Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

Even starting with a $200k trading account and assuming gun trader returns 30% per annum returns every year with no disruption, drawdown, volatility, etc ....you are talking $60k a year, pre-tax...might as well get a job at Woolworths, you will be doing a lot less work to get the same money.
Not less work unless you want to scan thousands of stocks..... I spend a few hours for the European open a then few more for US and I don't have customers and bosses busting my ass....

Then again why not have the best of both worlds and do both?
 
Not less work unless you want to scan thousands of stocks..... I spend a few hours for the European open a then few more for US and I don't have customers and bosses busting my ass....

Then again why not have the best of both worlds and do both?

So you consistently earn massive, top of the board returns, year after year, with no disruption/drawdown/volatility and you achieve this with just a few hours of work a day?

No. You don't.
 
So you consistently earn massive, top of the board returns, year after year, with no disruption/drawdown/volatility and you achieve this with just a few hours of work a day?

No. You don't

Don't tell me I don't, you have bloody no idea... Stick to your stock picking lottery

How much is massive ??
If you really want to know I have been trading full-time now for 3 years. I average approximately 3% a month annualised although I think know I can improve on this.
The trading is nothing, the business end is in the background developing methods and processes
I trade FX, Bitcoin, index CFDs and ETFs
Very seldom any stocks

Ofcourse I have had low months but there are more better months .
Everyone has drawdown but hey it's about becoming a good loser and really cutting losses very quickly. As for volatility I love it...
 
Not sure how you could live off of dividends alone without amassing huge wealth, enough to be comfortable with the long-term hold (and associated drawdown) to acquire said dividend.

I'd call avg. Australian weekly wage of $1835.20 as "comfortable" for someone living in urban Australia in 2022. That's an annual income of $95 430.40.
S&P puts the indicated yield for ASX200 @ 4.54%, which means you'd need a principal of $2 101 991.20.

Average hourly rate at woolies is $21.10/hr. Which means I'd need to stack shelves for almost 48 years to save up the principal :eek:
 
How I see the market(s)
Primary Market.......... Capital is committed to a business. It can be in the form of Equity or Debt
Secondary Market ... Trading of these shares/ obligations (exchanges/ OTC/ dealer /auction)
Tertiary Market ........ Strange constructions; leveraged / geared/ collared/ synthetic etc etc

For me it is getting geometric returns (compounding). Mostly, trading is delivering arithmetic returns .
 
to live off dividends alone you need megacapital, dividends can also be cut or stopped at board whim
I live off dividends, (and interest and rental income), I believe the best way to build that “mega capital” as you call it is to steadily accumulate capital in buy and hold investments and compound your income back into it. Due to the fact that trading increases your costs it’s going to have a net drag on the over all returns of those who attempt it, it’s a classic case of rabbit vs the hare, Traders think they will get where they want to go faster, but often don’t, I have seen it play out here all the time with some of the biggest trading advocates.
Yes dividends can be stopped, but that doesn’t affect my point, all it does affects the total returns of both the trading and the buy and hold group.

The net affect is the same, the buy and hold group earn the market average return, and the traders earn that same return minus the extra fees they paid along the way.
 
My strategy is simply to buy quality and hold through the market cycles, if the market drops I buy more, if the market rises, I buy more.

On average both traders and buy and holders get the same return, but traders share a larger portion of that return with their brokers.

Yes some traders (just like some investors) will do better than average, but only because so other trader did worse than average.

———————
We could see a big drop like the covid drop, but I believe it will snap back just as fast, and it might also not eventuate at all.

Basically the 100’s of companies listed on stock exchanges will earn what ever profit they earn, have growth of whatever growth they have, and pay what ever dividends they pay and buy and hold types will collect all that benefit.

Traders on average will collect the exact same growth and dividends as the long term investors on average, but will have to pay more fees and taxes along the way, meaning on average their return is lower.

i don't buy higher , unless the company makes a compelling move to do so , however i have been known to take some cash off the table if a stock rises to irrational valuations
 
As a practical observation, if there's a thread specifically about the market falling, and it's on a forum which is specifically about the stock market, then I think it's fair to assume most involved will have at least some interest in active trading.

That's not to say there's anything inherently wrong with the idea of long term investing and so on. Just that it's not the only approach and not the one to which short or medium term market direction is most relevant.

