The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

Blue Waters is owned by a U.S money machine and is a pile of junk

And its contract with Synergy apparently expires next year.

 

[qldfrog]

Further to my previous post and based on my current experience SEQld, last 3 days, no wind nor sun available:

As can be seen above, on a domestic usage, vs a normal day, a 3 day period of bad weather event in Qld during summer would require nearly 4 full days of usage stored in battery (chemical/pumped hydro) or provided by backup /gas /coal...
I let you sink in the numbers considering that we have anecdotal hydro and domestic usage was actually low: no EV loading, no AC, or heating.
Even as is, wo EVs or electrification, we need a non solar / wind baseload, that is pure raw number, unless we expect people to cook and heat by firecamp with no light.
After all, mankind did it for a million year and they had no gluten intolerance or diabetes
I personally invested in both failed attempts in Australia for wave energy and deep granite hot water energy.
So we will have to choose nuclear..which will take ages, restart coal..which will take ages or bump gas power plants..which will take gas..and will take ages as we are legally preventing its exploration..
Expect blackouts, horrendous power bills and knee jerk decisions ...
As for a nation of EVs and the future of industry/economy, I let you judge.
And yes. I know, grid is interconnected , and while we had crappy weather here in qld, Victoria and WA were burning with wind and blue sky
Nevertheless a real world graph of what a local battery couple solar setup produces tells you all what we need to know imho

 

[qldfrog]

Technical add on: the red bar in the graph of generator input is the auto fortnightly 10 min maintenance run .

 

[Smurf1976]

Muja is the walking dead, Blue Waters is owned by a U.S money machine and is a pile of junk plus Collie PS is too big to be flexible.

Some data on capacity factor of WA coal plant over the past decade:

For those unfamiliar, capacity factor is simply average output over a period of time as a % of station capacity. Eg if capacity is 100MW and average output is 50MW then that's a capacity factor of 50%. Etc.

Note this is calendar years not financial years.

Bluewaters 1 & 2:
2014 = 79.1%
2015 = 81.2%
2016 = 77.0%
2017 = 61.8%
2018 = 76.9%
2019 = 84.6%
2020 = 82.6%
2021 = 76.5%
2022 = 58.5%
2023 = 64.7%

Collie:
2014 = 76.9%
2015 = 73.4%
2016 = 71.3%
2017 = 73.8%
2018 = 62.9%
2019 = 42.8%
2020 = 25.6%
2021 = 36.2%
2022 = 36.9%
2023 = 35.1%

Muja C & D:
2014 = 43.5%
2015 = 49.7%
2016 = 59.1%
2017 = 66.6%
2018 = 49.0%
2019 = 56.4%
2020 = 43.0%
2021 = 56.4%
2022 = 46.6%*
2023 = 52.9%*

*Note only 3 units still operating at Muja. Unit 5, aka C station unit 1, permanently ceased generation (closed) September 2022. Capacity factor is based on plant in service, so from that closure is based on the three remaining units only.

I don't know the details of financial matters in WA but with the recent figures for Collie in particular I can't imagine it's even remotely profitable.

 

[sptrawler]

Some data on capacity factor of WA coal plant over the past decade:

For those unfamiliar, capacity factor is simply average output over a period of time as a % of station capacity. Eg if capacity is 100MW and average output is 50MW then that's a capacity factor of 50%. Etc.

Note this is calendar years not financial years.

Bluewaters 1 & 2:
2014 = 79.1%
2015 = 81.2%
2016 = 77.0%
2017 = 61.8%
2018 = 76.9%
2019 = 84.6%
2020 = 82.6%
2021 = 76.5%
2022 = 58.5%
2023 = 64.7%

Collie:
2014 = 76.9%
2015 = 73.4%
2016 = 71.3%
2017 = 73.8%
2018 = 62.9%
2019 = 42.8%
2020 = 25.6%
2021 = 36.2%
2022 = 36.9%
2023 = 35.1%

Muja C & D:
2014 = 43.5%
2015 = 49.7%
2016 = 59.1%
2017 = 66.6%
2018 = 49.0%
2019 = 56.4%
2020 = 43.0%
2021 = 56.4%
2022 = 46.6%*
2023 = 52.9%*

*Note only 3 units still operating at Muja. Unit 5, aka C station unit 1, permanently ceased generation (closed) September 2022. Capacity factor is based on plant in service, so from that closure is based on the three remaining units only.

