Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The state of the economy at the street level

Inflation still an issue due to a combination of global money printing and corporate gouging/profiteering.


"When the Australia Institute looked at the numbers, we concluded that excessive corporate profits were largely responsible for driving the lion’s share of the burst of inflation that followed COVID lockdowns. The findings were dismissed and some people even demanded we retract our research. However, the OECD—run by former Finance Minister Matthias Corman—released research that used a similar methodology and found basically the same thing as the Australia Institute: that corporate profits contributed far more to Australia’s rise in inflation than wages and other employee costs."



"The thinktank has released evidence of what it calls a “profit price spiral”, arguing big business earnings account for 69% of the inflation that is above the reserve bank’s target range of 2-3%."

Increases in labour costs account for just 18% of the inflation above what the RBA wants to see before it eases interest rate increases. The most recent GDP data shows Australian businesses increased prices by a total of $160bn a year above taxes, labour and other costs.

Stanford says the evidence shows the additional billions of dollars in company profits have led the soaring inflation Australia is experiencing.


And that without those profit gains, inflation since the pandemic would have risen much more slowly, at just 2.7%.

Stanford says the research shows company profits, not workers’ wages, are the culprit for Australia’s inflation issues and that the RBA and government should be focusing on those rather than targeting workers through rising interest rates and low wage growth.

“We’ve been told a story that workers need to restrict wage growth and accept a permanent reduction in living standards in order to fix inflation,” he said.

“This evidence shows that’s an economic fairytale.

“ABS data shows that without excess price hikes through the pandemic, inflation would likely be within the RBA target band, and hence there would be no need for the nine extreme, back-to-back interest rate rises that are crushing households and mortgage holders, fuelling the cost of living crisis.”

Note: both articles are from February this year but I believe the same trend has basically continued since then.

Just to be clear the evidence shows wage increases (which have been below the rate of inflation for years) have very little to do with inflation despite the nonsense that people like Value Collector keep espousing.
 
According to an article from a month ago



www.afr.com



Sydney house prices at a record high but growth slows


Brisbane, Perth and Melbourne are poised to hit new milestones in the next six to 12 months but prices in Sydney and Adelaide are likely to moderate.

www.afr.com
www.afr.com




Median house price in Sydney is $1,662,448

Meanwhile there are still plenty of people living in Sydney with full time jobs getting paid under $30 per hour. According to the statistics less than one third of people living in Sydney earn over $2000 per week ($104,000 per year) in a city where median house price is $1,662,448. Its not just house prices.

Cost of living in Sydney is out of control, $7 - 9 for an almond croissant from an upmarket bakery. If you want for example a large hot chocolate from a place that makes it with melted chocolate (as opposed to cocoa powder) it costs anywhere from $6 - $9 depending on the place. So literally you could be paying $13 - $18 just to get a almond croissant with a large hot chocolate. When I recently came back from overseas and took a taxi from the Sydney airport to my house it was a 20 or 25 minute ride and I paid $80. If you want eat lunch in Sydney anything above the level of entry level fast food (e.g. Mcdonalds, Pizza Hut, etc) you are generally paying $25 - $30 per meal. And I don't mean an actual restaurant for example a pub weekday lunch special (if you add a drink to it) or premium fast food (.e.g Grill'd, etc).

Wages in Australia generally but especially in Sydney and Melbourne need to rise a lot for things to be sustainable and also a lot more houses and apartments need to get built.

The incompetent govenrment keeps restricting construction with their bull**** red tape. For example even a lot of boomer generation retirees that want to build granny flats (which would provide affordable rental accomodation) in their backyards cannot get it approved because council rules are too strict.
 
Also a lot of the initial inflation happened during COVID due to morons believing governments and the the WHO and allowing governments around the world to lock down countries due to the fake pandemic known as COVID. COVID was one of the biggest scams of all time.

The war in Ukraine (highly inflationary) was also completely unnecessary and was another war started by America. Right at the beginning of the war Ukraine wanted to sign a peace treaty with Russia and end the war but the U.S.A. didn't allow it to happen.
 
Inflation still an issue due to a combination of global money printing and corporate gouging/profiteering.


"When the Australia Institute looked at the numbers, we concluded that excessive corporate profits were largely responsible for driving the lion’s share of the burst of inflation that followed COVID lockdowns. The findings were dismissed and some people even demanded we retract our research. However, the OECD—run by former Finance Minister Matthias Corman—released research that used a similar methodology and found basically the same thing as the Australia Institute: that corporate profits contributed far more to Australia’s rise in inflation than wages and other employee costs."