It's a bit like saying there's nothing wrong with classical music. Indeed there isn't but it's not really the place you'll find an audience wearing black T-shirts, headbanging, raising their horns and preferring to stand rather than sit. Even less likely you'll see women's underwear thrown at the band.

There's a place for everything and in the context of short to medium term market direction, those interested will be those actively trading.

Personally for my actively traded account it's about 30% in stocks / 70% cash at the moment. Sold very heavily last week - that wasn't an effort to predict the Fed announcement, it was simply that the wheels started coming off the market and hitting my stops. Selling started on the 15th - the market was starting to falter well before the announcement. :2twocents
 
to live off dividends alone you need megacapital, dividends can also be cut or stopped at board whim
not always , if you get into a share early enough , your div. yield off an individual share can be well above 10% return ( often juicy enough for you to bank some cash for the lean years ) having shares in companies in a variety of sectors can help as well ( not every company struggles in synchronicity with the market .. but it might be different this time )

take for example my holding in APE ( notional SP average of $1.18 ) sure it skips the odd div but the years it does pay

Balance DateDividend TypeCents per shareCcyFranked %Ex-Dividend DateBooks Close DatePay Date
30/06/2022Interim22.000AUD100.0002/09/202205/09/202223/09/2022
31/12/2021Final42.500AUD100.0031/03/202201/04/202220/04/2022
30/06/2021Interim20.000AUD100.0023/09/202124/09/202115/10/2021
30/06/2021Special8.400AUD100.0023/09/202124/09/202115/10/2021
31/12/2020Final25.000AUD100.0031/03/202101/04/202120/04/2021
31/12/2019Final11.250AUD100.0031/03/202001/04/202020/04/2020
30/06/2019Interim14.000AUD100.0025/09/201926/09/201917/10/2019
31/12/2018Final22.500AUD100.0028/03/201929/03/201918/04/2019
30/06/2018Interim14.000AUD100.0013/09/201814/09/201805/10/2018
31/12/2017Final22.500AUD100.0028/03/201829/03/201818/04/2018
30/06/2017Interim13.500AUD100.0014/09/201715/09/201706/10/2017
 
As a practical observation, if there's a thread specifically about the market falling, and it's on a forum which is specifically about the stock market, then I think it's fair to assume most involved will have at least some interest in active trading.

That's not to say there's anything inherently wrong with the idea of long term investing and so on. Just that it's not the only approach and not the one to which short or medium term market direction is most relevant.

It's a bit like saying there's nothing wrong with classical music. Indeed there isn't but it's not really the place you'll find an audience wearing black T-shirts, headbanging, raising their horns and preferring to stand rather than sit. Even less likely you'll see women's underwear thrown at the band.

There's a place for everything and in the context of short to medium term market direction, those interested will be those actively trading.

Personally for my actively traded account it's about 30% in stocks / 70% cash at the moment. Sold very heavily last week - that wasn't an effort to predict the Fed announcement, it was simply that the wheels started coming off the market and hitting my stops. Selling started on the 15th - the market was starting to falter well before the announcement. :2twocents


market dips have there place even for long term investors , they give you the opportunity to bulk up on selected stocks ( like i did with BHP when they dropped below $20 .. $18 , $15 ) similar with FMG ( since i was late to the party with them )

picking to correct stocks to bulk up is the hard bit
 
but how long after the crash will your funds be available ??

( there is a possibility of banks limiting withdrawals or even bail-ins )

also some will be better raking in the divs ( and franking credits ) while they can

remember how chaotic div. payments were during 2020 , that could easily happen again

( a pile of cash is nice , providing you can spend it when you want to )

i suspect this will be very different from the 1970s , but will it be similar to the great building society collapse ( i got my cash tangled up in that )
 
So you consistently earn massive, top of the board returns, year after year, with no disruption/drawdown/volatility and you achieve this with just a few hours of work a day?

