The future of energy generation and storage

[rederob]

They will have a Ouija Board out, now we will see how the problem will be fixed by some 'green' miracle, hope the batteries in the magic wand are charged. ?

Labor will not be like the idiots who actively put us years behind and left us with the mess we are in. Labor just needs to work out which of the ISP scenarios they want to latch onto, and ensure it is funded.

It was only 5 years ago, we were going to have molten salt storage towers replacing coal power stations, S.A even ordered the biggest one in the world. How's that going?

That was a SA government plan, and because they have been proactive with renewables they are scoring goals.

South Australia breaks record by running for a week on renewable energy​

Oh I forgot that was another brain fart, but the narrative moves on, nothing to see there, literally. ?

What narrative?

 

[sptrawler]

Labor will not be like the idiots who actively put us years behind and left us with the mess we are in. Labor just needs to work out which of the ISP scenarios they want to latch onto, and ensure it is funded.

There is nothing like the power of positive thinking, yeh.

?
What narrative, read your own posts, they are a great example of shifting narrative, I'm looking forward to the cancellation of Snowy 2.0, Kurri Kurri power station, the Tassie 2nd H.V undersea cable.
You know the ones that aren't being built because the last Govt did nothing and gas is a no no from now on.

 

[rederob]

There is nothing like the power of positive thinking, yeh. ?

Nothing to think about as it's all laid out. Labor just needs to pick one:

 

[sptrawler]

Nothing to think about as it's all laid out. Labor just needs to pick one:
View attachment 142460

You should have posted the last one from around 2013, when they were saying molten salt storage plants could supply all the base load and shut down coal by 2020, it was another fantastic believable document. They are a bit like a broken clock, eventually they are right.

Renewables are taking over and it will happen, how much people have to pay for to change and how much the technology changes, are the only parts that are in question.
There is no point in having a fabulously squeaky clean electricity grid, when no one can afford to buy the electricity, it's a bit like the E.V's everyone would have one if they were dirt cheap, but they are reluctant to buy at current prices.

Lets not kid ourselves, we could go fully renewable in 10 years, if we throw all our money at it, but the cost would be eye watering and electricity prices would be astronomical,, but usage and demand would fall hugely.
Only the elites would be able to afford it, the unwashed masses would be in jail for not paying their bills, ah back to the future. ?

 

[rederob]

You should have posted the last one from around 2013, when they were saying molten salt storage plants could supply all the base load and shut down coal by 2020, it was another fantastic believable document.

There was no ISP in 2013. The first one was announced in December 2017.
The LCOE for molten salt storage back then was not too bad - here's 2016's estimates from Lazard:

There is no point in having a fabulously squeaky clean electricity grid, when no one can afford to buy the electricity, it's a bit like the E.V's everyone would have one if they were dirt cheap, but they are reluctant to buy at current prices.

That's plain nonsense.
The move to renewables is based on the reality of those sources being significantly cheaper. That was apparent many years ago and the problems of electricity costs today stem from sheer inaction. The only interim consideration is how total demand is met during the transition, which we are barely in, unlike Europe.

Lets not kid ourselves, we could go fully renewable in 10 years, if we throw all our money at it, but the cost would be eye watering and electricity prices would be astronomical,, but usage and demand would fall hugely.

Try doing the maths on that and the only problem needing to be solved is how fast it can happen as it will be impossible for it to end up more expensive in Australia.

Only the elites would be able to afford it, the unwashed masses would be in jail for not paying their bills, ah back to the future. ?

Given I get paid around a $1k each year (ie make a net profit) in FIT from AGL and am limited to a 5 kilowatt inverter, there would be millions of household that could afford to put solar on their rooves and back it up with battery storage so that over a 10 year period or less their systems will have paid for themselves. And as solar+storage gets cheaper every year most Aussie battlers who own their homes could afford this as it works out at around half the average price of a new car.

 

[sptrawler]

There was no ISP in 2013. The first one was announced in December 2017.
The LCOE for molten salt storage back then was not too bad - here's 2016's estimates from Lazard:
View attachment 142462


That's plain nonsense.
The move to renewables is based on the reality of those sources being significantly cheaper. That was apparent many years ago and the problems of electricity costs today stem from sheer inaction. The only interim consideration is how total demand is met during the transition, which we are barely in, unlike Europe.

Try doing the maths on that and the only problem needing to be solved is how fast it can happen as it will be impossible for it to end up more expensive in Australia.

