The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

Adding to that Tarong North, a 443MW coal unit in Qld, did trip about 15:25 from full load straight to zero but the system worked as it should, the lights stayed on.

For the networks though, I see in some areas the present message is to not expect power for at least two weeks. So quite a major outage there.

 

[qldfrog]

Adding to that Tarong North, a 443MW coal unit in Qld, did trip about 15:25 from full load straight to zero but the system worked as it should, the lights stayed on.

For the networks though, I see in some areas the present message is to not expect power for at least two weeks. So quite a major outage there.

Thanks a lot Mr @Smurf1976 and have a great NY week end.
We have had winds and storms but yesterday was all no air movement, high 30s and moisture to the max in the 70+%.
So it could be that the local network..aka 2 lines or so can not handle all the AC units in every farmlet in the area.
Anyway not a statewide issue ..
And own place does not care much as not on the grid...

 

[Knobby22]

Edit: this was a paper extract, not @sptrawler talking but the message is the same, say a lie long enough and it becomes a truth
About this paper:
Can you please give me one, that is enough, one proper scientist which can categorically states that climate change, if any, is caused (mainly caused if you want) by man made CO2 emissions.
I am not kidding.
A single respected knowledgeable independent scientist!

But any proper independent geophysicist, nobel prize or hard science theorist can count, as long as they know experimental science basis.

It is not new science.

The existence of the greenhouse effect, while not named as such, was proposed as early as 1824 by Joseph Fourier. (Who also invented the awful Fourier equations I had to pass to get through Uni)

The argument and the evidence were further strengthened by Claude Pouillet in 1838. In 1856 Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that the warming effect of the sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide.

You can measure the effect from space. It is uncontroversial. It is old science.

And the fact that China has control of solar is our fault. We invented the technology and let it go overseas.

Some 30 years aqo the University of New South Wales (UNSW) came up with a breakthrough, called the PERC silicon solar cell.

I remember the Professor on TV begging the government to keep the tech here. He ended up living in China.

 

[SirRumpole]

No shortage at the generation bulk supply level so any problems are with distribution networks. I don't have all the details but there's presently at least 145 separate network outages in Qld each of which is resulting in loss of supply to consumers, in most cases a substantial number of properties per fault.

Qld peak demand from all sources was 11,114 MW at 16:00, supply mix at that time being:

Coal = 5098 MW
Solar = 4760 MW
Gas = 667 MW
From NSW = 281 MW
Hydro = 248 MW
Wind = 62 MW
Battery = -1 MW (charging)

Qld peak demand on scheduled generation (everything except wind and solar) occurred at 19:30 with total demand of 9709 MW. Supply mix at this time:

Coal = 6119 MW
Gas = 2290 MW
From NSW = 624 MW
Hydro = 499 MW
Diesel = 98 MW
Wind = 76 MW
Battery = 2 MW
Solar = 2 MW

Notes:

On both occasions NSW was itself a net importer. That is flow from Vic > NSW exceeded flow from NSW > Qld. Net exports were occurring from SA & Vic, whilst net imports were occurring to Qld, NSW and Tas.

Solar figures include estimated production from rooftop solar.

AEMO has applied a number of constraints due to concerns about lightning impact on transmission in Qld. Those constraints aim to minimise the impact if the lines in question do in fact trip - in short it's dispatching generation more from some sources and less from others due to the unusually high risk of transmission failure.

All figures exclude the NWPS (North West Power System) which is a standalone power system separate from the rest of the grid. Most notably this supplies Mt Isa but also the surrounding area. Not to be confused with the North West Interconnected System (NWIS) which is in WA. Long term there's a plan to link the NWPS to the rest of Qld but at present it's electrically separate.

Reliance on coal is evident and depressing, but Rome wasn't built in a day.

 

[qldfrog]

It is not new science.

The existence of the greenhouse effect, while not named as such, was proposed as early as 1824 by Joseph Fourier. (Who also invented the awful Fourier equations I had to pass to get through Uni)

The argument and the evidence were further strengthened by Claude Pouillet in 1838. In 1856 Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that the warming effect of the sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide.

