Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The future of energy generation and storage

Technical issues can be overcome and as smurf says, it will be a mix of every available source of supply, there is no other option we can't function without electricity.

So when the coal is stopped something will have to be there to fill the void, what it is remains to be seen, but you can guarantee something will be making the power.
I disagree, and believe the populace will be forced to reduce consumption drastically by regulation and cost, while the businesses will just close until the population revolts..but this will not happen here.
I invite you to look at the raw power(kJ) required to move a semi between our capital cities , multiply that by the expected fleet by then(immigration full speed to obey the wef) and guesstimate the solar and wind farms required.
The dimlights in power are not just planning the replacement of the current grid capacity but adding EVs...
Even if hydrogen is used, you need power to split it, basically as much to split as produced back when recombine.. and either you split it in the outback blue skies then move it back physically or split it near consumption but then need power there..
There is no easy solution and we deliberately force ourself into that game.Why commit suicide?
 
I disagree, and believe the populace will be forced to reduce consumption drastically by regulation and cost, while the businesses will just close until the population revolts..but this will not happen here.
I invite you to look at the raw power(kJ) required to move a semi between our capital cities , multiply that by the expected fleet by then(immigration full speed to obey the wef) and guesstimate the solar and wind farms required.
The dimlights in power are not just planning the replacement of the current grid capacity but adding EVs...
Even if hydrogen is used, you need power to split it, basically as much to split as produced back when recombine.. and either you split it in the outback blue skies then move it back physically or split it near consumption but then need power there..
There is no easy solution and we deliberately force ourself into that game.Why commit suicide?
I gave my thoughts on that a long time ago, we will see if I'm right. ;)
 
I disagree, and believe the populace will be forced to reduce consumption drastically by regulation and cost, while the businesses will just close until the population revolts..
Suffice to say I do have a definite concern that electricity ends up going the way of housing. Rationed by price to the point you can see who's rich just by looking for lights on at night.

Hopefully not but I do see it as a risk. :2twocents
 
Suffice to say I do have a definite concern that electricity ends up going the way of housing. Rationed by price to the point you can see who's rich just by looking for lights on at night.

Hopefully not but I do see it as a risk. :2twocents

I fear that if our cars are electrified we just can't build the VRE resources needed to supply that demand.

We may be forced to nuclear like it or not and regardless of cost.
 
he devil with H2 is storage, leaky as hell, so the longer you store it , the less remains in the tank and the more leaks thru the pipes and seals.
I understand the problem but I'll reserve judgement until the Whyalla project is built (or if it fails to proceed on technical grounds).

Financially it's an SA government project, government directly as distinct from a state owned corporation, with the engineering side being outsourced to Atco, BOC Linde and Epic Energy who between them think they can do it.

If successful, there'll be enough hydrogen stored to enable 14 days operation of the power station (200MW) at constant full capacity which makes it suitable for deep firming. Noting that the hydrogen storage itself is a relatively minor portion of the total cost such that increasing the storage duration would be relatively straightforward (and the site has plenty of unused land around it to facilitate expansion).

Worst case if it fails then the steelworks needs hydrogen anyway so it won't be a total loss. That's the actual reason for putting it there - it'll intentionally lose some hydrogen but that'll be for use in the nearby steelworks. Plus the gas turbines could be converted back to conventional fuel for use.

Time will tell with this one. Electrically it's straightforward, any issues will be with the hydrogen itself.

FWIW the hydrogen electrolyser operating on a small scale adding hydrogen to a limited portion of the natural gas network, blended at 5% hydrogen with 95% natural gas, has averaged around 70% efficiency and has a ramp rate exceeding 10% per second, so it can work fairly well with intermittent generation (noting it's simply a load on the grid and is not directly linked to any specific supply source). Output gas is used mostly by households in a limited area and feedback has been good, it's worked as intended with their existing gas appliances.

Only real problem was operation of the equipment at times of very low gas demand and ensuring the 5% blend remained accurate, though that was really just a consequence of only having 700 homes connected to it. A purely residential load so early hours of the morning in summer there's stuff all use of gas = it was problematic to run the blending at such a low volume. The solution there being simply to expand the area - across a larger area the minimum gas demand will be high enough to make it workable. :2twocents
 
I understand the problem but I'll reserve judgement until the Whyalla project is built (or if it fails to proceed on technical grounds).

