The future of energy generation and storage

sptrawler said:

I hope they start blowing Hazelwood up, next week, the sooner this is brought to a head the better.
ATM everyone is living in this fools paradise, how they think our living standards and welfare system can be supported, when our abilities to support it are crumbling around us.
Where the hell, do people think the money is going to come from?
People really need to think about it, what jobs, what industries, why build here?
It is bloody scary.IMO

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It's scary to read that we're in some sort of LNG supply crisis here in the Eastern states when there's like 3 brand spanking new LNG terminals selling overseas.

Then there's the blackouts in SA; the hiking of gas prices (due to supply insecurity) to households and businesses.

Who runs this place man.

If only we read a couple of Santos' presentations a few years back where they "warn" the NSW gov't of this impending supply crunch if environmental regulations aren't eased off.

And read a headline today about how the pensioners are going to screw over Australians.

They're living too long, not all are fit and working in their 70s or something, so they'll send Australia broke.

Dam old people letting us down. I mean it'snot like the country and its tax cuts to big businesses are screwing the poor and the elderly; it's actually the reverse - so we must cut it and let them die a bit sooner.

luutzu said:

True.

If most of us, say, put batteries and panels. It'll reduced the revenues utilities can generate, hence reducing its profit and business case.

The way efficiency and value are measured, profit margin have to rise and revenue better rise as well.

If batteries mean less demand and revenue have to rise... results in higher prices. Higher than their usual hike.

So we all end up paying for both the battery packs, the panels, its maintenance and replacement; pay indirectly for the mining and manufacturing of these and the inefficiency in small-scale installation... then either have to pay higher power prices or else it'll disappear.

Doesn't make economic sense if we think socially, collectively.

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Not really, If we all put batteries and panels, it reduces the revenues of the utilities.

But when the system falls on its ar$e everyone says, we may as well catch a boat to a third World Country.
At the moment, I don't see many refugees heading out on boats, not to say it won't happen in the future.

sptrawler said:

Not really, If we all put batteries and panels, it reduces the revenues of the utilities.

But when the system falls on its ar$e everyone says, we may as well catch a boat to a third World Country.
At the moment, I don't see many refugees heading out on boats, not to say it won't happen in the future.

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Yea it will reduce their revenues. But they will make up for it by hiking up prices.


well there's always New Zealand and Indonesia.

luutzu said:

It's scary to read that we're in some sort of LNG supply crisis here in the Eastern states when there's like 3 brand spanking new LNG terminals selling overseas.

Then there's the blackouts in SA; the hiking of gas prices (due to supply insecurity) to households and businesses.

Who runs this place man.

If only we read a couple of Santos' presentations a few years back where they "warn" the NSW gov't of this impending supply crunch if environmental regulations aren't eased off.

And read a headline today about how the pensioners are going to screw over Australians.

They're living too long, not all are fit and working in their 70s or something, so they'll send Australia broke.

Dam old people letting us down. I mean it'snot like the country and its tax cuts to big businesses are screwing the poor and the elderly; it's actually the reverse - so we must cut it and let them die a bit sooner.

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There is always the option, to find a better life, in a new Country.

sptrawler said:

Where the hell, do people think the money is going to come from?

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Stop selling our finite natural resources for bugger all for a start.

Put a tax on exports of all non renewables, and use those dollars to upgrade our electricity infrastructire and don't flush it down the loo in welfare especially thinks like negative gearing , CGT tax discounts, corporate tax cuts and tax free super to people who don't need it.

SirRumpole said:

Stop selling our finite natural resources for bugger all for a start.

Put a tax on exports of all non renewables, and use those dollars to upgrade our electricity infrastructire and don't flush it down the loo in welfare especially thinks like negative gearing , CGT tax discounts, corporate tax cuts and tax free super to people who don't need it.

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may I add NDIS on the list and fuel excise payback for miners just to list a few billions of wasted money we do not have.With interest bill of 1 billion a month now, there is quite which could be done if keeping within budget

The Hazelwood shutdown continued over the past day. In addition to the 3 units closed yesterday:

Unit 2 shut down at 00:20 this morning.

Unit 7 shut down at 10:35 this morning.

Which leaves units 1, 3 & 5 still running although unit 5 is almost shut down at the moment, generating 32 MW presently. Units 1 & 3 are still running reasonably normally, producing 317 MW between them.

This time tomorrow it will all be over.....

For other things of significance:

Loy Yang A now fully operational with all 4 units running.

Loy Yang B and Yallourn still both only 50% operational.

Newport (gas, Melbourne urban area) running flat out at the moment and Pelican Point (gas, Adelaide) running at full capacity for the first time in a long time. Notable point there is that not too long ago Engie were all but refusing to run Pelican Point - seems that they've changed their mind.