Given I get paid around a $1k each year (ie make a net profit) in FIT from AGL and am limited to a 5 kilowatt inverter, there would be millions of household that could afford to put solar on their rooves and back it up with battery storage so that over a 10 year period or less their systems will have paid for themselves. And as solar+storage gets cheaper every year most Aussie battlers who own their homes could afford this as it works out at around half the average price of a new car.

Well we shall look forward to it happening very soon, there is obviously no excuse. ?

 

[sptrawler]

The LCOE for molten salt storage back then was not too bad - here's 2016's estimates from Lazard:
View attachment 142462

And here is some more recent information.

America’s Concentrated Solar Power Companies Have All but Disappeared

SolarReserve, one of America’s last remaining CSP developers, appears to have ceased operations — just as some global markets may be warming up.

www.greentechmedia.com

From the article:
Commissioned in 2015, the plant never managed to achieve its average expected monthly output, according to a late-2019 market outlook from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. And last August, S&P Global Platts said the plant had only achieved a 0.3 percent capacity factor in the second quarter of 2019, delivering a paltry 765 megawatt-hours of power to the grid.

One of the highest-profile failures at Crescent Dunes was an eight-month shutdown caused by a leak in the plant’s molten salt thermal storage tank.


Fortunately our Governments don't seem to run around like headless chooks, as some with agenda's do. ?

Well they haven't done so up until now, time will tell how the next ones fare.
Hopefully people take their political glasses off and appreciate the reality facing the politicians and the consumers.

 

[rederob]

And here is some more recent information.

America’s Concentrated Solar Power Companies Have All but Disappeared

SolarReserve, one of America’s last remaining CSP developers, appears to have ceased operations — just as some global markets may be warming up.

www.greentechmedia.com

So what?
It's very much a horses for courses proposition:

 

[SirRumpole]

Just wait for the nuclear debate to start up again...

 

[sptrawler]

So what?
It's very much a horses for courses proposition:

It certainly is, but 7 years ago on this thread, studies and proposals were being pushed on here that showed that this technology was going to replace fossil fueled base load generation by 2020.
They were just as adamant about it then, as the posters today are, the common denominator is they all had sod all working knowledge of any of it.
Some would even deride and ridicule smurf, as not knowing what he is talking about, that is the self confidence and arrogance some had.

It isn't rocket science that renewables are better, cheaper, less maintenance, less people, less input costs, so even blind Freddy can see it will happen, the how to do it and keep the lights on is the only issue.
That will become obvious to people in the very near future IMO.
As I have said before it will be self resolving, we have had the Coalition method of installing storage, H.V transmission infrastructure and allowing the market to sort out the generation, letting the renewables eat away at the coal generation profits.
Now we will have the alternative approach, maybe?
let's wait and see if this big light switch moment happens, will there be a massive push, or will there actually be a sobering moment for the new Government?
Time will tell.

 

[rederob]

It certainly is, but 7 years ago on this thread, studies and proposals were being pushed on here that showed that this technology was going to replace fossil fueled base load generation by 2020.

No accounting for the people who post here, is there!

As I have said before it will be self resolving,

Sorry - it does not fix itself.
That's why we are in this mess now.

Let's wait and see if this big light switch moment happens, will there be a massive push, or will there actually be a sobering moment for the new Government?
Time will tell.

Again, it's all mapped out and Labor just needs to choose which scenario to run with, and ensure it is funded.
Not sure why you think Labor is not aware of what needs to happen, and quick smart.

 

[sptrawler]

No accounting for the people who post here, is there!

No there isn't.

Sorry - it does not fix itself.

I was inferring that the issue has to be resolved, but there are several avenues to resolve it, it will be "self" resolving because it can't be left unresolved.
Therefore if it wont be left unresolved, it will be "self" resolving because someone has to do it, it will fix itself because the problem can't be left unresolved, humans rely on electricity.
Therefore it will be resolved regardless, who the "self" is, depends on how critical the issue gets and which party is office at that time..

That's why we are in this mess now.

We in W.A are not in a mess, so really it isn't an Australia wide mess is it, it is a Victoria, NSW, S.A and Queensland mess, at least be accurate.

Again, it's all mapped out and Labor just needs to choose which scenario to run with, and ensure it is funded.
Not sure why you think Labor is not aware of what needs to happen, and quick smart.

At last something we agree on.

 

[Smurf1976]

Companies like Brickworks and many other manufacturing companies in Australia are going to go to the wall if we don't do something.

Indeed.

Households consume 22.8% of electricity, the other 77.2% is used by business and for gas that's even more tilted toward business use.

