The impact of technology on future jobs

[SirRumpole]

No doubt some here will think that this is socialist nonsense, but you can't deny it's happening now

Digital disruption: How science and the human touch can help employees resist the march of the machines

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-...lp-employees-resist-march-of-machines/6724020

 

[MrBurns]

No doubt some here will think that this is socialist nonsense, but you can't deny it's happening now

Digital disruption: How science and the human touch can help employees resist the march of the machines

The kids these days have to be careful about what career they pursue.

 

[SirRumpole]

The kids these days have to be careful about what career they pursue.

Yep, trouble is that none of us are psychics and we can't predict where technology is going, but I can imagine an automatic hairdresser being invented, go there goes another staple semi skilled trade.

 

[Tisme]

I recall lecturing an international symposium back in the mid eighties about automation and what the future held. The usual flat earth society people attended with their never ever, can't be done, you're talking s41t etc. But of course technology (and its explorers) doesn't care about "can't and won't" .... my only errors were predicting things later than when they actually occurred.

My son and daughter were raised in a house with a myriad of latest everything technology, computers, automated this and that. My daughter eventually settled on senior teaching of business and E commerce, which included robotics. She could see what was coming and pushed the technology barrow with zeal, even pushing senior programming training down to the junior classes .... then the government changed and the devolution began .......smart country ...NOT.

I fear we are becoming a giant Henry Ford style production plant, where ubiquitous job knowledge is shrinking down to mundane monotonous tasks.

 

[sptrawler]

I recall lecturing an international symposium back in the mid eighties about automation and what the future held. The usual flat earth society people attended with their never ever, can't be done, you're talking s41t etc. But of course technology (and its explorers) doesn't care about "can't and won't" .... my only errors were predicting things later than when they actually occurred.

My son and daughter were raised in a house with a myriad of latest everything technology, computers, automated this and that. My daughter eventually settled on senior teaching of business and E commerce, which included robotics. She could see what was coming and pushed the technology barrow with zeal, even pushing senior programming training down to the junior classes .... then the government changed and the devolution began .......smart country ...NOT.

I fear we are becoming a giant Henry Ford style production plant, where ubiquitous job knowledge is shrinking down to mundane monotonous tasks.

I guess you get that, when you encourage a system where the easy way, is the best way.

Very difficult to develop a clever country, when universities are bereft of students, wishing to do difficult courses.

 

[sydboy007]

Was talking about thsi to my housemate last night.

My feeling is by 2030 much of the work humans do today will be automated in some way.

Callc entres may no longer exist as natural language AI can handle the majority of calls.

Robotics in manufacturing will have moved into the high end and low end. Boeing already has systems being build for construction of the next gen 777X plane - Fuselage Automated Upright Build, or FAUB. With FAUB, fuselage sections will be built using automated, guided robots that will fasten the panels of the fuselage together, drilling and filling the more than approximately 60,000 fasteners that are today installed by hand.

IBM Watson and similar systems will make many middle management jobs redundant.

Even the entertainment industry wont be immune. At some point the processing power available will allow full CGI development of TV shows and movies that are so real you wont be able to tell it's all just pixels. Probably wont need too many actors then, though the creative side will likely survive.

I was reading a year or two back about an AI system in the medical field that had already come up with new discoveries that had been patentable.

Best to start laying the foundation of building up a claim on the factors of production other than labour. For most of us our ability to work may become a low value or valueless asset in the not too distant future.

 

[SirRumpole]

Best to start laying the foundation of building up a claim on the factors of production other than labour. For most of us our ability to work may become a low value or valueless asset in the not too distant future.

Totally agree, but it seems we haven't got it yet.



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-24/next-generation-chasing-dying-careers/6720528

 

[sptrawler]

Totally agree, but it seems we haven't got it yet.



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-24/next-generation-chasing-dying-careers/6720528

Yes I see the ABC report suggests careers in Health care and Age care, it will be interesting to see if we can afford it. I don't think they are high paying careers in third world economies.

Trying to get our education system back to a primary focus of learning, could be a good start. Maybe if the kids could actually read and write, before going to uni would help.
Then we may be able to develop a technical based economy, while we have the economy to support its development.

 

[Smurf1976]

I fear we are becoming a giant Henry Ford style production plant, where ubiquitous job knowledge is shrinking down to mundane monotonous tasks.

I'm not sure about the professions but that's already happening in the trades.

Want something new installed? Anyone can do that, no problem.

Want something complex actually diagnosed and fixed? Better find someone with grey (or no) hair then.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes I see the ABC report suggests careers in Health care and Age care, it will be interesting to see if we can afford it. I don't think they are high paying careers in third world economies.

Trying to get our education system back to a primary focus of learning, could be a good start. Maybe if the kids could actually read and write, before going to uni would help.
Then we may be able to develop a technical based economy, while we have the economy to support its development.

I guess this is the answer.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/m...-levels-or-rote-learning-20150826-gj7z91.html

I suppose the question needs asking, how were we 5th in 2003 and 17th now?

Maybe it is the introduction of student free days, feel good subjects, overseas excursions, team building etc.

