is good = BAD for markets as tapering will start sooner.

There's probabl a sweet spot there that's somewhat strong NFP, but not too strong. But really the market pretty much makes up its mind as it pleases.

pavilion103 · 5 July 2013

What happens when there is big news like this?

Does everyone stalk the market and set buy/sell stops and hope they get taken on a big move? Or do people stay well clear?

If there was a tight range setup prior then it would be worth it wouldn't it? Say a 15 point risk for potentially many points? (I know I've made some assumptions here)

Am I missing something?

pavilion103 · 5 July 2013

Do people on here listen live to the announcements?
If so what site is good for it?

tech/a · 5 July 2013

pavilion103 said:
Do people on here listen live to the announcements?
If so what site is good for it?

Most will be factored into price before the announcement.
Shock moves only really occur if the news is at right angles to expectation.

boofis · 5 July 2013

pavilion103 said:
What happens when there is big news like this?

Does everyone stalk the market and set buy/sell stops and hope they get taken on a big move? Or do people stay well clear?

If there was a tight range setup prior then it would be worth it wouldn't it? Say a 15 point risk for potentially many points? (I know I've made some assumptions here)

Am I missing something?

Generally, the market thins hugely, on instruments where there is usually 1000 on each bid/ask you might see 100 and in some cases only a handful of contracts. And usually big moves follow.

skc · 5 July 2013

pavilion103 said:
What happens when there is big news like this?

Does everyone stalk the market and set buy/sell stops and hope they get taken on a big move? Or do people stay well clear?

If there was a tight range setup prior then it would be worth it wouldn't it? Say a 15 point risk for potentially many points? (I know I've made some assumptions here)

Am I missing something?

I'd suggest watching a big announcement first before trading it. What you might / will find is that...

1. Tight range before the announcement.
2. Order book thins out and the spread widens significantly before the announcement.
3. Potential false move each way minutes/seconds before the announcement to trigger buy/sell stops like what you are thinking of doing, and whip it back the other way just as quickly. You'd lose 15pts before you blink.
4. Initial reaction is often wrong.
5. Initial reaction, even if right, would retrace to offer lower risk entry a few bars later.
6. Your latency might increase substantially around the announcement.

So.. watch, learn, do. In that order.

pavilion103 said:
Do people on here listen live to the announcements?
If so what site is good for it?

Your best bet for free stuff might actually be twitter.

But if you want to trade the wild action immediately after the announcement - you need to watch the ladder rather than read the news.

kid hustlr · 5 July 2013

I'd sit it out Pav to be honest. I know for a fact the treasuries get HUGELY thin and I assume most equity markets are the same. If you're experienced thers definitely plays to be made but it can get super wild.

As an aside, your idea about setting stops above and below isn't the worst idea but its still palying with fire as crazy things can happen (whip up then whip back or sometimes guys go stop hunting just before the news). It varies from market to market but until you know the FTSE reacts post big data I'd sit on your hands.

skc · 5 July 2013

tech/a said:
Most will be factored into price before the announcement.
Shock moves only really occur if the news is at right angles to expectation.

The exact data cannot always be factored into the price. Often, the price will factor in the probability of certain announcement (e.g. 33% chance of a rate cut), and when the announcement comes out it moves to the actual data + whatever towards the next forward looking point.

So (relatively) large moves don't always need news to be completely out of expectation.

Trembling Hand · 5 July 2013

tech/a said:
Most will be factored into price before the announcement.
Shock moves only really occur if the news is at right angles to expectation.

Gee i don't know about that. Pretty much everyone of the traders you try and track with VSA game the news setups all week long.

I wouldn't take news ann lightly.

tech/a · 5 July 2013

Trembling Hand said:
Gee i don't know about that. Pretty much everyone of the traders you try and track with VSA game the news setups all week long.

I wouldn't take news ann lightly.

Yeh I'd agree.
But my own personal findings are that most of the VSA hype around news is fading that news.
Both good and bad.
I don't need to explain trading methods of news to you.
I'm not saying ignore news but I am saying unless it's un expected it's probably factored in price.
If the news is ho hum then over reaction in price will often see any over enthusiasm long or short corrected.

So for me it's not news in isolation but the perception before and after.
You'll see that in price.
Just another chapter in the book.

kid hustlr · 5 July 2013

Thin trade + pre NFP gitters equals big ranges in the US treasuries. this is the 10 year. found the break out and then it ripped all the way back up in the blink of an eye.

pavilion103 · 5 July 2013

Well that was an interesting experience

kid hustlr · 8 July 2013

Another week, another opportunity. No any huge data out tonight that I can see.

Tech, any chance you can help me with my queries in the picture below?

pavilion103 · 8 July 2013

Nothing exciting me at the moment. I'm on the sidelines. I can't ascertain a clear trend.

The transition to Futures trading

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