No. You don't.
well i am not planning any draw-downs , however over the last two years there have been all-cash takeovers that provided cash injections , and hopefully i can maintain a cash buffer to take the bite out div. disruptions ( and i live a fairly frugal lifestyle , so am partly cushioned from inflation )

however if we move into hyper-inflation cash will be useless ( you won't be able to spend it quick enough )
 
If we're at the point where it's not possible to buy shares due to cash accounts being frozen then realistically it's game over for life as we know it. :2twocents
well we could look at Greece and Cyprus as examples of what MIGHT happen and say minimal amounts of withdrawals ( say below $1000 a day ) for say 4 or 6 weeks , now sure there might be some nice deals four weeks after the crash , but what about those who get margin calls or have option deals

i am not saying it will happen , but Greece and Cyprus are fairly sophisticated nations and to make it worse it was NOT the national government decision it was forced on them

in Australia that might be the IMF or BIS ( instead of the EU and ECB )

because the Western world is really financially messed up ( and Australia is NOT 'too big to fail ' , so could easily be the sacrificial lamb )
 
Like @Smurf1976 , I have some cash on the sidelines. But over time cash decays away due to inflation of goods and services as well as appreciating asset prices !

We are feeling it now in the current inflationary environment, so I could only imagine how cash may become trash in a hyper-inflation scenario, as @divs4ever said :(
well we have been in 'uncharted territory ' for quite a while , almost anything irrational could happen , IN THEORY Australia could become self-sufficient ( again ) but would we even try

yes i have some cash , but i notice a few local shops no longer take cash ... going to be some interesting times ahead ( wait until governments start seeing revenue short-falls due to collecting less fees and taxes )
 
not always , if you get into a share early enough , your div. yield off an individual share can be well above 10% return ( often juicy enough for you to bank some cash for the lean years ) having shares in companies in a variety of sectors can help as well ( not every company struggles in synchronicity with the market .. but it might be different this time )

take for example my holding in APE ( notional SP average of $1.18 ) sure it skips the odd div but the years it does pay

Balance DateDividend TypeCents per shareCcyFranked %Ex-Dividend DateBooks Close DatePay Date
30/06/2022Interim22.000AUD100.0002/09/202205/09/202223/09/2022
31/12/2021Final42.500AUD100.0031/03/202201/04/202220/04/2022
30/06/2021Interim20.000AUD100.0023/09/202124/09/202115/10/2021
30/06/2021Special8.400AUD100.0023/09/202124/09/202115/10/2021
31/12/2020Final25.000AUD100.0031/03/202101/04/202120/04/2021
31/12/2019Final11.250AUD100.0031/03/202001/04/202020/04/2020
30/06/2019Interim14.000AUD100.0025/09/201926/09/201917/10/2019
31/12/2018Final22.500AUD100.0028/03/201929/03/201918/04/2019
30/06/2018Interim14.000AUD100.0013/09/201814/09/201805/10/2018
31/12/2017Final22.500AUD100.0028/03/201829/03/201818/04/2018
30/06/2017Interim13.500AUD100.0014/09/201715/09/201706/10/2017

Yes, if you get in very early it can work well. My parents got into the CBA float and they're collecting a dividend per share more than the price they bought the stock for.
 
i don't buy higher , unless the company makes a compelling move to do so , however i have been known to take some cash off the table if a stock rises to irrational valuations
if a stock moves up, and at a later stage I find myself with some more capital, as long as the new higher price still represents good value I will buy.

I don’t let the price I have paid for a stock in the past dictate my decisions in the future, I will either buy or sell based on what my estimate of its value is in the present.
 
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As a practical observation, if there's a thread specifically about the market falling, and it's on a forum which is specifically about the stock market, then I think it's fair to assume most involved will have at least some interest in active trading.

That's not to say there's anything inherently wrong with the idea of long term investing and so on. Just that it's not the only approach and not the one to which short or medium term market direction is most relevant.

It's a bit like saying there's nothing wrong with classical music. Indeed there isn't but it's not really the place you'll find an audience wearing black T-shirts, headbanging, raising their horns and preferring to stand rather than sit. Even less likely you'll see women's underwear thrown at the band.

There's a place for everything and in the context of short to medium term market direction, those interested will be those actively trading.

Personally for my actively traded account it's about 30% in stocks / 70% cash at the moment. Sold very heavily last week - that wasn't an effort to predict the Fed announcement, it was simply that the wheels started coming off the market and hitting my stops. Selling started on the 15th - the market was starting to falter well before the announcement. :2twocents
As I said there is nothing wrong with attempting to beat the market average return by trading, but I do think discussing the pros and cons is important.

The reason I often bring the subject up is because the facts of the matter are counter intuitive. Most people don’t realise the tide the are swimming against when attempting to beat the market by trading, so I think it’s helpful to point it out.

Most of the worlds shares are held by investors rather than active traders, so I don’t think discussing the two different options is off topic.
 
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