The future of energy generation and storage

[qldfrog]

And to put a sad twist

Solar: a risky waste of time and money | The Spectator Australia

In Australia, great reliance is being placed on electricity generation from solar panels, both roof-mounted and solar farms. The aim is to replace generation from coal and gas to reduce carbon dioxide…

www.spectator.com.au

"Put simply, Australia mines coal and exports it to China where coal-fired power stations generate electricity, which is used to manufacture PV panels and batteries, which Australia buys and uses to generate electricity from the rays of the sun. In their lifetimes, the solar panels never generate enough usable electricity to replace the coal/gas electricity they originated from.

Reliance on solar combined with closing down coal and gas generation is definitely premature and will lead to power shortages, inflated energy costs, compromised national security, and increased carbon dioxide emissions. Australia would be better off for supply reliability, emissions, costs, and sovereign security, to use coal and gas domestically for electricity generation"
We sell cheap coal gas to China which create batteries and PV panels that ultimately create more cost here... and CO2..even If I could not care less personally.
On a nation level, it is hard to do worse....

 

[mullokintyre]

If you want to read about charities, how much they spend on wages , thier numbers, try the link below. It makes for some supring results.
aCNC

 

[qldfrog]

And another set of sobering facts
But that is ok, reality does not matter for the true believers and I have long been on their ignore list

King Coal Outdistancing Wind/Solar/Hydro/Other Renewables - Master Resource

“The historic trends contradict the conventional view that fossil generation has been declining, while renewables are gaining. According to the data, ‘The share of low carbon fuels (nuclear, hydro, wind & solar) peaked at 36% in 1995, coinciding with COP1 [the first UN conference of parties].'”...

www.masterresource.org

Remember the above as what is left of our industry get smashed and you face 30% increases in your electricity bill.

 

[SirRumpole]

And another set of sobering facts
But that is ok, reality does not matter for the true believers and I have long been on their ignore list

King Coal Outdistancing Wind/Solar/Hydro/Other Renewables - Master Resource

“The historic trends contradict the conventional view that fossil generation has been declining, while renewables are gaining. According to the data, ‘The share of low carbon fuels (nuclear, hydro, wind & solar) peaked at 36% in 1995, coinciding with COP1 [the first UN conference of parties].'”...

www.masterresource.org

Remember the above as what is left of our industry get smashed and you face 30% increases in your electricity bill.

Coal is a non renewable resource Mr Frog, one day it will be all gone, and as it diminishes the price will go up.

The sooner we plan for that day the better off we will be.

 

[qldfrog]

Coal is a non renewable resource Mr Frog, one day it will be all gone, and as it diminishes the price will go up.

The sooner we plan for that day the better off we will be.

Sure, and it is true but what about keeping this resource we have plentiful and let proper economic giants suffer the pain as they are actually technologically advanced to do RD
If tomorrow, fusion takes off..I wish..what happen to our solar farms and dead batteries after 10y?.
Moreover if you read my previous post here, all this switch to renewable in Australia is not even energy self sustainable.so we burn more coal and gas in China , in transport, than we replace here to produce "green energy"...
Ideals are great, facts are harsh.
So in short, your electricity bill increase is just the cost of having our own power production being shipped to China and reimported via solar panels and batteries, thankfully, at least, they buy a little bit of our coal to make it.but not much overall
Remember I am on a fully self contained place with 44 solar panels and 36kw lithium battery..so not opposed ideologiquely.
But I do not pretend I save the planet and it is economically viable for me only due to the horrendous cost of laying lines here , a bargain purchase and the punitive energy price here,purely due to policies..

 

[SirRumpole]

Sure, and it is true but what about keeping this resource we have plentiful and let proper economic giants suffer the pain as they are actually technologically advanced to do RD
If tomorrow, fusion takes off..I wish..what happen to our solar farms and dead batteries after 10y?.
Moreover if you read my previous post here, all this switch to renewable in Australia is not even energy self sustainable.so we burn more coal and gas in China , in transport, than we replace here to produce "green energy"...
Ideals are great, facts are harsh.
So in short, your electricity bill increase is just the cost of having our own power production being shipped to China and reimported via solar panels and batteries, thankfully, at least, they buy a little bit of our coal to make it.but not much overall
Remember I am on a fully self contained place with 44 solar panels and 36kw lithium battery..so not opposed ideologiquely.
But I do not pretend I save the planet and it is economically viable for me only due to the horrendous cost of laying lines here , a bargain purchase and the punitive energy price here,purely due to policies..

Well, no one can say you didn't tell us so..

Reprieve for coal as potential WA power blackouts forecast amidst renewables transition

WA is facing a potential power shortfall over the coming decade amid the transition to renewables, leading the government to keep the Muja coal-fired power station operating longer than planned.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

Well, no one can say you didn't tell us so..