Aiming to be unbiased politically here but just commenting on the politics of energy in Australia going back a very long way, decades, under governments of both persuasions I'll note the energy debates and the position of political parties can be pigeon holed into the following broad categories (listed in random order):

*Climate change both the existence of a problem and the response to it.

*Non-climate environmental issues. For example nuclear, dams, aesthetics of transmission lines, drilling for oil and gas (as distinct from the CO2 emissions from burning it), etc.

*Making money by exporting energy resources.

*Economic ideology. Matters such as government ownership versus private ownership, competitive markets versus monopolies, regulated prices versus unreglated, etc.

*At a local level, economic opportunities presented by energy development projects. That's tended to be an issue primarily in the smaller population states, especially Tasmania, and regional areas.

That sums up most of it.

Now does anyone think that there might just be something missing from that list?

Ah yes, that bit about actually supplying energy to consumers. You know, the whole point of the industry's very existence in the first place. For all that's been said, and there's an awful lot, that rather crucial point has been almost completely overlooked and to be clear, that goes back a lot further than just the previous federal government.

Government has essentially treated the whole thing as though coal-fired power stations were built for no reason other than to burn coal or as though the only reason to build a wind farm was to create employment. Nope, both of those are sideline reasons at best, they sure aren't the main reason.

As an analogy, between all the talk about economics, environment and so on what we've ended up with is the equivalent of a great big stage set up at the MCG. We've got catering sorted, we've got extra public transport services scheduled and we've completely sold out of tickets. All good to go then? Well just one problem.....

We ain't got no band.

Band yes. Those people on the stage playing instruments and singing. Band. Without that the rest is completely and absolutely pointless.

With energy that's not far from where we've managed to get ourselves really and so far as politics is concerned, well I'm not going to blame anyone because there'd be an awfully long list of people to blame. An awfully long list of people who spent their time arguing about everything other than how to maintain energy supply to society, failing to grasp that this was the original problem, it was the original question. Like the band, it's the reason for the rest.

If I were to give credit to any politician then I'd give it to Malcolm Turnbull. Argue all you like as to whether something better could have been done but ultimately he did get a 2000MW storage scheme under construction. Some will argue it's not the economically optimum project but at least it's an actual, real piece of infrastructure that, assuming it's built as per the design, is fit for purpose within its capabilities. More is needed but that does beat just coming up with policies, theories, regulations and denials.

Plus some credit to various WA and Tasmanian state governments for giving the firm middle finger to assorted federal politicians and other states on the subject.

Now for how to fix it.....

 

[Smurf1976]

If the government wants a quick fix then in short ideology needs to be tossed out the window and focus on what actually gets the job done quickly.

Key points noting that this intentionally focused on required physical actions not words:

1. Physical dispatch of non-energy constrained sources needs to take precedence over energy constrained sources at all times at least until storage levels are restored.

2. Overcome the coal constraint at Eraring and elsewhere by any means possible. Buy it on the spot market and put it on trains, trucks or whatever just get it there.

3. Run flow on the South-West Queensland pipeline, which connects to Moomba (SA) at a constant 404 TJ / day into SA which is its maximum capacity. This will supply about 20% of peak day demand and about 22% of average winter daily demand.

4. Make all possible efforts to store gas at Newcastle, presently just 1.4% full, and at Dandenong presently at 44%.

5. Building up hydro storage also an urgent priority, noting the relatively depleted state of major reservoirs at present (long term storage is mostly in the 23% to 31% range at present and falling) and downstream loss of future irrigation and urban water supply due to present releases during flood or near-flood conditions.

6. Prior to winter 2023, reinstatement or new installation of fuel oil, distillate or LPG firing capability at a number of existing gas only generation sites in NSW, Vic and SA.

7. Owing to the weather forecast, above should be agreed not later than Monday 6th June and preferably sooner. Since this likely precludes legislation being put through parliament in that time, the practical workaround is to do it behind the scenes quietly and off the record.

Noting that the above is short term focused as the immediate short term fix. Obviously there needs to be a longer term fix involving renewables, storage, transmission etc.

Note that my proposed approach does not involve an arbitrary restriction of gas exports. In return well I note that the company needing to do the most work, physically, just happens to also own one of the LNG facilities. That's coincidental but convenient when it comes to doing things quickly and quietly.

Overall it could be done. If it isn't done and we end up with manufacturers closing down, the lights going out etc then it'll be not because it wasn't possible but because not enough urgency was attached to the task by governments. Should that occur, if it's not resolved, well I wouldn't want to be a state Premier or the PM trying to explain that one.

