The top of this cycle for ASX 200, cash is king?

[kahuna1]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Howdy,

Just couldn't sleep .... and then the phone calls :}

I am still in the process of transition for myself.

It takes time and becoming a fund manager as such .

This for me is a cycle as I have been speaking about for many years on this thread.

Some of the things I talked about happening latter this year .... and my suspicion we rallied off decent economic numbers and the fact the US fed would not and could not raise rates have already peculated to the surface. My suspicion we rallied and basically ended 2010 at the same point or 4,700 by the end of the year an going up into the 5,000 plus region before falling back is not how the month of January or even February is shaping up. My concerns about a stubborn and elevated US unemployment number already on the front of everyones mind with the numbers last night and the reaction of a weaker unemployment number sending the Us market into a tailspin.

Still for me not a thing has changed for the outlook for 2010 and Obama is hamstrung between this crushing employment or unemployment numbers and falling ratings . He cant do much and his proposal to reverse the Bush tax cuts a positive one and reduces the US deficit longer term or the rate of increase ... buried in that tax hike was massive spending coming over the course of the next few years to bring things back into balance so on one hand he took 400 billion a year then spent half of it on hopefully creating jobs. Not a perfect outcome but overall positive longer term and coupled with the US not about to change rates anytime in 2010 the supports for the market despite todays drubbing are there. One cant argue with zero point zero zero rates !!

Debt and debt problems are something I have covered here for some time and this step by Obama and some other nations whilst the first step they are positive to get this problem back into the box before it all explodes.

Right now a hell of a lot of noise and its just noise and idiotic noise around about various things. A few months ago it was Dubai and its debt problems it was over in the blink of an eye. Up pops another pimple and its on the tips of everyones tongue. Seriously after 27 years out there its with amazement I watch these things at times unfold. Dubai was something of the order of 70 billion in debt and the current problem child is bigger ... yes much bigger so yes some attention should be spent there but lets get it into perspective ... its 300 billion and Greece is part of the EU and has been since 2001 .... as such its nice to try and separate it but they cant and with a mere 11 million or so vs 328 million in the rest suggesting a pimple can kill it or even derail it is absurd.

For the record 16 countries use the Euro and suggesting if say Australia twice the size of the USA vs Greece got into trouble would bring them down or give them much pause is what is being suggested by some now :}
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone

Cycles and more cycles within more cycles and the market looking at pimples is sometimes amusing.

Nothing new.

Nothing at all new .... other than the short term sentiment and end of the world view being touted right now.

What is different is that we just had one of the worst corrections of the last 60 years and this have given credibility to the downside and risks of the downside and as such credibility is being given where I suspect in the past not much would be given. As I mentioned I suspect the next 10-20 years will involve minefields like this which will be interesting and very hard to navigate even for those who believe they have been around the block a few times.

I take out of these recent times the fact the USA is going to reverse the tax cuts for the very rich. About time !! they then will reduce their budget deficit somewhat all be it increasing at this stage at a slower projected rate. They have announced increased spending to stimulate things again a positive. And the US fed is not going to act at least in 2010 I suspect. On top of this China yet again strong as 20 men and Asia outside Japan much unchanged.

The rest of it is noise ... all be it very loud noise but the next time I have some expert suggest Greece has the ability to anything other than make a decent Slovakia ... will make me scream.

Cycles and what cycles are is taking advantage of these moves in sentiment and values.

Having been around funds management and trading for 27 years and outside of being a trader of a bank its always been a committee which decides the course of most funds with a few exceptions its always amazing the decisions that go on behind closed doors and some of the idiotic courses of action people take .....

When I went bearish late 2007 and we stood at 6,750 and I did share this view very clearly this was not a small cycle of short term one we were entering but a long one and the chance of a substantial destruction of capital was the likely outcome its always done with some things in the background when I make these calls.

Continued ....

 

[kahuna1]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Whhops too long ... read other post first !!!


At the time I suspected given the severity of what was happening was not evident to most at the time I suspected the actual fair value of the ASX 200 was around 5,000 vs the market being at 6,750 so it was in effect trading at a massive premium to fair value. My own fair value was higher than this in months preceding this change of view but as more and more legs fell off the chair the fair value I had in my own head tumbled from 5,750 and the market only being 15-17% overvalued to 5,000 and it being a whopping 35% over the top. MY own reasoning behind this was clear as to why my fair value went down a lot ... the harder I looked at the likes of Babcock's and others the more evident was the rubber accounting and extreme debt levels ... US fudging GDP and CPI numbers ... ect ect

Anyhow ... doesn't matter why ... but as with anything we were just merely over extended at 15% or so over the top but at 30% ... its extreme ... and when we fell to 3,500 my comment coming back to this was we had gone from one extreme of being way overvalue to at 3,500- being the other side of value. The underlying value move on my own understanding of things had not moved this much ever ... in so short a period ... for an index overall and the reasons are now history and I was correct adjusting my line in the sand down and as the bodies piled up it was proven correct.

Now we are 2 1/2 years latter and lots of too and fro between ... the fair value at least for me in the market is HIGHER not lower than it was 2 years ago ... I had already accounted for the GFC before it happened and acted accordingly.

Cycles and this is the market cycle .... so right now I suspect fair value is at 5,300 vs a likely 4,500 level ... so whilst not wildly undervalue its not far away. That I see not much changing the underlying value and increasing value WHATEVER happens in 2010 and suspect the fair value will be 5,500 or more buying something at a 20% discount is always a pleasure. Given the predominance for the markets to trade at 20% the other side of fair value for the past 20 years its even a better deal. I dont suspect we go the other side of my own line for 2-3 years but it will happen at some stage .

This is the market cycle.

Now take this cycle and then apply the same principal to individual stocks. Each has its own cycle and its own value. Not talking penny dreadfuls and lets use the example of say CBA ... go back to 1990 it was floated at $4- and paid a 6% dividend fully franked. Lets wind forward 20 years and CBA still only pays a 6% dividend and as such your the same off ... NOT.

If you have been set up and reinvested using the franking credits and basically your compound your returns the return .... was and is .... you would have 2.5 times the amount of stock you owned in 1990 . Sure it still pays 6% ... inflation would mean you would need 2.2 times what you had back then .... to be even ... so $2,000 would need to be $4,400- right now inflation adjusted ... having done the exact sums the actual return the other day was you had 2.625 times your original shares and the $2,000 - would be $56,700- exactly in 2010. In other words you would be 12.9 times better off than inflation.

