The Top of the market is Looming?

Smurf1976 · 5 March 2021

Individual incidents are of themselves usually meaningless but in view of recent action in the credit markets and speculation of a looming market top this one may well be a relevant data point.

Aussie billionaire’s empire facing collapse

A Bundaberg farmer-turned globetrotting billionaire is this week staring down the collapse of his financial empire – and thousands of Australian jobs could hang in the balance.

www.news.com.au

investment bank Credit Suisse on Monday froze billions of dollars of funding, kicking off an explosive chain of events that has rocked the financial industry.

Greensill Capital is now preparing to file for insolvency

And more concerning:

The Financial Times further reported on Wednesday that BaFin, the German regulator, had filed a criminal complaint against Greensill Bank’s management for alleged balance sheet manipulation

One thing that usually emerges at a market top is the exposure of some sort of serious fraud.

That said - I'm still in the market but I'm paying close attention definitely.

tech/a · 5 March 2021

Have only 2 positions with trailing stops that are likely to be taken out today

Dark1975 · 5 March 2021

It's going to be brutal on the xao today,
Going on the dow / nasdaq, At least the dates have a sense of irony ? like a fire station burning down.

March 9th 2020, March 15th 2009 I remember that day bought CBA @ $20.03 ,
What will this march bring ? ? not a good month in my book

Dark1975 · 5 March 2021

Dark1975 said:
It's going to be brutal on the xao today,
Going on the dow / nasdaq, At least the dates have a sense of irony ? like a fire station burning down.

March 9th 2020, March 15th 2009 I remember that day bought CBA @ $20.03 ,
What will this march bring ? ? not a good month in my book

Will add as last post depicted a crash, diffently want to clarify this is in my opinion just a correction taking place atm, Actually thinking to buy this afternoon if price entry of some look oversold.
Tho will state the this toppy scenario could be the start of something bigger underlying which make take place in the next couple of months?

Value Collector · 5 March 2021

Dark1975 said:
What will this march bring ? ? not a good month in my book

I think you are being a bit superstitious there my friend if you look at the facts March has historically been a good month.

Firstly, you mentioned March 2009 as being bad, but the market ended March 2009 higher than it started, how is that bad?

The Market also went up in march in 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019.

So most years the market has ended March higher than it started, of course there have been crashes in march, they happen in every month at some point.

I am not making a prediction about this march, because I am not superstitious, just pointing out that march is historically good, so any thoughts you are having about it being bad might just be negative bias, In my opinion short term movements are somewhat random.

frugal.rock · 5 March 2021

I can see threads like this can sway opinions, and if that is part of the intention of the thread, I don't know what to say. (Well, I do, but I am going to bite my tongue)

An active push to benefit a few at the expense of most?

I am 100% invested, except for the 20% account which doesn't ever see the light of day....
How do you like them apples?
It only takes one bad apple.

Doom and gloom.
The end is is near.

qldfrog · 5 March 2021

I am gloomy but here on my pure systems side , so absolutely objective and not mood influenced, that part of investment made of 6 different systems, inc some going up during downmarket phase, is now 65% cash.yeap...
DYOR

Beaches · 5 March 2021

frugal.rock said:
I can see threads like this can sway opinions, and if that is part of the intention of the thread, I don't know what to say. (Well, I do, but I am going to bite my tongue)

An active push to benefit a few at the expense of most?

I am 100% invested, except for the 20% account which doesn't ever see the light of day....
How do you like them apples?
It only takes one bad apple.

Doom and gloom.
The end is is near.

That seems like a harsh assessment.

Perma bulls are just as dangerous as perma bears and both are wrong.

The market often has corrections and there is nothing wrong will calling it such. This is clearly a correction, the only thing in any doubt is the size of it. It may finish in a day or two or linger a bit longer.

