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The future of energy generation and storage

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Value Collector said:
I am, pretty sure that got canned, the Bonaparte is much larger anyway, and pipelines can be extended into WA from there easily.
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They had something like 150 people here in Brisbane working away since the mid 2000's; that would be a big unrecovered cost to Exxon and ESSO
 
Tisme said:
They had something like 150 people here in Brisbane working away since the mid 2000's; that would be a big unrecovered cost to Exxon and ESSO
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Maybe we are talking about different pipelines, I was talking about the one APA was considering, but they canned it when it became known the old gas fields could supply enough gas
 
According to Geoscience Australia there's 668.55 BCM (billion cubic metres) of gas in Bonaparte.

That's equivalent to about 11 years' consumption for the Eastern states including exports (or about 40 years without exports).

So it's significant but it won't keep the lights on forever and it won't change the situation if we simply expand LNG export capacity - and they've already got plans to do just that.
 
noco said:
Smurf, how long will solar panels last before having to be replaced and how long will wind generators last before they break down and have to be replaced?
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In theory it's about 25 years until a wind farm needs major components replaced. For solar there's a slow drop off in production, they lose about 20% over 20 years, and then at some future point total failure would be likely.

The truth is though that nobody really knows for certain. There are old solar panels made 35+ years ago still working today but they are very different to to what is being installed today. We just don't have enough experience with the mass scale installation of a dozen Chinese solar panels on house roofs to know how long they'll really last in practice so it's anyone's guess.

What can be said is that with a typical grid-connect solar system the inverter is the weak link and likely to fail well before the panels fail. A decent one such as SMA should last a decade or more, you can extend the warranty on those up to 20 years for a price, but some of the cheap generic ones went into landfill years ago and not long after installation - and there's plenty of those which have been installed because they're cheap and consumers have bought based on price.

So nobody really knows for certain when it comes to rooftop solar as it has actually been installed with largely cheapish components and installation also done down to a price. That there will be (already are) problems is a given but nobody can be sure what's going to happen 5, 10 or 20 years from now.

For wind there's more experience and the 25 years seems right in an order of magnitude sense. It's not 10 years and it's not likely to be 100, 25 years seems about right. But again there's a lack of experience with current production wind turbines to be certain. It's one thing to say that a 144kW (0.144 MW) machine built in the 1980's is still running but as with solar that's a different beast to the 1.75 - 3 MW machines most commonly used in Australian wind farms. Only time will tell what really happens.
 
Smurf1976 said:
In theory it's about 25 years until a wind farm needs major components replaced. For solar there's a slow drop off in production, they lose about 20% over 20 years, and then at some future point total failure would be likely.

The truth is though that nobody really knows for certain. There are old solar panels made 35+ years ago still working today but they are very different to to what is being installed today. We just don't have enough experience with the mass scale installation of a dozen Chinese solar panels on house roofs to know how long they'll really last in practice so it's anyone's guess.

What can be said is that with a typical grid-connect solar system the inverter is the weak link and likely to fail well before the panels fail. A decent one such as SMA should last a decade or more, you can extend the warranty on those up to 20 years for a price, but some of the cheap generic ones went into landfill years ago and not long after installation - and there's plenty of those which have been installed because they're cheap and consumers have bought based on price.

So nobody really knows for certain when it comes to rooftop solar as it has actually been installed with largely cheapish components and installation also done down to a price. That there will be (already are) problems is a given but nobody can be sure what's going to happen 5, 10 or 20 years from now.

For wind there's more experience and the 25 years seems right in an order of magnitude sense. It's not 10 years and it's not likely to be 100, 25 years seems about right. But again there's a lack of experience with current production wind turbines to be certain. It's one thing to say that a 144kW (0.144 MW) machine built in the 1980's is still running but as with solar that's a different beast to the 1.75 - 3 MW machines most commonly used in Australian wind farms. Only time will tell what really happens.
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Thanks so much for that Smurf...You have answered my questions well...I do hope Sir Rumpole has also absorbed your expertise.
 
noco said:
Thanks so much for that Smurf...You have answered my questions well...I do hope Sir Rumpole has also absorbed your expertise.
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The figures Smurph gave looked remarkably similar to what you could have got yourself, but yes thanks to Smurph for the verification.
 
So a private operator shed too much power in SA, because of a software "glitch".

Almost like a conspiracy theory set of circumstances that plays well for politics.
 
Smurf will be heading to SA tomorrow.

With a bit of luck the lights stay on. But I'll be sure to charge the phone tonight just in case - shouldn't need to make any calls but the torch function could come in handy (let's hope not....). :)

As for power supplies, Hazelwood (Vic) seems to be having problems at the moment and is running at 64% of capacity with no unit at full output. I don't know the reason but given the way it's running I'll assume a coal supply problem as most likely.

It hasn't been going too badly in recent times, generally running at about 86% of its original capacity, but with only 43 days left until it's all over I expect it'll be left to start falling in a heap pretty soon. Not much point spending on maintaining anything at this point when the next major planned work on the place is demolition.

Replacement? Um, err, well no actually they're not doing that bit. This will get interesting to say the lest over the coming year physically (power supply), financially and politically.....
 
The owners (Engie) have said they're going to close by 31 March 2017 and will then go about rehabilitating the site. At this stage everyone, including AEMO, is taking that to mean they'll close on that day not before although it's a fair assumption that not all 8 units will be running on that afternoon.

