The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

Sounds as though Origin has had some talks, with a government, which one who knows.
The good thing is the problem will have been brought to a head and some clarity as to how dire the situation is, would have been exposed.

Energy Minister tells Origin to ‘keep to its word’ on 2025 coal exit review

The energy company that shocked Angus Taylor with its coal closure announcement has been put on notice over a key price promise.

www.theage.com.au

From the article:
Origin Energy has committed to delaying the closure of Australia’s largest coal-burning power station if the grid is not equipped for its early exit in 2025, prompting Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor to warn the company must honour its promise and put customers first.
The electricity and gas giant this week gave notice of its intention to retire the 2880-megawatt Eraring generator at Lake Macquarie in NSW up to seven years earlier than its scheduled exit in 2032 as the roll-out of cheaper wind and solar power hammered the plant’s economic viability.

 

[sptrawler]

Renewables production on the World stage and the difficulties due to China's dominance in manufacturing.

China’s renewables boom year poses major challenges to western markets

Balancing reliance on China’s technology providers with local interests is now a key political as well as environmental challenge, says Wood Mackenzie.

www.mining.com

Whitworth said: “For China, the energy transition is a golden opportunity to develop key industries and technologies while improving its green credentials. Accelerating efforts to tackle its own emissions while supporting global decarbonisation sounds like an irresistible proposition.

“For the western economies, responses are more wide-ranging – tariffs, local content policies, tax breaks, collaboration, technical innovation, etc. Competition from all sides is intense, which should bring benefits to the trajectory of global decarbonisation.

 

[mullokintyre]

I wrote about the potential takeover of AGL by Mike Cannon-Brooks on the AGL thread, so won't repeat it here.
But his stated desire to decarbonise AGL more quickly does not bode well for the coal driven generators at Loy Yang in Victoria, or the Macquarrie plant in NSW.
Not sure how he sees the Gas side of AGL, both as a producer and a retailer , but I can't imagine it will be good for those wanting gas, seeing as it is a fossil fuel and does produce CO2 etc, and he wants to decarbonise.
Its interesting that no one seems to think it a bit sus that those who have renewables (including AGL) are keen for their fossil fuel competitors to be taken out of the market, but will they be able to set the price higher?
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

Good pick up Mick, I only picked up on this on ASF.
Yes a very timely exercise by the greens, Scomo should wedge them with an O.K as long as you guarantee continuity of supply to 2050, and put up $x as assurance, with the ability for consumers to recover compensation for loses attributed.
It's o.k making glib offers, but when everyone is sitting in houses with the food going off, the toilet not flushing and the aircon not working.
They wont blame Mike Cannon-Brooks, they will blame the Government for allowing it to happen, this is the problem with giving virtue signalers air.IMO
Also a timely reminder of what @Smurf1976 and I have been saying for years, get the politics out of the electrical system. If it is stuffed up, it will cause more deaths than any covid, just imagine going for extended periods without a reliable electrical supply, it really doesn't bear thing about. It would be catastrophic IMO
Just imagine all the skid mount diesel generators outside the KFC and Maccas outlets, the pollution would be worse than Kuta on its worst day. ?

 

[Smurf1976]

But his stated desire to decarbonise AGL more quickly does not bode well for the coal driven generators at Loy Yang in Victoria, or the Macquarrie plant in NSW.

I posted some comment in the AGL thread but in short, if anyone tries to shut Loy Yang then I'll speculate that the likely outcome is compulsory acquisition by government.

As a concept, compulsory acquisition isn't without precedent in the energy industry - Victoria, SA, Tas, NSW and Qld have all done it in the past and it came down either to voluntary sale by the then owners, no sale but an agreement to work co-operatively with the state, or actual forced sale where the owners didn't want to sell with examples of all three.

The reason is simply that from a purely engineering perspective, so ignoring all issues of finances, politics, business and the environment, there's no identified means to run the Victorian section of the grid in a secure state without at least two units on at Loy Yang at all times and even that requires quite a few other very specific generating units to be on. Running with more LY units on is far easier.

That's the outcome of proper engineering work, it's not a political or financial decision.

Of the six units at Loy Yang, in two physical power stations, AGL owns 4 and Alinta owns the other 2 whilst AGL owns the mine which supplies coal to the whole lot and the conveyor system which transports it (the coal never goes onto a train or truck, it's simply dredger > conveyor > power stations).

The full detail is on pages 18 - 20 of this document:

https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/security_and_reliability/congestion-information/transfer-limit-advice-system-strength.pdf

With reference to the table on those pages:

Loy Yang A or B = coal plant owned by AGL and Alinta total 6 units

Yallourn W = 4 unit coal plant owned by Energy Australia

Newport (aka Newport D) = single unit gas-fired steam plant owned by Energy Australia

Dartmouth = single unit hydro owned by AGL

Bogong = two unit hydro owned by AGL

Murray 2 = four unit hydro owned by Snowy Hydro

Mortlake = two unit gas turbine owned by Origin Energy

Jeeralang A = four unit gas turbine owned by Energy Australia. Jeeralang B, right next to it, has three units.

Valley Power = six unit gas turbines owned by Snowy Hydro and physically located at the Loy Yang site despite the separate ownership.

 

[basilio]

Having a reliable electricity supply to Australian industry and the community is non negotiable. As Smurf points out currently Victoria has to have a significant number of Loy Yang power stations in operation to ensure the power supply.