AEMO issued an update this afternoon, now showing lack of sufficient reserves for both Vic and SA: Summer 2017-18, March 2018, Summer 2018-19, March 2019. The forecast only goes two years in advance but in the absence of something new being built the problem will persist.

Biggest issue in the short term is price. Plenty of people wondering if anyone's taking a serious bath and will end up broke? Any retailer who was buying mostly on the spot market and who has customers locked in at set prices will be in trouble but nobody other than themselves would know that for sure at this point. Have to see what happens there.

luutzu said:

Who runs this place man.

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In ye olde days the answer was that engineers called the shots and got things done, supported in doing so by an army of workers from scientists through to manual labourers.

Then the financial gurus gained rather a lot of influence, over everything not just energy, and decided that we'd be better off with "the market" working out what to do and getting it done.

It's either working really well or it's a complete disaster depending on how you measure it.

And another one gone. Unit 5 shut down at 18:45 (Vic time).

Smurf1976 said:

In ye olde days the answer was that engineers called the shots and got things done, supported in doing so by an army of workers from scientists through to manual labourers.

Then the financial gurus gained rather a lot of influence, over everything not just energy, and decided that we'd be better off with "the market" working out what to do and getting it done.

It's either working really well or it's a complete disaster depending on how you measure it.

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Pretty messed up isn't it?

In practically all business and gov't entities, most CEOs and chiefs now came from business and finance schools instead of the technical ones the business is supposed to be working in.

That's not to say that finance guys can't also be competent engineer and such. Just that when you're trained in the art of finance and accounting, everything is about the top and the bottom line.

So instead of being trained and having an interests in building a better mousetrap, thinking far ahead and innovate... a company can make the same kind of money, if not more, by playing with stock buybacks, buying politicians for favourable incentives and deregulation - passing the costs onto the environment and someone else.

Then on top of all these we have the financial markets and its "analysts" who see no further than next quarter's results. So if an investment doesn't pay off in a real hurry, stock price get smashed and the CEO might get replaced or lose their options and bonuses.

But yes, whether it's working or not depends on where you're standing.

Well the latest from W.A is, the new Labor Government is saying that consumers aren't paying, the real cost of producing electricity.
Well that doesn't sound good, they were saying pre election that privatisation would drive up prices, sounds like they're going to drive up prices anyway.
Wow who would have guessed that.lol

sptrawler said:

Well the latest from W.A is, the new Labor Government is saying that consumers aren't paying, the real cost of producing electricity.
Well that doesn't sound good, they were saying pre election that privatisation would drive up prices, sounds like they're going to drive up prices anyway.
Wow who would have guessed that.lol

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A public utility shouldn't be run for "profit". Not profit as measured by costs and revenue.

This is how they prep public enterprise to be sold off and privatised. That it's "losing" money, not efficient etc.

Let say a public utility were to make real money, great return on capital and margins. What would that mean to the overall economy?

Higher costs to business mean those costs plus margin, will go up and pass onto consumers; the average citizen will see their bills go up, they'll try to get a raise, or more likely, fail to get a raise and so will cut their own consumption. etc. etc.

But of course our public servants chose not to frame it that way. Can't flog off public monopolies if you're honest like that.

So they measure it like a private business where the lower the expenses, the more costs they can pass onto other people, the more "efficient" and "profitable" the business is.

In other words, WA is in trouble if its new gov't talks like that.

Great series of pictures and info about Hazelwood in The Guardian. It is certainly a very tired operation. As Smurph would have noted the major reason it has been closed down is the amount of work required to keep it going is uneconomical.

There is going to be a big whack of money required to clean up the site as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...t-days-of-hazelwood-power-station-in-pictures

basilio said:

Great series of pictures and info about Hazelwood in The Guardian. It is certainly a very tired operation. As Smurph would have noted the major reason it has been closed down is the amount of work required to keep it going is uneconomical.

There is going to be a big whack of money required to clean up the site as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...t-days-of-hazelwood-power-station-in-pictures

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Absolutely, why would they have spent money refurbishing, when Government initiatives were crippling them?

There will be a big whack of money, to clean up the site, also there will be a bigger whack of money filling the generation hole they leave.

I'm just looking forward, to the explanations, as to the Australian social decline that will unfold.
W.A is in a post mining phase recession, Sydney and Melbourne are living on a property boom, where is the REAL growth going to come from?
Where are the real jobs going to come from? it isn't making cars or anything, our education levels are dropping by World standards.
So what is going to save us, and pay for the most expensive power, in the World?
Basillio, you're the champion of the cause, maybe you can enlighten us.

I'm wondering what State Govts actually do these days?

Tisme said:

I'm wondering what State Govts actually do these days?

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What they do they don't seem to do particularly well.

Like schools. How are our education results these days on an international comparison basis ?

sptrawler said:

Absolutely, why would they have spent money refurbishing, when Government initiatives were crippling them?