You can measure the effect from space. It is uncontroversial. It is old science.

And the fact that China has control of solar is our fault. We invented the technology and let it go overseas.

Some 30 years aqo the University of New South Wales (UNSW) came up with a breakthrough, called the PERC silicon solar cell.

I remember the Professor on TV begging the government to keep the tech here. He ended up living in China.

But no real scientist worth basically a penny will tell you that the current human emissions of CO2 can affect the climate in any meaningfully way.
But warming, yes increases CO2 emission and atmospheric level.
So very easy to build story.
And there is no measuring from space changing facts..
Like when first eclipse timing was done, the priests ensured their god status
Anyway, you can not root off a belief when ingrained.look at all religions...
This is the status of the current "CO2 creating global warming " scam.
Fully agree on your point about solar.
Just our usual deindustrialisation western fade..no pollution, no CO2,nimby and red/green tape level/taxation
Resulting in no jobs no knowledge and ultimately societal collapse..
Yes we had the choice to develop alternate energy sources but messed up..not surprised

 

[Knobby22]

But no real scientist

Your mind is made up. All I can say is question a bit. Remember, follow the money creating the doubt.

It is old science, it is measurable and the forecasts have been accurate. Obviously as man contributes the greenhouse gases then we have an effect. There is no question that there is a lot more CO2 and methane in tne atmosphere.

We can measure it from space. No real scientist has any doubt.
I will not say any more on the subject.

 

[qldfrog]

Your mind is made up. All I can say is question a bit. Remember, follow the money creating the doubt.

It is old science, it is measurable and the forecasts have been accurate. Obviously as man contributes the greenhouse gases then we have an effect. There is no question that there is a lot more CO2 and methane in tne atmosphere.

We can measure it from space. No real scientist has any doubt.
I will not say any more on the subject.

View attachment 168042

We agree on the increase in the atmosphere and thanks God or us , as it is boosting agricultural production.
But we will continue to disagree as to the relevance of that extra CO2 vs solar cycles, earth wobble or even effects like road surfaces and roof even black roofs or solar panels capturing more of the sun.
And please note that my position came from a believer (aka I trusted blindly what was told) then own study when story became so grossly scientifically absurd.
Please follow the same path, you have some basic scientific background, look at all what is so out of wack with the story told and do your own napkin computations
And I have no doubt CF your own outcome if you seriously analyse this.
We stop there, I agree the scam is going on and we all have to live with it, as we do with religions...
And the effect on the grid is immense
Our coal plants are being closed so what's next..
thanks God , or science that CO2 is not an issue, as our Australian solar and wind farms are overall CO2 positive when coupled with batteries vs fossil fuel /gas plants..the irony
Hard facts and figures on a lifetime of assets
The frog fully solar and lithium batteries powered

 

[sptrawler]

And the fact that China has control of solar is our fault. We invented the technology and let it go overseas.

Some 30 years aqo the University of New South Wales (UNSW) came up with a breakthrough, called the PERC silicon solar cell.

I remember the Professor on TV begging the government to keep the tech here. He ended up living in China.

Very true, interesting how much difference 12 years can make, back in 2011 no one was interested in saving our solar panel manufacturing industry, despite the rhetoric we hear now and the rewriting of history.
Now we are screaming about how we want to be front runners in renewable energy, the narrative meanders and flows with the political and media cycles.
Laughable really.

Nov 2011

UPDATE: Silex Solar Suspends Australian Solar Panel Production

Silex Solar, Australia's only manufacturer of solar panels, has suspended manufacturing operations at its Homebush Bay facility - just months after discontinuing production of its in-house manufactured solar cells.

www.energymatters.com.au

Silex Solar, Australia’s only manufacturer of solar panels, has suspended manufacturing operations at its Homebush Bay facility – just months after discontinuing production of its in-house manufactured solar cells.

An article on the Sydney Morning Herald states Silex’s Sydney Olympic Park facility, previously a BP solar panel manufacturing plant, ceased production operations on Monday and 45 jobs have been lost.

