The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

AGL to close one of the S.A based Torrens Island B station gas fired turbines, I presume they are steam units,

Basic details as follows:

Total plant installed consists of Torrens Island Power Station A (TIPSA) and Torrens Island Power Station B (TIPSB).

TIPSA consists of 4 x 120 MW units commissioned 1967 - 70, originally designed to fire oil but converted to gas from 1969 so oil was really only ever a temporary then backup fuel.

TIPSB consists of 4 x 200 MW units commissioned 1977 - 82 in two stages of construction, two units each, though all as the one power station as such. Boilers are designed as gas-fired, units 3 & 4 also having oil burners but rarely used and those two were designed to accommodate conversion to coal-firing although that was never implemented in practice.

So fuel is gas in practice but a bit of oil has been used on occasion.

All units are conventional steam plant and consist of one boiler + turbine + generator each and associated equipment. All can operate independently of each other.

The two facilities are right next to each other such that someone unfamiliar would not unreasonably describe it as a single power station. Location is at Torrens Island, hence the name, about 15km north-west of the Adelaide CBD so it's outer suburban.

Present status:

TIPSA units 2 & 4 are now permanently mothballed and de-registered.

TIPSA unit 1 is still registered but not operating in practice and planned to be de-registered in the near future.

TIPSA unit 3 is being run intermittently but will in practice be mothballed from 1st October 2021 though not de-registered for another 12 months as was the case with the others.

So in practice TIPSA is 75% mothballed now and will be completely mothballed from October this year and, realistically, probably won't ever run again though it's not totally impossible.

TIPS B unit 1 had a planned major outage to commence on 12 August 2021 with a return to service planned for November. What's changed is that AGL have cancelled the return to service and, presumably, will not do the required maintenance work.

So whilst the announcement says it's closing in October, in practice it's gone 5 weeks from now.

That leaves 600 MW of the original 1280 MW of plant at Torrens Island Power Stations (A + B combined) in service.

As to the background, well my observations are basically that gas is effectively stuffed as an energy source for anything other than backup and peaking generation. In all seriousness, right at this moment it's about the same cost to burn gas as it is to burn petrol and that's really getting ridiculous. Depending on state, the price is running at 3 or even 4 times that of 12 months ago.

Politically well I'm glad it won't be me in the firing line but I can see some fallout from this on multiple fronts.

My personal opinion there is that from a political perspective, AGL has just lit the fuse on a bomb with this one and the only question is who's head gets blown off in due course. There'll be some fallout in my opinion, big time, but it's anyone's guess as to the details.

Fallout due to the ideological issues regarding gas-fired generation, gas production, AGL's cancelled LNG import terminal and so on.

Fallout when the not 100% certain but probable event happens that there's load shedding which would have been reduced or avoided had Torrens Island remained fully operational.

From a purely technical perspective the latter point there is just a numbers game. It's impossible to say when but at some point the ducks will line up. Just needs a heatwave across SA + Vic and not much wind then stand back, get the popcorn* and watch the show unfold.

Politically though, they've lit the fuse on a bomb in my view. Only question is who's holding it when it goes bang.

*Make the popcorn early, just in case your power gets turned off.

 

[sptrawler]

It could be a case of too little too late for AGL IMO, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time, maybe they should have started swapping out Torrens A units for a couple of HEGT's a while ago.
Firstly it would have given them some flexibility, secondly it would have taken some cycling duty off the 200MW units, thirdly they would have used a lot less fuel and lastly they would be available as firming capacity for quite some time.
Just a thought, but as with the East coast, until there is sufficient renewable generation and storage to overcome several days of low output the requirement for at call generation will be present for a long time.
AGL really seems to be playing with a handful of two's at the moment, hopefully they get a cohesive plan together, there is one thing having a lot of assets, but it's like shares there is no point holding onto the dogs until they are worthless.

 

[Smurf1976]

What if the Callide unit doesn't come back, that was catastrophic damage

Latest suggestion seems to be end of calendar year 2022 so ~18 months away for the damaged unit.

The undamaged one at Callide C station should be on next week they're saying.

 

[Smurf1976]

This gas caper is getting somewhat out of hand.

Spot price right now:

Sydney = $29.78 / GJ
Victoria = $26.11 / GJ
Adelaide = $21.00 / GJ forecast to reach $28.00 tomorrow

At those prices it's cheaper to burn diesel than gas and in Sydney well you could run a boiler using petrol and it'd be cheaper which is really getting quite ridiculous.

Earlier this year around $6 was the norm.

Financially well I do wonder if anyone's doing the proverbial "swimming naked" and either losing or making serious $? There’s quite a price shock going on right now for those who aren’t hedged.