I don't know the details of financial matters in WA but with the recent figures for Collie in particular I can't imagine it's even remotely profitable.

Add to that the money the State Govt is having to pour in to stump up the coal supply.
It is all becoming crazy, menwhile we are buying Chinese batteries to close down the generators, it is all becoming a receipe for disaster IMO.
But then again, the cheer squads will keep on keeping on, that's the way it is these days get the loonies cheering then get the media coverage. Lol

 

[Smurf1976]

For the record, 2023 capacity factor for coal plant in other states. Listed in order from oldest to newest within each state.

Queensland:
Gladstone = 45.8%
Tarong = 78.3%
Callide B = 65.2%
Stanwell = 66.0%
Callide C = Out of service
Millmerran = 79.5%
Tarong North = 62.7%
Kogan Creek = 88.8%

NSW:
**Liddell = 55.0%
Vales Point B = 58.5%
Eraring = 58.8%
Bayswater = 59.8%
Mt Piper = 47.1%

**Liddell power station permanently closed during the year. This figure is for the 3 machines operated and covers the period 1 January to closure.

Victoria:
Yallourn W = 65.5%
Loy Yang A = 75.1%
Loy Yang B = 85.0%

 

[sptrawler]

The first thing I would be doing is get a battery manufacturing facility built, they have just put nickel on the critical list, which will be just throwing good money after bad.
There is no doubt for at least the next 20years, batteries are going to be the go to solution, so why not spend $5b on a manufacturing plant, at least then if things go pear shaped with China we can keep the lights on.

Therefore it is dumb not to build a battery manufacturing plant, they need replacing on a regular basis, they are going to be critical infrastructure, we are sourcing them from a country we are wary of.

None of it makes one iota of sense.
It is just mind numbingly dumb not to build the capability to manufacture our own batteries when we have all the materials.
.

Well the U.S has already realised the issue of sourcing your grid batteries from China, it may not be a problem, but if it is a problem it is a huge problem IMO.

CATL big battery to be removed from US Marine base over China security fears | RenewEconomy

American energy company Duke Energy pressured by Congress to decommission big batteries made by China's CATL from their installation at a military base.

reneweconomy.com.au

American energy company Duke Energy has agreed under pressure from the United States Congress to decommission energy storage batteries produced by Chinese battery giant CATL at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune in North Carolina over concerns that the batteries pose a security risk.

Reuters reported late last week that Duke Energy had made plans to decommission the CATL-made batteries that were commissioned less than a year ago in March 2023.


The 11MW, one hour battery storage project was designed to be run in conjunction with an adjacent 13MW solar facility on a leased site within Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune.

“Battery storage is an important resource for our transition to cleaner energy,” said Kendal Bowman, Duke Energy’s North Carolina state president, speaking at the project’s commissioning.

“Pairing the energy storage system with our existing solar facility at Camp Lejeune helps strengthen the reliability of our energy grid and makes better use of our existing solar generation.”

However, by year’s end, Duke Energy had disconnected the battery storage project, citing concerns raised by lawmakers and experts around CATL’s close ties to China’s ruling Communist Party.

Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers have argued the United States risks increased dependency on one of its major geopolitical rivals, and that the batteries and its inverters may have cyber vulnerabilities that state-backed hackers could use to compromise the country’s electricity grid.

Duke Energy’s decision to decommission the battery project – paired with its promise to entirely phase out the use of CATL products from it supply chain – was welcomed by the House Select Committee leadership. t.

“We are grateful to Duke for taking this needed first step to protect U.S. grid security from Chinese Communist Party-controlled companies operating in Americans’ backyard. Others that continue to work with CATL, and other companies under the control of the CCP, should take note.”

 

[SirRumpole]

New gas power plant operational in Illawarra, but green hydrogen fuel is not yet a goer.

Green hydrogen supply chain 'not there yet' as $300 million coal alternative starts pumping out power

EnergyAustralia says meeting its green hydrogen target for a new gas power plant in NSW is becoming more challenging.

www.abc.net.au

 

[qldfrog]

And something which is an elephant in the room for Australia
Events like that:

Solar farm pelted by giant hail as severe storm ripped through Nebraska

The 4.375 MWac solar farm was damaged June 23 by the same storm cell that tore through a Wyoming coal mine, leaving eight people injured.

www.renewableenergyworld.com

I like how the green author of the article managed to slide that this event hurted workers at a coal facility ..
Never give up
I personally know that the sunshine coast council solar farm was built and remain disconnected for years after floods a couple years ago..so all computations about expected costs and productive life of solar panels need to be taken with a bit of scepticism .
On a side note, AGL had a SEQld event yesterday between 5 and 6pm where you got paid extra to not use power..so I assume the grid was under stress.

 

[basilio]

Came across this clever technology after following up a story posted by qldfrog.
Essentially a company that incorporates super capacitors inside electrical cables. The cables themselves now become sources of energy storage and an instant supply of power.

Anyone else seen these in operation ?

Rapid Response Energy Storage | Installation Ready Supercapacitor Solutions

Capacitech is a rapid response energy storage leader building high-power and space-conscious energy storage systems for the grid and microgrids. Our products enhance renewable energy sources, energy storage assets, and overall power quality. Our supercapacitor products are installation ready, modula

www.capacitechenergy.com

 

[mullokintyre]

Came across this clever technology after following up a story posted by qldfrog.
Essentially a company that incorporates super capacitors inside electrical cables. The cables themselves now become sources of energy storage and an instant supply of power.

Anyone else seen these in operation ?

Rapid Response Energy Storage | Installation Ready Supercapacitor Solutions

Capacitech is a rapid response energy storage leader building high-power and space-conscious energy storage systems for the grid and microgrids. Our products enhance renewable energy sources, energy storage assets, and overall power quality. Our supercapacitor products are installation ready, modula

www.capacitechenergy.com

I think it will only work for short term interruptions.
Mick

 

[basilio]

I think it will only work for short term interruptions.
Mick

Indeed. But the technology is intriguing and the installation of the super capacitors inside electrical wiring is elegant.
Again. Has anyone seen them in operation, ?

 

[SirRumpole]

Staggering' rise of rooftop solar to put all other power generation in the shade, report finds​

In coming decades, solar cells on Australian rooftops could provide more energy than we need, a report shows. But there is a catch

The capacity of rooftop solar in Australia will eclipse the country's entire electricity demand in coming decades, according to a report that charts the technology's rise.

www.abc.net.au

 

[mullokintyre]

Staggering' rise of rooftop solar to put all other power generation in the shade, report finds​

In coming decades, solar cells on Australian rooftops could provide more energy than we need, a report shows. But there is a catch

The capacity of rooftop solar in Australia will eclipse the country's entire electricity demand in coming decades, according to a report that charts the technology's rise.

www.abc.net.au

Just a little bit of pie in the sky wishful thinking.
Below is a chart from Roy Morgan research on the installation of PV systems in OZ.

As can be seen , the growth has stagnated somewhat.
Been running at around 300,000 installs for the last three years.
I searched for a while to find comparable 2023 figures, but was unsuccessful.
The report from the ABC as mentioned above says

Almost 20 gigawatts of small-scale solar has already been installed across Australia's biggest electricity system, but a report from Green Energy Markets predicts this will more than triple by 2054, even by conservative assumptions.

