The state of the economy at the street level

[Tyler Durden]

As for cars, there seem to be many more Audis, BMWs and mercedes these days.

Yes I have definitely noticed this! It's almost like the Audi is the new Holden!

 

[sptrawler]

One observation I've noticed here in Sydney is there seems to be a noticeable amount of petrol stations closing. Not really sure why, but then again, I guess you don't really need one on each side of the road. I assume that residential property will be built over it, even though the land has to remain vacant for 5 years (I think?).

Most large corporations are rationalising, ie centralising. Petrol companies would be looking at margins and closing franchises that are covered by a more popular nearby or better located franchise.

The Swan Brewery in Perth, which is a reasonably modern factory has been closed and I believe Boags is making Emu Export cans, in Tassie.

There are two examples we know of, I bet there are heaps more.

 

[sptrawler]

I can definitely confirm point #2 in the inner west. Apartments are springing up everywhere. As for cars, there seem to be many more Audis, BMWs and mercedes these days.

The common denominator in the thread so far is residential building, houses and apartments. Hope we end up with enough people to fill them.

 

[Wysiwyg]

The common denominator in the thread so far is residential building, houses and apartments. Hope we end up with enough people to fill them.

Well as real estate becomes increasingly less affordable with companies downsizing and needing fewer employees then renting is the only alternative. Pinkboy's observation says much.

 

[sptrawler]

Well as real estate becomes increasingly less affordable with companies downsizing and needing fewer employees then renting is the only alternative. Pinkboy's observation says much.

Ah, but if downsizing causes unemployment, who pays the rent.

 

[McLovin]

Most large corporations are rationalising, ie centralising. Petrol companies would be looking at margins and closing franchises that are covered by a more popular nearby or better located franchise.

The number of petrol stations peaked in the early late 60's/early 70's and has been in a looong decline ever since. That's even with the growth in the number of cars. Today it's about 30% of the number at their peak. With more and more younger people moving into the inner city and not having cars, you'd have to expect the trend to continue. Oh and the trend is observable in most developed countries.

 

[sptrawler]

The number of petrol stations peaked in the early late 60's/early 70's and has been in a looong decline ever since. That's even with the growth in the number of cars. Today it's about 30% of the number at their peak. With more and more younger people moving into the inner city and not having cars, you'd have to expect the trend to continue. Oh and the trend is observable in most developed countries.

That's interesting McLovin, another fact relating to petrol stations is the improvement in car fuel economy.
I have travelled a lot from Perth to Kalgoorlie and return, due to family comitments. Over the years a lot of the fuel stations on the road have closed. When I talk to the owners they all say most cars can now do the trip on one tank of fuel, so no one stops for fuel anymore only food.

 

[CanOz]

Try to find a fuel station in China, good luck

Then when you do locate it its like try and spot it through the vegetation....not much motivation for cutting the trees back around the sign when you're a state owned company and your selling something everyone needs...just let them try and find you!

I think Australia is definitely in a transition phase from a resource economy to a service economy. I was amazed at the sky cranes in Brisbane, i counted more there from our hotel than from our house here in China. One of our friends there is in construction and he's very busy....mostly trying to keep the union guys working...

We were on the GC and it was dead, but i guess that is to be expected for the time of year....

 

[CanOz]

...there seem to be many more Audis, BMWs and mercedes these days.

lol...i mentioned this to my wife and she said ... "Chinese". Its likely a generalization but its the first thing that came to my mind as well. No one likes the German cars as much as the Chinese...

 

[Craton]

In my area of Far West, NSW. No prizes for guessing the locale...

Since 2013:
One IGA store, closed down
Old Royal Hotel, closed down

Commonwealth Motors, closed down

Local Holden dealership, sold to a Sth Aust. interest.

Two fuel stations, both Mobile, closed down.

This year:
Beaurepairs, closed down
Carousel Jewellers, closed down
Cullen Jewellers, closed down
Broken Earth Café, closed down

West Darling Hotel, closed down.

Legion Club, Went into administration but closed down within a month.
Musicians Club, Went into administration, still trading but Admins given it one year to turn around.

Wentworth Services Club, closed down.

Enterprise Development Committee, mostly govt funded, closed down.

City Council under huge revenue declines. Jobs will go from top down starting Q3.

Perilya, lay offs
CBH, lay offs.

There are others that I can't recall at present.

On the positive, sort of, Coles opened a brand new full blown Coles store and associated complex last month, several shop fronts in the complex are vacant but. Cost the closure of the old store and leaving a huge hole in that area.

Since 2009~10, my company has reduced staff from 9 FT & 1PT to just 2FT and 1PT.

Do I see improvement in the near future?
No, not really...but its the same for so many of Australia's remote and regional areas. Declining and aging demographic and the kids, like mine, off to the bright lights. Govt services reducing or closing, commodity prices having an impact, cost of goods and services going up and up and up and on it goes.

What I do see is the big names, the national and multinationals gaining an ever bigger slice of the pie and that only means, playing on their terms and paying their prices.

 

[Smurf1976]

That's interesting McLovin, another fact relating to petrol stations is the improvement in car fuel economy.

Improvement in the roads too.

Go back a generation and even though it's only 200km, driving Hobart to Launceston required going through every small town along the way. Today with a couple of exceptions they have all been by-passed.

So you have the towns themselves mostly by-passed, fuel consumption such that practically every vehicle on the road can very easily do the trip without filling up, and also the great improvement in ride quality and ease of driving modern vehicles. Put all that together and there's simply no reason why anyone would stop unless they're intentionally going into one of the small towns for whatever reason but the vast majority will just drive A to B without stopping.

It's also perhaps worth mentioning that we've hit "peak cars". If you look at car travel on a per capita basis then it's trending down in most developed countries.

