The state of the economy at the street level

[wayneL]

florist I was talking to can't keep up with demand. They also can't get certain flowers as they come from overseas.

Massage therapist has tripled their workload and can't keep up.

It's so confusing.

I'm busy as ever and 80% of my clients either no effect or doing better. That might be a function of the type of people I have.

The other 20% are doing very poorly businesswise (but have heaps of savings).

 

[moXJO]

It's so confusing.

I'm busy as ever and 80% of my clients either no effect or doing better. That might be a function of the type of people I have.

The other 20% are doing very poorly businesswise (but have heaps of savings).

Everyone I'm talking to at the moment is booming. I've spent a bit of money on updating some stuff.

It's a great time for entrepreneurs as well. Some guys out there making big money.

 

[Macquack]

It's a great time for entrepreneurs as well. Some guys out there making big money.

I know a few businesses that have won the lottery by fudging their books, employing their workers as usual and pocketing the job keeper.

I would not call them "entrepreneurs", they are just scamming the system.

 

[jbocker]

I know a few businesses that have won the lottery by fudging their books, employing their workers as usual and pocketing the job keeper.

I would not call them "entrepreneurs", they are just scamming the system.

Dob them in.

 

[sptrawler]

From what I've heard, it is happening both ways, workers and employers.
I bet the ATO will have a field day.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Dob them in.

Government will run an algorithm to back test and data integrate between ATO and Centrelink for businesses and individuals. They will get caught, it is just a matter of time.

In saying this; the Liberals will have to review the JobKeeper and JobSeeker trimming that they have announced because the state of the economy may not be ready for the trimming.

 

[over9k]

The economy always picks up over summer - it's when things drop again later into next year that we should be worried.

 

[Smurf1976]

I'm busy as ever and 80% of my clients either no effect or doing better. That might be a function of the type of people I have.

The other 20% are doing very poorly businesswise

You can't name them obviously but is there a pattern in terms of what sort of business the 20% are in versus the 80%?

I'm assuming the 20% are in tourism or stuff like that?

 

[wayneL]

You can't name them obviously but is there a pattern in terms of what sort of business the 20% are in versus the 80%?

I'm assuming the 20% are in tourism or stuff like that?

Yes it would be as you would expect, although I don't have anyone in the tourism industry, they are mainly in the hospitality, restaurants, gym owners and whatnot.

My biggest account is a riding for the disabled establishment, owned by a very large non-profit organisation and they are doing it really tough as far as cashflow is concerned, but the underlying organisation is cashed up enough to keep things going.

 

[qldfrog]

Let's be honest we are now applying a quasi worldwide universal income
Minimum income paid to everyone whether you work or not.
ideologically a nightmare for me and a path to societal oblivion but i take it and will not be the only sucker not to.

 

[SirRumpole]

ideologically a nightmare for me and a path to societal oblivion

The concept of "no work no pay" is receding into the background a bit as work becomes less secure and more of it is done by machines.

The pragmatic point of view is that without consumption you don't have an economy, machines and software don't buy goods and services and so you have to have a way of keeping money circulating and a universal basic income is one such way.

Ideology is going to have to be sacrificed quite a bit in the next decades if the world economy is not to suffer a huge recession in my view.

 

[qldfrog]

The concept of "no work no pay" is receding into the background a bit as work becomes less secure and more of it is done by machines.

The pragmatic point of view is that without consumption you don't have an economy, machines and software don't buy goods and services and so you have to have a way of keeping money circulating and a universal basic income is one such way.

Ideology is going to have to be sacrificed quite a bit in the next decades if the world economy is not to suffer a huge recession in my view.

You are right, the issue is
is avoiding a huge recession the ultimate goal?..all similar to the covid dilemma actually.
We want to avoid shocks and are condemned to a slow death, for covid ultimately more deaths and a destroyed economy, for the GFC and ongoing kicking of the can, a societal oblivion and death of the western civilization.
Without highjacking the thread, i will take my personal example.
From China startup , world patents and bringing tech dollars back from China to jobkeeper
.business dead due to governments..note the plural..decision
I can choose to either leave Australia altogether..for China...no thanks or "retire" /adapt.
Well me being me, i am on another project but it is a non productive one, one of the feel good one, no big $ expected,, no export, no IP patent or productivity increase just sucking at the teats of welfare for the good of disabled people .admirable maybe, but not nation building or economy strengthening.