Now I want you to get a chart and slowly draw a line from the issue price of $4- in 1990 and leave it say at $48- right now ... I suspect its trading over the fair value by that much vs the $53- or $54- we have right now.

Now do you notice something .... I talk about cycles .... try to teach cycles and get people to tune the rubbish out ..... the share price of CBA has vastly moved around this basic fair value line. CBA yes has had some ups and downs ... but the fact that the tech sector went boom then bust had ZERO to do with them ... the previous S+L crisis in the early 1990's had little to do with CBA .... or did 911 ... it didn't change the profits of CBA much.

Now add the two together .... going more definsive when the market cycle dictates and gets too expensive and then selling when CBA or any other stock hands you a 20% or 30% over fair value .... and then buying when the opposite occurs. Gee the low of recent times for our banks vs where we are right now seems silly.

If you add the two cycles together and are in a tax effective structure over time it really doesn't matter what the hell happens to the market. If you exited a lot or even half your CBA at the peak in 2007 and put it into a defensive stock paying a massive dividend say like TLS which only fell 15-20% at its worst and then with dividend you were only down 10% and then switched back into things that were at discounts of 30/40/50% to fair value ... meaning they were HALF price and in other words if they went to fair value it meant 100% profits ... you get my whole dedication to this thread and style over the years.

Problem is I can really teach either of the styles and certainly over the years sometimes on individual stocks ones assumptions on fair value prove incorrect ... but thats where diversification and being a bloody scab come in.

As many know I am a fair analyst :} I love value and stories with 3/4/5/6 things in their favour are my passion ... if only two come out to be correct each are worth 20-30% each even if the rest dont happen.

Now go back to the example about CBA and sell 35% when it goes 25% over that line in the sand and then reinvest it when it goes 25% below that line in the sand drawing the fair value from $4- back in 1990 to say $48- right now. The answer whilst a great result just investing and reinvesting the dividend and you returned 12.9 times more than inflation for the past 20 years .... a conservative approach going this way and just flicking 35% of your holding in and out and in and out ..... the result is not 12.9 times not 25 times ... how about 40 times :} CBA is not a great example even ... and taking 35% of your holdings off the table at extremes is conservative !!! Try it at 50% or 66% and the outcomes are fascinating.

Of course this comes down to being able to pick not only market cycles but correctly value the underlying share. It sounds easy but its far from it ... a very very long way from it.

With 2,000 plus shares on the ASX and I suppose 100 decent ones out of that to choose from and applying this sort of principal to the whole structure only entering when it hurts and whilst at times swimming under water only entering when the value hurts and then being totally disciplined and exiting to some extent when the converse occurs is what cycles and investing for me is all about.

An ability to totally tune out noise and stick with ones convictions overall is not many are suited to.

For me its my life and has been for 27 years .... I make no bones about the costs at times being stuck to a market screen has cost but along the way its been a great life either way. One has a few loves in ones life and passions and this one is mine.

better run US market getting crushed and its the end of the world.

If you do anything ... identify quality .... then value ... then fair value of shares. Forget the rubbish or get rich schemes ... if you buy quality at a vast discount but maintain a perspective and ability to let some of the quality to go when they are willing to pay your 125% for something you payed 75% for .... do this over 20/30/40 stocks and have 50-60 pets which will change over time but their will be a core of 20-30 of them and as the market falls out of love with sectors and decides its willing to pay an 18 P/E for one sector and only an 9 for the other ... the choice is not a hard one to make as to what is more value ?

Stay cool

Mark

 

[kahuna1]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Part 2

Still lots of negatives out there and I am personally concerned about a lot of them as I have shared with readers over the years. Biggest one is I suppose the commercial real estate side and this needs and suspect will be addressed over time especially in the EU and USA but with banks being handed profits like never before to repair this mess I suspect the next 18 months will self repair some of these holes. Bottom line is the EU and BOE and US fed clearly have ALL signalled there will be NO CHANGE to the state of affairs. Clearly China is strong as 20 men again and their GDP number was 2% higher than what was expected less than 6 months ago and 1% higher than expected 3 months ago ... So of course they are going to tighten. US is actually taking small steps to get their fiscal mess into order. Small but positive ones and reversing the Bush idiocy of tax cuts for the rich was and is step one.

This said one never knows and for me its pretty simple. Buying something of quality and getting a franking credit on a 12% plus dividend and the simple equation is we are being handed a massive premium to take on some risk here. Buying with this and the credit would have to equate to the market being 15% lower in 58 weeks time for me to even be behind.

Nothing changes only the cycles and the market is obviously still extremely nervous but not sure about what. The noise out there has been deafening but to me its been cries of wolf wolf wolf. If they had been wheeling out some of the yet to be seen commercial property loans I might have listened but this too will pass as the commercial banks of USA and EU already are making massive allowances for bad and doubtful debts against expected write-downs and two quarters from now they will have pretty much covered themselves against even this. Amazing what zero % rates can do to a banks balance sheet.

Fiscal side some of my fears about what would happen latter in 2010 as they realised the mess they were in and had to take action to cut spending and raise taxes has come to the forefront earlier than I expected but so to has some of the positives I didn't expect till latter in the year and with this I mean the eventual bouncing back of economies which hit bedrock during late 2008 and early 2009. Clearly their are signs of life and whilst one is a negative short term the fiscal taps being turned off the reality is its reducing one of my longer term storm clouds over the market for the 2010 and beyond period. For me its actually a positive overall not as the market has reacted a negative. When they announced they were going to reign in banks trading activities overseas in riskier areas I thought about it and went its not a negative but a longer term positive. Banks will split off their trading arms and shareholders will get shares in vanilla bank and then shares in investment trading bank and the sum total of the value I suspect is a lot more than the values right now. This is for US banks not ours. US banks and their prices are still near bedrock levels and splitting off two arms one which is semi toxic and then other is a money making machine eventually will sink into peoples perceptions the investment arm is about 20% of the equation and when split the vanilla bank likely will rise to the full 100% level in short order since when spilt it will smell like a rose.

Enough ....

Still a week or two away from my last post. Suspect this was the low if it wasn't golly gee what value is being handed out down here. I do just love 3 dividends in 57 weeks and 12% fully franked and an effective 17% after franking credits vs a 6% equiv for the bank deposits. Once a few of them have reported it should actually sink in. If they are expecting something bad maybe they should not our employment situation went sour for only a few months and then reversed back as opposed to say the USA where it doubled and still remains double what it was.

Take care

Mark

 

[kahuna1]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Howdy,

Well my cycle of posting on sites like this is almost at an end and as such draws even closer to the conclusion. I was expecting it to be over by now but as per normal ... Paperwork is heaven and transforming oneself into a stand alone fund or someone who is going to take on individually managed accounts and getting the accreditation is something that takes time. Its almost over thankfully and drawing to a conclusion. Sat a big exam yesterday and got through it, have to say if I had just studied the course notes however I would not have even passed. Thankfully I am what I have claimed to be and it made me think and draw on the experiences learnt over the last 27 years. Have to admit I was nervous prior to the exam and when I was reading the exam I didn't have time to think or reflect. After the exam and it being marked straight away it was somewhat amazing to compare the test exams against what they actually gave me. It was about three times harder and I suppose that's one of the joys of working for a group that makes all advisors actually be registered with ASIC in their own name as opposed to other ones which rely on the parents AFSL instead.

Enough about that .... Cycles and I am sure there is no one in charge any more at the helm given the ride and rubbish we have seen the last few weeks. One down day followed by another and another and then yet another. Technically as I sometimes revert to at times like this the support levels for the ASX 200 were tested but not broken. The first at 4,600 was breached and well smashed the next one which I suspected we stopped at all along was played with time and time again and that was the 4,500 on the ASX 200 level. Below that as I mentioned a few posts ago there was and is beyond this massive support yet another at 4,340 which is 3% lower and I suspected whilst we might test the 4,500 this second level below was not really an option.

Of course remains to be seen if this was it, the low and we have been waffling with this 4,500 level for a while and whilst technical are nice they are for me just one small part of the puzzle. Macro's and the big wide world or economics out there the second part of the puzzle and added to that is the underlying fundamentals and then sentiment.

Sentiment is what sent us down into hell nothing more. After such a stellar run off the lows and for the USA recovering over 50% of the losses from the low vs the high and for our market nearly the same result .... It was time for a correction. What I suspect is as time goes on the old bear wagon is rolled out time and time again over the course of coming years and these periodic corrections actually get worse in their scope whilst not changing the overall and clearly set course of the market.

This time it was based on what ? Greece ? You must be kidding as I said all they are good for is making souvlakia and as someone now being bombarded by news every days it more a matter of tuning out noise than ever. As many know I tended NOT to read newspapers other than once or twice a week because the amount of noise and irrelevant noise created in them is astounding. So we were worried about debt from the EU. As previously mentioned the Greeks are a whopping 2% by value of the EU economy and suggesting they could cause problems is akin to suggesting a pimple on your behind can do the same. Even the rest of the aptly named pigs ... All of them added together made 15% or the whole EU equation and as such unlikely in the extreme to be a problem because Greece is 3 times worse than any of the others in terms of threats and was and has been always a problem child in the EU. But down they dragged the market.

If I stand back I commented during the Dubai thing that 60 billion or 80 billion was involved and sent the markets into a tailspin the bottom line was clearly a pin prick on the whole equation and the total macro scheme. Having had success in drawing the market down, like the little children the market is at times and driven by media reports now predicting the end of the world the lesson learnt last time that this was and is irrelevant ... They embarked on debt problem number two and out comes the media bombarding everyone's perception on things.

If you cast your mind back to the GFC and its mayhem visited upon most it was a case of the opposite and very few voices at the top calling it an actual top ... And then it was a case of the media being totally wrong and wheeling out bears and idiotic bears who had been calling the ASX 200 down from 2,000 when it peaked at 6,853 and giving them credibility by saying yes mate you were right. How funny this is. Makes my stomach churn to see some of the economists who called the ASX up in 2008 to 7,200-7,300 still regularly on the media expousing their views. During the GFC very few were right about the scope or calling the actual tops or the bottoms. I came close but as I said at the start with 24 years of experience at the time its not possible to accurately call these cascades and my initial call of 4,300 by the end of 2008 was revised as the year plodded on downwards ..... But still the eventual ending point of 3,750 ish was a bit below my revised target.

All an aside, trying to predict the future is how I go about investing and buying things for value and my favourite is paying 75% or less of value for a massive company or for the smaller ones lowering the boom the smaller and less diversified they are works for me.

Right now we are on the cusp of reporting season and the ASX 200 dominated by financials the first big cab off the rank is CBA. Market yesterday had its willies and drove some of the banks down over 2% during the day. Have to say it was amusing and amusing in the extreme to be handed that sort of value right now. Simple reasoning behind why we are about to be a jack in the box I suspect over the course of the next few weeks has little to do with the actual results but more about knowing the market. I doubt the results of any of the banks will be too far out of line with expectations. If arm twisted I suspect they are if anything better rather than worse than the expected. All a big aside for a simple reason. One which will drive the market for the next 6-8 weeks over all else. Banks are about to report a lot of companies are about to report and declare dividends. These big fat juicy dividends as I keep mentioning are massive especially after the drubbing we just got in the market down here. Sorry rambling the bottom line is buying a bank or one of these monsters reporting in the next few weeks will get you over the next 54-57 weeks not one dividend or two but three separate dividends and if I look at the banks and the spanking some just got at over 10% from their peaks and then look at the expected and very likely dividends ..... The equation and what they just did makes little sense.

As per normal I can only conclude there is no one at the helm of the market and its as per normal being driven by some computer chip rather than the lumps of meat we all have on our shoulders. Taking three dividends over the course of just over 12 months and them being fully franked and each of them at 4% or so adds up to 12% for holding the 12 months. Add to that franking credits and they can take the 6% they are offering via a deposit and whistle. After credits its 17% vs 6% when I compare them.

Simple stuff but lost in the sheer panic of the last few days and weeks. When I heard one bear who was talking when the ASX hit 2000 in 2002 we went back to 1,000 and same for every step along the way the same come out last week and talk about an imminent crash back to 3,850 or so I looked at the market and this little fact about to happen the next few weeks and went gee I hope he is right for the first time in a decade :}

 

[kahuna1]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Part 2

Nothing changes .... always some reason for us not to buy ... and when it goes up ... even twice as many reasons not to sell ... from tax issues to the usual ... its going higher .... little secret not so well known one of mine is that every stock has a 30-40% range in a year and whilst sometimes I miss some of the upside on stocks I cut down or exit ... its all besides the point if I buy a stock for 50 cents because I think its worth a dollar ... time goes on and their business goes up and the underlying value goes to $1.50 then $2.00 ... eventually it tends to become a fad if you wait around long enough and your stock you purchased for 50 cents and is now worth $2- fair value eventually trades at $2.50 or $2.60. Essentially you get 5 times or so value ...

