The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

comments suggest the issue is due to the fact that when the wind does not blow, the company is forced to buy electricity on the open market, which has cost it a lot more than it was receiving in the contract with Norwegian Hydro.
The same commenter suggested that the company is 75% owned by CGN, China General Nuclear.
Mick

That would make sense, buying the power on the open market, would always cost the most.
Sounds like another taxpayer subsidy will be required.

 

[Smurf1976]

Some possible excitement this week in Qld and NSW.

Current forecast for Thursday 16 November. All figures are in MW.

NSW:
Scheduled Capacity = 7332
Scheduled Demand = 8488

Queensland:
Scheduled Capacity = 9348
Scheduled Demand = 8807

So there's a definite reliance on transmission Victoria > NSW and not a lot of room for anything to go wrong without the lights going out. It'll probably make it through but it's uncomfortably close and could plausibly go wrong.

Underlying cause, the ultimate one, is a lack of sufficient capacity and that some of what we do have is getting old and tired.

At the more detailed level, there's some planned outages for maintenance (it has to be done sometime.....) and there's also two substantial generating units currently limping along with significant faults that'll require a shutdown to rectify. No comment as to which they are or what company owns them but it's major plant not something trivial.

Plus of course Callide C power station is still being put back together. Present return to service dates are projected at:

Unit C3 (the one with the cooling tower structural collapse) commencing 7 January 2024, full operation by 18 February 2024.

Unit C4 (the one with the catastrophic mechanical failure) commencing 19 May 2024, full operation 6 July 2024.

Between the commencement and completion dates there should be some generation but not full capacity and not necessarily continuously.

 

[SirRumpole]

Some possible excitement this week in Qld and NSW.

Current forecast for Thursday 16 November. All figures are in MW.

NSW:
Scheduled Capacity = 7332
Scheduled Demand = 8488

Queensland:
Scheduled Capacity = 9348
Scheduled Demand = 8807

So there's a definite reliance on transmission Victoria > NSW and not a lot of room for anything to go wrong without the lights going out. It'll probably make it through but it's uncomfortably close and could plausibly go wrong.

Underlying cause, the ultimate one, is a lack of sufficient capacity and that some of what we do have is getting old and tired.

At the more detailed level, there's some planned outages for maintenance (it has to be done sometime.....) and there's also two substantial generating units currently limping along with significant faults that'll require a shutdown to rectify. No comment as to which they are or what company owns them but it's major plant not something trivial.

Plus of course Callide C power station is still being put back together. Present return to service dates are projected at:

Unit C3 (the one with the cooling tower structural collapse) commencing 7 January 2024, full operation by 18 February 2024.

Unit C4 (the one with the catastrophic mechanical failure) commencing 19 May 2024, full operation 6 July 2024.

Between the commencement and completion dates there should be some generation but not full capacity and not necessarily continuously.

I wonder if we could get an undersea transmission line from New Zealand ?

 

[sptrawler]

Just had a thought on another thread, might be completely ridiculous, but regarding Aussi super going in hard, to stop the loonies taking over Origin Energy.

Just had a left field thought, could someone be going in to bat for the Govt? To stop a rogue 'green' raider getting control and the ultimate say over whether a coal generator stays on, or stays off?

Now that would be an interesting situation, when you have a Govt wanting coal shut down and have set emission targets and someone who owns the biggest coal generator agrees and says they are going to shut it down no ifs or buts.

OMG what a mess.

Just my thoughts and just thinking out loud, as I may want to buy, but as @IFocus would say ye Nah.

 

[mullokintyre]

France seems to be going in exactly the opposite direction to Germany and others in the plans for a future with significantly less fossil fuels.
From Evil Murdoch press

Joël Barre has a long title – chief executive of France’s Direction générale de l’Armement (DGA) – but the locals know him as Monsieur Nuclear, the man overseeing the construction of six new reactors designed to stave off that nation’s power crisis.
Barre’s high profile is testament to France’s widespread re-embrace of nuclear power as a “green” energy source that can help the country avoid some of the massive shortages experienced by other European countries.