 

[Smurf1976]

3. Run flow on the South-West Queensland pipeline, which connects to Moomba (SA) at a constant 404 TJ / day into SA which is its maximum capacity. This will supply about 20% of peak day demand and about 22% of average winter daily demand.

I should add that this would not be required constantly, only intermittently, and depends on day to day weather, since production through Moomba, Longford, Lang Lang, Orbost and Otway gas plants would also be maximised. Hence the short term impact on LNG exports, whilst not zero, wouldn't be huge.

Longer term there's no avoiding a reduction no matter what, since Qld doesn't have sufficient gas either, so no real argument there.

 

[SirRumpole]

I should add that this would not be required constantly, only intermittently, and depends on day to day weather, since production through Moomba, Longford, Lang Lang, Orbost and Otway gas plants would also be maximised. Hence the short term impact on LNG exports, whilst not zero, wouldn't be huge.

Longer term there's no avoiding a reduction no matter what, since Qld doesn't have sufficient gas either, so no real argument there.

Smurf do you see any value in the Fed government taking over coal stations that have been run down due to lack of maintenance to ensure that the maintenance is done properly and therefore have the stations operational asap instead of continual cost cutting by the current owners ?

 

[sptrawler]

It looks like Japan has taken an interest in Sea power, for generation, very different technology to the Carnegie wave generators.

Giant deep ocean turbine trial offers hope of endless green power - Taipei Times

Power-hungry, fossil fuel dependent Japan has successfully tested a system that could provide a constant, steady form of renewable energy, regardless of the wind or the sun. For more than a decade, Japanese heavy machinery maker IHI has been developing a subsea turbine that harnesses the energy...

www.taipeitimes.com

From the article:

Power-hungry, fossil fuel dependent Japan has successfully tested a system that could provide a constant, steady form of renewable energy, regardless of the wind or the sun.

For more than a decade, Japanese heavy machinery maker IHI has been developing a subsea turbine that harnesses the energy in deep ocean currents, and converts it into a steady and reliable source of electricity. The giant machine resembles an airplane, with two counterrotating turbine fans in place of jets and a central “fuselage” housing a buoyancy adjustment system.

Called “Kairyu,” the 330 tonne prototype is designed to be anchored to the sea floor at a depth of 30m to 50m.
In commercial production, the plan is to site the turbines in the Kuroshio Current, one of the world’s strongest, which runs along Japan’s eastern coast, and transmit the power via seabed cables.

“Ocean currents have an advantage in terms of their accessibility in Japan,” said Ken Takagi, a professor of ocean technology policy at the University of Tokyo Graduate School of Frontier Sciences. “Wind power is more geographically suited to Europe, which is exposed to predominant westerly winds and is located at higher latitudes.”

The Japanese New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) estimates that the Kuroshio Current could potentially generate as much as 200 gigawatts — about 60 percent of Japan’s present generating capacity.

Like other nations, the lion’s share of investment in renewables has gone into wind and solar, especially after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant disaster curbed Japan’s appetite for atomic energy.

The world’s third-largest generator of solar power, Japan is investing heavily in offshore wind, but harnessing ocean currents could provide the reliable baseline power needed to reduce the need for energy storage or fossil fuels.
The advantage of ocean currents is their stability. They flow with little fluctuation in speed and direction, giving them a capacity factor — a measure of how often the system is generating energy — of 50 to 70 percent, compared with about 27 percent for onshore wind and 15 percent for solar.

In February, IHI completed a three-year demonstration study of the technology with NEDO. Its team tested the system in the waters near the Tokara Islands in southwestern Japan by hanging Kairyu from a vessel and sending power back to the ship. It first drove the ship to artificially generate a current and then suspended the turbines in the Kuroshio.

The tests proved that the prototype could generate the expected 100 kilowatts of stable power, and the company now plans to scale up to a full 2 megawatt system that could be in commercial operation in the next decade or later.

 

[wayneL]

Just a little tidbit re the nuclear issue, FWIW.

 

[SirRumpole]

ACCC to investigate power prices.

(WOW)

It will be interesting to see if they have any teeth.

'They'll be taking a close look': ACCC tipped to step up energy policing as price crisis takes hold

A leading Australian energy lawyer says big power providers are facing increased scrutiny from the competition watchdog amid concerns a shake-out of the industry could lead to price gouging.

www.abc.net.au

 

[SirRumpole]

Just a little tidbit re the nuclear issue, FWIW.

I wonder how many of these will be churning out nuclear weapons.