I can hear all the noise out there at the moment about the end of the world and have to stand back and laugh .... and sadly make me cry ....

If a company has been making EPS increases of 8% every year for the past two decades and is well run and is likely to continue to do it for another 20 years .... every 8 years the underlying value of the company will double so at the end of 20 years it should be worth 5 times its value today ... buying it at 50% of the value today when its going to essentially be worth 10 times what it is today in 20 years is the real and only way to build wealth. identifying these companies is not that hard ... identifying where its value a bit harder .... identifying where the overall market has placed valuations even harder .... none of it however is rocket science for an old fart like me. It is however crucial you dont pay over the odds for any of the factors because if you pay 125% for the value and 125% on the overall markets value ... it will make the risk reward ratios look like they should ... BAD.

If you think we are overvalued on the general market right now ... the ASX 200 ... at 4,500 vs a recent high which was about 30% higher than my own value and the levels right now are 40% off the peak I would love to hear the reasoning behind it since overall the dividends and state of affairs here is better ... not worse than it was 3 years ago. this is the market cycle ...

As for individual shares and their actual values ... I can argue till I am blue in the face about what is and isn't value right here ... one cant prove an opinion until that opinion has either been proven right or wrong over time. I will say this ... of the 70 stocks listed on the ASX 200 that interest me a lot right now ... some extreme value others middle and others even in the higher risk end ... of the 300 stocks talked about on this site and another site over the week I believe only 15 of the 70 even rated a mention. Nothing unusual in this .... one of my pets an ultra high risk spec which I loved and performed better than PDN for many years is now an ASX 200 stock having gone up 50 fold in 5 years and I doubt there are 50 posts on any chat site in the country. not talking about these stocks when I am thinking of value and exceptional value .... a portfolio of 15-20 of these things some boring but paying exceptional dividends ... others mid growth ... others with discounts to NTA of 35-40% but paying dividends of 9% plus paying off 10% of their debt a year ...interest me .... not for the flash in the pan of betting 10k on a horse and see if it wins the Melbourne cup but lower risks overall and if paying 50-60 cents in the dollar is not attractive to you ... when the $1- is likely to grow boringly but with lower risks towards the $1.50 and then $2- level over the next 5-10 years I suppose you should actually go and take your money to the horses and have a bet.

Enough .... sorry bit tired of such negativity in the press.

If I take boring old TLS and go gee whilst not a great fan of them ... at $3.10 and a fully franked 8% yield if I was to actually go and buy a warrant for them and take the risk .... paying half of that in interest so a negative 4% that I can claim on my tax ... on the other side getting twice as many shares and 8% times two .... 16% dividend .... all fully franked .... and if I did it now and got three dividends over the next 57 weeks .... do the sums and get back to me as to what the price has to be in 57 weeks .... in 3 years assuming they pay at the same rate and I suspect its a forgone conclusion they can actually keep paying at this rate ... if I used an instalment warrant and self funding one where the dividends were payed down off the amount owing ... and I just used the credits from the interest on the borrowing I was using and then the franking credit on being paid 16% per annum hmmm ... 4% for the interest ... another 5% tax credit by dividend imputation and at the same time net paying down 12% per annum off the amount owing ... hmmm let me see ... 3 years = 36% plus another 15% via tax deductions to be applied against income or returned to you in the case ....

Ideas and ideas like this are not suited to everyone ... but the difference between using McDonald's for investment advice or the Telegraph and using someone who can steer you into something like this is what your investment advisor should be taking you into ... TLS is not that great I know and understand the risks but try the same on other very uninteresting and boring stocks out there such as some of the banks ANZ or NAB ... or QBE or WOW or a list of others and you may appreciate where I am coming from in my frustration as to the current mania about the end of the world.

Sorry .... not suggesting this play for anyone ... just an example .... instead of putting 100% into TLS put the other half into a bank deposit for 3 years at 6.5% ... franking credits will well and truly pay for the tax owing on the 50% side and in the end you have 20% more cash on the investment side of the equation ... all tax free ... it makes the risk reward equation even more robust.

Of course if the world ends and we go back to where we were ... on paper the shares might actually fall 20% .... so what ... if you expect them to stay there over time with a yield of 10% plus ... its an interesting view .... not one I agree with but the difference between talking to someone honest and knows what they are doing and is only prepared to be a scab in regards to risk and going to ask some McDonald's employee as most of the people who now inhabit banks are in reality is quite quite different.

Sorry just thought I would share some of the reasoning behind my view as to value and why ... same for many of them out there to lessor degree's .... not something you will ever hear off your banker ... or insurance agent ... even worse an accountant who in reality has no idea about where things are going yet gets asked all the time for advice but .... what does he know ? Lawyers .. the same ...

Find someone who you can trust ... explains the risks to you ... the costs will not be cheap as your paying for a service plus advice and if you pay 1% to make 10% ... your still miles ahead. Instead most go into their friendly expert and are sold a heap of rubbish with massive fee's and performance and advice that doesn't happen once they have got your money. Go to your accountant and he will likely go gee I think you should wait ... well in that he is telling you the market is going down and he knows it ... even me who can call these things very well cannot definitely tell you this ....

My own journey will end very soon for posting on these sites and as opposed to advising the big end of town ... large funds or banks I go and do it for the other end of town. It got too much for me being a part of a very large machine and going this is going up and why are we selling ?? ... or worse its going down its a ponzi scheme ... why are we buying using our investors funds ... the sad reality at the top is they dont care ... pay me your 1.5-2.5% to manage your funds every year and we will just buy everything irrespective of value. Being a value and growth investor with one eye on the Macros .... and working for McDonald's who didn't give a hoot about individuals or even large groups of investors .... what a waste of 27 years!!! I am home finally ....

On China ... I note and accept your views about them .... I would point out that as opposed to Japan and what happened to it ... China actually is investing overseas to ensure its raw material supply for the next few decades unless one missed the fact that every second development here is backed either by China or some other Asian giant. Quite different from the absurdities of the Japanese market in the 1980's which saw their stock market triple in short order and the value of the imperial palace in Tokyo the 40 hectares of it was worth at the peak ? more than every piece of land in California.

