The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

32 c/kwH

That's interesting, so there isn't a huge difference in the cost, it must be the amount of disposable income and outgoings people have, because i haven't heard electricity bills here are causing a huge problem.

 

[SirRumpole]

That's interesting, so there isn't a huge difference in the cost, it must be the amount of disposable income and outgoings people have, because i haven't heard electricity bills here are causing a huge problem.

Sydney is a more expensive place to live generally (not that I live there) so it's just one thing on top of another.

It's the rate of increase that's the issue, 30% in a lot of cases, suspicions of price gouging are naturally aroused.

 

[sptrawler]

Sydney is a more expensive place to live generally (not that I live there) so it's just one thing on top of another.

It's the rate of increase that's the issue, 30% in a lot of cases, suspicions of price gouging are naturally aroused.

My guess is there must be a lot of subsidising going on that isn't public knowledge yet, I would have thought the cost on the East coast would be far higher than here, the next year or two should be interesting.

 

[SirRumpole]

Mike Cannon-Brooks gets control of SunCable, a project to export solar power to Singapore.

Twiggy Forrest was interested but withdrew over "creative differences".

Billionaire's $30 billion renewables project announces plan for cable plant

SunCable wants to build what it calls the world's largest renewable energy project and has identified Bell Bay in northern Tasmania as the potential site for its advanced cable manufacturing facility.

www.abc.net.au

 

[mullokintyre]

As is so often the case, there are always claims and counterclaims about renewables.
One of my goto sites for technical info on generation, Watt Clarity highlights this.

Mick

 

[Smurf1976]

My guess is there must be a lot of subsidising going on that isn't public knowledge yet, I would have thought the cost on the East coast would be far higher than here, the next year or two should be interesting.

One of the major retailers in SA:

Daily charge = $1.01013

Peak consumption = 52.042c / kWh

Off-peak consumption = 31.394c / kWh

Solar Sponge consumption = 26.114c / kWh

Times:
Off-Peak is 1am - 6am daily
Solar Sponge is 10am - 3pm daily
Peak is all other times

Rest assured there's rates far higher than that around.

 

[Smurf1976]

As is so often the case, there are always claims and counterclaims about renewables.
One of my goto sites for technical info on generation, Watt Clarity highlights this.

Past 12 months to Saturday 4 November 2023:

Queensland = net export 2936 GWh
Victoria = net export = 4616 GWh

NSW = net import 6315 GWh
SA = net import 752 GWh
Tasmania = net import = 485 GWh

Edit: As a bit more detail:

Qld: Import 516 / export 3452
NSW: Import 7456 / export 1141
Vic = import 2582 / export 7198
SA = import 1578 / export 826
Tas = import 1617 / export 1132

Physical connections being:
Qld <> NSW
NSW <> Vic
Vic <> SA
Vic <> Tas

With NSW <> SA presently under construction.

In practice the SA exports are primarily surplus wind / solar generation during the middle of the day or early hours of the morning when consumption is low and wind / solar generation happens to be high. It's generation that couldn't be used within the state basically.

Versus say Tas where exports are in practice almost entirely into peak and other tight supply situations interstate, with imports being at times of low mainland demand and/or high wind / solar generation.

 

[Smurf1976]

As this thread has pointed out ad nauseum, the lack of an actual plan to move seamlessly to renewables, as distinct from a moving feast of "scenarios" has hampered the NEM's functional transition.

Electricity is one of those things where there's a lot of options as to what the plan could be, no single generation technology is of itself indispensable, but as a complex system it's crucial that there actually is a plan of some sort. Otherwise it's sleepwalking to disaster.

For example, tapping into electrical hot water systems and pool pumps (and even EV charging) to prevent solar pv curtailment, rather than the typical approach today whereby consumers take advantage of cheaper nighttime tariffs, isn't just grid smart but also stands to significantly reduce household electricity costs.

Fully agree, for the record my own water heater runs during the middle of the day as an example of that approach, but right now there are major electricity retailers incentivising the exact opposite through their pricing structure.

It's a mess, a big mess.....

 

[Smurf1976]

A chart that's largely self-explanatory, source as per the website on the chart.

Noting this is 2023 performance versus the original installation date.

To be clear I'm not suggesting this is a problem, the point being there's no real trend. Beware anyone promising vast improvements but likewise beware anyone saying it's not working.

 

[rederob]

A recent paper on "Ultra-long-duration energy storage" proposes methanol over hydrogen and ammonia (pumped hydro not canvassed) in a wind/solar VRE world.
Schematically it looks like this:

There's lots of info underpinning how various options could work in practice, and here's a look at costs for Spain (which is geographically closer to Australia's climate than most other European nations):

As noted above, underground storage of hydrogen in salt caverns is cheaper than the methanol options, and Australia could also use depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, aquifers and underground mine workings. However, the methanol pathway looks like giving oil tankers a new leash of life.

 

[basilio]

I thought this analysis offered some good insights into the issues around a world transitioning to renewable energy.

Oil and Politics in the Mid-Transition​

Tim Sahay

, Kate Mackenzie

A world with terminally declining oil demand has never been experienced before, but the growth era for fossil fuels is ending, as many producers, investors and forecasters are acknowledging. This does not put climate goals in close reach, as CO2 flows need to fall far more dramatically to reduce the stock that is already too high. But pathways to both energy independence and strategic export industries no longer have to involve fossil fuels. Instead, they center on new manufacturing capabilities and technologies, mineral resources, and increasingly delicate trade relationships and security alliances.