Reprieve for coal as potential WA power blackouts forecast amidst renewables transition

WA is facing a potential power shortfall over the coming decade amid the transition to renewables, leading the government to keep the Muja coal-fired power station operating longer than planned.

www.abc.net.au

The elephant in the room, is getting the coal, the easily recoverable seams are done and money needs to be spent developing new seams.
The other issue W.A has is no mountains for hydro, so upgrading the gas generators seems to be the obvious option, for long duration storage.
Interesting times

 

[SirRumpole]

Good news and bad news...

Cheap gas in WA puts off green hydrogen investors.

Cheap WA gas a factor in cancellation of green hydrogen project, energy company says

One of the world's largest green hydrogen projects planned for WA has been shelved, partly due to the state's cheap cost of natural gas.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

Coal is a non renewable resource Mr Frog, one day it will be all gone, and as it diminishes the price will go up.

I expect we're somewhat closer to that than is commonly realised.

Production of a finite resource doesn't end because it's all used up.

Rather, it ends because the reserves which meet the combined criteria of being economically worthwhile, physically recoverable and politically acceptable are used up.

Economic is self-explanatory. The deeper it gets, the more rock that has to be dug out along with the coal, the more remote the site is or the lower the grade of coal the worse the economics get.

Physical means we can do it, we have the technology. Ignoring all other factors it's possible to mine the coal - bearing in mind there's plenty that we've no real idea how to go about mining.

The political gets more complex but among others, I'll point to the known coal seams under the Adelaide CBD, in North Hobart, in metropolitan Sydney, on the outskirts of Melbourne and within various National Parks as coal that'll likely never be mined simply because of where it is. Some of those have had limited mining historically yes, most notably Sydney, but we're unlikely to see any major scale new mining venture today.

There's actually quite a few places where coal mining has peaked. UK most famously, given it's gone from the world's largest producer to almost total collapse, but all up there's plenty of countries or at least regions within countries where mining has started, peaked and declined in some cases to effectively zero today. That's what happens when the good quality, easily accessible coal is used up.

In the Australian context coal mining has gone to zero in SA and the writing is well and truly on the wall for both WA and Victoria. Given Tasmania's production is trivial, that leaves NSW and Qld as the only major coal states that aren't doomed in the foreseeable future but ultimately the end will come, it's a finite resource.

 

[Smurf1976]

Good news and bad news...

Cheap gas in WA puts off green hydrogen investors.

Produce hydrogen at a wind farm then truck it 250km and injected it into the gas supply.

Trucks. Actual trucks on the road.

If the aim was to produce some hydrogen and put it into the gas network for research purposes etc then far more rational to put the electrolyser at the location where it can be injected into the gas network, thus cutting out the trucks.

There's no rational reason to put the electrolyser at a wind farm. Well, not unless there's a game being played of cost shifting, tax avoidance, politics or similar.

SA has one up and running:

Hydrogen Park South Australia

Hydrogen Park South Australia

www.agig.com.au

The only trucks involved are to supply hydrogen in pure form off-site. Otherwise it's just being injected into the gas supply to that area.

 

[qldfrog]

It is but remember the peak oil in the 1970s...50y ago .half a century .and honestly petrol is still dirt cheap, last time I checked roughly 10y ago, known reserves of coal estimates were between 100 and 200 y of current, at the time , production.

Sorry for weird formatting
Open cut mining is savage,and a quick and dirty way to extract coal but longwall mining follow and extract coal seam underground mostly wo human interaction and with hardly any urfce disturbance..and we have hardly touched the in situ gas convertion .
Coal is and will remain the prime cheapest energy source of mankind until a better option is available, and sadly neither solar or wind are these option. Yet.. or ever?
We will as seem the case in most areas pretend to ignore the BIGGER world, and carry on on our lala land, planning solar farms, EVs, forbidding plastic straws and soon meat in the arrogant pretext that we are able to change nature, we are important enough to make a difference and are to be the example of the world until the next bad sneeze makes us dump billions of disposable useless made in China masks on our land and seas..lol.
Pathological.
But yes coal is finite as is oil,that dioes not justify artificially promoting waste of energy and money for non working mandated options.

 

[mullokintyre]

Sorry for weird formatting
Open cut mining is savage,and a quick and dirty way to extract coal but longwall mining follow and extract coal seam underground mostly wo human interaction and with hardly any urfce disturbance..and we have hardly touched the in situ gas convertion .
Coal is and will remain the prime cheapest energy source of mankind until a better option is available, and sadly neither solar or wind are these option. Yet.. or ever?
We will as seem the case in most areas pretend to ignore the BIGGER world, and carry on on our lala land, planning solar farms, EVs, forbidding plastic straws and soon meat in the arrogant pretext that we are able to change nature, we are important enough to make a difference and are to be the example of the world until the next bad sneeze makes us dump billions of disposable useless made in China masks on our land and seas..lol.
Pathological.
But yes coal is finite as is oil,that dioes not justify artificially promoting waste of energy and money for non working mandated options.

