The stock market is crashing....

[Sean K]

I think your right professor. I did like how he retrospectively predicted all those other events through history though. Very talented man. I predicted the Great Flood, but you'll have to read my book to see how I did it.

 

[Ageo]

I predicted the Great Flood, but you'll have to read my book to see how I did it.

Really??? where can i buy your book!!!!


I would love to see his financial statements (bank balance).


Because if he stuck by what he has spoken about then surely he should be at least a bllionaire?

Anyone else who would like to see his bank balance?

 

[Nick Radge]

Very strange. This guy is mimicking EWI almost word for word. I wonder if they know? I wonder if he's like some agent for them?

 

[nizar]

ANything forecasted can should never be considered as "truth"

 

[wayneL]

...in Saudi Arabia

http://www.zawya.com/equities/sa/

hmmmmmm.... what, if anything, is this telling us?

Update on the saudi stock market crash..

Down 50%

 

[Sean K]

I hadn't even realised this had occurred. Must get out of my Dow Jones, ASX bubble.

I couldn't find a reason why Wayne. What goin on? Strange it hasn't effected other markets so much, or has it?

Think there'll eventually be a flow on to the West, or contained to the Middle East?

 

[Ageo]

Its been down trending since April which didnt seem to have an impact on the US till much later.

I hope it moves over here If it does all i can say is "short, short, short!"

 

[wayneL]

I hadn't even realised this had occurred. Must get out of my Dow Jones, ASX bubble.

I couldn't find a reason why Wayne. What goin on? Strange it hasn't effected other markets so much, or has it?

Think there'll eventually be a flow on to the West, or contained to the Middle East?

Well they did have quite a huge run up, leading up to this. But I do think it is foreboding.

I'm on record as a bear, but I don't think there will be a calamatous crash in the west... more like a 70's style bear across most asset classes (excluding certain resources). But that's just a guess.

 

[GreatPig]

Well they did have quite a huge run up, leading up to this.

Like nearly 80% gain in around 7 months!

Makes our 20% pa look miserly indeed.

GP

 

[hissho]

2007?

interestingly some who follow W.D.Gann religiously also claim we gonna have a big correction in 2007 coz all "7" years have been bad, with 1907 as the only exception...

 

[tech/a]

The chart for the last 106 years is here http://www.asx.com.au/research/market_info/history/all_ords.htm

Open the PDF file.

While some years ending in 7 were average the larger majority went without a hitch.

Other than May the most dangerous months to trade in are.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
and
April.

 

[michael_selway]

2007 or 2008 latest (after Beijing Olympics) thats when the crash will occur, All Ords Terminal Value 6000+, will drop to 4000+ over a few months. DOW Terminal Value 12000+ drop to 10000+ over a few months. Commodity prices will also crash, especially metals. Oil and Uranium may fall but not crash

Then a very slow rise to stable from there for a 1-2 yrs at least

thx

MS

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=5353

Commodity strategists: Commodity 'bubble' to burst, SocGen says
Source: Bloomberg

Metals Board
Metals CatalogA commodity-price "bubble" may not burst until the fourth quarter, when higher interest rates slow economic growth and demand for crude oil, copper and other raw materials, Societe Generale said.

Commodities including zinc and platinum have reached records in the last several months. Prices may rise further in the third quarter because of speculation about supply disruptions and declining inventory, Frederic Lasserre, Paris-based head of commodities research at France's third-largest bank, said in three reports between May 26 and May 31.

"The idea of a bubble is starting to gain popularity among investors," Lasserre said in a telephone interview yesterday. "But the bubble cannot burst until there is a consensus that it exists in the first place. We are not there yet."

Commodity prices, as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, have gained for four consecutive years, the longest winning streak since the early 1970s. In the third quarter, industrial metals will outpace precious metals, which in turn will outperform energy, Societe General predicts.

The index dropped 6.4 percent in the week to May 19, the biggest decline since 1980.

"We believe that this correction does not yet mark the end of the bull run and that performance should remain spectacular until the fourth quarter," Lasserre, 40, said in the reports.

Investors are divided on whether the bull market in commodities is over. Stephen Roach, chief economist at New York- based Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. investment bank, said May 15 the bubble will burst when China's economic growth slows. Jim Rogers, the former investment partner of George Soros, said on May 12 that record prices for raw materials will keep rising as demand outpaces supplies.

