wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
- Joined
- 9 July 2004
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Another interesting cycle analysis is "the fourth turning" hypothesis and the book by the same name.He has beeen quiet because his constant bear market calls have been wrong over the years. But as I mentioned earlier I think this time will be different. The reason being because of interest rates. The great bull stocks and property in our life started when interest peaked in 1981 and this 40 year cycle is probably done. In the media there has been a lot of hype at the rising pace of inflation and IR. This is not a surprise at all because IR pattern in particular has developed as an ending diagonal or wedge in the Australia over the last 7 yearsand when the market reverses from such pattern it's a very abrupt change. So many ppl will be caught out moving forward.
And yes I think, as you've intimated, that the carnage will begin with the debt market, and it will be epic.