Financially it's an SA government project, government directly as distinct from a state owned corporation, with the engineering side being outsourced to Atco, BOC Linde and Epic Energy who between them think they can do it.

If successful, there'll be enough hydrogen stored to enable 14 days operation of the power station (200MW) at constant full capacity which makes it suitable for deep firming. Noting that the hydrogen storage itself is a relatively minor portion of the total cost such that increasing the storage duration would be relatively straightforward (and the site has plenty of unused land around it to facilitate expansion).

Worst case if it fails then the steelworks needs hydrogen anyway so it won't be a total loss. That's the actual reason for putting it there - it'll intentionally lose some hydrogen but that'll be for use in the nearby steelworks. Plus the gas turbines could be converted back to conventional fuel for use.

Time will tell with this one. Electrically it's straightforward, any issues will be with the hydrogen itself.

FWIW the hydrogen electrolyser operating on a small scale adding hydrogen to a limited portion of the natural gas network, blended at 5% hydrogen with 95% natural gas, has averaged around 70% efficiency and has a ramp rate exceeding 10% per second, so it can work fairly well with intermittent generation (noting it's simply a load on the grid and is not directly linked to any specific supply source). Output gas is used mostly by households in a limited area and feedback has been good, it's worked as intended with their existing gas appliances.

Only real problem was operation of the equipment at times of very low gas demand and ensuring the 5% blend remained accurate, though that was really just a consequence of only having 700 homes connected to it. A purely residential load so early hours of the morning in summer there's stuff all use of gas = it was problematic to run the blending at such a low volume. The solution there being simply to expand the area - across a larger area the minimum gas demand will be high enough to make it workable. :2twocents
eden Energy (EDE) has been developing a product called Hythane, a mix of natural gas and hydrogen at a 3 to 5% mixture since around 2005. It also devloped a a device called optiblend that allowed diesel engines to run on hythane with very little changes to the fuel feed setup.
They have marketed these products in India for some years, particularly in hythane powered buses,
Mick
 
I do have a Tesla battery so I could turn off the mains and see what happens with the inverters, I will wait for some sunshine so it will be obvious if they are working or not

Thanks for the details, much appreciated

Further to this post I have done some digging on Tesla and I found this.............

How Powerwall Provides Backup Power​

When a utility power outage does occur, your Powerwall instantly disconnects from the grid and restores backup power to your home in a fraction of a second, over one hundred times faster than typical standby generators. This means your appliances keep running without interruption, and there’s no need to reset your clocks. You may not even notice when an outage occurs. Learn more about what Powerwall backs up.

If you have solar, your Powerwall can recharge from your solar system to run your home from solar and Powerwall even when the grid is down. A traditional solar system without a Powerwall does not function during a grid outage.

If more solar energy is produced than can be used or stored during an outage, Powerwall will turn off the solar system and turn it back on when the energy can be used again.


So in theory, they must island Yes???
 
I understand the problem but I'll reserve judgement until the Whyalla project is built (or if it fails to proceed on technical grounds).

Financially it's an SA government project, government directly as distinct from a state owned corporation, with the engineering side being outsourced to Atco, BOC Linde and Epic Energy who between them think they can do it.

If successful, there'll be enough hydrogen stored to enable 14 days operation of the power station (200MW) at constant full capacity which makes it suitable for deep firming. Noting that the hydrogen storage itself is a relatively minor portion of the total cost such that increasing the storage duration would be relatively straightforward (and the site has plenty of unused land around it to facilitate expansion).

Worst case if it fails then the steelworks needs hydrogen anyway so it won't be a total loss. That's the actual reason for putting it there - it'll intentionally lose some hydrogen but that'll be for use in the nearby steelworks. Plus the gas turbines could be converted back to conventional fuel for use.

Time will tell with this one. Electrically it's straightforward, any issues will be with the hydrogen itself.