The six new advanced European Pressure Reactor 2s (EPR2), which will come online from 2035, will each generate a power output of 1670 MWe and have an operating life of at least 60 years. Monsieur Nuclear says they will avoid a “cliff edge” when other reactors come to the end of their lives in the next 20 to 30 years.
Power has arguably become the biggest political and economic issue in Europe since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in early 2022, up-ending the supply certainty of Nord Stream natural gas from Vyborg and Ust-Luga in northwest Russia. It immediately led to a chilling, literally, across Europe. Leaders urgently looked to ways to stabilise the upheaval on both industry and voters, used to staving off the cold with widespread heating.

Germany and Italy, both big importers of Russian gas, abandoned net-zero ambitions and temporarily restarted coal-fired power stations, increased imports of energy from neighbours, and ramped up prices.

German leader Olaf Scholz, who heads a three-way coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens, even resisted opposition calls and stuck to a strict timetable of decommissioning the country’s final three nuclear plants in April of this year.

While Germany abolished nuclear – on the basis of safety fears exacerbated by the Fukushima disaster in 2011 – the pragmatic French embraced nuclear’s low-carbon impact and doubled down on the technology.

President Emmanuel Macron even reversed a decades-long political decision to cut France’s reliance on nuclear fuel. Laws introduced in 2014 to limit output of nuclear energy to only generate 50 per cent of its electricity needs were abandoned. France, a country with very few fossil-fuel resources, has reverted back to the very reason it introduced nuclear in the post-World War II period: to have control over its energy supplies.

Macron announced a “nuclear renaissance” where France would build the six new nuclear reactors and consider another eight. It already has 56 reactors.

“Key to producing this electricity in the most carbon-free, safest and most sovereign way is precisely to have a plural strategy ... to develop both renewable and nuclear energies,” Macron said when announcing the new policy in 2022. “We have no other choice but to bet on these two pillars at the same time. It is the most relevant choice from an ecological point of view and the most expedient from an economic point of view, and finally the least costly from a financial point of view.”

Time will tell whether the French approach is better or worse than that of Germany et al.
But the important thing is they have a workable plan, that will be able to provide a security of supply as well as reduce the reliance on fossil fuels.

Mick

 

[sptrawler]

France seems to be going in exactly the opposite direction to Germany and others in the plans for a future with significantly less fossil fuels.
From Evil Murdoch press

Time will tell whether the French approach is better or worse than that of Germany et al.
But the important thing is they have a workable plan, that will be able to provide a security of supply as well as reduce the reliance on fossil fuels.

Mick

Exporting power could well become a major source of income for France, as you say it will be interesting to watch how it all unfolds.

 

[mullokintyre]

Exporting power could well become a major source of income for France, as you say it will be interesting to watch how it all unfolds.

Not sure if there is as much interconnection as we might think.
This Report , states

The EU has set an interconnection target of at least 15% by 2030 to encourage EU countries to interconnect their installed electricity production capacity. This means that each country should have in place electricity cables that allow at least 15% of the electricity produced on its territory to be transported across its borders to neighbouring countries.

In 2021, 16 countries reported being on track to reach that target by 2030, or have already reached the target, but more interconnections are needed in some regions.

The previous interconnection target of 10% by 2020 stemmed from a call of the European Council in October 2014, but was raised to 15% by 2030 following the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union (2018/1999).

The 15% cross-border capacity ratio corresponds to the import capacity over EU countries' installed generation capacity. The 15% for 2030 interconnection target has been complemented by a number of urgency indicators because of the significant increase of installed capacity in the EU (mostly due to new variable wind and solar capacities with much lower load factors compared to other generation sources), while new interconnection capacities have not increased in the same proportions. Consequently, the analysis of the level of interconnectivity should also consider, besides the 15% interconnection target, indicators of the urgency of action based on price differential in the wholesale market and nominal transmission capacity of interconnectors in relation to peak load and to installed renewable generation capacity. The Regulation also stipulates that each new interconnector is subject to a socioeconomic and environmental cost-benefit analysis and implemented only if the potential benefits outweigh the costs.