Silex chief executive Michael Goldsworthy said the combination of a global oversupply of panels, the strong Australian dollar, most states slashing feed in tariffs and the Federal government’s reduction of the Solar Credits rebate were the main factors in the decision to suspend manufacturing operations.

According to an Interim Operational Update from Silex Systems : “SilexSolar has decided to suspend all manufacturing operations and place the plant in ‘care and maintenance’ mode until the future direction of the business can be determined. Most of the manufacturing employees have been made redundant, along with several engineering, technical and administrative staff.”


May 2012

Silex Systems closes Homebush solar PV manufacturing plant

Silex says the mothballed plant to be permanently closed because it can no longer compete against cheap Chinese imports.

reneweconomy.com.au

Silex Systems has abandoned plans to revive its solar panel manufacturing plant in Sydney’s Olymic Park, and has announced its immediate closure and decommissioning.

Silex bought the then mothballed plant from BP Solar for $6.5 million in 2009, but ceased production of solar cells in August last year as part of a restructuring. It then mothballed the module manufacturing again in November, but after resuming limited production in February, it has now decided to cut its losses after trading conditions failed to improve.

CEO Michael Goldsworthy blamed the “triple whammy” of cheap Chinese modules flooding the market, the high Australian dollar, and inadequate government support.

 

[SirRumpole]

Interesting program on SBS, Megadams, Fridays 8:30 or On Demand if you have missed it.

 

[Knobby22]

I saw this. Disappointing.
Maybe there is no future for modular nuclear reactors? It appears the costs are too high.

NuScale cancels first-of-a-kind nuclear project as costs surge

The Oregon-based company and the Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems terminated an agreement for six small modular reactors.

www.eenews.net

 

[sptrawler]

I saw this. Disappointing.
Maybe there is no future for modular nuclear reactors? It appears the costs are too high.

NuScale cancels first-of-a-kind nuclear project as costs surge

The Oregon-based company and the Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems terminated an agreement for six small modular reactors.

www.eenews.net

Yes Nuscale is being used by most of the anti nuclear lobby as the pin up poster, at the end of the day if small modular reactors are the only option to the energy issue, money will be the least of the problems.
Small modular reactors are being used in Subs and ships, we still bought the subs, despite the cost.
like I say cost doesn't matter, when options are limited.
You have to remember who is running the narrative ATM.
None of the anti nuclear media is saying much about the subs, I guess that would mean being consistent, which they never are.

 

[Knobby22]

Yes Nuscale is being used by most of the anti nuclear lobby as the pin up poster, at the end of the day if small modular reactors are the only option to the energy issue, money will be the least of the problems.
Small modular reactors are being used in Subs and ships, we still bought the subs, despite the cost.
like I say cost doesn't matter, when options are limited.
You have to remember who is running the narrative ATM.
None of the anti nuclear media is saying much about the subs, I guess that would mean being consistent, which they never are.

It's not about the anti nuclear lobby.
It's the contract being cancelled!

Is the technology feasible? I am hoping there might be another manufacturer in the wings. Is this technology going to happen?

#MoXJO said it is was too expensive. Looking correct. If so, not good.

 

[Smurf1976]

It's not about the anti nuclear lobby.
It's the contract being cancelled!

The contract is the issue but the anti-nuclear lobby have seized upon it.

The old practice of being happy to criticise something you don't like, but suddenly going real quiet the moment something you do like has the same issue.

Politics is a nonsense game.

 

[Smurf1976]

Tarong North, a 443MW coal unit in Qld, did trip about 15:25 from full load straight to zero

Just updating that it has since returned to operation and is running at 100% capacity right now.

A minor hiccup but there's no major ongoing problem there.

 

[qldfrog]

Very true, interesting how much difference 12 years can make, back in 2011 no one was interested in saving our solar panel manufacturing industry, despite the rhetoric we hear now and the rewriting of history.
Now we are screaming about how we want to be front runners in renewable energy, the narrative meanders and flows with the political and media cycles.
Laughable really.

