The state of the economy at the street level

[Dona Ferentes]

as good an input as any .... from IDP Education

Current regulatory and market outlook
Since the FY24 results werecommunicated in August last year, there has been further policy restrictions and increased uncertainty in the international student market. Noting these changes to the market, and assuming no further change in key immigration and visa policy settings, IDP expects that the size of the international education market will contract.
If current trends continue, international student volumes, as measured by the total number of new international students commencing study in IDP’s six key destination markets, are expected to decline by 20 – 30 per cent in FY25 relative to the volumes reported for FY24.

 

[wayneL]

The Perth Magic Millions yearling sales were last weekend. I didn't personally go, but by all accounts it was overall disappointing.

It has been my observation that yearling sales are a heads up about what's happening under the surface of the economy, so FWIW.

 

[over9k]

as good an input as any .... from IDP Education

Current regulatory and market outlook
Since the FY24 results werecommunicated in August last year, there has been further policy restrictions and increased uncertainty in the international student market. Noting these changes to the market, and assuming no further change in key immigration and visa policy settings, IDP expects that the size of the international education market will contract.
If current trends continue, international student volumes, as measured by the total number of new international students commencing study in IDP’s six key destination markets, are expected to decline by 20 – 30 per cent in FY25 relative to the volumes reported for FY24.

Fcuking GOOD.

Only 70-80 per cent more to go.

 

[moXJO]

So there's a trend of young people shoplifting food so they can eat and posting items they took on socials

 

[qldfrog]

So there's a trend of young people shoplifting food so they can eat and posting items they took on socials

If they post, it is just wankers attitude...
Not needs..
30 bucks a month or more of phone bill can pay a couple of meals.

 

[qldfrog]

The economy is going to get a boost soon, cyclone Alfred is most probably coming our SE Qld way .
I doubt it will be a cyclone by the time it reach Brisbane area but a lot if water and waves
I believe the sunny coast would be mostly spared but brisvegas could get a lot of water
It will be a boost for the economy past the event, paid by the insurers...
I am clear of any.
Obviously, the following year, the economic sugar pill is gone, premiums hit the roof and the economy is hammered further but yeap, a temp shot up till end of 2025

 

[divs4ever]

The economy is going to get a boost soon, cyclone Alfred is most probably coming our SE Qld way .
I doubt it will be a cyclone by the time it reach Brisbane area but a lot if water and waves
I believe the sunny coast would be mostly spared but brisvegas could get a lot of water
It will be a boost for the economy past the event, paid by the insurers...
I am clear of any.
Obviously, the following year, the economic sugar pill is gone, premiums hit the roof and the economy is hammered further but yeap, a temp shot up till end of 2025

only SUN is remotely near a target price for me ( about $14 for ' a new share ex div special div and capital return )

i hold SUN , TWR , QBE and IAG , HOWEVER i did overhear a conversation about insurance premiums , and wonder if 'customer churn ' will come back ( customers searching for a better deal )

 

[farmerge]

only SUN is remotely near a target price for me ( about $14 for ' a new share ex div special div and capital return )

i hold SUN , TWR , QBE and IAG , HOWEVER i did overhear a conversation about insurance premiums , and wonder if 'customer churn ' will come back ( customers searching for a better deal )

@divs4ever Customers changing insurers is a certainty.
Though we have regular rises to our premiums each year I have stuck with them for about40 years.
After last years storm and fires and this years events I reckon I am getting close to equal

 

[divs4ever]

@divs4ever Customers changing insurers is a certainty.
Though we have regular rises to our premiums each year I have stuck with them for about 40 years.
After last years storm and fires and this years events I reckon I am getting close to equal

the government here is part of the problem , these lunatics ( at the most polite ) have two properties labelled 'flood zones ' one has not flooded in more than 50 years ( not even one inch at the letter box base ) the other is 44 feet above river level AND on the inside bend on that river , meaning at worst one would expect it to become a mid-river island ( unless Noah is building another Ark )

and the farm .. well it will be interesting to see if they try 'flood zone on the farm more than 1500 above see level

in which case ALL their head-offices will be underwater so you won't be able to make a claim , if needed

BUT the climate grift is starting to unravel , the only real flood will be mass-sackings in government and financials ( very difficult to get a mortgage without insurance cover ) so home prices will plummet

 