If he government puts enough penalties in the way of coal, either by a carbon tax, increased royalties, or as in Vic, just banning the extraction full stop, the other stuff will eventually get cheaper than coal, but on a relative basis only.
mick

 

[qldfrog]

I expect we're somewhat closer to that than is commonly realised.

Production of a finite resource doesn't end because it's all used up.

Rather, it ends because the reserves which meet the combined criteria of being economically worthwhile, physically recoverable and politically acceptable are used up.

Economic is self-explanatory. The deeper it gets, the more rock that has to be dug out along with the coal, the more remote the site is or the lower the grade of coal the worse the economics get.

Physical means we can do it, we have the technology. Ignoring all other factors it's possible to mine the coal - bearing in mind there's plenty that we've no real idea how to go about mining.

The political gets more complex but among others, I'll point to the known coal seams under the Adelaide CBD, in North Hobart, in metropolitan Sydney, on the outskirts of Melbourne and within various National Parks as coal that'll likely never be mined simply because of where it is. Some of those have had limited mining historically yes, most notably Sydney, but we're unlikely to see any major scale new mining venture today.

There's actually quite a few places where coal mining has peaked. UK most famously, given it's gone from the world's largest producer to almost total collapse, but all up there's plenty of countries or at least regions within countries where mining has started, peaked and declined in some cases to effectively zero today. That's what happens when the good quality, easily accessible coal is used up.

In the Australian context coal mining has gone to zero in SA and the writing is well and truly on the wall for both WA and Victoria. Given Tasmania's production is trivial, that leaves NSW and Qld as the only major coal states that aren't doomed in the foreseeable future but ultimately the end will come, it's a finite resource.

One key element to note:
As @Smurf1976 explained:
Not all states are equal so mix of energy types can be doable and economically sensible
Gas in WA, coal in Qld, hydro in tasmania, solar on SA without battery( where is it energy balance positive), various mixes in Vic nsw and interconnections to benefit from east west differential and peak delays but a solar farm on prime farmland in one of our wettest land near Qld Gympie is heresy, what next ?hydro in SA?

 

[qldfrog]

If he government puts enough penalties in the way of coal, either by a carbon tax, increased royalties, or as in Vic, just banning the extraction full stop, the other stuff will eventually get cheaper than coal, but on a relative basis only.
mick

And only in places that want to commit economic suicide..the west

 

[Smurf1976]

Coal is and will remain the prime cheapest energy source of mankind until a better option is available, and sadly neither solar or wind are these option. Yet.. or ever?

I'll argue it depends if we want it to work. That is, serious effort versus tokenism.

Take a rational engineering approach to it and it can be done technically. The economics aren't brilliant but they're good enough if a strict approach is taken to it all.

Problem thus far is there are far too many getting in the way, trying to bend the outcome to things that don't fit that strictly rational criteria. Result = higher than necessary costs, lower reliability and the ultimate irony a lack of progress on renewables overall.

 

[qldfrog]

I'll argue it depends if we want it to work. That is, serious effort versus tokenism.

Take a rational engineering approach to it and it can be done technically. The economics aren't brilliant but they're good enough if a strict approach is taken to it all.

Problem thus far is there are far too many getting in the way, trying to bend the outcome to things that don't fit that strictly rational criteria. Result = higher than necessary costs, lower reliability and the ultimate irony a lack of progress on renewables overall.

I agree, it is really a matter of realism.
Solar batteries on a Roadhouse in the middle of SA..a no brainer, a solar farm Lu's battery in Alice Springs same.
A solar farm and batteries in Noosa or sunshine coast cane farmland..an heresy both economically and ecologically .
So why ohh why is stating facts and figures, real science and numbers stats becoming far right, conspiracy.we saw it on the Covid business, climate change and see it again on renewables.
A study proving that even in Australia, quite a sunny place, a solar /wind plus battery solution is never in its lifetime, producing more energy than it needed to be produced should halt all battery projects..financed by taxpayers btw.
Then it is a case by case point and definitively not a carbon free grid by 20xx statement.
As always, it is government intervention via taxes and subsidies which make it economically viable to commit the heresy of buying the equivalent of canned coal energy from China in the form of solar farms with batteries.
I like your approach and prosaism @Smurf1976 and I guess if proven true, this australian focused study should be a revelation for you..was for me.
During that time, with an empty farm house injecting 300kw a month on the grid and consuming 20kw during that month, AGL sends me a 20$ bill for the privilege.so there is money to be made in solar indeed

 

[sptrawler]

As we have said over and over, once the fallout starts to affect people and the possibility of people sitting in a cold dark house increases, all of a sudden principles, ranting and chanting etc goes out the window.
Poor old Chris Bowens climate target IMO will end up a bullseye on his back, which is what was said as soon as he announced it.
Like I've said a lot of balls in the air and now some are starting to hit the floor, IMO this is going to be a massive backflip or a massive disaster.
Time will tell.

