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The New Bull Market

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But the market may not like incertitude?? yet it went up yesterday....
 
ducati916 said:
The election is this week and assuming the result is not contested, we should be back to business as usual:
Click to expand...
It's bizarre how many shops are boarding up their windows in the US, Twister Trump is bearing down.
If he loses, he will claim victory anyway.
Beware the impending storm.
There is massive amounts of energy from both sides.... the losers are gonna be sore.
 
and if Biden looses?..same will blame the Russians or Martians
 
Market broadly moving higher:



The issue atm for VIX is that we do not have a second point on which to draw our trend line.



We are approaching a support point, which coincides with a PP. My 'feeling' is that we pass through that support point and PP. If we do not, then I 'feel' we may get our second point to which we can draw a trend line extending forward.

My 'feel' is based around a conclusion to the election. It makes no difference who wins, only that someone wins. What we don't want is a nil result heading off to litigation etc. If we have a result, we pass through support. No result and possibly we bounce at support (bad for the market) and see what happens after that.

Given that a 'nil' result has so widely been flagged, discussed, etc. I don't think it will actually occur. There will likely be a result and stocks will move forward and higher into the next disaster. The Options market via SPY straddles is pricing in (by Friday) a 4.2% clear winner with PREDICTIT calling for a 75% chance of a winner by Friday.

A winner by Friday has the market 2.8% higher. A nil decision has the market 8.2% lower. One is almost tempted you replace hedges.


jog on
duc
 
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Trump wins most likely, which is bad news for the oz economy as China will keep going into confrontation instead of us enjoying Xi fuc..ing the west but buying our iron ore
 
No the next step is intifada street war which will not be nice on the market.wait and see
 
Interesting day:

The election is currently undecided:



The market is indifferent, VIX down 20%+



History suggests Trump based on a pattern of 2 terms:



Is that what the market is voting for?

My main man, flippe-floppe-flye says no!



Is he right?



Now I think this is an EOD chart. Which means, Treasuries will jump big time at EOD on this chart. Is it a factor?



Well the Bond VIX, says no, Bond vol. is also falling. Bond yields are falling back into a trading range:



Anything to worry about? ATM, probably not.

Could everything change if the the election goes one way or t'other, possibly. However history suggests (strongly) that whoever is in the WH stocks do just fine.

The market (I believe) is rallying not for one or the other, rather, because it looks as if there will be a clear winner and the decision will be this week and not drawn out into Dec.

jog on
duc
 
If this is true, expect trouble ahead
I quote
The Federalist reports:

Something fishy is going on, folks. You simply don’t find 140,000 votes to zero in a swing state. Or any state for that matter.
..
I do not expect a smooth handover one way or another...
That should seriously affect the short-term market move
 
So another gap higher. Caution:



The elastic band is stretched pretty tight atm. We do not have a new trend line at the moment. We know the old one acted as support the last time. Now this is very 'subjective', but just look at the angle of dangle the VIX has dropped at currently. I am expecting a bit of a snap back, possibly tomorrow, given that it's a Friday and there could be a lot of 'news' bandied about.

Second:



Again, too much too soon. 2020 is an outlier year in many (if not all) respects. Vol. is still high (very high in comparison to last couple of years) and that means we are not out of the woods quite yet.



There is a little red mark at the point of resistance just above our trend line. Now the Sept/Oct trend is likely finished, but it is not yet confirmed. It is a process. That process is underway. That process means that we could 'adjust' a little, until we are ready to move forward again.

Look at advancing issues:



We are stretched.



Mr flippe-floppe-flye.

jog on
duc
 
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Yesterday's caution, is today's re-implementation of hedges. Simply, too far, too fast. 3 charts of concern:




To the strength of the trend, which currently is counter cyclical:



It looks suspiciously like we are going to fall back into that counter cyclical trend. I would be looking (on this chart) for support to hold x3 and the next move higher to break that trend line signalling a resumption of the primary trend (bull) once again.

Which is potentially going to be confirmed by the VIX



The trend line can act as support. I think we dip slightly below and move higher, which means falling stocks.

The fall (potential) in stocks will re-establish the primary trend (bull) moving into 2021. The question is, how scary will the MM make it?

My main man, flippe-floppe-flye:



jog on
duc
 
Thats some pretty high futures, I guess joe biden has brought a lot of confidence in the market, let the bulls run out of the gate
 

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Dark1975 said:
Thats some pretty high futures, I guess joe biden has brought a lot of confidence in the market, let the bulls run out of the gate
Click to expand...

Pfizer appearing to have a bit of success in it's vaccine trial probably a big contributor to the recent spike.

Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine proves 90% effective in latest trials

The vaccine proved to be more than 90% effective in the first 94 subjects who were infected by the new coronavirus and developed at least one symptom, the companies said Monday.
www.foxbusiness.com
 
peter2 said:
It gets better....

View attachment 114401
Click to expand...
Yeah makes sense , I guess we will see a strong market trend, the dow and nasdaq are 1hr away from opening,
Tho the general market will move 5% up today the only losers will be the stay at home tech like zoom and Netflix will be with this vaccine announcement,
Wouldn't be surprised if airlines shares boom today,
 
Some early birds already touching on today's market. Starting with vaccine news:



The selloff in Treasuries is a worry:



Again, too far, too fast. Rising yields can have ramifications. The rising yield has created a situation where, even with the rise in the market, we still remain in a stealth cyclical bear in stocks from Sept/Oct. I expect this to resolve in the Bulls favour, but we might have a bit of a sell-off first in stocks.



VIX has fallen another 13% today. The elastic band is due a snap back if not today, tomorrow.



Mr flippe-floppe-flye



Gold hating the rise in yield







That gap higher, this just opens the door for the MM to play their games. This market is going higher no question, but there is plenty of opportunity to manipulate prices this side of Christmas and with that sort of gap, on 'news', classic reversal should be expected, just testing those who a newly long.

jog on
duc
 
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