Nov 2011

UPDATE: Silex Solar Suspends Australian Solar Panel Production

Silex Solar, Australia's only manufacturer of solar panels, has suspended manufacturing operations at its Homebush Bay facility - just months after discontinuing production of its in-house manufactured solar cells.

www.energymatters.com.au

Silex Solar, Australia’s only manufacturer of solar panels, has suspended manufacturing operations at its Homebush Bay facility – just months after discontinuing production of its in-house manufactured solar cells.

An article on the Sydney Morning Herald states Silex’s Sydney Olympic Park facility, previously a BP solar panel manufacturing plant, ceased production operations on Monday and 45 jobs have been lost.

Silex chief executive Michael Goldsworthy said the combination of a global oversupply of panels, the strong Australian dollar, most states slashing feed in tariffs and the Federal government’s reduction of the Solar Credits rebate were the main factors in the decision to suspend manufacturing operations.

According to an Interim Operational Update from Silex Systems : “SilexSolar has decided to suspend all manufacturing operations and place the plant in ‘care and maintenance’ mode until the future direction of the business can be determined. Most of the manufacturing employees have been made redundant, along with several engineering, technical and administrative staff.”


May 2012

Silex Systems closes Homebush solar PV manufacturing plant

Silex says the mothballed plant to be permanently closed because it can no longer compete against cheap Chinese imports.

reneweconomy.com.au

Silex Systems has abandoned plans to revive its solar panel manufacturing plant in Sydney’s Olymic Park, and has announced its immediate closure and decommissioning.

Silex bought the then mothballed plant from BP Solar for $6.5 million in 2009, but ceased production of solar cells in August last year as part of a restructuring. It then mothballed the module manufacturing again in November, but after resuming limited production in February, it has now decided to cut its losses after trading conditions failed to improve.

CEO Michael Goldsworthy blamed the “triple whammy” of cheap Chinese modules flooding the market, the high Australian dollar, and inadequate government support.

I feel more like crying than laughting to be truthful...

 

[qldfrog]

It's not about the anti nuclear lobby.
It's the contract being cancelled!

Is the technology feasible? I am hoping there might be another manufacturer in the wings. Is this technology going to happen?

#MoXJO said it is was too expensive. Looking correct. If so, not good.

I mentioned it earlier, my angst with nuclear (uranium based) is that if you include waste management (there is no treatment) it makes no sense $ wise.
It is only there as key countries wanted plutonium for their bombs..that is the whole purpose of the whole chain let's not pretend otherwise

Just think about it: people are wanting to swap CO2 for uranium (and worse) waste for the purposely good of the planet ...
That is in a country where we cry fool at asbestos or silicon dust produced by cutting man made stone
Let me LOL.
Waste could be kind of reduced using surgenerators (unsure english term EPR maybe? which can be fed spent rods) ..but I will never forget my nuclear science professor telling me he had no issue living near a std nuclear plant but would no go anywhere near these concept because of the inherent instability.
And I invite every advocate of civil nuclear (power) to visit La Hague "processing" plant as I did.
If you have children or younger generations you value, it is a no go especially if only to produce electricity.
Probably beneficial on balance for medicine and sciences to have a few reactors .as we do but not to boil a giant kettle
There are solutions like thorium reactors.. and fusion which is "nearly there" ..as it was 30y ago
I do not expect a place like Australia to lead or even follow any of these

 

[farmerge]

I feel more like crying than laughting to be truthful...

As per usual good ideas etc finish away from here. Little to no foresight from the top of the tree.

 

[mullokintyre]

Very true, interesting how much difference 12 years can make, back in 2011 no one was interested in saving our solar panel manufacturing industry, despite the rhetoric we hear now and the rewriting of history.
Now we are screaming about how we want to be front runners in renewable energy, the narrative meanders and flows with the political and media cycles.
Laughable really.

Nov 2011

UPDATE: Silex Solar Suspends Australian Solar Panel Production

Silex Solar, Australia's only manufacturer of solar panels, has suspended manufacturing operations at its Homebush Bay facility - just months after discontinuing production of its in-house manufactured solar cells.

www.energymatters.com.au

Silex Solar, Australia’s only manufacturer of solar panels, has suspended manufacturing operations at its Homebush Bay facility – just months after discontinuing production of its in-house manufactured solar cells.