FWIW the hydrogen electrolyser operating on a small scale adding hydrogen to a limited portion of the natural gas network, blended at 5% hydrogen with 95% natural gas, has averaged around 70% efficiency and has a ramp rate exceeding 10% per second, so it can work fairly well with intermittent generation (noting it's simply a load on the grid and is not directly linked to any specific supply source). Output gas is used mostly by households in a limited area and feedback has been good, it's worked as intended with their existing gas appliances.

Only real problem was operation of the equipment at times of very low gas demand and ensuring the 5% blend remained accurate, though that was really just a consequence of only having 700 homes connected to it. A purely residential load so early hours of the morning in summer there's stuff all use of gas = it was problematic to run the blending at such a low volume. The solution there being simply to expand the area - across a larger area the minimum gas demand will be high enough to make it workable. :2twocents
Will be interesting: does the H2 bind in a way with the natural gas?
Maybe?
If not, there is a huge chance that by the time the mix reaches a gas cooker in a residential area, the 5% of H2 will just have leaked and the burner will be 100% natural gas....with great burning characteristics.....
Result of the experiment: the H2 + Nat gas mix is as good as the pure nat. gas....the experiment is a success. We can proceed LOL
Time will tell..
 
does the H2 bind in a way with the natural gas?
Some pretty extensive testing has been done including inspection of consumer appliances, analysing the gas in the pipe at consumer premises, etc.

At a technical level the basic conclusion was that the gas does stay mixed in the distribution network under real world operating conditions. A mix of up to 5% going in, will result in a mix of up to 5% at the appliance.

Further to that, it was concluded that in practice up to 13% is doable using existing consumer appliances without modification and without posing a safety issue.

The thought's now around in regard to doing 10% more widely.

The basic logic is that adding the hydrogen electrolyser load would increase electricity consumption, thus providing a load for increased wind and solar. But since the hydrogen is storable, and it's not critical to constantly add it to gas anyway, that load can simply be switched off if electricity supply becomes tight (eg calm weather in winter).

It's another thing that's by no means a comprehensive solution but it's a piece of the puzzle, it could do a bit of it. :2twocents
 
Some pretty extensive testing has been done including inspection of consumer appliances, analysing the gas in the pipe at consumer premises, etc.

At a technical level the basic conclusion was that the gas does stay mixed in the distribution network under real world operating conditions. A mix of up to 5% going in, will result in a mix of up to 5% at the appliance.

Further to that, it was concluded that in practice up to 13% is doable using existing consumer appliances without modification and without posing a safety issue.

The thought's now around in regard to doing 10% more widely.

The basic logic is that adding the hydrogen electrolyser load would increase electricity consumption, thus providing a load for increased wind and solar. But since the hydrogen is storable, and it's not critical to constantly add it to gas anyway, that load can simply be switched off if electricity supply becomes tight (eg calm weather in winter).

It's another thing that's by no means a comprehensive solution but it's a piece of the puzzle, it could do a bit of it. :2twocents
If indeed the H2 stays,it is a great way to avoid waste or the heresy (financial and ecological) of batteries on the grid
 
If indeed the H2 stays,it is a great way to avoid waste or the heresy (financial and ecological) of batteries on the grid
Note that I still can not comprehend how the H2 part is not leaking everywhere unless it binds to carbon in a way and if this technology develops, will be waiting for the headlines in 10 years:
Exclusive, new study reveal half of produced H2 in new project leaks in the environment and caused xxx deaths in the last 10 years.
Last bit similar to other dubious claims we seen in the ABC daily..
I will wait.does not sort the food problem, a bit like bio diesel
 
@SirRumpole how long have we been saying the issue will be trying to keep the coal generators on, getting them to shutdown is the easy bit, meanwhile those driving the bus are asleep at the wheel.
This whole transition to 2030 is becoming a mess, it really needs a plan and soon IMO.
Ideology running the show as usual.


Victoria’s energy security will remain dependent on one of the least reliable generators on the east-coast grid for another decade.

Energy analysts are warning that a heavy reliance on the largest remaining coal-fired power plant – Loy Yang A – has left the state increasingly vulnerable to blackouts caused by unexpected outages.

And Victorian taxpayers could be forced to foot the bill if the 40-year-old Latrobe Valley plant, which supplies almost one-third of electricity statewide, runs into financial strife before its anticipated closure in 2035.

But AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman warned on Tuesday that Victoria’s remaining three coal-fired generators were reaching the end of their lives, requiring rapid investment in cheaper renewable energy, along with the transmission lines needed to shore up the grid.

“Our coal-fired power stations are getting old,” he told ABC radio. “They are retiring and we need the renewable generation and the transmission to connect it.”

According to the AEMO, outages at Loy Yang A resulted in the loss of 312 megawatts of energy during the final three months of last year, down from 457 megawatts during the same three months of 2022.

A 2019 report by progressive think-tank The Australia Institute found that Loy Yang A suffered more outages than any other power plant in the National Energy Market over the 18 months to June 2019, followed closely by nearby Yallourn.

The problem is, the state government cannot afford to let Loy Yang A close prematurely. Even after factoring in the slew of existing and committed energy projects in the pipeline, AEMO modelling has suggested Victoria could face power reliability gaps as early as 2024, with more serious breaches possible from 2028 onwards.

Worries about the vulnerability of the grid prompted a secretive agreement between the state government and Loy Yang A’s owner, energy-giant AGL, reached in August last year.
Under the deal, AGL provided a guarantee that Loy Yang A would be available to supply the grid with a steady pulse of energy for another 12 years. But in return, Victoria agreed to shoulder an undisclosed chunk of the financial risk if the business encounters problems before 2035, including the possibility that cheaper renewable energy renders the ageing plant financially unviable.
The binding agreement effectively means AGL and Victoria must collaborate to guarantee the “orderly closure” of Loy Yang A by June 30, 2035. That follows the announcement by AGL in September 2022 that it was bringing forward the closure date of Loy Yang A by a decade.

Grid expert Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance, said that when you had 30 per cent of Victoria’s power generation centred on a single, ageing facility, “you have a real concentration of risk”.
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“The idea that Loy Yang A is going to be operational 10 years from now is really remote,” Buckley said. “The engineers say it has a 40-year life asset. Forty years is next year, so any year beyond 2025 is a bonus year.
“So we have critical point reliance on something that already next year reaches its end of useful life and we’re banking on it being held down for another decade. It’s already unreliable.”
Victoria Energy Policy Centre director Bruce Mountain said the condition of Victoria’s remaining coal-fired generators was not well known, including Loy Yang A, the youngest of the three. This, he suggested, made it difficult to assess whether it could reliably operate for another decade.

“Even if the government knew, they wouldn’t tell everyone,” Mountain said.
“When the last major closure occurred in 2017 of Hazelwood, suddenly they felt free to speak about what a complete basket case it was and how it was failing health and safety requirements, but no one speaks publicly about the real condition of these coal generators.”

Mountain said the government had little choice but to back Loy Yang A for another decade.
“Frankly, the build-up of wind and solar is not quick enough, and the storage capacity needed to ensure supplies is not large enough.”

UNSW energy expert Dylan McConnell said the risks facing the grid were increasing as Victoria’s remaining coal-fired generators aged.
But he said the system had been designed to manage those risks using new forms of generation, transmission and storage.
“Ideally, and we have other resources, whether that’s batteries, whether that’s gas ... we have reliable emergency reserve mechanisms, so that if things do go than hopefully the system manages.”
 
@SirRumpole how long have we been saying the issue will be trying to keep the coal generators on, getting them to shutdown is the easy bit, meanwhile those driving the bus are asleep at the wheel.
This whole transition to 2030 is becoming a mess, it really needs a plan and soon IMO.
Ideology running the show as usual.


Victoria’s energy security will remain dependent on one of the least reliable generators on the east-coast grid for another decade.

Energy analysts are warning that a heavy reliance on the largest remaining coal-fired power plant – Loy Yang A – has left the state increasingly vulnerable to blackouts caused by unexpected outages.

And Victorian taxpayers could be forced to foot the bill if the 40-year-old Latrobe Valley plant, which supplies almost one-third of electricity statewide, runs into financial strife before its anticipated closure in 2035.

But AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman warned on Tuesday that Victoria’s remaining three coal-fired generators were reaching the end of their lives, requiring rapid investment in cheaper renewable energy, along with the transmission lines needed to shore up the grid.

