This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

The New Bull Market

Jump to new
Cheers duc, that clarifies it.
 
Some economic based charts:

The first one (below) is actually quite useful for gauging inflationary pressures, which lead to reductions in profitability of businesses (stock market) as commodity prices (PPI) increase relative to Industrial production.



Industrial production is correlated to the market. Therefore keeping track of this economic indicator is a worthwhile undertaking.




Housing is (obviously) a huge part of the US economy. Always worth tracking.



Money expansion. Need I even say anything.



And lastly the correlation with CPI, which is itself driven by the expansion of M1/M2.



Which is nothing more than an inflationary increase in corporate profits and a steady default on debts.

jog on
duc
 
So today I put the hedges back on:



Markets when they top, usually (not always) take a bit of time. None of the above charts currently fill me with much conviction that we are not going to have a slightly deeper correction than just a minor pull-back. Given that it is also September, well I'll play it a little safe.

jog on
duc
 
The question is where the correction can/will be found.

So far, megatech and mega-growth (tesla, nvidia, zoom etc) has been virtually invulnerable. And we're heading into winter, which means more time spent indoors even just seasonally. And buying online for xmas.

 
Of course it does. The question is how much. That's individual.

FWIW Alex (the bloomberg AU rep that'll call you when you enquire about one) was fantastic when I had him on the phone.
 
ducati916 said:
Given that it is also September, well I'll play it a little safe.
Click to expand...
I wander the old adage "Sell in May and go Away" still applies to stock (US/asx) markets ?

I just looked at the last decade and there seems to be some years that it's worked for a short term correction on the ASX:
  • May 2010
  • May 2011
  • May 2012
  • May 2013
  • May 2015
But the last two years would have been a dreadful decision to sell in May and hide in a hole. Thankfully I learnt from you ASF guys to get back into the market since I was so slow to catch the 2019 rally.

So in 2020 I started buying back stocks when the ASF market analysts started posting things like turning their Index filters back ON and so forth with all the technical jargon thrown in to make my head spin . Anyway, started buying stocks back and slowly populated Speculative Stock Portfolio with the best of my researched stocks. Thank goodness, the subsequent COVID recovery that followed was even steeper than the 2019 rally and the "Open Portfolio" and "Recently Closed Positions" look pretty good at the moment.
 


For the SPY no. For the QQQ, arguable. But not this year at least. All that remains to be seen is whether the Sept/Oct seasonality trend remains intact.



jog on
duc
 
over9k said:
1. Of course it does.
2.The question is how much.
3.That's individual.

FWIW Alex (the bloomberg AU rep that'll call you when you enquire about one) was fantastic when I had him on the phone.
Click to expand...

1. Well that was going to be the purpose of the test/experiment. So while it is asserted, it is far from proven.

2. Of course. What return would justify it. The experiment was going to demonstrate 100%+ in 1 month. Now if that can be achieved, that is impressive and would make it worthwhile, more than worthwhile. Count me sceptical.

3. So not the machine. The individual. See the contradictions?

jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
For the SPY no. For the QQQ, arguable. But not this year at least. All that remains to be seen is whether the Sept/Oct seasonality trend remains intact.

View attachment 108543 View attachment 108544

jog on
duc
Click to expand...
These have a recentcy-bias since the last 5 years (except for the Covid flash crash) has been a raging bull market with over 300% returns. No wander there is so much bullishness especially in the US markets !

I've seen some youngsters do some stunts and pull it off while rubbing it into me with salt for cautioning them to exercise caution on their Robinhood accounts going heavy on Hertz that was near bankruptcy and trending down at around 90c. Couldn't believe it when it hit $5+ in a matter of days !

So this is a generational recency-bias we are experiencing I think with what they've seen in their lifetime:
  • If you are a US youngster: Stock market always makes new highs including when it flash crashes during a pandemic.
  • If you are a Aussie/NZ youngster: House prices will never go down, Period. I mean it never did in their parent's lifetime let alone in their life.
My brain refuses to agree with above points. Which drug do I take to make my brain all brand new and think like a 20-year old ?
 
Oil Patch News:


Market Movers

- Total’s (NYSE: TOT) Port Arthur refinery is awaiting the restoration of electricity in order to restart operations following Hurricane Laura. Citgo and Phillips 66 (NYSE: PXD) said that assessments of damage at their facilities in Lake Charles could take days.

- Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) hoped to cancel a $300 million contract with Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET), but a court ruled in Energy Transfer’s favor.

- Enbridge (NYSE: ENB) said that an offshore natural gas pipeline that services four offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico remained out of commission due to the hurricane.

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Oil prices rose on Tuesday on new manufacturing data from both the U.S. and China, which surprised on the upside. The dollar also weakened, adding some support to crude. Nevertheless, crude is showing few signs of being able to break out from its current range.

Distressed shale assets from the last boom. Many of the M&A deals in U.S. shale following the 2014-2016 oil market downturn are now “unworkable,” according to Reuters. Of the 50 largest acreage purchases between 2016 and 2019, 31 of them only add value if Brent trades above $50 per barrel. For instance, Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG) paid roughly $54,977 per acre when it purchased Energen in 2018, a deal that would now breakeven if Brent averaged $77 per barrel.

