Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The state of the economy at the street level

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moXJO said:
busy as he'll for trades
Click to expand...
Trades I think it varies hugely.

Residential are perhaps busy (?) but I know some doing commercial work only and they are completely idle at present, all work has come to a complete halt, and they're actively considering a change of business focus.

I think it varies hugely depending on what trade, what segment of the market and what location. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
Trades I think it varies hugely.

Residential are perhaps busy (?) but I know some doing commercial work only and they are completely idle at present, all work has come to a complete halt, and they're actively considering a change of business focus.

I think it varies hugely depending on what trade, what segment of the market and what location. :2twocents
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That's true it's mainly residential I've been speaking to.
 
If it counts for anything, in the pre COVID times, I would get messages from recruiters on LinkedIn offering jobs. Let's say about 2-3 a week on average.

During COVID times, no messages, although I didn't have trouble finding myself a permanent role to switch to from my contracting work in April.

This week I have been contacted twice so far about 3 different roles, so looks like IT recruitment is starting back up.
 
InsvestoBoy said:
If it counts for anything, in the pre COVID times, I would get messages from recruiters on LinkedIn offering jobs. Let's say about 2-3 a week on average.

During COVID times, no messages, although I didn't have trouble finding myself a permanent role to switch to from my contracting work in April.

This week I have been contacted twice so far about 3 different roles, so looks like IT recruitment is starting back up.
Click to expand...
You went quiet.
A mate/ neighbour recruiting for his digital disruptor is finding plenty of talent to recruit, as competition falls over.
 
I have clients from all aspects of industries and social stratas.

It's actually quite interesting who is doing well and who isn't. I have a hospital supplies company that is not doing very well at all, and a mortgage broker who says he's busier than ever.

Disabilities employment person who is gearing up for a massive expansion, and a pathology company that's not doing so well.

Specialist mechanic that is absolutely struggling.

Hospital workers, nurses and doctors and whatnot that are sitting around twiddling their thumbs.

I even have a stripper who is just about starving because she has no income at all, (but still manages to find some money for the care of her horse).

I'm much busier than I expected to be but as I said before that remains to be seen whether that continues.

To be honest I'm finding it really difficult to get a tag on the direction of things.

One day, depending on the people I'm coming across that day the economy at ground level is going awesome, much better than one would expect. The next day things seems so diabolical I almost feel like slitting my wrists.

FWIW
 
As a further WTF moment, my missus needs some orthopaedic surgery done... Found a excellent surgeon and just going to cough up the cost ourselves.

He has offered a substantial discount because he wants something to do really soon.

We didn't ask for, nor were expecting any sort of discount, but there you go.
 
Went to the golf driving range the other day. Owner said business is the best it's ever been.
 
Some of my winter warm clothes are getting a bit thin and the weather is turning so I decided I'd buy some stuff online at Bonds. Bought some trackpants and a hoodie, and they advertise it as "Australian cotton" but it is made in China.

It turned up and wasn't very good. Trackpants were thin, hoodie not warm, strange proportions etc.

Today my partner suggested we go to Uniqlo which is a Japanese brand popping up all over Sydney, very successful, to get better stuff. It was a nice day so we walked to Hurstville Westfield.

What can I tell you, I'm revising the XJO 9,000 forecast to XJO 10,0000, maybe XJO 50,000.

The shops were packed full of people ignoring social distancing.

The line to pay at Uniqlo was huge, maybe 10-15 minutes wait to pay and a similar line of people waiting for fitting rooms.

A chain I have never heard of, "TK Maxx" which pretty much looked like the clothes section of a Target, had two lines of people waiting patiently to get in.

I saw one guy wheeling a full trolley of homeware junk and a trampoline out of Big W.

The only stores that didn't look like they were printing money were the ones who had remained closed and jewellers.

Outside the Westfield, all the Asian grocers were as full as always and the several consecutive Chinese BBQ shops all had lines of people on the street waiting for their Saturday BBQ pork and duck like normal.

If there were expectations that customer preferences would be switched to online only, you can just throw that in the bin right now.
 
InsvestoBoy said:
If there were expectations that customer preferences would be switched to online only, you can just throw that in the bin right now.
Click to expand...

You are incorrect, as it is not black or white, the prevailing trend, is that online sales are increasing and bricks and mortar retailing is decreasing. Follow the trend through data, not your general observation.

There will always be a place for bricks and mortar retail, it is just the environment is changing.

Simply look at MYR and KGN to get a perspective. If you had $1000 to invest which one would it be and why?
 
InsvestoBoy said:
Some of my winter warm clothes are getting a bit thin and the weather is turning so I decided I'd buy some stuff online at Bonds. Bought some trackpants and a hoodie, and they advertise it as "Australian cotton" but it is made in China.

It turned up and wasn't very good. Trackpants were thin, hoodie not warm, strange proportions etc.

Today my partner suggested we go to Uniqlo which is a Japanese brand popping up all over Sydney, very successful, to get better stuff. It was a nice day so we walked to Hurstville Westfield.

What can I tell you, I'm revising the XJO 9,000 forecast to XJO 10,0000, maybe XJO 50,000.