“Our coal-fired power stations are getting old,” he told ABC radio. “They are retiring and we need the renewable generation and the transmission to connect it.”

According to the AEMO, outages at Loy Yang A resulted in the loss of 312 megawatts of energy during the final three months of last year, down from 457 megawatts during the same three months of 2022.

A 2019 report by progressive think-tank The Australia Institute found that Loy Yang A suffered more outages than any other power plant in the National Energy Market over the 18 months to June 2019, followed closely by nearby Yallourn.

The problem is, the state government cannot afford to let Loy Yang A close prematurely. Even after factoring in the slew of existing and committed energy projects in the pipeline, AEMO modelling has suggested Victoria could face power reliability gaps as early as 2024, with more serious breaches possible from 2028 onwards.

Worries about the vulnerability of the grid prompted a secretive agreement between the state government and Loy Yang A’s owner, energy-giant AGL, reached in August last year.
Under the deal, AGL provided a guarantee that Loy Yang A would be available to supply the grid with a steady pulse of energy for another 12 years. But in return, Victoria agreed to shoulder an undisclosed chunk of the financial risk if the business encounters problems before 2035, including the possibility that cheaper renewable energy renders the ageing plant financially unviable.
The binding agreement effectively means AGL and Victoria must collaborate to guarantee the “orderly closure” of Loy Yang A by June 30, 2035. That follows the announcement by AGL in September 2022 that it was bringing forward the closure date of Loy Yang A by a decade.

Grid expert Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance, said that when you had 30 per cent of Victoria’s power generation centred on a single, ageing facility, “you have a real concentration of risk”.
Loading
“The idea that Loy Yang A is going to be operational 10 years from now is really remote,” Buckley said. “The engineers say it has a 40-year life asset. Forty years is next year, so any year beyond 2025 is a bonus year.
“So we have critical point reliance on something that already next year reaches its end of useful life and we’re banking on it being held down for another decade. It’s already unreliable.”
Victoria Energy Policy Centre director Bruce Mountain said the condition of Victoria’s remaining coal-fired generators was not well known, including Loy Yang A, the youngest of the three. This, he suggested, made it difficult to assess whether it could reliably operate for another decade.

“Even if the government knew, they wouldn’t tell everyone,” Mountain said.
“When the last major closure occurred in 2017 of Hazelwood, suddenly they felt free to speak about what a complete basket case it was and how it was failing health and safety requirements, but no one speaks publicly about the real condition of these coal generators.”

Mountain said the government had little choice but to back Loy Yang A for another decade.
“Frankly, the build-up of wind and solar is not quick enough, and the storage capacity needed to ensure supplies is not large enough.”

UNSW energy expert Dylan McConnell said the risks facing the grid were increasing as Victoria’s remaining coal-fired generators aged.
But he said the system had been designed to manage those risks using new forms of generation, transmission and storage.
“Ideally, and we have other resources, whether that’s batteries, whether that’s gas ... we have reliable emergency reserve mechanisms, so that if things do go than hopefully the system manages.”

At some point the panic button will have to be hit the as the lights go out and a few state governments plus federal government get reamed then costs will be no object the so called energy market (money machine for opportunists) will get torched (hopefully but likely not) so we can get back to energy being an essential service.

If I was on the East Coast I would be looking at one of those cheap Chinese diesel generators to keep the aircon on and the beer cold.

WA is not that far behind but has a few more options to run to which will run out sooner than later.
 
At some point the panic button will have to be hit the as the lights go out and a few state governments plus federal government get reamed then costs will be no object the so called energy market (money machine for opportunists) will get torched (hopefully but likely not) so we can get back to energy being an essential service.

If I was on the East Coast I would be looking at one of those cheap Chinese diesel generators to keep the aircon on and the beer cold.
Yes you and I know electricity is one of those things everyone takes for granted, but when they haven't got it it, all hell breaks loose.

The first thing I would be doing is get a battery manufacturing facility built, they have just put nickel on the critical list, which will be just throwing good money after bad.
There is no doubt for at least the 20years, batteries are going to be the go to solution, so why not spend $5b on a manufacturing plant, at least then if things go pear shaped with China we can keep the lights on.