More than triple? That would take the percentage to almost 100%.
Even allowing for new dwellings, currently running at around anywhere from 120k to 170k, and assuming an average 200k houses per year, plus a generous 75% would be suitable for rooftop solar, the percentage of homes with installed solar wold have to rise to over 60% penetration.
That just aint gunna happen.
Not every home is suitable, not every homeowner wants to, and there is no way under the current technology to have that sort of VRE power attaching to the grid.
Some of it would have to be standalone off grid.
Mick

 

[Smurf1976]

I searched for a while to find comparable 2023 figures, but was unsuccessful.

From data collated by AEMO, which can be regarded as "official" and should be accurate, there's quite a difference between the states.

Note all this data is for rooftop solar regardless of where it's installed - so it's business as well as residential. It doesn't include large scale installations, that is solar farms, but if an electricity company puts some panels on the roof of an office building or workshop then that's included here same as anyone else doing it.

All WA data refers to the south-west, in electrical terms the South West Interconnected System only and does not include remote areas. Other state's it's effectively the entire population unless they're off grid.

In short, recent (2023 calendar year) rates of installation by state are quite out of line with population, most notably NSW. List of states by recent rates of solar installation from largest to smallest in order from largest:

Queensland
Victoria
SA
NSW
WA
ACT
Tasmania

In terms of the total installed base, that is the cumulative total of installations, it's:

Queensland
Victoria
NSW
SA
WA
ACT
Tasmania

Much of that's easily explainable by population and climate, it's the expected result that Tasmania's down the bottom for example, but the real standout is the relative lack of interest in NSW. It's smaller than SA in terms of 2023 installation rates, and that figure is absolute not per capita to be clear, and it's not far ahead of SA in terms of total to date and again that figure is absolute not per capita. So there's clearly less interest in NSW.

In terms of the trend:

Total = down. Installation rate peaked in 2020.

NSW, ACT = peaked in 2019

WA, SA, Tasmania = peaked 2020

Victoria, Queensland = peaked 2021

In all states the 2023 installation rate was lower than the 2022 rate. In Tasmania the difference was minor in % terms, in other states a more significant decline occurred.

In all states except SA, Tas and ACT there's been a decline each year since the peak. These three all saw a small increase in 2022 compared to 2021. Noting they're the smallest population states that may simply be natural volatility due to consumer interest, weather, availability of workers for installations, etc.

2023 rate as a % of the peak year:

Tasmania = 73%
Queensland = 72%
Victoria = 69%
ACT = 57%
SA = 49%
WA = 35%
NSW = 29%

So it's down in all states but again NSW stands out with the greatest decline from the peak.

My own view is that it'll ultimately end up with around 50% of households installing solar with a bias toward the smaller states and regional areas being more likely to install it.

Now for cumulative installations per capita. Figure is VA per person. In layman's terms VA isn't quite the same thing as Watts but it's near enough, you could take it as being a figure in Watts and be close enough.

SA = 1342
Queensland = 1024
WA = 845
ACT = 833
Victoria = 654
Tasmania = 581
NSW = 344

With the exception of Tas where other factors provide a rational explanation for less interest in solar*, overall it does seem the big two cities are less keen. Sydney especially isn't keen, a pattern that's pretty consistent with all this.

*Solar certainly does work in Tas in a technical sense but the lower annual yield, combined with typical household electricity use being low during summer when production peaks, diminishes the economics considerably. Unlike states where there's a high correlation between the sun shining and high electricity use for air-conditioning during summer.

 

[sptrawler]

The other issue with rooftop solar is, the early installs are now getting quite old, I have replaced two systems, are these counted as extra installs?
It will be interesting to see how many replace old systems when they get end of life and feed in tarrifs are very low.
Interesting times.

 

[SirRumpole]

From data collated by AEMO, which can be regarded as "official" and should be accurate, there's quite a difference between the states.

Note all this data is for rooftop solar regardless of where it's installed - so it's business as well as residential. It doesn't include large scale installations, that is solar farms, but if an electricity company puts some panels on the roof of an office building or workshop then that's included here same as anyone else doing it.