 

[sptrawler]

AS we have been saying for a long time, Australia will be transitioning much faster to renewables than people expect, it sounds as though the reconfiguration of the grid is accelerating.
The more the grid and infrastructure is reconfigured to be able to handle renewables, the less competitive the steam driven plant becomes, which in turn accelerates their demise.

100 per cent renewables by 2025: Grid operator pushes clean energy revolution

Australia can be ready to lead the world and power its energy grid with 100 per cent renewables by 2025, the new head of the energy grid operator says.

www.theage.com.au

From the article:
Increased output from wind, large-scale and rooftop solar, which cannot generate power unless it’s sunny or windy, is complicating the grid operator’s job of supplying power to consumers, while the loss of the continuous power traditionally provided by coal and gas could pose risks to the reliability of the network.
Mr Westerman said stronger transmission infrastructure, big batteries, pumped hydro and gas plants providing on-demand energy would be vital to ensuring a smooth transition. However, if successful, Mr Westerman says the east-coast electricity grid, which is usually powered 70 per cent by coal, should be able to handle 100 per cent renewable energy at a single moment in time by 2025.
Mr Westerman, who took over as head of the Australian Energy Market Operator two months ago, said the accelerating pace of change in Australia had prompted him to set the bold target and seek to harness capabilities and experience across the industry through collaboration.

Mr Westerman insists the push is necessary to cater for a rapid influx of wind and solar farms and rooftop solar panels nationwide as more coal-fired power stations close down.
“This must be our goal not because of personal ambition, politics or ideology, but because we know this is where we’re headed,” he says.

 

[Smurf1976]

However, if successful, Mr Westerman says the east-coast electricity grid, which is usually powered 70 per cent by coal, should be able to handle 100 per cent renewable energy at a single moment in time by 2025.

The one thing I'll caution is that it's important that it's understood that being able to have 100% renewable energy on an instantaneous basis is very different to actually having 100% renewables in total.

I'm sure you know that and so does AEMO but I have visions of the general public, especially those more politically inclined, reading it to mean that we can close all coal 4 years from now. That's not the reality or the aim - the aim is to be able to use the wind and solar we have in full which, on occasion, will mean 100% but not constantly. That'll come later (but it will happen....).

 

[sptrawler]

I would hope people on the forum aren't that silly @Smurf1976 , I actually think with all the information and insight you have given into how the grid works, many on the forum are now some of the best informed of the general public.

It sounds to me that the AEMO will be fast tracking transmission upgrades, to facilitate the building and grid access of more renewable projects.
The established generators are really going to be put under pressure, they will really have to take an analytical view of their generation portfolio and make some cold commercial decisions.

Like in W.A, Kwinana power station has transitioned from 6 steam turbines that could operate on multiple fuels, to 4 modern gas turbines.
Im sure when the remaining obsolete plant is demolished, more gas turbines will be installed, the time is ripe to make the adjustment.
If the established generators don't use this window of opportunity, they will struggle to remain viable IMO.

Whether they use the sites as battery storage facilities and make use of the switchyard infrastructure, or convert the sites to HEGT generators, will be the question. The fact is steam plant is rapidly becoming an albatross and that problem is going to get worse as renewables gain access, worrying times for some.

 

[Smurf1976]

I would hope people on the forum arent that silly.

I wasn't referring to the forum, just in general.

I can foresee Joe Average random member of the public reading the newspaper article and thinking great, 4 years from now we can be fully renewable.

Then along comes 2025 and they're somewhere between wondering why it didn't happen through to marching down the street about it.

My point being that failing to understand detail and nuance has been a big problem in all of this. The general public reads that something is good, bad or whatever and doesn't grasp that this applies only to a particular context.

That's been an ongoing problem in all of this, getting the public's mind around the idea that something works in one context but not in another. Air-conditioning is the classic example - in one context it's the problem, in a different context it's the single greatest energy saving device ever invented. I realised long ago that many people in practice can't get their mind around that, missing the point that it depends entirely on what the question is.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes good point, the general public believe what they want to believe and the media feeds it.

 

[Smurf1976]

It's only a small power grid but Flinders Island (Tas) is running on 100% wind power at the moment:

 

[Belli]

So is King Island. Windy places.

 

[Knobby22]

It's only a small power grid but Flinders Island (Tas) is running on 100% wind power at the moment:

View attachment 127531

Love flywheels.
So mechanical, use of inertia, a visible proof of Newtonian physics.

 

[basilio]

New breakthroughs in battery design - in Australia !