Many miss this ... China's actually investing outside its borders in fairly serious ways and whilst not as massive as it could be the 100 billion or so pledged in Australia for projects is 10% of our GDP and add this to double this number invested around the globe in other projects I cannot compare Japan in the 1980's to China right now.

Better run ... just awaiting more paper work and then my journey will be over.

take care

Mark

 

[kahuna1]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Forget everything .....

Forget every negative you can think of ....

Put a value on what you call fair value of the market overall. I have and do ... it changes over time usually upwards but for once or twice in the past 30 years my perceptions changed and I put the level or fair value down. right now my own fair value overall is 5,350 for the ASX 200 .... at one stage it was higher back in 2007 but clearly seeing the signs and asset prices were not realistic I put my own fair value down a lot .... from 5,700 to 5,000 and when the market was trading at 6,853 ... vs 5,700 it was less than 20 % over valued ... different story at 5,000 vs 6,850 .... it was way way overvalued. Right now at this point in time ... I believe its about 20% if not more undervalued ... on individual stocks its not hard for me to pick out a group of 70 I really really like and are valued at 60% or less of what I suspect is their full value. So on an individual basis they are almost half price. At some stage if I select very carefully IRRESPECTIVE of anything else people will be willing to pay me 100% for the stock I am now paying 50% for and usually the story before it gets to full value gets better and the $1- value is actually $1.40 by the time it gets there.

Markets and cycles tend to overshoot the mark both ways and its not until they are willing to pay me $1.25 for something worth $1.00 that it becomes very clear one should exit. If you have your tax set up correctly ... it will cost you close to nothing for this and taking advantage of other offsets via franked dividends or even a salary sacrifice at 15% the tax will see you actually using the taxation system to your benefit as opposed to what usually happens .

Either way all of it is irrelevant and buying stocks at 50-60% of their actual value works for me. sure stories change over time and for every one you get a little let down on you get three which surprise and reward you with your patience and devotion.

Number one for me is looking at the cycle on the overall market and its a top down approach to some extent but thats about as far as it goes. I know and use this approach because in any correction the numbers are chilling and 85% or MORE of all stocks loose value during a down market .... but when it gets to something idiotic the value steps in and takes over. I know its brave or stupid or whatever buying into a falling market as many have told me over the years on this thread. Even more times have I been lectured about the market is going up and its only a fool taking profits .....

read part 2 !!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Good on you Mark, a refreshing take on the markets, but remember what happens to bottom pickers.

gg

 

[kahuna1]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Tee hee bottom pickers ...

the old Chinese proverb comes to mind about bottom pickers and all they get .... smelly hands.

This aside ....

My own preference and style is both bottom up ... locating value and extreme value according to the actual risk on the downside vs the potential upside ....

And the other thing I do is try and pick market cycles via a combination of macros and momentum and economics and fair value along with a list of about another 20 inputs.

One cannot be done without the other and as always I am amazed at the stupidity shown both ends of the spectrum ... both on the overall market valuations and the individual stock side. This is how we have the boom and bust cycles which have been going on for the past 1,000 years and will continue I suspect for the next 1,000 years. How we had dot com companies valued on their sales ... not their profits, or profit margins but on multiples of sales is just one of the amazing things we have seen in recent times.

On individual stocks ... golly gee ... the favourites of mine were the energy saving device that used 50% of the power and the shares went mad up 10 fold .... wow what a device and reading the fine print I found the item in question ... well it was turned off for half the day ... so DERRR of course the thing saves half the power ... stock went from 5 cents to 85 cents and back where it belongs at 1 cent right now. Oh the medical miracles from the pill to loose weight to the other which cures everything from old age to aids .... or the mineral ones that saw metal when there was 0.02% by the time the assays came back to the ones at 12,000 feet where everyone if they were mined would have to wear an oxygen mask.

research and research and valuations !!!

Buy value and buy value according to risk ....

This applies both to the overall market and its value as I mentioned I thought fair value of the market was 5,300-5,400 yet here we were a few days ago 20% lower than that.

Buying into this sort of value doesn't scare me too much.

On the individual shares buying into a bear market like this and your being handed not just the fact the market is 20% lower but another 15% for the very big ones making it 35% discount .... 20% for the mid tier ones making them at 40% discount next step on risk being handed 25% plus 20% discount about 50% of price and then the end of the growth ones at somewhere around the 60% potential upside but for this they are of course riskier.

So picking bottoms .... if you are correct and I have a fairly long track record of being able to pick both these things .... what is the real downside ?

Famous last words ... one might think .... and at times the market will try you out but if your buying something that is worth $1- for 60 cents eventually at some stage you will be paid at least the $1- and more often than not the $1- conservative price you placed on something over time becomes $1.20 and then $1.50 and as per normal everyone and everyone loves it and they pay you a premium for your ownership.

So when I saw a person getting a lot of air-time the other day and they were sprouting on about they never ever look at fundamentals I know they are not even on the same planet as me. If you use technicals and yes I use technicals more to tell me where things stop either on the top or the bottom ... but if you use them ... where do you become bullish ? we just tested a technical level i suggested we tried ... 4,500 on the ASX 200 ... it tried it and it tried it again and again and again .... every misery guts around the globe was wheeled out and suggested we implode.

Now after really and truly trying the bottom ... here we are 4% off it overall ... any stock with a bit of life in it .... such as the very cheap banks I was rabbiting on about are ... 10% in some cases off their lows .... they have still some serious upside but ... the equation of buying them into this extreme weakness left me with 35% upside .... its now maybe 25% for the better ones ... where do they become bullish for the people who dont ever ever look at fundamentals ?

I kind of go the other way with people who ascribe to one set of rules .... I do use technicals certainly to pick these cycles ... there are brick walls everywhere some are of no importance others like the supports on the downside 4.600 was the first 4,500 the second and a decent one and the third also very decent was 4,350 ..... we clearly broke 4,600 on the ASX 200 and like the top the 50% retracement from the high to the low which we tried a few times but were unable to break we tried and FAILED to break the 4,500 level on 5 separate occasions ....

Maybe we go back there and break it but ... this is not my point. I have one eye on fair value of the market and in my eyes its still 20% higher at 5,400 ish ... so no red flag there ... the other is on the actual stock valuations and when someone is handing me a very very good risk reward .... I tend to take it. Sure the world may end but .... life will still go on and value is value.