There will be a big whack of money, to clean up the site, also there will be a bigger whack of money filling the generation hole they leave.

I'm just looking forward, to the explanations, as to the Australian social decline that will unfold.
W.A is in a post mining phase recession, Sydney and Melbourne are living on a property boom, where is the REAL growth going to come from?
Where are the real jobs going to come from? it isn't making cars or anything, our education levels are dropping by World standards.
So what is going to save us, and pay for the most expensive power, in the World?
Basillio, you're the champion of the cause, maybe you can enlighten us.

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Who will save us? Ask any politician and they'll tell you it's the rich that will save us.

Just before they do, we'll have to give them more money.

Tisme said:

I'm wondering what State Govts actually do these days?

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Deciding which state enterprise to privatise next?

It's all over now.

Hazelwood unit 3 shut down at 10:45 am today.

Unit 1, the first to commence operation and the last to close, shut down at 17:05.

A short summary of the operating history of lignite (brown coal) fired power stations in Victoria:

Yallourn A: 1924 (expanded 1928) to 1968. 75 MW (6 x 12.5 MW). First major project completed by the SECV who ran it throughout its life.

Yallourn Briquette factory: 1924 to 1970. 10 MW (1 x 10 MW) with power generation a sideline to the main activity producing briquettes. Briquette production capacity 400 tonnes / day originally, expanded to 1200 tonnes per day in 1931. Built and operated by the SECV.

Yallourn B: 1932 (expanded 1938) to 1969. 100 MW (4 x 25 MW). Built and operated by the SECV.

Yallourn C: 1954 to 1984. 106 MW (2 x 50 MW + 1 x 6 MW). First to use pulverised fuel firing, previous plants burnt the coal on a moving grate. There was a spare boiler, 6 installed but only 5 were needed to reach full output, in order to give very high reliability (boilers being the source of most problems hence the spare). Built and operated by the SECV.

Yallourn D: 1958 to 1986. 100 MW (2 x 50 MW). Virtually identical to Yallourn C both technically and in physical form and also had a spare boiler. Built and operated by the SECV.

Morwell: 1958 to 2014. 170 MW (1 x 20 MW, 3 x 30 MW, 1 x 60 MW) plus two briquette production lines with a combined capacity of 4100 tonnes per day. Built by the SECV, privatised in the 1990's with the final owner being Energy Brix.

Yallourn E: 1961 to 1989. 240 MW (2 x 120 MW). First unitised plant with a single boiler per turbine and alternator, all previous plant being of a steam range design (multiple boilers feeding a common steam "range" from which the turbines drew steam). That basic approach to design would still be considered "modern" today although obviously efficiency has improved over the years for newer plant. Built and operated by the SECV.

Hazelwood: 1964 to 2017. 1600 MW (8 x 200 MW). Built by the SECV, various owners from the mid-1990's onward with Engie as the final owner.

Anglesea: 1969 to 2015. 150 MW (1 x 150 MW). Unique among Victorian brown coal power stations in that it was always privately owned by Alcoa throughout its entire history from construction to closure.

Still operating:

Yallourn W: Commissioned 1973 (first stage) and 1982 (second stage). Plant comprises 2 x 350 MW (first stage) and 2 x 375 MW (second stage) units all upgraded in more recent times to about 380 MW each. Built by the SECV, presently owned by Energy Australia.

Loy Yang A: Commissioned 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988 (4 units). Plant originally comprised 4 x 500 MW units, later upgraded to produce 2210 MW units between them. 3 are identical however the other, unit 2, was originally intended to be installed at Newport D power station (gas-fired, Melbourne) but relocated to Loy Yang after the second unit at Newport D was scrapped for political reasons in the 1970's. Built by the SECV, presently owned by AGL.

Loy Yang B: Commissioned 1993 and 1996 (2 units) and only ever half built (originally planned as a duplicate of Loy Yang A). Capacity is 1070 MW although there are plans to increase this modestly toward the end of this decade. Started by the SECV but privatised during construction with the present owner being Engie.

Total: 7001 MW (original designed capacity including Anglesea and the briquette factories) installed in the form of 42 generators located in 11 power stations at 5 sites fed by 4 primary and one supplementary (Yallourn North) mines.

No other Australian state has ever used lignite (brown coal) to fire power stations. The coal at Leigh Creek (SA) was often referred to as being that but it's actually sub-bituminous coal (low grade black coal). SA did have a serious look at building a brown coal plant in the 1980's however as did Tasmania although neither went ahead with it.

I certainly hope this rapid shift from coal generation, has some upside, just hope we don't become World leaders at shooting ourselves in the foot.
Currently the reasoning appears to be ideology driven, rather than a clever and cunning plan to put us in a World leading position, I really hope someone is at the wheel.lol