France itself according to this 2022 Report does not have a lot of interconnection capacity.
Given past French insouciance, I suspect they would prefer to keep the p[pwer to themselves.

examples of With 17.4 GW of export and 12.5 GW of import capacity, France has an interconnection rate of 11.4%, above the 2020 European target of 10% (measured as electricity import capacity over installed generation capacity). This is above the European interconnection target of 10% by 2020 (measured as electricity import capacity over installed generation capacity).

Mick

 

[SirRumpole]

Given past French insouciance, I suspect they would prefer to keep the p[pwer to themselves.

The lines of national security are getting pretty blurred.

Politicians who are responsible to their electorates might get worried when the population asks why electricity they generate is going to someone else.

Maybe Britain got out in time ?

 

[Smurf1976]

There are scams and then there is this:



As for that turbine, well it has a vague resemblance to a francis turbine (hydro) but only vaguely....

Then there's this one:



No way they're running all those lights and a welder with some relatively easy pedalling.

 

[sptrawler]

At last someone in politics has stumbled across common sense, good on South Australia for adopting a pragmatic approach.

South Australia passes legislation to fast-track hydrogen projects

To invite greater investment in hydrogen and renewable energy projects, South Australia Government has streamlined the process.

www.drive.com.au

The Hydrogen and Renewable Energy Act 2023 provides access to capital investment – estimated at $21 billion – as well as allowing developers and investors to compete for land in the state which can be used for wind or solar projects.
However, it's understood the legislation is technology agnostic when it comes to how the hydrogen is produced – meaning it could pave the way for so-called 'brown hydrogen' projects created from coal, or 'blue hydrogen' created from methane gas.

Minister for Primary Industries and Regional Development Clare Scriven defended the Act, arguing "all types of hydrogen generation will contribute to building the necessary infrastructure required in the transition to a future clean hydrogen industry," according to InnovationAus.com.
"Allowing all hydrogen types encourages the industry to develop and test economically feasible technologies, which will ultimately bring down the cost of hydrogen production," she added.
The legislation streamlines the process for those seeking to invest in large-scale hydrogen and renewable energy projects, by creating a single regulatory process for environmental impacts, native title rights, and land access.

 

[Belli]

Only a small contribution buy worthy nonetheless. I assume they have done the numbers on whether the construction costs and concrete, etc are included in any net savings calculations.

Landfill methane will power 10,800 ACT homes | Canberra Daily

Harmful methane gas at the Mugga Lane landfill will be converted into reliable renewable energy: 50,000 Megawatt hours’ worth.

canberradaily.com.au

 

[SirRumpole]

Why are power prices so high ?

Network super profits say some.

Australians cop high electricity bills as networks make excess profit

Australians are paying too much for electricity because power networks are booking excess profits, according to new analysis.

www.thenewdaily.com.au

 

[Country Lad]

Why are power prices so high ?

Network super profits say some.

Australians cop high electricity bills as networks make excess profit

Australians are paying too much for electricity because power networks are booking excess profits, according to new analysis.

www.thenewdaily.com.au

Oxymoron: a figure of speech in which apparently contradictory terms appear in conjunction

The report states:
"Australia’s energy networks are operated by a series of companies – large ones include, for example, Ausgrid, Energex and Jemena."
and
“Government action is needed to make power bills fairer and more affordable,” Orme said.

A closer look at that shows that Energex is actually owned by the Qld government
Ausgrid was owned by NSW government and sold some off but still holding 49.6%
Jemena was owned by Qld & SA governments and in various iterations were sold to Chinese and Singaporean interests.

 

[farmerge]

Oxymoron: a figure of speech in which apparently contradictory terms appear in conjunction

The report states:
"Australia’s energy networks are operated by a series of companies – large ones include, for example, Ausgrid, Energex and Jemena."
and
“Government action is needed to make power bills fairer and more affordable,” Orme said.