[farmerge]

the government here is part of the problem , these lunatics ( at the most polite ) have two properties labelled 'flood zones ' one has not flooded in more than 50 years ( not even one inch at the letter box base ) the other is 44 feet above river level AND on the inside bend on that river , meaning at worst one would expect it to become a mid-river island ( unless Noah is building another Ark )

and the farm .. well it will be interesting to see if they try 'flood zone on the farm more than 1500 above see level

in which case ALL their head-offices will be underwater so you won't be able to make a claim , if needed

BUT the climate grift is starting to unravel , the only real flood will be mass-sackings in government and financials ( very difficult to get a mortgage without insurance cover ) so home prices will plummet

@divs4ever Had a similar instance many, many years a with a previous insurer allocating our property as a flood zone area.
Almost in the highest level above sea level.
When I questioned this and the location of Perth CBD in relation to us, oophs a mistake
Perhaps the CBD is in the Flood Zone.
When I suggested he wouldn't know if his a*se was on fire, met with a blank look.
Changed insurers to the current one all those years ago over that.

 

[divs4ever]

well the property near the river is regularly CUT OFF by floods about once a year on average and sure the drainage could be better ( if the council/main roads , maintained the drains )

but in 50 years ( including THREE occasions when Queen Street in the Brisbane center suffered flood damage ) the house block on that land has never been flooded ( otherwise half of Logan would be a swamp )

but if these 'professionals ' want to ruin there reputation ( and they have several times ) who am i to stop them

 

[divs4ever]

oh BTW that same property is in drought danger zone ... for the last 35 years ( a HUGE sign tells you so on the main road 20 yards up the main drag )

so the river ( which i don't ever remember being dry ) causes dangerous floods in a prescribed permanent drought area .. despite the 'wet patch ' ( chest deep ) on the main road corner

but the council surveyor found that ( the hard way ) ROFL ( after he was warned about it ) , you might have thought the reeds would have given the game away ( but no i was wrong again ) , then there was the council engineer when we put in a dam so as to drain the 'wet patch ' .. demanded the impact assessment for if the 'dam wall failed ' which had me doubled up in laughter the submitted plan was for a one meter deep hole in the ground (' that dam wall ' was over 120 meters wide , and then there was the main road to help keep the 'wall stiff )

life would be so dull without the dullards in government

 

[wayneL]

https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/outsiders/australia-has-been-in-a-per-capita-recession-for-seven-quarters/video/0f7dcd3dfbfef0f1b9d0da407d36e56c

Australia has been in a per capita recession for ‘seven quarters’​

10 hours ago

Sky News host Rita Panahi says Australia being in a per capita recession for “seven quarters” is “forgotten about”.
“One of the most underreported stories at the moment is that we are in a per capita recession,” Ms Panahi said.
“We’ve been in it for seven quarters now

 

[divs4ever]

https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/outsiders/australia-has-been-in-a-per-capita-recession-for-seven-quarters/video/0f7dcd3dfbfef0f1b9d0da407d36e56c

Australia has been in a per capita recession for ‘seven quarters’​

10 hours ago

Sky News host Rita Panahi says Australia being in a per capita recession for “seven quarters” is “forgotten about”.
“One of the most underreported stories at the moment is that we are in a per capita recession,” Ms Panahi said.
“We’ve been in it for seven quarters now

sooo i am not as insensitive as many allege

poor , poor cynical me

i keep on doubting official statistics and sadly i find out i was correct ( to doubt )

 

[moXJO]

Unemployment and underemployment is on the rise. I think we have been in recession for a while with government covering with govt expansion.

 

[divs4ever]

Unemployment and underemployment is on the rise. I think we have been in recession for a while with government covering with govt expansion.

'per capita recession ' for the last seven quarters according to one analyst ( and that feels about right to me )

 

[over9k]

Unemployment and underemployment is on the rise. I think we have been in recession for a while with government covering with govt expansion.

Noooooooo that doesn't sound like government

 

[moXJO]

Noooooooo that doesn't sound like government

Do you think Australia is actually cooked at this point and government is just hiding it. I'm seeing huge failings out there at the moment.

 

[over9k]

Do you think Australia is actually cooked at this point

It was long before this point.

 

[moXJO]

It was long before this point.

I'm a little worried albo was dancing around at Mardi gras while the Chinese did a lap round the country with no push back. We are very open to invasion. Hopefully the politicians are the first to go.