The New Bull Market

[qldfrog]

funny thing about people trying to justify link between next us president polls and share market:
headlines today:
View attachment 114149
so the frog relates to his English old learnings and think:
the market wants Trump to win
yet he reads on the same day from Goldman Sachs:

The Presidential Predictor matches Wall Street’s forecasts. Goldman Sachs analysts predict a “blue wave,” in which Democrats will retake the White House and Senate and maintain control of the House of Representatives.

Goldman believes that could be a positive outcome for markets.

“Such a blue wave would likely prompt us to upgrade our forecasts,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report last month.
mr LeDuc is probably right: the market does not care nor does it really care about Covid infection numbers..i do not either why would the market?

But the market may not like incertitude?? yet it went up yesterday....

 

[frugal.rock]

The election is this week and assuming the result is not contested, we should be back to business as usual:

It's bizarre how many shops are boarding up their windows in the US, Twister Trump is bearing down.
If he loses, he will claim victory anyway.
Beware the impending storm.
There is massive amounts of energy from both sides.... the losers are gonna be sore.

 

[qldfrog]

It's bizarre how many shops are boarding up their windows in the US, Twister Trump is bearing down.
If he loses, he will claim victory anyway.
Beware the impending storm.
There is massive amounts of energy from both sides.... the losers are gonna be sore.

and if Biden looses?..same will blame the Russians or Martians

 

[frugal.rock]

Currently looking like the market is staying positive from the futs.
Hope Mr Le Duc updates over the election period.

 

[ducati916]

Market broadly moving higher:

The issue atm for VIX is that we do not have a second point on which to draw our trend line.

We are approaching a support point, which coincides with a PP. My 'feeling' is that we pass through that support point and PP. If we do not, then I 'feel' we may get our second point to which we can draw a trend line extending forward.

My 'feel' is based around a conclusion to the election. It makes no difference who wins, only that someone wins. What we don't want is a nil result heading off to litigation etc. If we have a result, we pass through support. No result and possibly we bounce at support (bad for the market) and see what happens after that.

Given that a 'nil' result has so widely been flagged, discussed, etc. I don't think it will actually occur. There will likely be a result and stocks will move forward and higher into the next disaster. The Options market via SPY straddles is pricing in (by Friday) a 4.2% clear winner with PREDICTIT calling for a 75% chance of a winner by Friday.

A winner by Friday has the market 2.8% higher. A nil decision has the market 8.2% lower. One is almost tempted you replace hedges.


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Trump wins most likely, which is bad news for the oz economy as China will keep going into confrontation instead of us enjoying Xi fuc..ing the west but buying our iron ore

 

[qldfrog]

No the next step is intifada street war which will not be nice on the market.wait and see

 

[ducati916]

Interesting day:

The election is currently undecided:

The market is indifferent, VIX down 20%+

History suggests Trump based on a pattern of 2 terms:

Is that what the market is voting for?

My main man, flippe-floppe-flye says no!

Is he right?

Now I think this is an EOD chart. Which means, Treasuries will jump big time at EOD on this chart. Is it a factor?

Well the Bond VIX, says no, Bond vol. is also falling. Bond yields are falling back into a trading range:

Anything to worry about? ATM, probably not.

Could everything change if the the election goes one way or t'other, possibly. However history suggests (strongly) that whoever is in the WH stocks do just fine.

The market (I believe) is rallying not for one or the other, rather, because it looks as if there will be a clear winner and the decision will be this week and not drawn out into Dec.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

The answer:

Gridlock in the Senate/Congress/WH

Stocks will rock!

