Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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Danneman said:
Ok, I obviously had got the wrong figures... I've always suspected these numbers are fudged. I guess I tend to believe what I want to believe ;)

Anyway. I read that 65.6% of the population were available to work (i.e not pensioners or kids etc) and that would equate to 14.9 million in the workforce. With 11.43 million actually working the number of "unemployed" would be in excess of 3 million.
I guess, the question should have been. What are the 3.4 million - 636,800 people doing?
Alternatively, the participation rate (65.6%) is calculated on 18.37 million (whatever that figure is). There's something that I'm missing in how the participation rate is calculated. Been scouring through the ABS website without finding much of a clarification on this. Total population is clearly 22.7 Million.

or I could just accept the figures: 636.8 k unemployed out of 12,069 k :)

cheers
Daniel
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You've misinterpreted what the participation rate is. The participation rate is the percentage of people who are of working age that are either employed or unemployed but looking for a job. So you can back out the number of people of working age from the total labour force and the participation rate and you get approx. 18,402.5 mill.
 
I see our market reacted today in the same manner it did the last two times it bounced recently (green circles). All this means is that the script unfolds and the range bound market drags in commissions. We have 5 - 7 sessions up our sleeves before time expires. So this time next week. Some of the miners are looking quite healthy (mid-caps) and other majors don't look like they want to fall again ... the US futures are flat atm. Indeed if the US does rally strong enough to bust LONG out of its range congestion it will be some feat. So lots of conflicting signals for me atm. Roll on Thurs / Fri next week.
 

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Tysonboss1 said:
Smoking cones while their pregnant girlfriend is watching oprah re-runs.
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ha, ha, ha...
----
yeah. I kind of figured the participation rate is something else, but I couldn't find that 18.4 mil figure on the ABS website and as such had to conclude there must've been some sort of black magic going on, as I thought working age people would've been included in that 65.6% figure. Would've made more sense to quote a participation rate closer to 54%

Anyway, thanks for your clarification

Cheers
Daniel
 
So much optimism - so much disappointment in the market at the moment. The graphs remind me of aging penis. Up one minute down the next.

Screen shot 2011-09-08 at 10.45.54 PM.png
 
So_Cynical said:
Standing still is not a decline...the uncomfortable will sell and the comfortable will exchange their money for the holdings of the weak...next Fridays US close will be higher than this Fridays close. :2twocents
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Perhaps it's all about fundamentals now? ASX futures down 90 for Monday. Does anyone actually invest anymore? Anyone still long?

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Uncle Festivus said:
Perhaps it's all about fundamentals now? ASX futures down 90 for Monday. Does anyone actually invest anymore? Anyone still long?

View attachment 44424
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"Investors" is THE most overused word by the news media when it comes to describing POSITIVE stock market activity, eg: "Stocks soared last night as investors bet heavily on Obama's speech".

"INVESTORS" has a positive "ring" to it.

On the other hand, have you noted that most heavy falls are caused by short sellers & speculators.

"SHORT SELLERS" & "SPECULATORS" are obviously being portrayed as the bad guys?

Oh dear. Obama has lost his Ring Of Confidence, it seems.

LOL
 
Uncle Festivus said:
Does anyone actually invest anymore? Anyone still long?
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I would say most Aussies industry Super funds are still long. I myself live off the dividends from my portfolio and I am "long" and am currently adding to it as the market drops. I need the tax paid dividends and the last thing I would do is sell out at these low prices and put it into cash. Putting into cash for me would mean less income and paying income tax on my interest, no thanks.
 
Obama's 17 tax breaks for small business: Big whoop!
"It's nice that you announce these things, but the question is how many actually make a difference," said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist with the National Federation of Independent Business. "If I give you this cash gift in some form through all these tax credits, why would you suddenly desire to go hire somebody?"

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/08/smallbusiness/jobs_tax_credits/index.htm?iid=EAL

Good luck on Monday Ladies and Gentlemen im at 100% cash :D
 
Chasero said:
September will definitely be an interesting month, probably not as brutal as August.

Can't wait! Everyone seems to be holding their breath for Obama's speech as much as they were with Bernanke's speech.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...o-be-very-bold-in-jobs-address-next-week.html
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Care to rethink the above now? The start to September has been brutal, US markets are down more than the whole of August.

Moment of clarity for me was last wednesday when i woke up thinking that the reality of CG tax would be preferable to living with my fear that the markets are going to tank badly. I have officialy joined the 100% cash as of last thursday thankfully (albeit a little late) and will stick with day trades for the foreseeable future.

Targets for some bellweathers which when hit i will consider longer term trades. I should of listened ages ago sadly.

BHP around $20
Rio around $23
Wbc $14
CBA $24
 
Yes looks like another lunge down for the US is probable. Broke down through short term support ... Interestingly our futures are at 4106 which is not quite a trend line break down ... futures are flighty creatures however ...
 
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