I visit a local chamber of Commerce, plenty of good people, all do good , low footprint, inclusion,,first nation, community spirit and recycling..but not a cent of exporting or even local production: who is to pay for NDIS when the mines are empty?
Go to the village at 10 mid week, no place to park..a great attraction park and leisure center we are now

Where is sustainability in a nation when all the money come from selling wheat, or iron ore/coal
So at the street level,I moved from bringing in export dollars to being locked in a gilted jail, toying around to do good financed by the taxes I used to pay and playing with trading systems while hardly paying taxes

Suits my stage of life but had I been 20y younger, i would have jumped in the first plane out.how many are/will be like me ?
Without bragging, i brought in export dollars to this country and paid A LOT in taxes, not recycle money.that stage is over and replaced by coffee drinking economy.
How long can this be sustained?

 

[wayneL]

You are right, the issue is
is avoiding a huge recession the ultimate goal?..all similar to the covid dilemma actually.
We want to avoid shocks and are condemned to a slow death, for covid ultimately more deaths and a destroyed economy, for the GFC and ongoing kicking of the can, a societal oblivion and death of the western civilization.
Without highjacking the thread, i will take my personal example.
From China startup , world patents and bringing tech dollars back from China to jobkeeper
.business dead due to governments..note the plural..decision
I can choose to either leave Australia altogether..for China...no thanks or "retire" /adapt.
Well me being me, i am on another project but it is a non productive one, one of the feel good one, no big $ expected,, no export, no IP patent or productivity increase just sucking at the teats of welfare for the good of disabled people .admirable maybe, but not nation building or economy strengthening.

I visit a local chamber of Commerce, plenty of good people, all do good , low footprint, inclusion,,first nation, community spirit and recycling..but not a cent of exporting or even local production: who is to pay for NDIS when the mines are empty?
Go to the village at 10 mid week, no place to park..a great attraction park and leisure center we are now

Where is sustainability in a nation when all the money come from selling wheat, or iron ore/coal
So at the street level,I moved from bringing in export dollars to being locked in a gilted jail, toying around to do good financed by the taxes I used to pay and playing with trading systems while hardly paying taxes

Suits my stage of life but had I been 20y younger, i would have jumped in the first plane out.how many are/will be like me ?
Without bragging, i brought in export dollars to this country and paid A LOT in taxes, not recycle money.that stage is over and replaced by coffee drinking economy.
How long can this be sustained?

EXACTLY!!!

MMT/UBI encourages non-production in a big way. as we all know there are businesses that are struggling to get their workers to come back to work because the wicket is too good, collecting the ipso facto UBI at the moment. Some of my own clients (hospitality workers) have openly told me it's not worth them going back to work at the moment.

They can now swan around riding their horses any time of the day or night while their bosses struggle to make ends meet and get staff.

Under full blown MMT it will be worse.

When I watched Idiocracy, I thought it was prophetic, but not in my lifetime. Yet here we are.

 

[SirRumpole]

You are right, the issue is
is avoiding a huge recession the ultimate goal?..all similar to the covid dilemma actually.
We want to avoid shocks and are condemned to a slow death, for covid ultimately more deaths and a destroyed economy, for the GFC and ongoing kicking of the can, a societal oblivion and death of the western civilization.
Without highjacking the thread, i will take my personal example.
From China startup , world patents and bringing tech dollars back from China to jobkeeper
.business dead due to governments..note the plural..decision
I can choose to either leave Australia altogether..for China...no thanks or "retire" /adapt.
Well me being me, i am on another project but it is a non productive one, one of the feel good one, no big $ expected,, no export, no IP patent or productivity increase just sucking at the teats of welfare for the good of disabled people .admirable maybe, but not nation building or economy strengthening.