Countries highly dependent on fossil fuel exports are seeking to diversify. Among the wealthiest countries in this category, Norway has been doing this most decisively via its sovereign wealth fund. Meanwhile, Gulf Coordination Council countries are deploying footloose petrodollars via private acquisitions targeting new industries and an increasing focus on development finance, especially vast forest carbon offset deals. Several low-income countries with fossil resources are hoping to develop them in time to exploit a declining market; while others such as Colombia and Ecuador are exploring ways to transition to new industries before the price decline.

Oil and Politics in the Mid-Transition | The Polycrisis

Adam Tooze, Amy Jaffe, Alex Turnbull, William Oman, and Morgan Bazilian on the geopolitics of a transitioning global energy system.

www.phenomenalworld.org

 

[mullokintyre]

I thought this analysis offered some good insights into the issues around a world transitioning to renewable energy.

Oil and Politics in the Mid-Transition​

Tim Sahay

, Kate Mackenzie

View attachment 165584



A world with terminally declining oil demand has never been experienced before, but the growth era for fossil fuels is ending, as many producers, investors and forecasters are acknowledging. This does not put climate goals in close reach, as CO2 flows need to fall far more dramatically to reduce the stock that is already too high. But pathways to both energy independence and strategic export industries no longer have to involve fossil fuels. Instead, they center on new manufacturing capabilities and technologies, mineral resources, and increasingly delicate trade relationships and security alliances.

Countries highly dependent on fossil fuel exports are seeking to diversify. Among the wealthiest countries in this category, Norway has been doing this most decisively via its sovereign wealth fund. Meanwhile, Gulf Coordination Council countries are deploying footloose petrodollars via private acquisitions targeting new industries and an increasing focus on development finance, especially vast forest carbon offset deals. Several low-income countries with fossil resources are hoping to develop them in time to exploit a declining market; while others such as Colombia and Ecuador are exploring ways to transition to new industries before the price decline.

Oil and Politics in the Mid-Transition | The Polycrisis

Adam Tooze, Amy Jaffe, Alex Turnbull, William Oman, and Morgan Bazilian on the geopolitics of a transitioning global energy system.

www.phenomenalworld.org

I started reading the article, but ended up scratching me head after the very first paragraph.
The author does not state how the decline in oil production statement was supported by data, but according to Energy data yearbook
Oil production did indeed decline - for one year during the covid lockdown, but has since kept increasing., as can be seen from the chart below. The figures for 2023 is extrapolated from the first part of the year.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

I started reading the article, but ended up scratching me head after the very first paragraph.
The author does not state how the decline in oil production statement was supported by data, but according to Energy data yearbook
Oil production did indeed decline - for one year during the covid lockdown, but has since kept increasing., as can be seen from the chart below. The figures for 2023 is extrapolated from the first part of the year.
Mick
View attachment 165585

My appologies, I posted the incorrect chart.
Below is the correct chart.
It still tells the same story.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

We export uranium.
We are buying nuclear subs.
And yet we have a nuclear reactor ban.
You know it makes sense.
Mick

 

[Smurf1976]

The author does not state how the decline in oil production statement was supported by data, but according to Energy data yearbook
Oil production did indeed decline - for one year during the covid lockdown

The only real decline there's ever been that wasn't due to an external crisis was during the early 1980's.

That was driven by fuel switching away from oil being in full swing at the time for industrial fuel, heat and especially electricity generation following the 1970's price and supply shocks. Australia seeing that trend as did most countries at the same time.

Other than that, there were some bumps during the 1930's Great Depression and again during WW2 for obvious reasons but nothing sustained or major. Early 80's was the only real decline of substance there's ever been.

 

[basilio]

Maybe get past the the first paragraph ?

It is looking at the overall situation of the shift from fossil fuel generation to renewable energy.
As for Nuclear power ? Anyone see what has happened with the SMR's ?

NuScale's SMR Project Collapses, Sparking Debate on Nuclear Energy's Role in Climate Change Mitigation - BNN Breaking

The collapse of the NuScale Power Corporation's SMR project, despite over $1 billion in funding from the Biden administration, highlights the challenges in developing innovative nuclear technologies and prompts debate on the role of nuclear energy in climate change mitigation.

bnn.network

 

[macca]

All new projects are prone to failure, just look at R&D expenditure with any listed company.

Very few get it right the first time and not everyone is good at what they do.

It may even be possible to adapt reactors from Subs to generate a Lot of power but that would not attract a Billion from the Govt would it

 

[sptrawler]

All new projects are prone to failure, just look at R&D expenditure with any listed company.

Very few get it right the first time and not everyone is good at what they do.

It may even be possible to adapt reactors from Subs to generate a Lot of power but that would not attract a Billion from the Govt would it

From what I have read cost and regulation are the two main factors against SMR's and nuclear in general, that will always be a stumbling block until a situation arrives where cost doesn't matter i.e when everything else has reached its sensible limit of generating capacity.
When that time arrives be it due to technical, ecological, political or some other reason, then unless a new technology has been developed nuclear will be looked at.
Snowy 2.0 is going to cost $12 billion, it still isn't being cancelled, because obviously despite the cost, analysis dictates it is still required.
I'm sure the same will happen with nuclear, as it did with the subs, eventually cost becomes the lesser of two evils.

 

[mullokintyre]

comments suggest the issue is due to the fact that when the wind does not blow, the company is forced to buy ekectricity on the open market, which has cost it a lot more than it wqas receiving in the contract with Norwegian Hydro.
The same commenter suggested that the company is 75% owned by CGN, China General Nuclear.
Mick

 

[SirRumpole]

Algae, fuel of the future ?

Algae is a biofuel option that can fuel you and your car, and could one day be a bowser choice

While you might recognise algae growing in your fish tank or floating on a lake, it can be transformed into a human food source that can also power your car, and it doesn't compete for space with crops.

www.abc.net.au