Maybe in the 1970's and 80's ,they mainly taught maths, science, social studies and english, that might be why they scored so well back then.

No that isn't politically correct.

 

[explod]

Forget technology, its over the hill.

We will soon have to grow vegetables on the concrete just to survive.

Howeve i have been told rats are pretty good in a stir fry.

With almost everyone trying to make a quid trading, playing games and filling in time on ASF we have lost the idea of actual productivity.

 

[doctorj]

More and more things are being automated all the time. It's not just low/semi skilled blue colar work that is being automated, but increasingly white colar jobs too. We can all see how greater automation will come to manufacturing, driverless cars will replace taxis and drones will replace delivery guys, but people are already working on using AI to replace things like lawyers.

For me, the most interesting part of this is what it means for the nature of work itself. Smurf1976 hits the nail on the head:

Want something complex actually diagnosed and fixed? Better find someone with grey (or no) hair then.

What this means, for most jobs, business as usual can be handled by AI/robot etc. Humans will be needed for specific tasks that are unusual and therefore irregular. Therefore there will be no need to retain people on staff for every possible human intervention that a busines may require. Instead, the business will engage humans for specific projects on the basis of the particular expertise they require for that project.

Therefore the idea of a salaried full time job will be a relic of the past for most people who instead will earn on the basis of short term project/consultancy type contracts. This has all sorts of implications for people such as how they will finance their home purchase, what happens if they get sick and can't work, how they will find work, how they save for retirement and how they will build experience as new graduates.

 

[Tisme]

Therefore the idea of a salaried full time job will be a relic of the past for most people who instead will earn on the basis of short term project/consultancy type contracts. This has all sorts of implications for people such as how they will finance their home purchase, what happens if they get sick and can't work, how they will find work, how they save for retirement and how they will build experience as new graduates.

I seem to recall the war cry back in the 70's was that increasing automation would correspondingly decrease work load and thus increase leisure time ..... howse that working for members here...as well as it is for me?

 

[SirRumpole]

I seem to recall the war cry back in the 70's was that increasing automation would correspondingly decrease work load and thus increase leisure time ..... howse that working for members here...as well as it is for me?

People get a lot more leisure time if they are unemployed.

 

[Tisme]

People get a lot more leisure time if they are unemployed.

Correct and because of automation it's much cheaper to starve these days due to lower cost of production.

 

[qldfrog]

More and more things are being automated all the time. It's not just low/semi skilled blue colar work that is being automated, but increasingly white colar jobs too. We can all see how greater automation will come to manufacturing, driverless cars will replace taxis and drones will replace delivery guys, but people are already working on using AI to replace things like lawyers.

For me, the most interesting part of this is what it means for the nature of work itself. Smurf1976 hits the nail on the head:


What this means, for most jobs, business as usual can be handled by AI/robot etc. Humans will be needed for specific tasks that are unusual and therefore irregular. Therefore there will be no need to retain people on staff for every possible human intervention that a busines may require. Instead, the business will engage humans for specific projects on the basis of the particular expertise they require for that project.

Therefore the idea of a salaried full time job will be a relic of the past for most people who instead will earn on the basis of short term project/consultancy type contracts. This has all sorts of implications for people such as how they will finance their home purchase, what happens if they get sick and can't work, how they will find work, how they save for retirement and how they will build experience as new graduates.

very good points

 

[doctorj]

very good points

Thanks! The world has always changed quickly and people do tend to overestimate the impact (or the speed of impact), but the directionality of it is interesting.

I probably spend way too much time thinking about it, but to give an example:
Very soon legislation for driverless cars will be passed in the UK and some states in the US. The rest of the Western world will follow in time. That legislation will initially permit the use of driverless cars, but just as seatbelts became compulsory because they were safer, sooner or later driverless cars will become compulsory because they too will be safer than human drivers.

Statistics show that 95%+ of all car accidents are the result of some sort of human error. If these don't happen any more and insurance premiums are linked to risk and 35% of insurance premiums (in the US, probably similar for Australia) are car insurance related, what happens to the insurance industry?

 

[wayneL]

My trade is peculiar in that very little automation is possible.... And there is a trend towards less automation as superior results are only possible by custom delivery by a skilled human.

Less and lees people have the cajones to take it up however.

 

[SirRumpole]

The advent of 3D printing alone may cost untold jobs in the manufacturing industry. On the other hand it may save some manufacturers from bankruptcy and create jobs in the design, project management and finance areas.

 

[nioka]

I seem to recall the war cry back in the 70's was that increasing automation would correspondingly decrease work load and thus increase leisure time ..... howse that working for members here...as well as it is for me?

In 1952 I had an office job as a customs and shipping clerk. The office was "open plan" and included 65 typists (female naturally). Discussion in the lunch room was usually centred around the emerging automation in the home for which would make married domestic life (the main future for young girls) an easy life. Now they are not needed as typists and the only advantage of the automation in the home means they are able to go back to work. Something they probably need to do to balance the budget.

Automation only allows for a change of employment and often at a downgraded job. This leads to less leisure time. Past history shows that as a fact.:bad: