Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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nomore4s said:
Pretty weak open so far.
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DJIA played catchup after long weekend.
Range is yet to play out.
Is it Distribution OR Accumulation.???
But early for bravery---in my opinion--but then
I maybe more cautious than some.
 
tech/a said:
DJIA played catchup after long weekend.
Range is yet to play out.
Is it Distribution OR Accumulation.???
But early for bravery---in my opinion--but then
I maybe more cautious than some.
Click to expand...

I'm being super cautious. Which in hindsight, has let me down on a few "mental buys", but its easier to buy mentally than in real life (obviously).

Piss poor rally today.

Missed out on a few bargains, but now i will wait for the next crash. Past few weeks have been very helpful for my learning.
 
I'm a bit curious of these jobless numbers coming out.

According to the age, the total available percentage of the population available to work is supposedly 65.6%, which equates to 13.77 million aussies (21 million and counting).

Now, the total number of employed is 11.43 million. That leaves the number of unemployed to be 2.34 million :eek:
of course they fiddle with the statistics and maybe these 2.34 include temp employment?

What's added & what's not added to this figure? I must be missing something here, as a 17% unemployment rate don't seem right either :confused:

edit: http://www.theage.com.au/business/jobless-rate-jumps-in-august-20110908-1jyp4.html#poll

/Daniel
 
The rally was essentially killed off by the unexpected increase in unemployment of 0.2%.

The markets opened really strong until that news at 11am kicked in.. still expect the XAO to be up 1% by 4pm though, or hoping rather :)
 
Chasero said:
The rally was essentially killed off by the unexpected increase in unemployment of 0.2%.

The markets opened really strong until that news at 11am kicked in.. still expect the XAO to be up 1% by 4pm though, or hoping rather :)
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Check your watch. The news was released at 11:30am.

From 9:50-11:30 market was already down 35pts. From 11:30 to now it moved down another 35pts. The rally was pretty dead before the employment data.

You can have my house if the market is up 1% at the close... barring a miracle where Martians appear and announce they will bailout Europe AND give every American $2m.

Well... my monopoly house anyway :D
 
skc said:
Check your watch. The news was released at 11:30am.

From 9:50-11:30 market was already down 35pts. From 11:30 to now it moved down another 35pts. The rally was pretty dead before the employment data.

You can have my house if the market is up 1% at the close... barring a miracle where Martians appear and announce they will bailout Europe AND give every American $2m.

Well... my monopoly house anyway :D
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Yep 11:30 was the time.

Markets opened at around 4190 and at 11:30am it was around 4210. So not sure how you got markets being down by 35 points? It's only at 11:30 that there was a huge drop.


Yep doubt the markets will be up at 4pm but there's always hope!
 
One slight difference with this fade is a little weekness may creep into au$ due to employment data. That would make us a little more attractive to International equity investers. Also the Swiss thing could give US$ and on shore US stocks a bit more strength.
 
notting said:
One slight difference with this fade is a little weekness may creep into au$ due to employment data. That would make us a little more attractive to International equity investers. Also the Swiss thing could give US$ and on shore US stocks a bit more strength.
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My money's on Ben Bernanke to hint again at QE 3 tomorrow. It's all a game to keep the markets on its toes. So i doubt the AUD will be dropping that much.

I wonder how Bloomberg came up with the $300b figure, and if this will be identical to the speech. Kind of scary if Obama does nothing LOL
 
Chasero said:
My money's on Ben Bernanke to hint again at QE 3 tomorrow.
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I hope their not that silly.
People are not hiring, not expanding, not asking banks for loans.
QEs are just sitting around doing sweet FA which is why they have only had temporary sentimental short lived effects.
I don't think too many hip traders are going to be boyed by another. The signal that rates will be kept at zero for two years means:
"Come lend, it's free, is just sitting here and there's not going to be QE3"
QE3 would make it impossible to keep inflation/rates at zip for 2 years and hence be a slight deterent for variable rate - would be borrowers.
Europes the main game. The behaviour of the DAX is hardly signalling stability!
 
Chasero said:
Yep 11:30 was the time.

Markets opened at around 4190 and at 11:30am it was around 4210. So not sure how you got markets being down by 35 points? It's only at 11:30 that there was a huge drop.


Yep doubt the markets will be up at 4pm but there's always hope!
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I was referring to the the SPI future which opened at 9:15 at the high ~4235. It was ~4200 by 11:30.

The ASX200 is not truely open at 10am because of the staggered auction used by the ASX. At 10:09 when all stocks are open it was ~4214 but there's debate on how the actual opening level should be determined.
 
Danneman said:
I'm a bit curious of these jobless numbers coming out.

According to the age, the total available percentage of the population available to work is supposedly 65.6%, which equates to 13.77 million aussies (21 million and counting).

Now, the total number of employed is 11.43 million. That leaves the number of unemployed to be 2.34 million :eek:
of course they fiddle with the statistics and maybe these 2.34 include temp employment?

What's added & what's not added to this figure? I must be missing something here, as a 17% unemployment rate don't seem right either :confused:

edit: http://www.theage.com.au/business/jobless-rate-jumps-in-august-20110908-1jyp4.html#poll

/Daniel
Click to expand...

Unemployment rate = Number of Unemployed (000's) / Total Labour Force (000's)

August Unemployment rate = 636.8 / 12,069.4 = 5.28%
 
dhukka said:
Unemployment rate = Number of Unemployed (000's) / Total Labour Force (000's)

August Unemployment rate = 636.8 / 12,069.4 = 5.28%
Click to expand...

Ok, I obviously had got the wrong figures... I've always suspected these numbers are fudged. I guess I tend to believe what I want to believe ;)

Anyway. I read that 65.6% of the population were available to work (i.e not pensioners or kids etc) and that would equate to 14.9 million in the workforce. With 11.43 million actually working the number of "unemployed" would be in excess of 3 million.
I guess, the question should have been. What are the 3.4 million - 636,800 people doing?
Alternatively, the participation rate (65.6%) is calculated on 18.37 million (whatever that figure is). There's something that I'm missing in how the participation rate is calculated. Been scouring through the ABS website without finding much of a clarification on this. Total population is clearly 22.7 Million.

or I could just accept the figures: 636.8 k unemployed out of 12,069 k :)

cheers
Daniel
 
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