Not many times in my 27 years experience does this fail you ... and when it does its temporary and eventually passes ... buying something for 50% of its value and a great story in the end fails you.

Back to the book seller who sprouted they never ever used fundamentals .... I am that old I remember Bond corp and it had fantastic charts ... as did many many others .... but when I looked and scratched they like many others failed to inspire and their books were at best made of rubber .... yet if I followed technicals at times they would have been the absolutely best thing to be in .... until one day they turned out their lights.

Each to their own I suppose .... but for myself .... I tend not to wait till some chart tells me its value ... or half the upside is gone ... the risk reward is pear shaped .... and the potential downside buying something which has already rallied 10% or 20% vs buying it at the bottom and being able and willing to identify and quantify the value and then act .... the sums are quite simple ... if you wait till its gone up 20% until technically its a buy and the likely upside is 20% ... you have 100% less upside ... 100% more downside and longer term it doesn't pay. Well it does if you identify value but ... I much prefer the first style.

Same and exactly the same applies to the topside to some extent but then it comes down to sometimes tax issues and being given the opposite on the other side .... unless someone is willing to pay me a premium to loose sell the stock I am not about to sell something for less than its worth. Funniest thing of all .... nine times out of 10 eventually someone is willing to pay you a premium for a good story !!

Enough ..... rambling from me.

Take care

Mark

 

[hobomojo]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

G'Day Mark,

Wow, am I glad I found you here. Your thread "over there" hasn't been the same without you. Coming to think of it, it hasn't been the same once some of the more "arguamentative" members got stuck in and peddled their pet theories. But I could've lived with that if there only was a workable filter for one person's contributions. Or a watchful mod to nip nonsense in the bud (no pun intended - but on second thoughts... : )

No more rambling from me - I'll enjoy reading your take on the global economy and especially the ASX.

PS: Thanks, Bob; appreciate your e-mail

Wow. Didn't even realize I had an account over here

K1...long time follower...never once acted on your advice...after all preachers are just preachers...result was down 80% at one time...that proverbial learning curve - painful is an understatement...but catching on pretty fast - look, I'm even stealing your post format! :...understand your reluctance to break forum rules here and over "there"...if you feel comfortable (read: brave) enough, please PM me your identity...Google has failed me, despite your warnings, which I've yet to heed

(Not) looking forward to your FINAL post...hope you make each and every subsequent revelation a penultimate one. May your next 20 yrs come to fruition...5300 here we come...let the divvies roll

 

[kahuna1]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Howdy,


Another week passes and its still wafting around the place. For me its been another week awaiting a little piece of paper !!!

Reporting season is out of the way and as per usual the slackers are punished and stomped on and the winners are grinner's but only for a day. What was interesting was the extent of how hard they stomped on some stocks and seeing a top 50 stock loose 10% plus is always a surprise especially when its not come out with really bad news just not beating expectations and this I suppose was the trend for the reporting season for me at least. Banks on the main did very well , others I didn't mind at these price levels some got stomped despite 9% fully franked dividends likely forever and others with NTA's of $2.50 and realistic NTA's and again dividends of 9% barely moved on good news on the reporting front. I still am of the view the overall market is cheap and its bee stock pickers heaven at the moment with the decent ones actually sneaking up over 10% off their lows which were seen in the last few weeks and heaven help them if the overall market decides its going to yet again visit higher.

On the overall market its been any and every excuse to sell it on various days. One day it was disappointment on an individual stock and several times its been the Greece thing which has dragged ours lower during the day. What the Greek problem at this stage had or has to do with how the CBA or WOW operates or the Australian economy is as usual beyond me. Technically and thats where we have to go at times like this the 4,500 level on the ASX 200 held and was tried numerous times which I suppose leads me to believe it holds. It may however be that they actually get it thru there at some stage and they feel as though thats just what they would like but for what ? With the next serious levels about 3% lower than this at 4,350 its a bit of a whoopee if they do.

The big levels on the top is the old 50% retracement we previously touched up at 4,950 ish and as such is a long way from where we are now. Quite clearly we are range bound for the time being and its a game of little boys right now as to the short term direction. So I suppose the bottom is the 4,500-4,350 if they are really naughty to the 4,950-5,000 level for a while. Personally cant see too much at this stage to worry me on the downside and more concerned about the upside in reality. Doesn't mean they cant go fishing but when I buy a stock as I mentioned with 8-9% fully franked dividends and only paying out on average 73% in dividends with actual EPS growth and likely 11-12% fully franked dividends in 2012 ... The downside is taking a longer term perspective not something which will faze me too much either way. I will just take my lovely dividends and buy some more and at some stage if they try go a bit leveraged into weakness. Some things as per normal are becoming clearer with the passage of time.

Number one is something I already knew and that was this recovery globally will take time and be a painful one with governments needing to cut spending and raise taxes and as such the GDP growth will be extremely weak over the next 2-3 years. This is despite the GDP number out of the USA last night at 5.9% ... As I mentioned they firebombed their economic numbers about 12 months ago so the base was so low its always going to look good on paper but when your talking about a small gain vs the adjusted losses and then adjusting that again for reality the number becomes meaningless to a great extent. One thing however is clear they are growing and the bottom has been seen and passed some time ago.

Second thing and again nothing new is that interest rates OUTSIDE Australia will remain low and for an extended period of time possibly 2-3 years and the US fed move meant nothing. Discount rates in the past meant nothing because no one ever used them and if one did the central bank sent around a team of auditors because using the discount window as a a means of funding meant the bank was in serious trouble. Actually allowing banks to use this window to raise funds and novate the risk between them by standing in the middle is what the central banks actually did to avert the disaster and it was needed for a time but is not needed now.

Third thing is I still dont see inflation and havn't seen it for some time especially when I doubt the recovery will be very robust. It aint going to happen when you have 20% underemployed as we are seeing in the USA.

Number four is unemployment itself ... Same story as before and my suspicion 6 months ago it didn't move and would take years to get the USA especially back to near where it was in 2005-6 still remains. It just so happened the markets woke up to this fact before I believed they would and we had this correction.


