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The state of the economy at the street level

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Some Coles supermarkets have closed their home delivery section, so looks like people aren't ordering groceries from home as much now.
 
I have recently gotten into the sneaker collecting arena. Quite fascinating really, some 'limited' sneakers, retail for $250 and then can fetch up to $2000 or more on the resale market. People who go after these limited sneakers may camp outside the store for up to 7 days, so when you break it down, the profit per hour is pretty slim.

Those who are lucky enough to get a pair will mostly resell and lock in the quick profit.

For other types of sneakers, there can still be a gain made, just not as much. What I see a lot of is, someone is lucky enough to buy a pair for $250, they wear it once or twice, take some photos and show it off on instagram or facebook, then sell it for around $200-230 (assuming it is not too limited, in which case it would fetch more than the initial $250).

What this shows me is that these people actually can't afford the $250 shoes they are purportedly buying. Instead, the effect of what they are doing is paying $20-30 to wear it once and then on-sell it. So although the instagram pictures may make them look very well off to be able to afford these shoes, they are in reality rather short of it.

It will be interesting to see if this sneaker bubble bursts before the property bubble.
 
Tyler Durden said:
What this shows me is that these people actually can't afford the $250 shoes they are purportedly buying. Instead, the effect of what they are doing is paying $20-30 to wear it once and then on-sell it. So although the instagram pictures may make them look very well off to be able to afford these shoes, they are in reality rather short of it.

It will be interesting to see if this sneaker bubble bursts before the property bubble.
Click to expand...

Well in the N/W of W.A, I think the property bubble, has burst before the sneaker bubble.:D

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/r...mebuyers-as-pilbara-4x2-sells-for-150k/#page1
 
Walked through Chinatown in Sydney a few days ago, and noticed a lot of commercial premises are now vacant. I'm talking about the ones along Goulburn Street, Sussex Street and Dixon Street. These spots have always traditionally been occupied by Asian businesses, so it's kinda surprising to see them vacant now.
 
Ever since 2008, any sniff of less than stellar data everyone is at the ready with loads of pessimism. Perma bears are always eventually right...

If the data is good, its rigged!:banghead:

When will y'all learn that tops don't occur when pessimism is still this high?

The next crisis will be here upon our doorstep when you completely forget about the the last one ord believe it could never happen again. Exuberance is what you bears should be looking for!
 
CanOz said:
The next crisis will be here upon our doorstep when you completely forget about the the last one ord believe it could never happen again. Exuberance is what you bears should be looking for!
Click to expand...

To be fair, the Melbourne and Sydney property markets are close to this. But yes, completely agree. Just thought the debt agreement stats were interesting.

What's that saying again about the economist who was able to forecast 6 of the last 1 stock market crashes?
 
Something I find a bit unusual and interesting is unemployment statistics and how similar they are between most states.

National rate = 5.7% (July 2016)

SA = 6.4%
WA = 6.3%
Tas = 6.2%
Qld = 6.1%
Vic = 5.9%

NSW = 5.2%

ACT = 3.6%
NT = 3.5%

So there's basically no difference between SA, WA, Tas, Qld and Vic with only a modest difference between those states and NSW. Only the ACT and NT are substantially lower than the others.

All of which seems unusual when compared to the situation historically. Maybe it has happened previously, I haven't done a huge amount of research, but from what I recall it generally hasn't been the case that there's basically no difference between most states.

Thoughts as to what and why?
 
Smurf1976 said:
Something I find a bit unusual and interesting is unemployment statistics and how similar they are between most states.

National rate = 5.7% (July 2016)

SA = 6.4%
WA = 6.3%
Tas = 6.2%
Qld = 6.1%
Vic = 5.9%

NSW = 5.2%

ACT = 3.6%
NT = 3.5%

So there's basically no difference between SA, WA, Tas, Qld and Vic with only a modest difference between those states and NSW. Only the ACT and NT are substantially lower than the others.

All of which seems unusual when compared to the situation historically. Maybe it has happened previously, I haven't done a huge amount of research, but from what I recall it generally hasn't been the case that there's basically no difference between most states.

Thoughts as to what and why?
Click to expand...

If one were to view statistics showing the percentages, by state, of centrelink benefit recipients, it would likely paint a very different picture!
 
cynic said:
If one were to view statistics showing the percentages, by state, of centrelink benefit recipients, it would likely paint a very different picture!
Click to expand...
Indeed, unemployment numbers are irrelevant to the real world, they only show unemployement among a very narrow blue collar portion of the population: no unemployment figures recording any self employed/most of tradies/professionals/contractors etc etc who are now a major part of the economy, and do not parallel the official fiogures;
the tens of thousands of jobs lost in Brisbane mining offices will never popup on the radar; no centerlink benefits until the bank seize the house, no records.
Just do not believe the official figures;
my barometer is traffic on the road to the city:
based on this, in the last 3 months, things are getting better here in Brisbane with a mix of higher tradies traffic and white collars jobs increase seen in the train.rates are much lower so overall $ impact may not be that good
qldfrog not the BAS...
 