A closer look at that shows that Energex is actually owned by the Qld government
Ausgrid was owned by NSW government and sold some off but still holding 49.6%
Jemena was owned by Qld & SA governments and in various iterations were sold to Chinese and Singaporean interests.

Well, well, well. Is there a rotting rat stuck in these partially owned companies than they don't want the peasants to know about.

 

[sptrawler]

Well it looks like the ideology has finally caught up with the realty.

Federal Labor commissions secret review into green energy target as pressure mounts over feasibility, sources reveal

With the clock ticking on efforts to more than double Australia's renewable energy share by 2030, sources tell the ABC that the government commissioned a secret review of its renewable energy target to see whether it could hit the ambitious goal.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

Even 'Aunty' ABC is onto it, now comes the real test, how much are electricity prices going to come down? As @Smurf1976 and myself said several years ago, if they want to actually do this, it will have to be a $hit or bust effort, the slow climb over the hump wont work it will lead to more unscheduled problems with cycling old plant.
The only way ahead IMO is to throw in heaps more renewables and storage than is required, settle it down and then retire your old generators, that means a lot of money a lot of materials and a lot of manpower, where all that is going to come from before 2030 was always going to be a problem.
Legislation was the last thing that was needed, a good plan, a good build up and a great execution of the plan is what was needed. Unfortunately Canberra isn't famous for that.

The hints have been coming for a while, but now it's official: Australia isn't on track to meet its climate targets

Climate targets were legislated in one of the first acts of the newly elected Albanese government. It was a moment hailed as symbolising the sea-change election result, and now we know Australia is not on track to meet them, writes David Speers.

www.abc.net.au

From the article: The interesting bit IMO, more inflation needed?

Groups including the ACTU and Smart Energy Council have urged the government to set up a $100 billion fund — along the lines of the Biden administration's IRA — to attract investment into "green manufacturing". This hasn't been completely ruled out, but stumping up such a huge sum to join the global arms race on green subsidies doesn't appear to be the government's favoured option.

Instead, Chris Bowen has chosen another route to put the 82 per cent renewables target back on track — a route involving more taxpayer subsidies. How much more, conveniently, will remain confidential.

 

[SirRumpole]

Andrew Forrest's Squadron Energy quietly pulls plans for Port Kembla gas-fired power station​

Andrew Forrest's company quietly pulls plans for $1.3 billion power plant

A company owned by billionaire Andrew Forrest has quietly withdrawn plans to build a gas-fired power station at Port Kembla, but remains committed to building a similar facility in the region.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

Andrew Forrest's Squadron Energy quietly pulls plans for Port Kembla gas-fired power station​

Andrew Forrest's company quietly pulls plans for $1.3 billion power plant

A company owned by billionaire Andrew Forrest has quietly withdrawn plans to build a gas-fired power station at Port Kembla, but remains committed to building a similar facility in the region.

www.abc.net.au

I guess when it all falls on its ar$e as @IFocus would say, well we set the targets we had FA plan, it fell on its ar$e someone else fix it.

Why would anyone invest in gas when the whales are singing, let's be honest it is all looking very, very shaky.
Secret investigations into the brain fart, isn't a good look, it would be getting a lot more airplay, if potato head was running it.
All the balls in the air, seem to be tumbling down at bit earlier than anticipated, should be an interesting next couple of summers especially if Origin is taken over and Erarang is shut down.

Federal Labor commissions secret review into green energy target as pressure mounts over feasibility, sources reveal

With the clock ticking on efforts to more than double Australia's renewable energy share by 2030, sources tell the ABC that the government commissioned a secret review of its renewable energy target to see whether it could hit the ambitious goal.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

the whales are singing

What band are they in?

The Darkness ?

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting article on W.A's problem.

The eye-watering payments being made to big batteries to squash huge solar duck | RenewEconomy

Neoen's huge Collie battery could be paid more than $100 million a year to help squash solar duck curve in world's biggest isolated grid, but state-owned battery will get paid much less.

reneweconomy.com.au