As for the rest, its ho hum. Greece was and is a bit of a worry but there are others I would worry about more than them but they were not mentioned during this crisis so I will leave them alone for now but as time goes on I am sure the problems of the others outside the PIGS will surface and have to be dealt with. We have essentially been to hell and are coming back. China is marching on-wards and I suspect by the time the rest of the world is mainly sorted out in 2012 they will be another 25% larger and as such I am not sure their reliance on the rest of the world for exports will be that great or crucial should things slow down in the western world. For Australia this is crucial for our outlook in the next 5 years and beyond and the RBA deputy came out during the week predicting the resource boom continues for the next 20 years, not sure I am that confident but its going to continue as before. When you have a government basically making all the decision on a central basis they can and have in the past turned off the taps and sent havoc through the commodity side and suspect at some stage given the success they just had will do it again. It will be a few months of rapid advances and stockpiling of resources followed by zero people buying anything which should send shivers thru the resource side yet again. Not sure if they will pull this card because if they are seen to be doing this it may be exporting nations just the slap resource taxes on exports to that destination and tell them to get nicked. A very potentially serious game of bluff China could be playing if they try this. The Iron ore guys are seen as being greedy by demanding they dont sell to China via an agreement on fixed price but here is the bottom line. Instead of buying at the agreed price and volume of a fixed price contract what happens for every importer besides China is they stick to the agreement and price and volume. With China they look at the fixed price contract and volume and ignore it totally. If the spot iron ore price falls below the contract price they buy on the spot market and tear up the volume and fixed price contract despite the fact they have a contract. If Japan or Germany has a contract for 20 million tons and the spot price falls to half the contract price thats tuff luck but not for China.

People seem to think they are some warm fuzzy teddy bear but they are not even close. The RIO debacle in China was associated with this mess and its not in retaliation the big miners are about to go this way with all three BHP RIO and Vale being handed the same thing. A contract is a contract except for this instance and since a lot of the customers are in fact govt controlled its no use trying to get it enforced.

Interesting world we live in.

Anyhow right now fund managers overseas are fully invested and basically dont have much spare cash to do anything about the stock market or levels and are hamstrung should we head lower and their are a few redemptions and some of the action of late has been media inspired panic which has amounted to nothing but when a fund manager has 3% of his funds pulled and he has no cash he has no option but to sell stock and at any level.

Still of the very same view the lower end we saw last week should hold ... the 4,500 ASX 200 level ... this however may break and be tested again but the next level is a mere 3 % below that ... either way happy to cherry pick some exceptional stories down here spread across the board .....

Better run ... see if my little piece of paper has arrived so I can depart on my own journey.

Nice weekend to all

Cheers

Mark

 

[kahuna1]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Howdy,

Well every cycle has its peaks and troughs and for me that day has arrived. Its taken a little while longer than I thought, but its all good. Finally I am an ASIC licensed representative and as such I fall under very different rules as to posting on chat sites. After 10 years of trying to at times bring some sanity to insane moves its time for me at least to move to the next stage. The whole process was interesting when as I mentioned I came from the institutional side and was recognised under the wholesale side for over 25 years to actually have to get registered with ASIC as an investment advisor on the retail side in my own right took a little longer than I thought. All of it good but it was in the end a waiting game for the certificates to come via snail mail but today was the day !!!

What I suppose was interesting in this process was after looking at other shops around they actually don't get their representatives to be individually registered in their own name with ASIC as opposed to my new shop. The few weeks gave me time as well to familiarize myself with my new surrounds and learn systems and fully explore their research department along with all the other myriad of products they offer. Again all good. Must say however having now done it and then seeing others who are doing the same job but under the parents AFSL licence as opposed to being registered in their own name its going to be an interesting ride with some interesting characters out there using the same description of their services vs my own 27 years and once upon a time a Chief Dealer of one of the worlds largest banks amongst other things. Bottom line if you ever use an advisor ask their qualifications and experience would be a tip.

Number two tip, after reading and speaking to some in my new role its with dismay I am finding how some have been treated in the past and set up would be my basic conclusion. Its nice for most readers to use an Internet broker and pay 0.1% for zero advice and that is what they get zero advice. In the end if your serious about investing if someone asks you to pay 4% up front tell them to get nicked. If someone offers to manage your investments and give you advice and has appropriate experience to do so forget the 0.1% because if they select the correct investment its going to make you 20% or more so paying 0.1% for something which is nothing other than paperwork vs someone handing you an investment and reasons and correct entry will cost you. There is nothing for nothing in this world.

Tip number three goes with the above if someone wants to charge you 2/3/4% to enter some product they are not personally running and supervising RUN ..... That means if its some fund or structured product run. If they offer to run your share side and ask anything more than say 1.5% I would also run .... Depends of course on the size. Remember they will not charge you 0.1% for entry either because if they are your personal advisor and as such if something happens one would hope they give you either a heads up before it happens or call or contact you to advise what to do in their opinion after the event. Of course its not possible to predict with 100% accuracy what will happen with any share let alone the market as a whole. One would hope and what I will be doing is calling for decent entry levels and so too on the other side exits ... when maybe the position should be reduced and the money placed into another undervalued share.

Tip number 4, it goes to advice .... And now a licensed advisor but not posting in that capacity right now .... Where do you get advice ? Worst places are the usual suspects.
Accountants gee for me a nearly qualified one myself its akin to asking a vet to perform brain surgery. Its always couched advice and they go I think its a bit expensive which to me equates that they actually know the market is going down !! Quite preposterous .... Lawyers are even worse. Next is family members who are well meaning, but its the usual mantra about gambling or bricks and mortar. Worst tips usually come from friends or someone like a taxi driver :} Best place I would presume is someone who actually follows the stock and knows the company and can produce volumes of research on them. Doesn't mean they are correct but at least you will be making an informed decision and if your advisor is good he will have his own views and suggestions for entry and exit. All this doesn't come without a price and its not 0.1% ... But the cost is somewhat irrelevant if he is good and get you in 10% cheaper than you might have yourself and gets you out 10% higher the other side .... Also it goes without saying the stock itself actually has some merits and goes up !!

Last tip ... Well its basically to listen to less media. Stop reading the papers and watching the reports on TV and sift sift sift. What is relevant to any stock or market or commodity is facts and facts alone. Once you have disseminated the facts from pure fiction and opinions then you are armed with the correct weapons to make an informed decision. Doing this is something which even after 27 years of being involved in financial markets takes extreme discipline and a lot of reading/ sifting and research.

Add to this the usual ones about preservation of capital and not having all your eggs in one basket and you come close to having a chance longer term. When I read someone suggesting 6-8 stocks I really scratch my head and wonder, holding 16% in a single stock that has a bad quarter and dives 20% equates to being hit for 3.2% overall. People try and ascribe this to Buffett and his views but he is someone who has at times 200 stocks in his trading portfolio. Try a number of 15-25 stocks and we are getting closer to the maximum risk one wants to take. Stop loss is another favorite I cannot forget before I depart ..... Eat humble pie and take the bloody loss.

