I fail to understand how any of these well paid economists get to keep their jobs.Australian retail turnover fell 4.4 per cent in December 2021, seasonally adjusted, according to the Retail Trade figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The December result follows consecutive rises of 7.3 per cent in November 2021, 4.9 per cent in October 2021, and 1.3 per cent in September 2021.
Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, said the 4.4 per cent fall is the largest monthly fall since April 2020. However, retail sales remain elevated compared to pre pandemic levels, with December’s monthly turnover the second highest level in the series following last month’s record.
“Despite this month’s fall, retail turnover remains strong, up 4.8 per cent on December 2020, with strong consumer spending continuing post the Delta Outbreak,” Mr James said. “Victoria recorded the largest fall of any state or territory, down 8.4 per cent, however this only partly unwinds the state’s strong rise in November when it rose to a record level. Victorian turnover is now at the third highest level ever, 6.5 per cent above December 2020.”
Mick,It may come as a bit of a surprise that Retail Sales fell 4.4% in December.
What comes as no surprise is that once again economists were hopelessly wrong as the "consensus was for a 3.9% rise.
From National Tribune
I fail to understand how any of these well paid economists get to keep their jobs.
Be interesting to see the RBA announcement as well as the next set of Employment statistics.
Mick
Anyone interested in a real economic pulse should look at CBA reports : these guys have a real time knowledgeMick,
As a small business owner, i was selected to fill their survey, month after month a couple of years ago
Not only was the survey focus totally irrelevant to my company but it started by 2 pages highlighting the fines i would be subjected should i failed to fill or filled incorrectly.
The quality of my answers matched my expectations
Mick,
As a small business owner, i was selected to fill their survey
An
Anyone interested in a real economic pulse should look at CBA reports : these guys have a real time knowledge
What comes as no surprise is that once again economists were hopelessly wrong as the "consensus was for a 3.9% rise.
I fail to understand how any of these well paid economists get to keep their jobs.
Thank you for the education on what consensus means, I will return the complement and provide you with what a statistical average means. Given the huge disparity between the actual and forecast, and presuming that all the analysts are given equal weighting, there would have most likely been a majority of analysts who were in positive territory, and very few in negative territory. A failure whichever way you look at it.Maybe because you fail to understand the nature of "consensus" here?
It's essentially the average forecast from the pool of analysts (not economists) who cover the number. It's like ~20 people. The average, which means some forecasted higher, some lower, maybe none at all forecasted the consensus number.
i understand consensus , very wellMaybe because you fail to understand the nature of "consensus" here?
It's essentially the average forecast from the pool of analysts (not economists) who cover the number. It's like ~20 people. The average, which means some forecasted higher, some lower, maybe none at all forecasted the consensus number.
there would have most likely been a majority of analysts who were in positive territory, and very few in negative territory. A failure whichever way you look at it.
Mick
i understand consensus , very well
consensus however often devolves into a circle-jerk , as outrageous opinions ( no matter how often they are correct ) are either not sought at all , or flatly rejected
ABS (Australia Bureau of Statistics) which is the feed of the RBA here in Australia.Who's survey?
Plus a related problem that those with the more extreme views may self-censor to avoid standing out.consensus however often devolves into a circle-jerk , as outrageous opinions ( no matter how often they are correct ) are either not sought at all , or flatly rejected
Plus a related problem that those with the more extreme views may self-censor to avoid standing out.
That's a common problem in large organisations especially. Whichever view the boss expresses, others just agree.
ABS (Australia Bureau of Statistics) which is the feed of the RBA here in Australia.
I remember my folks having to do those with their business. It was a massive PITA and took a ton of time they couldn't really afford.ABS (Australia Bureau of Statistics) which is the feed of the RBA here in Australia.
Monthly: actual results in term of turover, planned turnover etcand then my company expected outcome/turnover activity workforce etc for month quarterWhat survey was it for?
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