The impact of technology on future jobs

[sptrawler]

In 1952 I had an office job as a customs and shipping clerk. The office was "open plan" and included 65 typists (female naturally). Discussion in the lunch room was usually centred around the emerging automation in the home for which would make married domestic life (the main future for young girls) an easy life. Now they are not needed as typists and the only advantage of the automation in the home means they are able to go back to work. Something they probably need to do to balance the budget.

Automation only allows for a change of employment and often at a downgraded job. This leads to less leisure time. Past history shows that as a fact.:bad:

That is so true.

Shame people haven't cottoned on to it.

 

[qldfrog]

My trade is peculiar in that very little automation is possible.... And there is a trend towards less automation as superior results are only possible by custom delivery by a skilled human.

Less and lees people have the cajones to take it up however.

hum what is your job field to feel so protected?
except nurse changing diapers for aged care and childcare, they are not that many which can not be replaced

 

[qldfrog]

they are not that many which can not be replaced

or affected drastically with far fewer head counts...I should be more accurate

 

[wayneL]

hum what is your job field to feel so protected?
except nurse changing diapers for aged care and childcare, they are not that many which can not be replaced

I'm a farrier.

Our field has probably already been affect by automation to the extent possible in that where once upon a time we had to make all our own shoes from scratch, you can just buy ready-mades now.

But no machine is going to be able to shoe a horse.

In addition, many horses require custom made solutions: specialized sport horses, lameness cases etc where nothing off the rack will do.

For instance here's some I forged out from aluminium bar stock yesterday for a huge 18.2 dressage horse



Won't find these in any farrier supply.

The use of 3d printers has been mooted (and achieved), but by the time you program the printer to make something individual like this, I've banged them out, applied to the horse and sitting in the pub on my third pint.

 

[SirRumpole]

The use of 3d printers has been mooted (and achieved), but by the time you program the printer to make something individual like this, I've banged them out, applied to the horse and sitting in the pub on my third pint.

You are obviously lucky or smart enough to be in a niche occupation, and these sort of trades will survive, but they will be comparatively small scale imo, and won't offer large scale job creation that has previously been supplied by say, the motor vehicle industry.

Even though workers on a car assembly line are being replaced by robots, the spin offs in the vehicle component supply industry created thousands of jobs. Where are those jobs going once the car industry leaves ?

 

[wayneL]

You are obviously lucky or smart enough to be in a niche occupation, and these sort of trades will survive, but they will be comparatively small scale imo, and won't offer large scale job creation that has previously been supplied by say, the motor vehicle industry.

Even though workers on a car assembly line are being replaced by robots, the spin offs in the vehicle component supply industry created thousands of jobs. Where are those jobs going once the car industry leaves ?

Very true.

 

[SirRumpole]

The robot that takes your job should pay taxes says Bill Gates.



I agree with him, what do you think ?



https://qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes/

 

[pixel]

The robot that takes your job should pay taxes says Bill Gates.

Bill Gates should pay taxes, says Pixel.

 

[SirRumpole]

Bill Gates should pay taxes, says Pixel.

He hasn't been prosecuted for tax evasion so I presume he does pay taxes.

 

[pixel]

Automation only allows for a change of employment and often at a downgraded job. This leads to less leisure time. Past history shows that as a fact.:bad:

A mate of mine had a cushy job as a branch manager of one of the Big Banks.
When his branch was closed, he got a desk job, managing personal loans, start-up loans, etc. He thought about ways to make his job easier and ended up writing a couple of spreadsheets (Lotus Symphony, in those days). It worked pretty well, and he found more time to read and share his opinions at the coffee machine or water cooler. Around month end, he typed a few figures into his sheet, and the rest was done automatically.