‘Lightbulb moment’: the battery technology invented in a Brisbane garage that is going global​

Dominic Spooner’s startup Vaulta is working on a reusable battery casing to create less waste and a lighter product

‘Batteries will change our lives in ways that we’re maybe not even totally aware of’: Dominic Spooner in the Brisbane garage that’s home to his startup Vaulta. Photograph: David Kelly/The Guardian

Ben Smee

@BenSmee
Sun 18 Jul 2021 06.00 AEST
Last modified on Sun 18 Jul 2021 06.01 AEST

As some of the world’s largest companies invest billions to advance battery technology, Dominic Spooner has been working at solving the next problem: the impact of unwieldy – and environmentally unfriendly – battery casings.
Spooner runs his lightweight battery casing technology firm Vaulta from a shared garage in Brisbane’s north. “Batteries will change our lives in ways that we’re maybe not even totally aware of, but … we can create our own new group of problems if we’re not careful,” he says.

From a workspace surrounded by packing boxes and other junk, like an old door, Spooner and his team have caught global attention.


Read more
This year Vaulta has signed agreements with aerospace and car battery companies, including one with Braille Battery – an American manufacturer of ultra-lightweight batteries for Nascar, IndyCar and the Australian Supercars.

Last month the company received a $297,500 federal grant to commercialise its technology.

‘Lightbulb moment’: the battery technology invented in a Brisbane garage that is going global

Dominic Spooner’s startup Vaulta is working on a reusable battery casing to create less waste and a lighter product

www.theguardian.com

Vaulta - High Performance Batteries for Sustainable Energy

Discover Vaulta's high-performance batteries for sustainable energy solutions. Revolutionising power with easy installation, maintenance, and recycling. Join the Australian-made energy revolution today!

www.vaulta.com.au

 

[mullokintyre]

A US company has made claims about a breakthrough in battery storage that not only is cheaper, but can discharge for a number of days.
And it uses Iron, one of the most abundant, cheap materials around.
From Todays OZ

A four-year-old US start-up says it has built an inexpensive battery that can discharge power for days using one of the most common elements on Earth: iron.
Form Energy’s batteries are far too heavy for electric cars. But it says they will be capable of solving one of the most elusive problems facing renewable energy: cheaply storing large amounts of electricity to power grids when the sun isn’t shining and wind isn’t blowing.

The work of the Massachusetts company has long been shrouded in secrecy and nondisclosure agreements. It recently shared its progress with The Wall Street Journal, saying it wants to make regulators and utilities aware that if all continues to go according to plan, its iron-air batteries will be capable of affordable, long-duration power storage by 2025.
On a recent tour of Form’s windowless laboratory, Mr Jaramillo gestured to barrels filled with low-cost iron pellets as its key advantage in the rapidly evolving battery space. Its prototype battery, nicknamed Big Jim, is filled with 18,000 pebble-size grey pieces of iron, an abundant, non-toxic and nonflammable mineral.

For a lithium-ion battery cell, the workhorse of electric vehicles and today’s grid-scale batteries, the nickel, cobalt, lithium and manganese minerals used currently cost between $US50 and $US80 per kilowatt-hour of storage, according to analysts.

Using iron, Form believes it will spend less than $US6 per kilowatt-hour of storage on materials for each cell. Packaging the cells together into a full battery system will raise the price to less than $US20 per kilowatt-hour, a level at which academics have said renewables plus storage could fully replace traditional fossil-fuel-burning power plants.

A battery capable of cheaply discharging power for days has been a holy grail in the energy industry, due to the problem that it solves and the potential market it creates.

Given the size and weight of the battery, its unlikely that it will be suitable for mobile devices such as cars etc, but in a static environment like home storage, EV filling stations, mains supply backup, industrial supply, it would be ideal.
Lets hope that it scales up to something big, even bigger than Big Jim.
Mick

 

[Value Collector]

This gas caper is getting somewhat out of hand.

Spot price right now:

Sydney = $29.78 / GJ
Victoria = $26.11 / GJ
Adelaide = $21.00 / GJ forecast to reach $28.00 tomorrow

At those prices it's cheaper to burn diesel than gas and in Sydney well you could run a boiler using petrol and it'd be cheaper which is really getting quite ridiculous.

Earlier this year around $6 was the norm.

Financially well I do wonder if anyone's doing the proverbial "swimming naked" and either losing or making serious $? There’s quite a price shock going on right now for those who aren’t hedged.

Hi Smurf.

just a general question.

I have noticed over the last week or so Tasmania’s spot price is often negative.

Is there a reason for this? Is something happening that is out of the ordinary, eg are the releasing water for other non economic reasons and that is causing over production?