That also has largely brought an end to "car culture" - it was a very much bigger thing in the past than it is today. Whereas once any male aged 18 without a drivers' license was considered a freak, these days many just don't see the point. It's harder and more costly to get a license, living a city there's less need for it, and they have zero interest in cars other than as a means of getting from A to B. Hotted up Toranas have given way to stock standard Hyundai, Mazda etc cars. Hence things like the closure of Holden and Ford - unthinkable a generation ago for cultural reasons as much as anything else but now it's actually happening.

So we still have cars just as we still have steel and we still have agriculture. But they're all in the past so far as pushing growth is concerned.

 

[sptrawler]

Improvement in the roads too.

Go back a generation and even though it's only 200km, driving Hobart to Launceston required going through every small town along the way. Today with a couple of exceptions they have all been by-passed.

So you have the towns themselves mostly by-passed, fuel consumption such that practically every vehicle on the road can very easily do the trip without filling up, and also the great improvement in ride quality and ease of driving modern vehicles. Put all that together and there's simply no reason why anyone would stop unless they're intentionally going into one of the small towns for whatever reason but the vast majority will just drive A to B without stopping.

It's also perhaps worth mentioning that we've hit "peak cars". If you look at car travel on a per capita basis then it's trending down in most developed countries.

That also has largely brought an end to "car culture" - it was a very much bigger thing in the past than it is today. Whereas once any male aged 18 without a drivers' license was considered a freak, these days many just don't see the point. It's harder and more costly to get a license, living a city there's less need for it, and they have zero interest in cars other than as a means of getting from A to B. Hotted up Toranas have given way to stock standard Hyundai, Mazda etc cars. Hence things like the closure of Holden and Ford - unthinkable a generation ago for cultural reasons as much as anything else but now it's actually happening.

So we still have cars just as we still have steel and we still have agriculture. But they're all in the past so far as pushing growth is concerned.

Continuing on the car theme. I was reading an interview with the manager of Mazda, he indicated it was only a matter of time before electric vehicles made petrol engines obsolete. He also made mention of the massive amounts of money being poured into battery technology.
This will cause a lot of ripple effect through the economy, it will be a lot worse than losing Holden and Ford.IMO

I suppose diesel is another issue, hauling massive weights over long distances, will mean diesel trucks, trains will be around for a while.

 

[Tyler Durden]

Just wanted to say thanks to everyone for their input so far, it's been really interesting to read about people's first hand experiences.

I've noticed a couple of mens formal clothing stores closing in the Sydney CBD. I reckon one would have been there for at least 10 years, and the other which is in the process of closing probably has been around for at least 20 years.

I remember reading a news article a while ago (can't find the link anymore) suggesting that tailors may be on the chopping block, given there is now new technology where you can step into a machine which then sends the measurements to China to have your own tailor suit made.

Not sure how well received that will be, but for me personally, I have been buying business shirts, ties and cufflinks online as they are cheaper, and with shirts, once you find your size you are pretty much set. For suits I still prefer going into a brick and mortar, but along the lines of DJs or Myer.

 

[satanoperca]

Just wanted to say thanks to everyone for their input so far, it's been really interesting to read about people's first hand experiences.

I've noticed a couple of mens formal clothing stores closing in the Sydney CBD. I reckon one would have been there for at least 10 years, and the other which is in the process of closing probably has been around for at least 20 years.

I remember reading a news article a while ago (can't find the link anymore) suggesting that tailors may be on the chopping block, given there is now new technology where you can step into a machine which then sends the measurements to China to have your own tailor suit made.

Not sure how well received that will be, but for me personally, I have been buying business shirts, ties and cufflinks online as they are cheaper, and with shirts, once you find your size you are pretty much set. For suits I still prefer going into a brick and mortar, but along the lines of DJs or Myer.

The new world order, we get to dress well for less.

 

[sptrawler]

Just wanted to say thanks to everyone for their input so far, it's been really interesting to read about people's first hand experiences.

I've noticed a couple of mens formal clothing stores closing in the Sydney CBD. I reckon one would have been there for at least 10 years, and the other which is in the process of closing probably has been around for at least 20 years.

I remember reading a news article a while ago (can't find the link anymore) suggesting that tailors may be on the chopping block, given there is now new technology where you can step into a machine which then sends the measurements to China to have your own tailor suit made.

Not sure how well received that will be, but for me personally, I have been buying business shirts, ties and cufflinks online as they are cheaper, and with shirts, once you find your size you are pretty much set. For suits I still prefer going into a brick and mortar, but along the lines of DJs or Myer.

I never had any problems buying my overalls.

Finding cufflinks to fit them was always a problem.lol Sorry off topic.

 

[sptrawler]

Here is another indication discretionary spending is tightening.
Public school enrolments are overtaking private schools, in W.A

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-22/wa-public-school-growth-overtakes-private/5471568

 

[Clifton]

Something Ive noticed in Perth in the prolifaration of massage parlours in shopping centres etc, and nail bars, Im told that a lot of these are cash only, you can see whats going on here,

 

[pinkboy]

Something Ive noticed in Perth in the prolifaration of massage parlours in shopping centres etc, and nail bars, Im told that a lot of these are cash only, you can see whats going on here,

Lots of these shops have the 'white bucket till' under the counter! ;-)

 

[Judd]

I never had any problems buying my overalls.

Finding cufflinks to fit them was always a problem.lol Sorry off topic.

And I always thought the matching cummerbund was the main issue. Well, there you go; live and learn.

 

[waterbottle]

This has probably been going on for a while since the GFC, but retailers are STILL in a ever-lasting sales mode. One example is a shop in Broadway Shopping Centre (NSW). I swear it has had 3 closing down sales in the past 2 years, each time offering up to 70% off and yet it is still open!