And then he got bored and asked his Department Head for some similar tasks of other office staff "to make easier". You guessed it: His Boss saw his staff numbers - read, "prestige", "power", "importance" - shrink, and did not like it one bit. So, my mate got a teaching job: Teach a couple of Receptionists how to "manage" the loan portfolio with those spreadsheets. Like any red-blooded bloke, my mate thoroughly enjoyed that - until, a few weeks later, the ladies were given copies of his spreadsheets on their wordprocessor PCs, and he was "offered" early retirement.

Okay, not exactly "robots" that took over his job; but the direction is clear.

 

[SirRumpole]

Okay, not exactly "robots" that took over his job; but the direction is clear.

Good point, it's not just hardware but software that costs jobs.

I'm certainly not a Luddite, more efficiency is great and jobs will be created too, but we have to manage the change and I don't see anyone in government willing to face the challenge.

 

[Value Collector]

Good point, it's not just hardware but software that costs jobs.

I'm certainly not a Luddite, more efficiency is great and jobs will be created too, but we have to manage the change and I don't see anyone in government willing to face the challenge.

You might enjoy this book

 

[SirRumpole]

You might enjoy this book

I'll try and find it thanks.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...ligence-creator-slow-down-tesla-a7845491.html

We've got 10 years or so, apparently. :/

 

[vivazebull]

I read this in the Straits Times:
http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/preparing-for-singapore-40

It seems like they are trying to get their people to face the social issues instead of trying to pick which jobs will be winners. Our media seems to suggest that everything will be fine if you can code and speak like a human with empathy, but it appears that could be an attempt to keep aussies thinking about the footy more than the future. Anyway.

 

[willy1111]

The robot that takes your job should pay taxes says Bill Gates.



I agree with him, what do you think ?



https://qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes/

In a round about kinda way I think it would.

If the company makes more money from using a robot rather than a human, the company/shareholder would pay more tax.

 

[Tisme]

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...ligence-creator-slow-down-tesla-a7845491.html

We've got 10 years or so, apparently. :/

Delos -Westworld:

 

[Value Collector]

If the company makes more money from using a robot rather than a human, the company/shareholder would pay more tax.

Yep, or in alot of industries the cost reduction would flow through to lower prices once all the competition has robots, either its a plus for society.

 

[vivazebull]

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...ligence-creator-slow-down-tesla-a7845491.html

We've got 10 years or so, apparently. :/

Musk may be something of a false messiah but... I agree that we need to be proactive in regulating this before things get out of hand. Humans are too irresponsible to act ethically as a race generally and looking back at the disasters of capitalism we have had leaded petrol, asbestos, cigarettes among others just in the last century, and it seems like "it's different this time" is everyone's favorite warcry.

 

[basilio]

Maybe this trial of a basic universal income in Scotland will tell us more about coping with a world where jobs become lost to robots.

Scotland united in curiosity as councils trial universal basic income
Four local authorities tasked with turning utopian fantasy into reality with backing of first minister and multi-party support



Grassmarket and Victoria Street in Edinburgh, where universal basic income will be trialled next year Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo
Libby Brooks Scotland correspondent

Tue 26 Dec ‘17 04.00 AEDT Last modified on Tue 26 Dec ‘17 09.00 AEDT


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Universal basic income is, according to its many and various supporters, an idea whose time has come. The deceptively simple notion of offering every citizen a regular payment without means testing or requiring them to work for it has backers as disparate as Mark Zuckerberg, Stephen Hawking, Caroline Lucas and Richard Branson. Ed Miliband chose the concept to launch his ideas podcast Reasons to be Cheerful in the autumn.

But it is in Scotland that four councils face the task of turning basic income from a utopian fantasy to contemporary reality as they build the first pilot schemes in the UK, with the support of a £250,000 grant announced by the Scottish government last month and the explicit support of Nicola Sturgeon.

The concept of a universal basic income revolves around the idea of offering every individual, regardless of their existing benefit entitlement or earned income, a non-conditional flat-rate payment, with any income earned above that taxed progressively. The intention is to replace the welfare safety net with a platform on which people can build their lives, whether they choose to earn, learn, care or set up a business.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...-universal-basic-income-councils-pilot-scheme