The shops were packed full of people ignoring social distancing.

The line to pay at Uniqlo was huge, maybe 10-15 minutes wait to pay and a similar line of people waiting for fitting rooms.

A chain I have never heard of, "TK Maxx" which pretty much looked like the clothes section of a Target, had two lines of people waiting patiently to get in.

I saw one guy wheeling a full trolley of homeware junk and a trampoline out of Big W.

The only stores that didn't look like they were printing money were the ones who had remained closed and jewellers.

Outside the Westfield, all the Asian grocers were as full as always and the several consecutive Chinese BBQ shops all had lines of people on the street waiting for their Saturday BBQ pork and duck like normal.

If there were expectations that customer preferences would be switched to online only, you can just throw that in the bin right now.
Click to expand...
I was out today and it was the same. Guaranteed second wave of coronavirus. People were everywhere. I did notice that sentiment shifted a few weeks back that scared me out of the market on shorts.

I'm thinking retail gets a sugar hit for a few weeks, maybe months.
I'm noticing people are gold plating their nests. Housewares, upgrades to homes, hobbies anything in case they have to bunker down. It feels more like "prepping" rather than a return to normal to tell you the truth.
Once the rush wears off the money will go back to napping.

I just can't see a quick recovery. But you have to play what's in front of you.
 
went to the northern beaches(Northern Beaches). Cars everywhere, but no soccer mums and other event crowds, so traffic flowed. Barrenjoey still closed because it is a National Park. And still overpriced up that way, so went to Dee Why. People being rather circumspect; got the feeling we're all a bit stunned. Had fish'n'chips and a beer. First sitdown meal since 09 March. Owner got through 2 months selling the occasional coffee and take away, but the food sector won't do anything but limited menu and minimal staff until normal trading conditions return. Margins too tight (yes, i do like to sniff the breeze).

Some are keeping distance but too many aren't. I fear the relapse.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
Some are keeping distance but too many aren't. I fear the relapse.
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I also fear it. I can still see some caution around but not enough. A second wave is a normal occurrence that I am not sure people really appreciate. It can start from VERY small numbers. We are however well geared to treat early, but I dread the reaction of trying to perform another shut down. I reckon we are doing the right thing in coming out of lock down but not sure we have stressed the caution well enough.
Hopefully we have.
 
I was a little shocked when I read this:

The Australian Financial Security Authority (AFSA) released the personal insolvency statistics for the December quarter 2019. Personal insolvencies continued their downward trend with a 10.6% percent decrease compared to the December 2018 quarter. This brings total personal insolvencies to their lowest level since 1996.

The fall was consistent across Australia, with all states and territories registering a reduction in new personal insolvencies, apart from the ACT, which saw an increase of 7.9%.

Personal insolvencies fell across all three types of appointments. Bankruptcies were down 8.3% to their lowest level since 1994. Debt agreements saw another large drop of 21.5% nationally, taking them to their lowest level since 2008. Personal insolvency agreements also fell by 27%, taking them to their lowest level since records began in 1986.
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http://www.mondaq.com/australia/ins...nsolvencies-fall-to-lowest-levels-in-20-years


Though they expect more insolvencies come September once the stimulus is stopped.
Got to say I was expecting a lot worse. Same with XOA and the Dow. I was expecting to be lower then where we are.

Perhaps my thinking is stuck in bear mode.
 
Target stores are now the target. .:)
Big holes in retail shopping centres and in regional Australia

Target shuts up to 75 stores and converts others to Kmart, putting up to 1,300 jobs at risk
Up to 167 Target and Target Country stores will be shut or converted to Kmart sites, putting as many as 1,300 jobs at risk.
Key points:

  • Between 10 to 25 Target stores will close
    • An additional 10 to 40 Target stores will be converted to Kmarts
    • About 52 Target Country stores will be converted to Kmarts, while the remaining 50 stores will be closed
The retailer's owner Wesfarmers is shrinking the struggling chain.
With more than 280 Target stores in Australia, the restructure could see more than half of the Target store network gone.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...e-closed-down-others-to-be-converted/12275390
 
basilio said:
Target stores are now the target. .:)
Big holes in retail shopping centres and in regional Australia

Target shuts up to 75 stores and converts others to Kmart, putting up to 1,300 jobs at risk
Up to 167 Target and Target Country stores will be shut or converted to Kmart sites, putting as many as 1,300 jobs at risk.
Key points:

  • Between 10 to 25 Target stores will close
    • An additional 10 to 40 Target stores will be converted to Kmarts
    • About 52 Target Country stores will be converted to Kmarts, while the remaining 50 stores will be closed
The retailer's owner Wesfarmers is shrinking the struggling chain.
With more than 280 Target stores in Australia, the restructure could see more than half of the Target store network gone.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...e-closed-down-others-to-be-converted/12275390
Click to expand...
This was flagged months ago.

Target as it was is gone.

Having looked through the WES announcement it is a good decision for WES holders.

Kmart will take up the slack and rebranding of many stores will occur.

Maximum job losses will be 1000.

gg
 

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