 

[Value Collector]

A US company has made claims about a breakthrough in battery storage that not only is cheaper, but can discharge for a number of days.
And it uses Iron, one of the most abundant, cheap materials around.
From Todays OZ

Given the size and weight of the battery, its unlikely that it will be suitable for mobile devices such as cars etc, but in a static environment like home storage, EV filling stations, mains supply backup, industrial supply, it would be ideal.
Lets hope that it scales up to something big, even bigger than Big Jim.
Mick

Tesla’s Chinese made Model 3 uses an Iron based battery, it makes the battery cheaper and is fine for the medium range vehicles, the long range version uses nickel.

I linked a video in the BHP thread today where the explain Iron vs nickel at the 1hr 9min mark in the video

 

[Smurf1976]

I have noticed over the last week or so Tasmania’s spot price is often negative.

Is there a reason for this? Is something happening that is out of the ordinary, eg are the releasing water for other non economic reasons and that is causing over production?

No technical reason that I'm aware of, it was a purely economic thing at the time.

Early hours of Tuesday 20th July there was extremely high wind generation in Victoria plus wind running at its technical limit in SA, the combined effect of which pushed the price in Victoria significantly negative.

Hydro Tas has basically set up its own offer prices such that this scenario extends the price crash to Tasmania in terms of the spot price but still maximises flow on Basslink from Vic to Tas, thus conserving water in storage and, bonus, being paid to take supply from Victoria.

That's driven by technical circumstances but it's a financial / business strategy as such to allow that to happen. Nothing stops HT from simply not offering any prices below $x which would avoid that local price crash if they wanted to.

Why price low? In short Hydro Tas doesn't really lose much by doing so indeed long term there's likely a gain.

First because the vast majority of sales within Tas are under contract either directly to heavy industry or to retailers for on sale to business and the public and those are at fixed prices.

Second because it's no secret that HT is playing the long game in terms of its own viability and that of industry and consumers in general. Pricing too high is an own goal in that regard.

For the other negative prices in Tas this week, they occurred when prices in Victoria were high and of significance, commenced immediately after the failure of Newport power station (Vic) just after 5pm on the 21st.

HT would likely have been delivering (physically) into a pre-arranged financial contract with another party there (in Victoria) and the surest way to ensure AEMO dispatches generation right up to the technical limits is to price it cheaply.

The basic purpose of such contracts is insurance. Eg Company A and B both have contracts with each other which enable one to call on the others' spare capacity at an agreed (fairly low) price in the event of plant failure. Physically that makes no difference, since AEMO will dispatch available generation without considering who owns it, but it provides a mechanism to protect the companies financially from the spot price.

Newport has since returned to normal operation, running from about 7am - 10:30 pm yesterday and about 6:30am - 9:30pm today (normal operation, it operates intermittently which is its intended function).

 

[basilio]

A US company has made claims about a breakthrough in battery storage that not only is cheaper, but can discharge for a number of days.
And it uses Iron, one of the most abundant, cheap materials around.

This story is certainly the current Big One in terms of energy impact. Appears as if they have persuaded some serious money to invest in their project.
I would love to see independent evidence of their success in reversing rust on some sort of practical scale.

Having said that, there are a swathe of technologies that also claim to have discovered the Holy Grail energy storage. And perhaps they are all on the money.

World's cheapest energy storage will be an iron-air battery, says Jeff Bezos-backed start-up | Recharge

Secretive US start-up Form Energy finally reveals the chemistry of its revolutionary long-duration battery — which it says will store energy at one tenth the cost of lithium-ion

www.rechargenews.com

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[basilio]

Tesla’s Chinese made Model 3 uses an Iron based battery, it makes the battery cheaper and is fine for the medium range vehicles, the long range version uses nickel.

Interesting. Does this battery use the same technology as proposed by Form Energy ? Or is it a different process?

 

[Value Collector]

Interesting. Does this battery use the same technology as proposed by Form Energy ? Or is it a different process?

I don’t know much about form energy Tech, But the Tesla one just basically uses Iron in the cathode rather than nickel of cobolt.

The reason for this is Cost, But each metal has a trade off.

Eg, Nickel is higher energy density, but it’s less stable than cobolt and more expensive than Iron.

Cobolt is more stable than nickel, but it is more expensive than both nickel and Iron.

Iron is the cheapest and most stable, but it is less energy dense, meaning batteries need to be bigger and heavy to hold the same energy.

All three batteries are still lithium ion batteries.

apparently the Iron based cathodes also degrade slower, and can be held at 100% charge without increasing degradation, where as Tesla doesn’t recommend keeping your car more than 90% charged on the daily, unless you need that extra charge and will be driving the car within a few hours.