An article on the Sydney Morning Herald states Silex’s Sydney Olympic Park facility, previously a BP solar panel manufacturing plant, ceased production operations on Monday and 45 jobs have been lost.

Silex chief executive Michael Goldsworthy said the combination of a global oversupply of panels, the strong Australian dollar, most states slashing feed in tariffs and the Federal government’s reduction of the Solar Credits rebate were the main factors in the decision to suspend manufacturing operations.

According to an Interim Operational Update from Silex Systems : “SilexSolar has decided to suspend all manufacturing operations and place the plant in ‘care and maintenance’ mode until the future direction of the business can be determined. Most of the manufacturing employees have been made redundant, along with several engineering, technical and administrative staff.”


May 2012

Silex Systems closes Homebush solar PV manufacturing plant

Silex says the mothballed plant to be permanently closed because it can no longer compete against cheap Chinese imports.

reneweconomy.com.au

Silex Systems has abandoned plans to revive its solar panel manufacturing plant in Sydney’s Olymic Park, and has announced its immediate closure and decommissioning.

Silex bought the then mothballed plant from BP Solar for $6.5 million in 2009, but ceased production of solar cells in August last year as part of a restructuring. It then mothballed the module manufacturing again in November, but after resuming limited production in February, it has now decided to cut its losses after trading conditions failed to improve.

CEO Michael Goldsworthy blamed the “triple whammy” of cheap Chinese modules flooding the market, the high Australian dollar, and inadequate government support.

I lost a good chunk of money on SLX.
I thought I was getting in on the ground floor.
Expensive lesson.
mick

 

[farmerge]

I lost a good chunk of money on SLX.
I thought I was getting in on the ground floor.
Expensive lesson.
mick

Ouch

 

[sptrawler]

It's not about the anti nuclear lobby.
It's the contract being cancelled!

Is the technology feasible? I am hoping there might be another manufacturer in the wings. Is this technology going to happen?

#MoXJO said it is was too expensive. Looking correct. If so, not good.

What I was saying is, the technology is already there and in use, what isn't there is the ability to build them in modular form and produce power with a cost benefit yet.
But wasn't that also the case for renewables 15 years ago, as the need increases and technology improves usually costs reduce, or is that only the case in socially acceptable technologies..
No doubt China or Japan will continue developing the concept and maybe the West will end up buying from them, as is usually the case.
There are many technologies, that started out from a very shaky beginning, to a viable industry. Ask Elon Musk, in reality the E.V didn't and on a lot of metrics still doesn't stack up, it is still a lot dearer than the equivalent ICE car, doesn't travel as far on the same volume of fuel and can't tow as well.
Maybe SMR's never will stack up, but IMO the story is far from being over and I wouldn't be calling an end to it yet.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nuscale-ceo-defends-modular-nuclear-plants-after-project-cancellation-2023-11-14/

In 2020, the Department of Energy approved $1.35 billion over 10 years for the plant, known as the Carbon Free Power Project, subject to congressional appropriations. The department has provided NuScale and others about $600 million since 2014 to support commercialization of small reactor technologies.


Hopkins said NuScale projects in Romania and South Korea continue to develop.

He also said a plan with service provider Standard Power to develop two gigawatts of nuclear power intended for data centers in Pennsylvania and Ohio was on track. A contract for that project would be completed "if not this week, next," Hopkins said.
NuScale was the first U.S. company to secure regulatory approval for its design of a small, modular reactor. Backers say such projects can be built in remote locations and can power heavy industries with emissions that have been traditionally difficult to abate.

NuScale said in January the target price for power from the plant jumped 53% to $89 per megawatt hour, raising concerns about customers' willingness to pay.


Critics say small, modular reactors and other advanced reactor designs are too expensive to succeed.

"The termination of NuScale's contract signals the broader challenges of developing nuclear energy in the United States," said Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "Placing excessive reliance on untested technologies without adequate consideration of economic viability, practicality, and safety concerns is irresponsible and clearly won’t work."