I visit a local chamber of Commerce, plenty of good people, all do good , low footprint, inclusion,,first nation, community spirit and recycling..but not a cent of exporting or even local production: who is to pay for NDIS when the mines are empty?
Go to the village at 10 mid week, no place to park..a great attraction park and leisure center we are now

Where is sustainability in a nation when all the money come from selling wheat, or iron ore/coal
So at the street level,I moved from bringing in export dollars to being locked in a gilted jail, toying around to do good financed by the taxes I used to pay and playing with trading systems while hardly paying taxes

Suits my stage of life but had I been 20y younger, i would have jumped in the first plane out.how many are/will be like me ?
Without bragging, i brought in export dollars to this country and paid A LOT in taxes, not recycle money.that stage is over and replaced by coffee drinking economy.
How long can this be sustained?

A BASIC income only provides for the basics.

That won't be enough for the go getters who will still strive for the extra cash and probably will have to pay less employees more money each, so the overall pay bill will be about the same.

There will be more reliance on consumption taxes and less on income taxes, so the incentive to work and earn income will still be there.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

EXACTLY!!!

MMT/UBI encourages non-production in a big way. as we all know there are businesses that are struggling to get their workers to come back to work because the wicket is too good, collecting the ipso facto UBI at the moment. Some of my own clients (hospitality workers) have openly told me it's not worth them going back to work at the moment.

They can now swan around riding their horses any time of the day or night while their bosses struggle to make ends meet and get staff.

Under full blown MMT it will be worse.

When I watched Idiocracy, I thought it was prophetic, but not in my lifetime. Yet here we are.

There aren't that many jobs out there. A few small businesses are hardly representative of the entire business community. NSW are re-imposing COVID restrictions for hospitality businesses.

The Liberals will have to review the JobKeeper and JobSeeker trimming before it comes into effect. Otherwise we may see looting and crime on the streets; if people can't provide for their children.

 

[qldfrog]

A BASIC income only provides for the basics.

That won't be enough for the go getters who will still strive for the extra cash and probably will have to pay less employees more money each, so the overall pay bill will be about the same.

There will be more reliance on consumption taxes and less on income taxes, so the incentive to work and earn income will still be there.

Do you really believe that second paragraph? You adapt to the environment, the real go and getters will take planes out, the half bake will do reno or work on the side until such time as they are brought in line and stop bothering.
Real hard work is hard and painfull.you do not do it for pleasure or crumbles

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

If I was Scomo; I would be pushing for all the domestic borders to remain welded shut; then trim the JobKeeper and JobSeeker according to each state's COVID restrictions. So WA, SA, NT, QLD and TAS will have the JobKeeper and JobSeeker trimmed; VIC, ACT and NSW will have the current JobKeeper and JobSeeker untouched until COVID is under control.

The domestic borders can open again once all the states have COVID under control.

 

[SirRumpole]

Do you really believe that second paragraph? You adapt to the environment, the real go and getters will take planes out, the half bake will do reno or work on the side until such time as they are brought in line and stop bothering.

Business owners will be encouraged by the fact that the consumers have money to spend on their products. Lets face it, work is becoming more casual , part time and insecure. That doesn't encourage people to spend as freely as they otherwise would. That is bad for business as well as consumers.

 

[qldfrog]

Business owners will be encouraged by the fact that the consumers have money to spend on their products. Lets face it, work is becoming more casual , part time and insecure. That doesn't encourage people to spend as freely as they otherwise would. That is bad for business as well as consumers.

Have you ever own a business SirRumpole? Do not take that as an attack, this is not the intent, but what is your image of owning a business in 2020?
Do you have any idea of the actual struggle in term of ATO compliance, funding, compliances not even discussing the actual business.And no, you can not dump it on an accountant that easily
Why would anyone bother here?

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Have you ever own a business SirRumpole? Do not take that as an attack, this is not the intent, but what is your image of owning a business in 2020?
Do you have any idea of the actual struggle in term of ATO compliance, funding, compliances not even discussing the actual business.And no, you can not dump it on an accountant that easily
Why would anyone bother here?

We will see what Josh has to say today.

I think we should be reducing company and individual income taxes dramatically; then raise GST with exceptions on rent, food and energy. This will alter government revenue streams which will essentially tax consumers that can afford it.