Gulf of Mexico output remains down. As of Monday, about 53 percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico was still shut-in, following the devastation from Hurricane Laura. About 41 percent of natural gas production is shut-in. Personnel remain evacuated from 117 production platforms or 18 percent of the total.

EVs still costly to produce. EVs will remain more costly to manufacture than traditional gasoline and diesel-fueled vehicles for the rest of the decade, according to new research. EV manufacturing costs could average 16,000 euros by 2030, or 9 percent higher than conventional cars.

Goldman: Oil prices to jump to $65. Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end the year lower, at $58 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. “There is a growing likelihood that vaccines will become widely available starting next spring, helping support global growth and oil demand, especially jet,” the Goldman analysts said.

U.S. seizes websites involved in illegal oil trade. The United States announced today that it has seized three websites used by sanctions-violators to trade in crude oil, according to an official press release. The websites were, according to the U.S. government, used by Iran to trade oil with Venezuela—two sanctioned countries that are not allowed to trade oil at all, let alone with each other.

Natural gas prices sink on cooler weather. Natural gas prices sank early on Monday on expectations of lower demand due to cooler weather and lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed in the aftermath of Hurricane Laura passing through the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Biden: "I am not banning fracking": In a speech on Monday in Pittsburgh, Biden dismissed accusations that he would target oil and gas drillers. “I am not banning fracking. Let me say that again. I am not banning fracking. No matter how many times Donald Trump lies about me,” Biden said.

UAE overproduces in August. The UAE breached its OPEC+ quota in August, pumping 2.693 million b/d, according to S&P Global Platts.

U.S. SPR damaged from the hurricane. The U.S. Energy Department said on Monday that the West Hackberry site of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve “sustained considerable damage” from Hurricane Laura.

Shipping companies profit amid downturn. Cost-cutting and removing excess capacity have kept shipping margins in positive territory this year.

Trump Administration Proposes Easing Oil and Gas Permitting in National Forests. The Trump administration on Aug. 31 issued a proposal that would make it easier to permit oil and gas drilling operations in national forests, aligning permitting processes between the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management. Environmental groups say the move will sidestep environmental reviews.

U.S. gasoline demand fizzling. U.S. demand for gasoline surged after bottoming out in April, but has flattened out in the past two months below pre-pandemic levels. Stagnating demand raises concerns about the health of the economic recovery. “The easy work has been done,” Noah Barrett, an energy analyst for Janus Henderson Investors, told the WSJ. “That last 10% to 15% of lost demand is going to be really hard to get back.”

Trump admin prepares more sanctions on Venezuela. “We think our sanctions have been extremely effective in reducing income to the regime but we think we can make them more effective. So we are going to be doing some things to tighten up in the near future,” Elliott Abrams, U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela said in a Reuters interview. He did not specify but hinted that the new sanctions would include eliminating exemptions offered to third parties buying Venezuelan oil.

Tesla to sell $5 billion in shares. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) said it would sell as much as $5 billion in shares “from time to time” in order to fund growth. The company has plans to build new factories in Germany and in Austin, Texas, following the recent completion of a plant in Shanghai.

Exxon considers job cuts. According to a memo sent to employees Monday and obtained by Business Insider, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) is considering job cuts. The company is looking at its upstream unit for “organizational efficiencies and lower activity levels,” according to the memo, including job cuts.

Total and Macquarie pursue 2 GW offshore wind in South Korea. Total (NYSE: TOT) will partner with Macquarie Group’s green bank to develop more than 2 gigawatts of floating wind farms off South Korea, the latest push by the French oil and gas giant to diversify into clean energy.

jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
3. So not the machine. The individual. See the contradictions?
Click to expand...

I was referring to the service you get. Like going to a nice restaurant or something, you don't *just* buy the physical product.

You at least bought a fang etf yet?
 
over9k said:
I was referring to the service you get. Like going to a nice restaurant or something, you don't *just* buy the physical product.

You at least bought a fang etf yet?
Click to expand...


And apart from teaching you how to get the most from your purchase, that helps you how?

It would seem that almost by definition, simply owning/renting a Bloomberg can confer no longer term advantage simply because if it did, all would rent one, thereby negating the advantage.

Possibly for daytrading the pre-market to the open, there may be some advantage, that is really what I was waiting to see from the experiment, because (in the US) you are competing against the MMs. and HFT chaps.

Thoughts?

jog on
duc
 
Sorry duc for absence of response, really a foreign domain for me..
Anyone else actually using it ?
 

Not necessarily. The terminal might make you X% more per year. That X% mightn't be the ~30k AUD that it costs. It would obviously depend on a balance of your utilisation of it and how much money you're playing with.

This dude seemed bloody ambitious at it enabling a doubling of your money per MONTH. That would make it worth millions and millions just in year 1. It doesn't take long doubling a 30k figure before it hits the billions.

Dude actually struck me as a complete loon tbh.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

R
Bull Markets
Replies
0
Views
974
robertbanking
R
R
My strategy/plan going forward
Replies
13
Views
777
RbNEO
R
US Election 2024 : Stock and Economic Comment
7 8 9
Replies
171
Views
10K
divs4ever
M
Cooling Australian Property Market Signals Economic Trends
Replies
1
Views
977
Joe Blow
Effects of the US election on the Australian economy and politics
Replies
2
Views
424
SirRumpole
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...