"The thinktank has released evidence of what it calls a “profit price spiral”, arguing big business earnings account for 69% of the inflation that is above the reserve bank’s target range of 2-3%."

Increases in labour costs account for just 18% of the inflation above what the RBA wants to see before it eases interest rate increases. The most recent GDP data shows Australian businesses increased prices by a total of $160bn a year above taxes, labour and other costs.

Stanford says the evidence shows the additional billions of dollars in company profits have led the soaring inflation Australia is experiencing.


And that without those profit gains, inflation since the pandemic would have risen much more slowly, at just 2.7%.

Stanford says the research shows company profits, not workers’ wages, are the culprit for Australia’s inflation issues and that the RBA and government should be focusing on those rather than targeting workers through rising interest rates and low wage growth.

“We’ve been told a story that workers need to restrict wage growth and accept a permanent reduction in living standards in order to fix inflation,” he said.

“This evidence shows that’s an economic fairytale.

“ABS data shows that without excess price hikes through the pandemic, inflation would likely be within the RBA target band, and hence there would be no need for the nine extreme, back-to-back interest rate rises that are crushing households and mortgage holders, fuelling the cost of living crisis.”

Note: both articles are from February this year but I believe the same trend has basically continued since then.

Just to be clear the evidence shows wage increases (which have been below the rate of inflation for years) have very little to do with inflation despite the nonsense that people like Value Collector keep espousing.
one reason wages trail inflation , is because the least production staff are the first to go ( god forbid that a business sends back some leased forklifts , trucks or company cars first )

and less staff translates to less bargaining power ( at wage negotiations ) and may even slightly improve productivity ( on average )

the OTHER reason wages trail inflation is the poor worker has to 'guess a number ' and then argue the case for a wage rise ( successfully or not ) those negotiations can take a year ( or more )

HOWEVER the last thing a competitive business battling rising costs needs , is rising wage costs ( squeezing sales and/or margins ) in addition to other pressures

it is going to be real interesting when business starts switching to robotics , in tough times how easy will it be to cancel leases on excess robots ?
 
the OTHER reason wages trail inflation is the poor worker has to 'guess a number ' and then argue the case for a wage rise
Another is simply that in government and big business, CPI is itself a direct input into the wage setting process for the majority of the workforce.

Negotiations for any large group are often on the basis that a CPI increase is assumed, what's being negotiated is any variation from that. Business will want CPI-x, unions will want CPI+x. Noting that until agreement is reached nothing happens, the CPI is a "default" but only once someone agrees what x is to be.

It will always lag for that reason. You're always getting last year's CPI passed through next year. With the added risk that the business goes broke on the way down - because that's the point where wages growth outpaces revenue growth. For business it works nicely on the way up, hammers them on the way down.

That doesn't apply to workers on individual contracts and I assume that's not how small business works but for generic roles in government and big business it's common. :2twocents
 
Another is simply that in government and big business, CPI is itself a direct input into the wage setting process for the majority of the workforce.

Negotiations for any large group are often on the basis that a CPI increase is assumed, what's being negotiated is any variation from that. Business will want CPI-x, unions will want CPI+x. Noting that until agreement is reached nothing happens, the CPI is a "default" but only once someone agrees what x is to be.

It will always lag for that reason. You're always getting last year's CPI passed through next year. With the added risk that the business goes broke on the way down - because that's the point where wages growth outpaces revenue growth. For business it works nicely on the way up, hammers them on the way down.

That doesn't apply to workers on individual contracts and I assume that's not how small business works but for generic roles in government and big business it's common. :2twocents
I get what you are saying but in reality wages growth has lagged CPI for a number of years now.

Part of the reason is some years ago the federal Liberal/Coalition government implemented a wage freeze on public sector employees (that has only recently been lifted). Traditionally the government being an extremely large employer this helped set a reference level for wages which set the tone for other industries. Without upward pressure in public sector wages the private sector lost wages momentum. The other thing is that the fair work commission has in general been miserly with award wage increases over the past 5 - 10 years and again that has flow on effects onto other jobs as a reference point because it encompasses a large number of employees.