All WA data refers to the south-west, in electrical terms the South West Interconnected System only and does not include remote areas. Other state's it's effectively the entire population unless they're off grid.

In short, recent (2023 calendar year) rates of installation by state are quite out of line with population, most notably NSW. List of states by recent rates of solar installation from largest to smallest in order from largest:

Queensland
Victoria
SA
NSW
WA
ACT
Tasmania

In terms of the total installed base, that is the cumulative total of installations, it's:

Queensland
Victoria
NSW
SA
WA
ACT
Tasmania

Much of that's easily explainable by population and climate, it's the expected result that Tasmania's down the bottom for example, but the real standout is the relative lack of interest in NSW. It's smaller than SA in terms of 2023 installation rates, and that figure is absolute not per capita to be clear, and it's not far ahead of SA in terms of total to date and again that figure is absolute not per capita. So there's clearly less interest in NSW.

In terms of the trend:

Total = down. Installation rate peaked in 2020.

NSW, ACT = peaked in 2019

WA, SA, Tasmania = peaked 2020

Victoria, Queensland = peaked 2021

In all states the 2023 installation rate was lower than the 2022 rate. In Tasmania the difference was minor in % terms, in other states a more significant decline occurred.

In all states except SA, Tas and ACT there's been a decline each year since the peak. These three all saw a small increase in 2022 compared to 2021. Noting they're the smallest population states that may simply be natural volatility due to consumer interest, weather, availability of workers for installations, etc.

2023 rate as a % of the peak year:

Tasmania = 73%
Queensland = 72%
Victoria = 69%
ACT = 57%
SA = 49%
WA = 35%
NSW = 29%

So it's down in all states but again NSW stands out with the greatest decline from the peak.

View attachment 171313

My own view is that it'll ultimately end up with around 50% of households installing solar with a bias toward the smaller states and regional areas being more likely to install it.

Now for cumulative installations per capita. Figure is VA per person. In layman's terms VA isn't quite the same thing as Watts but it's near enough, you could take it as being a figure in Watts and be close enough.

SA = 1342
Queensland = 1024
WA = 845
ACT = 833
Victoria = 654
Tasmania = 581
NSW = 344

With the exception of Tas where other factors provide a rational explanation for less interest in solar*, overall it does seem the big two cities are less keen. Sydney especially isn't keen, a pattern that's pretty consistent with all this.

*Solar certainly does work in Tas in a technical sense but the lower annual yield, combined with typical household electricity use being low during summer when production peaks, diminishes the economics considerably. Unlike states where there's a high correlation between the sun shining and high electricity use for air-conditioning during summer.

Any correlation between the feed in tarrifs vs take-up rate over different States?

 

[sptrawler]

Staggering' rise of rooftop solar to put all other power generation in the shade, report finds​

In coming decades, solar cells on Australian rooftops could provide more energy than we need, a report shows. But there is a catch

The capacity of rooftop solar in Australia will eclipse the country's entire electricity demand in coming decades, according to a report that charts the technology's rise.

www.abc.net.au

At last they have noticed the elephant in the room, that we have been talking about for the last 4 years. Lol

https://www.news.com.au/technology/battery-storage-needed-to-make-solar-power-effective-senate-committee-told/news-story/5bd8f8a38d7ff2cf2cb3aaace658613d

 

[SirRumpole]

Potential sale of hydrogen by SA government to Whyalla steelworks.

SA government signs hydrogen deal with Whyalla steelworks in move away from coal

The South Australian government has signed an agreement to sell hydrogen to a company that owns the Whyalla steelworks in the state's Upper Spencer Gulf.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

Potential sale of hydrogen by SA government to Whyalla steelworks.

That's always been the reason for Whyalla being the location of the hydrogen project.

If it wasn't for that, metropolitan Adelaide in the vicinity of outer harbour would make far more sense in every other way. But the steelworks needs hydrogen so there's an advantage in locating it there.