That's not to say that indvilual stocks wont still go up .. it just gets harder to find the winners. Basically the risk/ reward profile of being long only is not as good

Many experienced traders will either:
1 Reduce holdings
2 Hedge existing holdings, or
3 Trade short

They are valid strategies. If they are wrong on the correction, they miss some profit and wade back into the market with the same capital.
If they are right, they go back into the market with more capital than if they had of held and taken the draw down.

Just wishing the market higher or lower is never a valid strategy. You have to trade what you actually see and not what you want to see.

Edit:
There is nothing wrong with trading through a minor correction, you just need to make sure you actually know what you are doing and not just blindly trading because it has worked before while the market was running.

Dark1975 · 5 March 2021

Value Collector said:
I think you are being a bit superstitious there my friend if you look at the facts March has historically been a good month.

Firstly, you mentioned March 2009 as being bad, but the market ended March 2009 higher than it started, how is that bad?

The Market also went up in march in 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019.

So most years the market has ended March higher than it started, of course there have been crashes in march, they happen in every month at some point.

I am not making a prediction about this march, because I am not superstitious, just pointing out that march is historically good, so any thoughts you are having about it being bad might just be negative bias, In my opinion short term movements are somewhat random.

Actually I was trading heavily at that time, and actually show a attachment of trades,
And I don't need to look up charts on revenant dates, Cause I was trading and remember from 20th Jan 2009 through to March 7th was the most volatile time in trading see attachments.
The lowest point was actually 6th March 2009 the asx was 3111.7 lowest point ..see attachment.
And yes if it was the lowest point you would expect a good rebound at the end of the month.
I guess if you are looking up charts from the past, it would show that march performed well, though expected off its lowest point a massive rebound.
I guess my point is, traders actually trading live remember march as the lows and the best entry point,
People that weren't trading in 2009 ? Looking up charts would see a different perspective.
I've attached some chess holdings to show that I was trading and don't need to look up historical charts to know the past ?

Value Collector · 5 March 2021

Beaches said:
That seems like a harsh assessment.

Perma bulls are just as dangerous as perma bears and both are wrong.

The market often has corrections and there is nothing wrong will calling it such. This is clearly a correction, the only thing in any doubt is the size of it. It may finish in a day or two or linger a bit longer.

That's not to say that indvilual stocks wont still go up .. it just gets harder to find the winners. Basically the risk/ reward profile of being long only is not as good

Many experienced traders will either:
1 Reduce holdings
2 Hedge existing holdings, or
3 Trade short

They are valid strategies. If they are wrong on the correction, they miss some profit and wade back into the market with the same capital.
If they are right, they go back into the market with more capital than if they had of held and taken the draw down.

Just wishing the market higher or lower is never a valid strategy. You have to trade what you actually see and not what you want to see.

Edit:
There is nothing wrong with trading through a minor correction, you just need to make sure you actually know what you are doing and not just blindly trading because it has worked before while the market was running.

There is also nothing wrong with just holding through a correction.

I mean a lot of people focus far to much on the market price of the assets they own, and whether these market prices will be higher or lower next week or next month, and hence feel the need to trade.

In your example of the trader that gets out of the market with $X amount of capital and then wades back in with $X, you make it seem like he hasn’t lost anything because he has the same amount of capital.

to me that is kind of non sensical, I mean let’s say I owned 10% of a pizza shop and I sold it for $100,000 and then later re-bought 8% of that pizza shop for $100,000.

You are saying that I should feel comfortable that my $100,000 capital is still intact, even though my ownership of the pizza shop has reduced by 20%, and I have lost real world value.

I know many people look at it the way you do, but to me that is incorrect thinking, I focus on what I actually own rather than it’s market price, sure I am happy if market prices rise to reflect the underlying value, but I don’t get upset if market prices drift below what I know is the true value.

I am happy owning quality assets throughout market price cycles, sure as I explained earlier in this thread it’s possible to trade and increase your real world stake, but as you noted some times that doesn’t play out, and you take a real world loss even though the numbers on paper mask your loss.