If Michael Cannon-Brooks and his partner takes over AGL they still have the same responsibility and liability for providing sufficient power. The question will be what steps do they take to accelerate renewable energy power sources and associated back up options if they intend to speed up the closure of coal fired power.

The economics of coal fired power stations are now falling behind renewables. This will be one of the overriding business reasons for closing them down. The renewable power industry has shown how quickly wind solar and back up power can be developed. Perhaps it will be AMEO that sets out the requirements for a safe power supply ?

 

[Humid]

He should be putting cars in space and playing with rockets like the rest of the billionaires

 

[Investoradam]

Congratulations on being off grid. Do you ever need to use say a petrol generator, or is it all solar and batteries ?

The pixy fairies appear from the trees when the power runs out and sprinkle some of there magic fairy dust over the solar panels to provide enough power until the sunshines again

 

[Investoradam]

Renewables production on the World stage and the difficulties due to China's dominance in manufacturing.

China’s renewables boom year poses major challenges to western markets

Balancing reliance on China’s technology providers with local interests is now a key political as well as environmental challenge, says Wood Mackenzie.

www.mining.com

Whitworth said: “For China, the energy transition is a golden opportunity to develop key industries and technologies while improving its green credentials. Accelerating efforts to tackle its own emissions while supporting global decarbonisation sounds like an irresistible proposition.

“For the western economies, responses are more wide-ranging – tariffs, local content policies, tax breaks, collaboration, technical innovation, etc. Competition from all sides is intense, which should bring benefits to the trajectory of global decarbonisation.

View attachment 137842

Is that why the demand and price for coal is at near record highs?

 

[sptrawler]

Is that why the demand and price for coal is at near record highs?

If you read the article, it is more about China's dominance in manufacturing, than fuel.

 

[Humid]

The pixy fairies appear from the trees when the power runs out and sprinkle some of there magic fairy dust over the solar panels to provide enough power until the sunshines again

You only need a fridge to keep the VBs cold hey Adsy

 

[Smurf1976]

For the record, with all the talk about Eraring power station over the past few days, it was the cause of some drama in NSW yesterday with unit 2 tripping from 649 MW (almost full output) at 3pm NSW time.

The lights stayed on but it caused a bit of excitement.

 

[Investoradam]

If you read the article, it is more about China's dominance in manufacturing, than fuel.

What powers all that

 

[Investoradam]

The largest lithium-ion battery in the world experienced a meltdown over the weekend, its second in five months.
An energy storage facility owned by Vistra Energy in Moss Landing, California, triggered fire alarms on the evening of Feb. 13. Four fire trucks responded to the event and found around ten battery packs in the facility melted entirely, according to local broadcaster KSBW.

The Largest Lithium-Ion Battery in the World Keeps Melting

Ten battery packs melted in an energy storage facility in California, the second meltdown in five months.

www.vice.com

 

[sptrawler]

What powers all that

Most of the electricity in China comes from coal, which accounted for 65% of the electricity generation mix in 2019. However, electricity generation by renewables has been increasing steadily, from 615,005 GWh (17.66% of total) in 2008 to 2,082,800 GWh (27.32% of total) in 2020.


Why do you ask?

 

[Investoradam]

Most of the electricity in China comes from coal, which accounted for 65% of the electricity generation mix in 2019. However, electricity generation by renewables has been increasing steadily, from 615,005 GWh (17.66% of total) in 2008 to 2,082,800 GWh (27.32% of total) in 2020.


Why do you ask?

And how did it fair during last year when China slowed the coal down?
People froze and factories shut down

 

[Investoradam]

You only need a fridge to keep the VBs cold hey Adsy

Nah the hipsters drink that bath water now days I’m sure if you brought some of that organic alcohol free beer they won’t laugh at you

 

[sptrawler]

And how did it fair during last year when China slowed the coal down?
People froze and factories shut down

That's right.

 

[SirRumpole]

The penny seems to have dropped...​

​

Coal-fired power in Australia could be over within 10 years concedes lobbyist Ian Macfarlane​

Coal-fired power could be over 'within the decade' concedes lobbyist Ian Macfarlane

Just a few years ago he argued for more coal-fired power stations to be built on the east coast, but former Coalition cabinet minister Ian Macfarlane now says there could be none left within 10 years.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

The penny seems to have dropped...​

​

Coal-fired power in Australia could be over within 10 years concedes lobbyist Ian Macfarlane​

Coal-fired power could be over 'within the decade' concedes lobbyist Ian Macfarlane

Just a few years ago he argued for more coal-fired power stations to be built on the east coast, but former Coalition cabinet minister Ian Macfarlane now says there could be none left within 10 years.

www.abc.net.au

Well we have been saying it will happen a lot faster than people think, as we keep saying over and over, coal fired steam plant can't survive being operated in this renewable climate, it just kills the plant.
The thing is obviously the owner operators are starting to tell the politicians, this needs sorting, even Victoria who talk a lot and do little seem to have had the penny drop.
The real issue is commitment to long duration storage, but this process is like pulling teeth, the States don't want to spend the money but want to just keep pulling in the revenue.
This will come to a head in the next couple of years IMO, each State is going to have to commit to some pumped hydro, or at call gas installations. The EU is showing just how useless the narrative they have been pumping is, they are in more $hit than Ned Kelly if Putin turns off the gas and they know it.
Leading the World with clean energy, while shutting down nuclear and ramping up gas consumption. Like how can the gas be better than the nuclear?

Victoria places bet on offshore wind​

Premier Dan Andrews is planning to develop a huge offshore wind industry as it seeks new sources to replace ageing coal.