The coal mine is right next to the power station so the mine would be the focus of that "rehabilitation" work far more than the power station itself but presumably they'll physically knock down the power station.

With the mine to be closed there's zero point keeping the power station in place unless someone thinks it makes a good static monument or something like that. No coal = won't be generating power so it's a closure rather than a mothballing in practice no matter what they do with the power station as such.
 
It certainly appears we are rushing toward the abyss, one would hope there is a soft landing.
At Kwinana, from my understanding, the stage A units were mothballed and the stage c units were just shut down, no nitrogen sealing.
But the scenario here in W.A is somewhat different to the Eastern States, we still have a lot of base load generation, both gas and coal.
Renewables are being adopted, but in a much more controlled manner, it would seem.
It would be difficult to attract heavy industry to Australia, with our power costs and wages costs, I guess one of these will be sorted out eventually.
 
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Likely sequence:

Hazelwood closes at the end of March.

No problems apart from a rise in prices until we get a cold snap in Winter. Then the gas price goes through the roof, due to gas-fired generation running more (since we don't have Hazelwood) combined with heating demand for gas (and Vic uses an incredible amount of gas for heating when it's seriously cold). Maybe a few big industries shut down temporarily due to the gas price (those that use a lot of gas).

Then it all calms down.

Then we get a heatwave in SA and Vic next summer and the lights go out in a big way.

Then the political **** storm really gets underway. You ain't seen nothing yet....

Then good ole Murphy strikes. The hydro generators find themselves dealing with a drought so walk away from the base load market (still generating at the peaks of course) and something breaks down with thermal (coal / gas) plant. Now we've got an economic (price) crisis as well as a physical supply one.

Then someone proposes something drastic. New coal plant. Big push into pumped hydro possibly. Nationalisation if the political mood swings that way. But something drastic happens simply because anyone proposing a firm plan that the general public can grasp will find themselves elected on that issue alone.

A decade ago nobody outside the industry or with a personal interest really thought about power supply at all. You turned the switch on and it just worked. Maybe you'd driven past a power station sometime or went on a public tour of one out of interest to see how it worked but that was it really. Nobody seriously doubted that we had a robust system and any level of public interest was about curiosity rather than actual concern.

Now it's an issue with a moderate level of mainstream interest. The masses know things aren't going too well but thus far they can still pay the bill and it still works most of the time. They see a need for action but wouldn't call it a crisis.

Go forward a year and in the absence of some bigger problem (recession, massive natural disaster, actual terrorist attack etc) the way it's heading it'll be the No.1 issue politically with everyone from your average hair dresser or taxi driver (or anyone else who ordinarily has no interest in things electrical) knowing there's a problem and just wanting it fixed.

The power grid is collectively the largest and most complex machine man has ever built. But it's not rocket science, it's all very well understood how to do it, all we need to do is apply that knowledge in practice. We're not trying to put a man on mars or get people living to age 200 here, power generation is all very well understood in terms of how to do it and just needs to be applied.

We used to be world leaders at this stuff. Vic was very highly regarded in the use of low grade fuels internationally. Tas has plenty of "world first" stuff in the hydro system. The Snowy system is one of the most impressive feats of engineering ever done anywhere. WA got a reputation for getting things done real quick and it all worked. Qld and NSW had the most efficient coal-fired plants on earth at one point. NT had one of the first combined cycle plants in permanent operation. SA didn't have anything remarkable technically but they still had a decent system and managed to keep the cost reasonable despite a smallish scale and using fuel that came from the middle of nowhere. Australia as a whole had the third cheapest power in the OECD, beaten only by NZ and Canada with their heavy reliance on cheap hydro.

That all happened because we focused on the engineering. Politics and profit hasn't been a good replacement for that.
 
Madness isn't it ? It take only a modicum of logic and the capacity to count up generating capacity to recognise that in 12 months we face serious, chronic energy problems. The stuff that shuts down industry, transport, hospitals, homes businesses.

A problem that can't be solved quickly because essentially we will need more reliable base load power. I wonder what would happen if Smurfs analysis were put on a postcard and sent to every politician in Australia with the phrase.

"xxxxing do something NOW."
 
SirRumpole said:
This piece could almost have been written by Smurph.

https://theconversation.com/australias-electricity-market-is-not-agile-and-innovative-enough-to-keep-up-72870?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The Weekend Conversation - 67784967&utm_content=The Weekend Conversation - 67784967+Version+A+CID_4144c2abd1e2d39059aecd53706af213&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Australias electricity market is not agile and innovative enough to keep up
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I can see some major holes in that article:

firstly Malcom Turnbull and Coy didn't write it;
it wouldn't pass the Bolt and Newscorp test for dishonesty;
it doesn't blame South Australia for the load shedding in NSW;
it's a blatant piece of leftie propaganda that uses a semblance facts instead of overt fiction to support the argument;
it
 
Tisme said:
I can see some major holes in that article:

firstly Malcom Turnbull and Coy didn't write it;
it wouldn't pass the Bolt and Newscorp test for dishonesty;
it doesn't blame South Australia for the load shedding in NSW;
it's a blatant piece of leftie propaganda that uses a semblance facts instead of overt fiction to support the argument;
it
Click to expand...

Well, nothing is perfect. ;)
 

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