Value Collector · 5 March 2021

Dark1975 said:
Actually I was trading heavily at that time, and actually show a attachment of trades,
And I don't need to look up charts on revenant dates, Cause I was trading and remember from 20th Jan 2009 through to March 7th was the most volatile time in trading see attachments.
The lowest point was actually 6th March 2009 the asx was 3111.7 lowest point ..see attachment.
And yes if it was the lowest point you would expect a good rebound at the end of the month.
I guess if you are looking up charts from the past, it would show that march performed well, though expected off its lowest point a massive rebound.
I guess my point is, traders actually trading live remember march as the lows and the best entry point,
People that weren't trading in 2009 ? Looking up charts would see a different perspective.
I've attached some chess holdings to show that I was trading and don't need to look up historical charts to know the past ?

The market was higher on the 31st of March than it was on the 1st, in my book that’s a good month.

what ever volatility happened in between is irrelevant unless you let your self get swept up in the movements.

I have been investing since 1996, so I owned shares through March 2009, I can’t remember whether I bought or sold during that month, I can’t even remember anything memorable happening.

What ever fluctuations chilled you to the bone enough to make you still fear “March” 12 years later didn’t seem to impact me at all.

Dark1975 · 5 March 2021

Value Collector said:
The market was higher on the 31st of March than it was on the 1st, in my book that’s a good month.

what ever volatility happened in between is irrelevant unless you let your self get swept up in the movements.

I have been investing since 1996, so I owned shares through March 2009, I can’t remember whether I bought or sold during that month, I can’t even remember anything memorable happening.

What ever fluctuations chilled you to the bone enough to make you still fear “March” 12 years later didn’t seem to impact me at all.

Quote " What ever volatility in between is irrelevant unless you let your self get swept up in the movements"

How is buying in the lows irrelevant ? Or trading different strategies irrelevant ?
Are you basically saying that every strategy is irrelevant unless they are there following your philosophy of just buying and holding during cycle movements?
I don't claim to have the best trading strategy , tho i won't comment on your long term holding (typically SMSF strat) and say it's irrelevant,
Etiquette is important and respect different trading strategies.

Quote " What ever fluctuations chilled you to the bone enough to make you still fear the market " ?
I didn't say that volatile fluctuation scares me ? I don't know how you came to that conclusion. In fact it's quite the opposite as a strategy to
be aware of the correction taking place and leverage down and buy larger volumes at correction points. Simple buy low / sell high.
In my last post was just mentioning the irony of the low points that have happened in march,

Smurf1976 · 5 March 2021

frugal.rock said:
I can see threads like this can sway opinions, and if that is part of the intention of the thread, I don't know what to say. (Well, I do, but I am going to bite my tongue)

An active push to benefit a few at the expense of most?

The whole point of a discussion forum is to discuss things.

If a potential market top or bottom can't be discussed on a stock market forum well that would be a pretty major gap in what's being discussed given that many investors would have at least part of their money invested in index funds or other assets which in practice follow the index reasonably closely.

tech/a · 5 March 2021

frugal.rock said:
tech/a said:

Have only 2 positions with trailing stops that are likely to be taken out today

Click to expand...

Nothing filled and made a purchase.

qldfrog · 5 March 2021

Smurf1976 said:
The whole point of a discussion forum is to discuss things.

If a potential market top or bottom can't be discussed on a stock market forum well that would be a pretty major gap in what's being discussed given that many investors would have at least part of their money invested in index funds or other assets which in practice follow the index reasonably closely.

I would also say that i would be very happy if a few posts on asf could influence the overall market, but i am not that megalomaniac. The market does not care less what dark,frog or frugal think?