On top of this salaried professional employees have been squeezed with minimal wage increases while unpaid overtime has been incrementally piled on. If you get a 2% wage increase but your unpaid overtime goes up by an average of 1 hour per week your hourly rate actually went backwards. Unpaid overtime for salaried employees is something like 5 - 7 hours per week on average now. The 38 hour work week is effectively dead for salaried employees.

Also unions have been structurally losing membership, relevance and bargaining power over the past 30 years. This also effects negotiations for enterprise agreements.

Also labour market has generally been weak and this affects wages growth. Yes headline ABS unemployment is not overly high at a level of around 3.8% currently. But ABS uses a weasel definition of unemployment to pump up the figures plus you also need to factor underemployment which is a sign of labour market slack and also influences wages.

May 13, 2024

Australian unemployment increases in April to 9.7% – overall labour under-utilisation at highest since October 2020​


In April 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (up 1% to 9.7% of the workforce) despite overall employment remaining near its all-time high at over 14.2 million.

In addition to the increase in unemployment, there was also a slight increase in under-employment, up 18,000 to 1,594,000. These combined increases mean a massive 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%) were unemployed or under-employed in April – the highest level of total labour under-utilisation for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million) during the early months of the pandemic.
The April Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).
 
I get what you are saying but in reality wages growth has lagged CPI for a number of years now.

Part of the reason is some years ago the federal Liberal/Coalition government implemented a wage freeze on public sector employees (that has only recently been lifted). Traditionally the government being an extremely large employer this helped set a reference level for wages which set the tone for other industries. Without upward pressure in public sector wages the private sector lost wages momentum. The other thing is that the fair work commission has in general been miserly with award wage increases over the past 5 - 10 years and again that has flow on effects onto other jobs as a reference point because it encompasses a large number of employees.

On top of this salaried professional employees have been squeezed with minimal wage increases while unpaid overtime has been incrementally piled on. If you get a 2% wage increase but your unpaid overtime goes up by an average of 1 hour per week your hourly rate actually went backwards. Unpaid overtime for salaried employees is something like 5 - 7 hours per week on average now. The 38 hour work week is effectively dead for salaried employees.

Also unions have been structurally losing membership, relevance and bargaining power over the past 30 years. This also effects negotiations for enterprise agreements.

Also labour market has generally been weak and this affects wages growth. Yes headline ABS unemployment is not overly high at a level of around 3.8% currently. But ABS uses a weasel definition of unemployment to pump up the figures plus you also need to factor underemployment which is a sign of labour market slack and also influences wages.

May 13, 2024

Australian unemployment increases in April to 9.7% – overall labour under-utilisation at highest since October 2020​


In April 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (up 1% to 9.7% of the workforce) despite overall employment remaining near its all-time high at over 14.2 million.

In addition to the increase in unemployment, there was also a slight increase in under-employment, up 18,000 to 1,594,000. These combined increases mean a massive 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%) were unemployed or under-employed in April – the highest level of total labour under-utilisation for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million) during the early months of the pandemic.
The April Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).
Add to that the following and you have a real mess, record company profits causing inflation, record company insovencies and according to Jimbo record wage rises.
Someones maths is off somewhere, it seems like it depends on who you ask.

In 2023–2024, Australia experienced record levels of business insolvencies, which were higher than during the Global Financial Crisis. According to CreditorWatch, the average insolvency rate increased by 38% year-on-year across all industries, and the total number of insolvencies was 34% higher than the previous year. This was also 41% higher than the pre-COVID maximum.
 
Add to that the following and you have a real mess, record company profits causing inflation, record company insovencies and according to Jimbo record wage rises.
Someones maths is off somewhere, it seems like it depends on who you ask.

In 2023–2024, Australia experienced record levels of business insolvencies, which were higher than during the Global Financial Crisis. According to CreditorWatch, the average insolvency rate increased by 38% year-on-year across all industries, and the total number of insolvencies was 34% higher than the previous year. This was also 41% higher than the pre-COVID maximum.
Big businesses record money, small ones crashed...
 
People are starting to run out of money, non-discretion spending would be at an all-time low. They will have to start looking at lowering the IR sooner or later, it's all the poor areas that go first and then it hits the food chain up the ladder.


This chart is from 2023
1724804567509.png
 
People are starting to run out of money, non-discretion spending would be at an all-time low. They will have to start looking at lowering the IR sooner or later, it's all the poor areas that go first and then it hits the food chain up the ladder.