Anyhow time for me to depart and would like to wish all the readers and others who have contributed to the chats over the course of the past decade all the best. For me its a new cycle of my own life and one I suppose I was meant to do. As a trader who rose from being the lunch boy/ trainee dealer at age 18 to the Chief Dealer of a very large bank my passion for the markets quite clearly is still there as strong as it was all those years ago. Thankfully I am somewhat wiser and now realise fully how little I actually thought I used to know :} I explained my reasoning for going this direction to manage individual accounts as opposed to setting up a fund previously and the bottom line is even the best performing listed fund tends to trade at 70-80% of NTA and the hoops I just jumped through for my ASIC licence are about 20 times harder for a listed fund and even an unlisted one. My bottom line after this would be to set up a fund then see it trade at 80% of NTA and then be buying my own shares back all the time for a guaranteed 20% profit. Somewhat insane to say the least to even contemplate this course. Sadly some very decent LIC's actually recently hit lows of around 60-65% of their conservative NTA.

Cycles ... This is the end of the cycle for me and cash I suppose is king .... At times .... Economies have cycles as do commodities as do individual shares and timing these cycles is hopefully one thing maybe I imparted over the years. Buying any stock into a correction at the peak of a cycle and what happens is 80% plus of all shares fall in a correction. The biggest risers over the next 12 months usually get hit hardest during the correction !! During the GFC I suspect the number of stocks that actually went down approached 95% !! Buying a commodity based stock when the underlying commodity has peaked and is only going one direction again a waste of time and money. I spent a lot of time trying to explain this view on various commodities over the years the most on oil when it was going up and my view on the way down along with the poor Uranium boys. Individual stocks themselves have their own cycles and then we add the macro cycles of economies to the mix and hey presto we have a market. Picking any of the cycles is hard enough but identifying what cycle a stock is in then the overall market and then the macro environment and then the underlying product or sector than applying a value to it .... Is what the whole thread is and was about. Buying something that is downtrodden but owns something valuable which is clearly rising in value and likely to do so for some time and then buying the stock in question in the late stages of a downward correction you have not just one cycle pointing in the right direction but sometimes 3/4/5 and each worth 15-20% if not more.

Enough from me. Read some books educate yourself. Pay for advice if you will take it .... Sift those facts out.


"We make a living by what we get, we make a life by what we give" Winston Churchill

Give someone a kiss that you love and tell them you do !! Its far more important than financial matters but please do at least take note of some of the prattlings of a veteran so as you can do the best for your loved ones as you can.

END OF CYCLE (last post)

Take care

Mark M

 

[noirua]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Howdy indeed, Not to forget that you can 'sift, sift, sift' and do all the work finding out about companies and still get badly caught out by a sudden shift down in markets, sometimes near everyone wants out and all at once.

Australia, despite being in the Far East is still strongly linked to movements in Wall Street though this reduces by the day as China gradually stands more and more on its own.

The strength of the Aussie$ in the last year or so has been very sudden and has increased Australia's presence in the World, mainly due to commodities. [some may think the ASX200 has been held back by this as foreigners have seen currency gains and see the ASX200 at the equivalent of 6,500 in the UK ] There lies a long pause for thought, as to whether this situation will continue in the next year.

 

[wns]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Hi Kahuna1 / Mark,

I just joined ASF very recently and came across this thread yesterday... and now you're leaving / can't post here anymore. What a shame. I've been enjoying your insightful posts. I wish you well in your new endeavours.

 

[cartycost]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Hi Kahuna1 / Mark,

I just joined ASF very recently and came across this thread yesterday... and now you're leaving / can't post here anymore. What a shame. I've been enjoying your insightful posts. I wish you well in your new endeavours.

Hi Kahuna as well

I am also new to this site but having read your recent posts, would like to wish you well. I am sorry that I can't read your posts into the future.
I intend to increase my knowlege and its people like you who spend the time relating your thoughts, that help people like me.
Thanks

 

[satanoperca]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Welcome all newcomers,

Please hail the big Kahuna, soon to be selling financial services with a free set of steak knives.

Come one, come all.

Oh Please.

 

[kahuna1]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Tee hee ...

I do love the free steak knives pun I used it once in a post .... along with others.

Sadly as an ASIC advisor one cannot post in that capacity other than being a general advice and even then if I were to mention a stock it could be trouble. If one is advising you one needs to know the client and their goals and needs and risk tolerances ... and objectives long and short and medium term. If I was to mumble a stock it may or may not be suited for all people and even then only in the correct proportion to the clients portfolio ....

So sadly one cannot post ... and rightly so. As one who has commented on the rules many times over the years and this goes from duties of directors to advisors themselves ..... I am not about to breach them myself.

Anyhow wishing all of you the best and a safe and profitable investing future. My apologies for only just appearing and then leaving ... rules however are rules.

Cheers

Mark

 

[pixel]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Hi Mark,
and - sadly: Bye Mark.

As one of a large number of your grateful readers for many years, I find it hard to come to grips with this kind of "rules". Why can the big guns - the ones that take your money, strip their cut, then follow the index - advertise freely, whereas the few advisors really deserving of that name are prevented from even allowing their identity/ email address to become known?

I am glad that I managed to get in touch with you before the curtain fell, so I'll stay in touch via e-mail or phone.

Wishing you good luck and success - I'm sure you will have both in abundance.

 

[Julia]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

T

Sadly as an ASIC advisor one cannot post in that capacity

Can you clarify what you mean when you describe yourself as "an ASIC adviser"?

 

[brty]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Mark,

I can see you have a few fans here and a bit of experience, you keep telling us, but some of the last stuff you wrote does not go over too well...

Pay for advice

You would/should know that 90% of professional advice in the financial sphere is useless.

Read some books

Yes, everyone should educate themselves. Care to elaborate?? I have a library of hundreds of trading/investing books dating back over many years, most are pretty useless, or should I say only useful in certain market conditions.

brty

 

[Timmy]

Re: The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king?

Anyhow wishing all of you the best and a safe and profitable investing future. My apologies for only just appearing and then leaving ... rules however are rules.

Cheers

Mark

Thanks for your great contributions while here, Mark.
If you wish to continue participating in the forum as a private individual you would be most welcome to.