Value Collector · 5 March 2021

Dark1975 said:
Quote " What ever volatility in between is irrelevant unless you let your self get swept up in the movements"

How is buying in the lows irrelevant ? Or trading different strategies irrelevant ?
Are you basically saying that every strategy is irrelevant unless they are there following your philosophy of just buying and holding during cycle movements?
I don't claim to have the best trading strategy , tho i won't comment on your long term holding (typically SMSF strat) and say it's irrelevant,
Etiquette is important and respect different trading strategies.

Quote " What ever fluctuations chilled you to the bone enough to make you still fear the market " ?
I didn't say that volatile fluctuation scares me ? I don't know how you came to that conclusion. In fact it's quite the opposite as a strategy to
be aware of the correction taking place and leverage down and buy larger volumes at correction points. Simple buy low / sell high.
In my last post was just mentioning the irony of the low points that have happened in march,

Your post about March being a Bad month gave me the impression you thought a fall was bad, not that you were hoping to buy at a low point.

mid you are in the market to Buy shares, wouldn’t have you have said something like “March is usually a good month to buy” obviously if you are using terms like “March is a bad month” it means you are expecting March to do something bad not something good.

Either way, I was just pointing out that March has been up more often than it’s down, which is not what an uninformed reader would have taken from your post.

frugal.rock · 5 March 2021

qldfrog said:
I would also say that i would be very happy if a few posts on asf could influence the overall market, but i am not that megalomaniac. The market does not care less what dark,frog or frugal think?

Yeah, I know, it's just a very "looming" thread title.

looming
adjective

something unwanted or unpleasant) about to happen soon and causing worry:
the looming crisis
From the Cambridge dictionary.

I am entitled to get out of the wrong side of the bed like a bear with a sore head....BULL....
make that a BULL with a sore head

Craton · 5 March 2021

So if the top of the market is looming what is the big money doing, accum or dist?
Answering my own question led me this indicator.

Looks like I've work to do, unless someone has charts they'd like share.

joeno · 6 March 2021

Well as i suspected... 2nd tier growth stocks (esp in US tech) are getting slaughtered. Some dropping 50% in a matter of days. E.g. Virgin Galactic.

Paradigms shift. New industries replace older ones. But no such thing as a free lunch. Valuations do matter eventually. Don't listen to sweet-talkers who ask you to take a leap of faith at prices 5x the price they bought in.

The 2 major snake oil salesmen currently is Cathie Woods and Chamanth Palihapitiya.

For those of you who don't know Cathie invests the $billions in her fund based on "what God asked her to" (LOL). Chamanth is the one who bought a whole bunch of speculative garbage like SPCE and went on CNBC telling people to buy his favored stocks at 5x the price he bought in. These days he's dumping his shares and saying he's "re-investing the money into the fighting climate change" (LOL). Nobody can see through that excuse.

Virgin Galactic drops 10% after chairman Chamath Palihapitiya dumps his $213 million personal stake

Virgin Galactic Chairman Chamath Palihapitiya sold his remaining personal stake in the space tourism company earlier this week.

www.cnbc.com

Absolute dirty market manipulating scumbags. They should both be locked up for life imo for misleading 10s of thousands of investors. But hey wishful thinking as business people like them never do.

frugal.rock · 6 March 2021

joeno said:
Absolute dirty market manipulating scumbags.

On a lighter note...
It's looking like Monday should have mostly a good start going by US last night and ASX 200 futures closing up nearly 1%

The Top of the market is Looming?

Smurf1976

Aussie billionaire’s empire facing collapse

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

Dark1975

Dark1975

Value Collector

Have courage, and be kind.

frugal.rock

qldfrog

Beaches

Dark1975

Attachments

Value Collector

Have courage, and be kind.

Value Collector

Have courage, and be kind.

Dark1975

Smurf1976

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

qldfrog

Value Collector

Have courage, and be kind.

frugal.rock

Craton

Mostly passive, contrarian.

joeno

Virgin Galactic drops 10% after chairman Chamath Palihapitiya dumps his $213 million personal stake

frugal.rock

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