This chart is from 2023
View attachment 183290

Went out to dinner last night, premium suburb right next to the city, didn't know what we felt like so walked the main strip checking out the options. We were shocked to see a very popular up-market hamburger shop, gone and replaced with another, looked nice but only a few people inside. There was not a single place that was even close to quarter capacity, some of the restaurant/cafes did not even bother to open. I saw plenty of Uber pick-ups, but very few people out for dinner.

It is expensive to eat out, especially when wanting healthy quality options. And we can't blame the businesses, they have massive overheads, especially electricity and rent.
 
Went out to dinner last night, premium suburb right next to the city, didn't know what we felt like so walked the main strip checking out the options. We were shocked to see a very popular up-market hamburger shop, gone and replaced with another, looked nice but only a few people inside. There was not a single place that was even close to quarter capacity, some of the restaurant/cafes did not even bother to open. I saw plenty of Uber pick-ups, but very few people out for dinner.

It is expensive to eat out, especially when wanting healthy quality options. And we can't blame the businesses, they have massive overheads, especially electricity and rent.
We generally eat out two to three times a week but just local in the Swan Valley or nearby. We have noticed that it is very quiet too.
 
Today had lunch with my nephew who runs a large Pub in a touristy spot.
Told me he had gone to see his accountant, as he thought that things were bleak, and the money flow was well down.
He was think about more belt tightening, maybe less staff, fewer opening hours.
His accountant, who provdes services top quite a few Pubs, restaurants and clubs told him not to worry, he was still doing ok.
But then the accountants next sentence was "unlike so many others in the industry".
It seems that during and immediately after covid, CUB was lending money to pubs to keep them open, and to keep them in the CUB fold for beer supplies.
the theory was that once the COVID lock down finished, everything would go back to normal, and people would be eating out and spending up big.
Well, in Victoria at least, this has failed to eventuate.
Problem is, CUB is expecting this money to be paid back, and it seems a lot of publicans are just holding their heads above water or even just holding their breath, and are in no position to even start paying back these loans.
The accountant said he expects to see more than a handful of pubs and other licensed premises being forced into fire sales.
Mick
 
Today had lunch with my nephew who runs a large Pub in a touristy spot.
Told me he had gone to see his accountant, as he thought that things were bleak, and the money flow was well down.
He was think about more belt tightening, maybe less staff, fewer opening hours.
His accountant, who provdes services top quite a few Pubs, restaurants and clubs told him not to worry, he was still doing ok.
But then the accountants next sentence was "unlike so many others in the industry".
It seems that during and immediately after covid, CUB was lending money to pubs to keep them open, and to keep them in the CUB fold for beer supplies.
the theory was that once the COVID lock down finished, everything would go back to normal, and people would be eating out and spending up big.
Well, in Victoria at least, this has failed to eventuate.
Problem is, CUB is expecting this money to be paid back, and it seems a lot of publicans are just holding their heads above water or even just holding their breath, and are in no position to even start paying back these loans.
The accountant said he expects to see more than a handful of pubs and other licensed premises being forced into fire sales.
Mick
The pubs in the city are in a bad way at least up my end Exhibition Street.
The workers don't come in Friday anymore. All the pubs used to be packed Friday lunch but now are all half empty.

The political, federal and state government workers aren't around. The Telstra building is dead. It's quite sad + everyone is tight and the tax on beer keeps increasing.
 
In Sydney go out on a Friday or Saturday night and you will quickly see its very dead compared to 10 years ago. There is no vibrancy anymore.
I recently came back from a holiday where I visited some very small European countries. And I kid you not cities in Europe with 200,000 population or less even were more vibrant on a Friday or Saturday night (and indeed weeknights also) than Sydney which is a city of over 5 million people!!
 
I recently came back from a holiday where I visited some very small European countries. And I kid you not cities in Europe with 200,000 population or less even were more vibrant on a Friday or Saturday night (and indeed weeknights also) than Sydney which is a city of over 5 million people!!
Melbourne CBD is still is massive at night. Seriously busy, rooftop bars, bands, nightclubs, gin places, at least 10 theatres, hundreds of restaurants but you need the day trade also. They can't all survive, the sandwich bars are struggling also. Southbank is dead, believe half the restaurants have closed.

Sydney has always been pretty quiet from my visits It's all RSL clubs and suburban haunts; isn't that where people go?...and the beach?
 
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