Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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So_Cynical said:
I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.
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won't be much trading if Russia uses nukes , the chances are they would multiple launch that's something over 2000 warheads plus some other nasty stuff basically used as decoys ( they know NATO will NOT use discipline or precision so will throw all the dice and see how many Russians survive )
 
So_Cynical said:
I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.
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My own view is we have (our economies) failed completely to fix gfc issues.
We introduce inflation, extended the debts to obscene levels ,remove any fighting spirit with the covid scam and destroyed value in our currency.
Going back to gfc levels ..plus inflation..lets say 20 % is the least we could do..in the last decade, we have also further destroyed our economic infrastructure, the population time bomb has worsen: older western population, exploding population in the 3rd world, rarer energy..energy is economy, never forget that and self suicide in term of dreamland green economy for Europe which is now a failed power.
Take gfc lows, multiply by 1.2, any index above remains overvalued.
Only way these figures will not be reached is if fiat currencies collapse..which is quite likely.
So yes we might fall just to 1.5 gfc lows but then your loaf of bread will be $20 AUD..
 
So_Cynical said:
I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.
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Me either, except for maybe really high interest rates, but with most of the world edging towards recession, I don’t think super high interest rates will be necessary.
 
qldfrog said:
My own view is we have (our economies) failed completely to fix gfc issues.
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I agree with the above, what was missing was inflation to inflate away the debt, so now we have inflation and interest rates heading back to normal levels, i think we can fall a bit more but more like COVID low not GFC.
 
Value Collector said:
Me either, except for maybe really high interest rates, but with most of the world edging towards recession, I don’t think super high interest rates will be necessary.
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This is a great point. Economic data around the world is already signalling a significant slowdown, and if/when we start to see recessions kick-in and inflation ease as a result, central bank's would be expected to loosen monetary conditions in an effort to stimulate economies and markets.

Of course, with a lot of the CB's vowing to continue tightening until inflation is within target, albeit at the expense of growth, there is still a lot of downside risk in the market.
 
waterbottle said:
I've been thinking lately - What's going to happen once we hit bottom? What will push CBers to stimulate again?
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well my competition selection of GEAR was primarily a bet on the US pivoting ( stimulating ) once more before the mid-term elections

some CBs have already intervened recently ( UK and Japan for two ) and extra stress looks likely during the coming Northern hemisphere winter

but just because i think this will happen , doesn't guarantee it will

this ( northern ) winter was effectively planned but are they ready for the public push-back , that public push-back may push a return ( temporarily ) to stimulus ,

so far most CBs have been picking winners ( have those winners repaired their balance sheets yet )
 
qldfrog said:
Or just a mid term catastrophic result for the democrats in the US?
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what would you call 'catastrophic ' .. a HEAVY loss ( many factor in a loss already ) or a win .. when they have to squarely face the consequences of their policy decisions .. surely life would be very uncomfortable if the Hispanic community completely turned on them after the mid-terms ( because they are a fair part of the middle class )
 
divs4ever said:
what would you call 'catastrophic ' .. a HEAVY loss ( many factor in a loss already ) or a win .. when they have to squarely face the consequences of their policy decisions .. surely life would be very uncomfortable if the Hispanic community completely turned on them after the mid-terms ( because they are a fair part of the middle class )
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A loss for the currently ruling democrats..kas6t label just a name obviously..
 
Value Collector said:
If I had to guess, I would say we will follow the USA down on Monday, but whether its a week or a month away, the market is going to accept that the feds actions are in its best interests, and the stock market will stabilise as people realise that there is no better place to store their capital.

I reckon by the end of the year the market will be above 7500 and inflation would have stabilised as a combination of central bank actions and trade normalisations work their way through.
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Maybe we are heading towards my prediction I made at the same time you made yours @wayneL ? (who knows though).

It does go to show, negative sentiment can turn on a dime.
 
wayneL said:
Nice to know you've been thinking of me, bro. ;)

But I will point out that my original end of year prediction was a very long odds chance, hence my prediction of possibly the wooden spoon.

No soup for you. ;)
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well my prediction ( guess ) of 5 thousand something is looking like a tough ask now , but NOT impossible , i see hints of 'the virus ' returning maybe they get it at COP 27 or maybe the G20

good luck everyone
 
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