Cost of living crisis drives slump in support for urgent climate action

Fewer than half of Australians believe climate change is an urgent problem that requires immediate action, a decline from a slim majority two years ago.

www.smh.com.au

Fewer than half of Australians consider climate change to be an urgent problem that requires immediate action even if it comes at a cost, as economic pressures dominate voters’ concerns, adding to the federal government’s challenge in pursuing its emissions reduction agenda.

Exclusive findings from the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, show that just 12 per cent of voters nominated the environment and climate as their top priority, on par with health and aged care, while 48 per cent said keeping cost of living low was their primary concern.
The results show a tapering in support for strong climate action over the past two years, revealing that 45 per cent of voters agreed with the statement that climate change is a “serious and urgent problem” with action needed “even if that involves significant costs and sacrifices”.

This marks a decline from a majority position of 51 per cent under the former Coalition government.

Twenty-nine per cent said the problem should be tackled by “taking small steps over time”, while 16 per cent support a climate-sceptic approach that would see no significant costs incurred “until we are sure that climate change is a real problem”, and 10 per cent were undecided.
The slump in sentiment comes despite urgent warnings from climate experts for faster emissions reduction, including by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which declared in March that “window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future” is “rapidly closing.”

July was the hottest month ever recorded, with searing heatwaves across Asia, Europe and North America. Scientists are sounding the alarm about the onset of an El Nino event for the Australian summer which will increase the risk of heat waves and severe bushfires.

But mounting pressures on household budgets driven by high inflation and rising power bills appear to be outstripping environmental concerns in voters’ minds.

This adds to the challenge confronting Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen in making the case for further investment in emissions reduction policies, as the federal government comes under almost daily pressure from the opposition over its election promise to cut power bills by $275 by 2025.
For example, support for banning the installation of gas boilers in new homes declined from 38 per cent in October 2021 to 33 per cent.

Government subsidies for new electric vehicles dropped five percentage points to 56 per cent, while the Greens’ proposal to ban all coal mining and exports by 2030 was backed by just 29 per cent of voters – down from 37 per cent two years ago.
However, support for nuclear power to become part of Australia’s energy mix remained steady at 40 per cent, while a further 33 per cent were undecided, and just 27 per cent were opposed, suggesting the issue is likely to remain a key flashpoint in the energy debate.

 

[Smurf1976]

As we have said over and over, once the fallout starts to affect people and the possibility of people sitting in a cold dark house increases, all of a sudden principles, ranting and chanting etc goes out the window.

The bizarre thing about this is that those looking at the technical side and wanting to build solutions rationally are on the same side as those who are worried about climate change and wanting something done about it.

Only problem seems to be that those wanting it fixed can't get over the realities of what's required to fix it. That we need industrial scale solutions rather than cottage industry approaches to a problem they say is of epic proportions ought be obvious but it seems not.

There's a place for small things sure but overall if this is going to be sorted then it's big things that are going to do it and it's also the case that it's big things, fully utilised, that make it work in terms of being net energy positive and actually fixing the problem. We can't afford to have off-grid solar systems on every roof being routinely curtailed, we need them on the grid being fully utilised. That's not simply about money, that's the key to energy return from them.

The problem here is much like finances. If you want to the benefits of education, work and investment then you need to accept the downsides that come with it. You need to actually go to TAFE or uni, you need to do that 4 year apprenticeship, you need to go through a period of working 7 days a week, you need to invest and so on. If not, if you're not willing to incur the pain, then you don't get the benefit.

Same with energy. Renewables can be made to work but not if we keep arguing that we can't spoil anyone's view and soon, that's akin to sitting on the couch all day expecting to become a millionaire. Doesn't work that way.

 

[Sean K]

Are we really going to be able to rely on batteries to provide storage and 'firming' once coal and gas is gone, and hydrogen doesn't work?

AGL will on Tuesday launch the second largest grid-connected battery in the nation, located at Torrens Island, which it says has the capacity to store enough energy to power 75,000 homes.

The company’s chief executive Damien Nicks said the opening of the 250MW/250MWh battery was a key milestone for the company which is aiming to build out up to 12GW of renewable and grid-firming capacity by 2035.

“This battery is the second largest battery in Australia,’’ Mr Nicks said.

“It will provide enough electricity to power approximately 75,000 South Australian homes for one hour - with the option to extend the duration to four hours in the future when the market is ready.

 

[SirRumpole]

Are we really going to be able to rely on batteries to provide storage and 'firming' once coal and gas is gone, and hydrogen doesn't work?

Nope. Which is why we need hydro and gas peakers.