Provided the method they use to compiled employment statistics remains the same, the benchmark is relevant.:2twocents
 
CanOz said:
Provided the method they use to compiled employment statistics remains the same, the benchmark is relevant.:2twocents
Click to expand...
really: not when the world changes;
counting the number of steam engines per day might have been relevant in the 1800's not nowadays ..same;
it is relevant for blue collar jobs which have been decimated in numbers and are not significant anymore in OZ, at least not in qld
 
Maybe I'm missing something here but I always thought that unemployed was unemployed regardless of what your previous occupation was or what qualifications you have.

Is that no longer the case? Office worker loses their job, goes on welfare and somehow isn't counted in the statistics? I thought that anyone out of work would be the same in that regard?

If that's the case, only blue collar workers are counted, then unemployment is probably over 20% at the moment and rising. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
Maybe I'm missing something here but I always thought that unemployed was unemployed regardless of what your previous occupation was or what qualifications you have.

Is that no longer the case? Office worker loses their job, goes on welfare and somehow isn't counted in the statistics? I thought that anyone out of work would be the same in that regard?

If that's the case, only blue collar workers are counted, then unemployment is probably over 20% at the moment and rising. :2twocents
Click to expand...
What I mean is a lot of people are not standard employees anymore;
white collars are contractor/consultants, blue collars are tradies; factory jobs with a daily shift and a payslip every week are gone
you go from a full work allocation to maybe 7days work in a month, no statistical change; unemployment unchanged

services: you are now in a fast food or coffee shop, in a boom working 4/6 hr a day inc some week end, now maybe just helping the owners for a couple of hours a day at most; no statistical change;
so what the stats really measure is the number of full time employees who are made redundant and still unemployed/not moving (yet) to a more flexible /precarious situation;
even if we keep the same work threshold definition for unemployment, the changes in the workplace nevertheless render these more and more obsoletes and counter productive.
So my point but if it helps to believe we are still in full employment (6% is nearly there) let it be; but that is not what i see around me.
I have more faith in my road traffic/carpark capacity at the commuting train station as i have in the ABS figures.
The variation on the sum of PAYG as seen by the ATO would be more interesting/telling even if not the complete picture.
Anyone knows where/if this is available?
 
Smurf1976 said:
Maybe I'm missing something here but I always thought that unemployed was unemployed regardless of what your previous occupation was or what qualifications you have.

Is that no longer the case? Office worker loses their job, goes on welfare and somehow isn't counted in the statistics? I thought that anyone out of work would be the same in that regard?

If that's the case, only blue collar workers are counted, then unemployment is probably over 20% at the moment and rising. :2twocents
Click to expand...
Well I am in the resource industry and in the last 3 years there has been an obvious increase in redundancies and associated engineering companies have significantly reduced output. The national unemployment rate hardly showed a blip. I am confused.
 
qldfrog said:
What I mean is a lot of people are not standard employees anymore
Click to expand...

Now I get what you're saying. :)

Agreed that there's definitely an issue with the approach that someone is either employed or they're not. That really only works if hours are fixed which generally isn't the case these days for a substantial portion of the workforce.
 
qldfrog said:
What I mean is a lot of people are not standard employees anymore;
white collars are contractor/consultants, blue collars are tradies; factory jobs with a daily shift and a payslip every week are gone
you go from a full work allocation to maybe 7days work in a month, no statistical change; unemployment unchanged

services: you are now in a fast food or coffee shop, in a boom working 4/6 hr a day inc some week end, now maybe just helping the owners for a couple of hours a day at most; no statistical change;
so what the stats really measure is the number of full time employees who are made redundant and still unemployed/not moving (yet) to a more flexible /precarious situation;
even if we keep the same work threshold definition for unemployment, the changes in the workplace nevertheless render these more and more obsoletes and counter productive.
So my point but if it helps to believe we are still in full employment (6% is nearly there) let it be; but that is not what i see around me.
I have more faith in my road traffic/carpark capacity at the commuting train station as i have in the ABS figures.
The variation on the sum of PAYG as seen by the ATO would be more interesting/telling even if not the complete picture.
Anyone knows where/if this is available?
Click to expand...

That's why the ABS releases total hours worked and an underemployment rate. The underutilisation rate (unemployed + underemployed) is 13.9%.
 

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