This is only going to get harder, that's what the politicians don't seem to understand, if there is a huge collapse building sufficient plant takes time and as the article says and we on here have been saying for years, time is fast running out.

W.A is in just as much $hyte as the East Coast is, Muja is the walking dead, Blue Waters is owned by a U.S money machine and is a pile of junk plus Collie PS is too big to be flexible.

There is a reason we are all getting brand new power meters and it isn't because they look nice, my guess it is so they can be controlled remotely. Also interesting that it appears our CBD looks like has been sectioned off. ;)
 
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Yes you and I know electricity is one of those things everyone takes for granted, but when they haven't got it it, all hell breaks loose.

The first thing I would be doing is get a battery manufacturing facility built, they have just put nickel on the critical list, which will be just throwing good money after bad.
There is no doubt for at least the 20years, batteries are going to be the go to solution, so why not spend $5b on a manufacturing plant, at least then if things go pear shaped with China we can keep the lights on.

This is only going to get harder, that's what the politicians don't seem to understand, if there is a huge collapse building sufficient plant takes time and as the article says and we on here have been saying for years, time is fast running out.

W.A is in just as much $hyte as the East Coast is, Muja is the walking dead, Blue Waters is owned by a U.S money machine and is a pile of junk plus Collie PS is too big to be flexible.

There is a reason we are all getting brand new power meters and it isn't because they look nice, my guess it is so they can be controlled remotely. Also interesting that it appears our CBD looks like has been sectioned off. ;)
But noted the UNSW academic was still saying "hopefully" it will be good with more renewable, so if these and the basils of the country are the ones providing the expertise to our governments, we will be right..if they say so...
CBD sectioned off..so the peons can die with MPs and CEO kept cool and happy...
 
For info. Our oversized domestic battery system today is not fully refilled , endless rain for the last 3 days in seq, and today no AC running, just a few loaves of bread baking...
So a system working fine and battery running between 80 and 100% usually
A couple of days of rain, and we have no wind nor hydro setup in flooded paddocks
Graph with monthly chart for info
Now imagine this is the nation grid..how much battery do you need then to keep the lights on?
Screenshot_20240216-143746_Chrome.jpg
 
Graph with monthly chart for info
Now imagine this is the nation grid..how much battery do you need then to keep the lights on?
The question really isnt how much battery do you need, it is fast becoming the only option, whether it works or not is becoming a moot point. They can't wave a magic wand and hey presto a 2GW power station appears, or a 10 GW pumped hydro plant materialises.
.
Also they are way too invested in the narrative, so we will continue along the path of no return.

Therefore it is dumb not to build a battery manufacturing plant, they need replacing on a regular basis, they are going to be critical infrastructure, we are sourcing them from a country we are wary of.

None of it makes one iota of sense.
It is just mind numbingly dumb not to build the capability to manufacture our own batteries when we have all the materials.

It actually makes me think the whole renewable narrative is just a BS story, because they are playing too dumb a plan to make the intent believable, but that's only my opinion.
 
The question really isnt how much battery do you need, it is fast becoming the only option, whether it works or not is becoming a moot point. They can't wave a magic wand and hey presto a 2GW power station appears, or a 10 GW pumped hydro plant materialises.
.
Also they are way too invested in the narrative, so we will continue along the path of no return.

Therefore it is dumb not to build a battery manufacturing plant, they need replacing on a regular basis, they are going to be critical infrastructure, we are sourcing them from a country we are wary of.

None of it makes one iota of sense.
It is just mind numbingly dumb not to build the capability to manufacture our own batteries when we have all the materials.

It actually makes me think the whole renewable narrative is just a BS story, because they are playing too dumb a plan to make the intent believable, but that's only my opinion.
I think you just had your lightning bolt on "renewables" narrative..better late than never😉.
Now when will our leaders wake up, the nation grid hanging to one coal station that has been pushed to be closed and so not maintained for nearly a decade.
Would not it actually be helpful to have the collapse sooner than later, or will the ABC blame earlier collapse on "too much reliance on coal" and find more solar farms?
China now making a killing selling the picks and shovel of the green rush😊
 
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