Metals gain
Copper has more than doubled in the past year, silver has gained 65 percent and gold has gained 52 percent. Oil climbed to a record $75.35 a barrel on April 21. Lasserre compared the commodity bubble with the surge in technology stocks in the late 1990s. Such bubbles tend to last an average of between nine and 12 months, he said.

Oil prices in New York, at $70.93 a barrel today, may average $67.50 in the fourth quarter and $58 next year, Societe Generale said. Prices may rise to an average of $76.50 in the third quarter, reaching as higher $80 in the period.

For copper, prices may rise to an average $9,500 a metric ton in the third quarter, before falling to an average of $7,650 in the last three months of the year. Prices, which are at $7,930 today, may fall to an average of $6,300 in 2007, the bank said.

Zinc may average $4,250 a ton in the third quarter before falling to an average of $3,100 in the fourth. Aluminium may average $3,350 a ton in the third quarter and $2,850 in the last quarter, the bank said.

Gold surges
For gold, prices may rise to an average of $770 an ounce in the third quarter before falling to an average of $650 in the fourth quarter. Prices, which were at $633.20 today, may average $573 next year.

Investors are diversifying from stocks and bonds and investing in so-called alternative investments such as commodities, real estate and hedge funds. Fund investments in commodity indexes and other products may exceed $120 billion by 2008, compared with $80 billion last year, according to estimates from Barclays Plc.

"The massive injection of capital in markets, which do not have the capacity to absorb it in such a short time, quite logically created unusual price behavior," Lasserre said.

Lasserre has worked for Societe Generale for the past 10 years after teaching economics and finance at the Bordeaux Business School in France

 

[jet-r]

omg..!!

the base metal spot prices are dropping like stones...!!

Copper is down 4.65%
Nickel is down 13%
Alumium down 3%
Zinc down 8% and
Lead down 3.80%

not looking forward to tomorrow's opening

 

[Ageo]

omg..!!

the base metal spot prices are dropping like stones...!!

Copper is down 4.65%
Nickel is down 13%
Alumium down 3%
Zinc down 8% and
Lead down 3.80%

not looking forward to tomorrow's opening

I am definately looking forward to tommorrow. If you hold stock that is ETO tradeable then why not write covered calls against it? at least it will minimize the downside loss?

Makes more sense to me instead of just holding and praying.

 

[tech/a]

Could you give us an example of say,

How far out you'd write the call and strike price?
How you'd determine both?

Lets say Im trading BHP.

 

[ducati916]

Unless the MM is nursing a hangover, suffering double-vision drowning in coffee, when the market tanks, Call premium evaporates, but, any bounce can play havoc with your escape clause.

jog on
d998

 

[Ageo]

Tech,

once i have access to premiums later on i will explain.

 

[daaussie]

And my 2 bobs worth is....

the rumour and talk of a crash around the market i believe is non-sense. everyone tries to make predictions, but the truth is that trading and stocks is the hot thing of today's time.

everyone from kids, teenages and up are doing it because it is becoming increasing easy with the internet speeds and online broking etc.

I doubt whether there will be a crash and in my opinion this rumour has been started by some key very rich and prominent people who have sold out and are looking to bring the market down so they can re-invest more profitably.

And now for my example of the past where this has happened. The property market in Aus exploded and yes i invested in 2001 where it had done a significant jump of 30-40%. people told me (and this was all the property experts and general public followed) that the market may crash and it was the boom. I bought anyhow. Since then, my property went up a further 110% in 1-2 years. Bust my ass...
I increased the portfolio in 2003 and yes I still got some bargains. now property prices have steadied and will remain steady (with a possible chance to increase 2-3% per annum) IN MY OPINION.

So yes I am an iindependent thinker on my own feet.

that's my 2 bobs worth..

hope someone benefits..

 

[tech/a]

Aussi

I did the same. Friends constantly through 2000 chastised me in particular when we bought multiple properties gearing to the max as properties increased in equity.

Last properties were bought in 2002. Have sold 3 with another 2 on contract for after 30/6 leaving most holdings then freehold.
Equity will then be channelled elsewhere--increasing my stock portfolio's will be one place.

As a property developer some will be going toward community title high density developements.This is where the demand is in Adelaide.

 

[powerkoala]

Is this really the doomsday for metal ?
cant figure out what to do next....