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Latest:

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

If this is true, expect trouble ahead
I quote
The Federalist reports:

‘Then, something strange happened in the dead of the night. In both Michigan and Wisconsin, vote dumps early Wednesday morning showed 100 percent of the votes going for Biden and zero percent—that’s zero, so not even one vote—for Trump.
‘In Michigan, Biden somehow got 138,339 votes and Trump got none, zero, in an overnight vote-dump.
‘When my Federalist colleague Sean Davis noted this, Twitter was quick to censor his tweet, even though all he had done was compare two sets of vote totals on the New York Times website. And he wasn’t the only one who noticed—although on Wednesday it appeared that anyone who noted the Biden vote dump in Michigan was getting censored by Twitter.’

Something fishy is going on, folks. You simply don’t find 140,000 votes to zero in a swing state. Or any state for that matter.
..
I do not expect a smooth handover one way or another...
That should seriously affect the short-term market move

 

[frugal.rock]

USA, USA....
ugly states of america....

 

[ducati916]

So another gap higher. Caution:

The elastic band is stretched pretty tight atm. We do not have a new trend line at the moment. We know the old one acted as support the last time. Now this is very 'subjective', but just look at the angle of dangle the VIX has dropped at currently. I am expecting a bit of a snap back, possibly tomorrow, given that it's a Friday and there could be a lot of 'news' bandied about.

Second:

Again, too much too soon. 2020 is an outlier year in many (if not all) respects. Vol. is still high (very high in comparison to last couple of years) and that means we are not out of the woods quite yet.

There is a little red mark at the point of resistance just above our trend line. Now the Sept/Oct trend is likely finished, but it is not yet confirmed. It is a process. That process is underway. That process means that we could 'adjust' a little, until we are ready to move forward again.

Look at advancing issues:

We are stretched.

Mr flippe-floppe-flye.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Some vol. studies underpinning the elastic band theory:

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Yesterday's caution, is today's re-implementation of hedges. Simply, too far, too fast. 3 charts of concern:

To the strength of the trend, which currently is counter cyclical:

It looks suspiciously like we are going to fall back into that counter cyclical trend. I would be looking (on this chart) for support to hold x3 and the next move higher to break that trend line signalling a resumption of the primary trend (bull) once again.

Which is potentially going to be confirmed by the VIX

The trend line can act as support. I think we dip slightly below and move higher, which means falling stocks.

The fall (potential) in stocks will re-establish the primary trend (bull) moving into 2021. The question is, how scary will the MM make it?

My main man, flippe-floppe-flye:

jog on
duc

 

[Dark1975]

Thats some pretty high futures, I guess joe biden has brought a lot of confidence in the market, let the bulls run out of the gate

 

[peter2]

It gets better....

 

[wabullfrog]

Thats some pretty high futures, I guess joe biden has brought a lot of confidence in the market, let the bulls run out of the gate

Pfizer appearing to have a bit of success in it's vaccine trial probably a big contributor to the recent spike.

Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine proves 90% effective in latest trials

The vaccine proved to be more than 90% effective in the first 94 subjects who were infected by the new coronavirus and developed at least one symptom, the companies said Monday.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Dark1975]

It gets better....

View attachment 114401

Yeah makes sense , I guess we will see a strong market trend, the dow and nasdaq are 1hr away from opening,
Tho the general market will move 5% up today the only losers will be the stay at home tech like zoom and Netflix will be with this vaccine announcement,
Wouldn't be surprised if airlines shares boom today,

 

[ducati916]

Some early birds already touching on today's market. Starting with vaccine news:

The selloff in Treasuries is a worry:

Again, too far, too fast. Rising yields can have ramifications. The rising yield has created a situation where, even with the rise in the market, we still remain in a stealth cyclical bear in stocks from Sept/Oct. I expect this to resolve in the Bulls favour, but we might have a bit of a sell-off first in stocks.

VIX has fallen another 13% today. The elastic band is due a snap back if not today, tomorrow.

Mr flippe-floppe-flye

Gold hating the rise in yield

That gap higher, this just opens the door for the MM to play their games. This market is going higher no question, but there is plenty of opportunity to manipulate prices this side of Christmas and with that sort of gap, on 'news', classic reversal should be expected, just testing those who a newly long.

jog on
duc