The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

I know you meant N/A as naturally aspirated

Yep, naturally aspirated so no turbo.

 

[sptrawler]

As I said I think W.A will surprise everyone with the transition to renewables.

Western Australia eyes massive 100GW of wind and solar for green hydrogen by 2030

Western Australia government is eyeing up to 100GW of new wind and solar to drive green hydrogen by 2030, and double that amount by 2040.

reneweconomy.com.au

From the article:
The Western Australian government says the state could play host to a stunning total of 100 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity to produce green hydrogen by 2030, and could double that number by 2040.

The staggering numbers were cited in a speech last week by the state’s hydrogen industry minister Alannah MacTiernan – and to put them in context, WA currently has less than one gigawatt of wind and solar capacity and the entire country has barely more than 10GW of operating large scale wind and solar.

“With current and planned projects under consideration we could see Western Australia produce up to 100 gigawatt (sic) of renewable energy for hydrogen in the next 10 years, which could increase to 200 gigawatt by 2040,” MacTiernan says in her speech to the local CEDA branch.

“By comparison the size of the entire stationary Australian energy market today is only at around 70 gigawatts.”

 

[Knobby22]

$600 million will be spent by the Federal Government to build a government owned gas powered plant at Kurri Kurri NSW.
The most interesting point for me, made by the Energy Minister Angus Taylor on the ABC, is that the plant will be designed to allow simple conversion to Hydrogen Power in the future.

 

[SirRumpole]

$600 million will be spent by the Federal Government to build a government owned gas powered plant at Kurri Kurri NSW.
The most interesting point for me, made by the Energy Minister Angus Taylor on the ABC, is that the plant will be designed to allow simple conversion to Hydrogen Power in the future.

Good idea.

Some of us have been saying this should have happened long ago.

 

[sptrawler]

Good idea.

Some of us have been saying this should have happened long ago.

A good article in the AGE to day, when you cut through all the vested interests and journalistic fluff, a couple of points nail it.
It is as we have been saying, also Labor don't want to wedge themselves into saying it shouldn't be built, they also know the Government is going to have to build the firming capacity.
Also as we have said, in the end the dispatchable component, will probably have to be Government owned as it will only be there as backup generation, the last couple of paragraphs indicates that will be the likely result.

Morrison’s gas fired power play sparks investment warnings

Australia’s power industry has hit out at the Morrison government’s plan for a taxpayer-funded gas-fired generator as unnecessary market intervention.

www.theage.com.au

From the article:
Australia’s power industry has hit out at the Morrison government’s plan for a taxpayer-funded gas-fired generator, describing it as an unnecessary market intervention that risks derailing vital future investments needed to transition the energy grid.

The decision came after Mr Taylor’s repeated threats that the government would develop its own generator if private industry failed to commit to building 1000 megawatts of additional generation capacity by April 30. Mr Taylor insists that amount of “dispatchable” power – such as gas plants or batteries – is necessary to keep a lid on power bills once AGL closes its Liddell coal-fired power plant in 2023.

But Grattan Institute energy program director Tony Wood said the Liddell report used old data and was already outdated, with NSW wholesale prices falling to $39 a megawatt hour for the first quarter of this year.
The Kurri Kurri plant flooding the market with government-funded dispatchable power would not reduce prices long term, but could force private generators out, Mr Wood said.
“This puts more pressure on Bayswater and Eraring (black coal plants). They could be left saying ‘we can’t survive’.”

The Morrison government looks set to try to wedge the Labor party over its position on gas - which is opposed by many from its left faction and welcomed by many on the right.

Labor climate change and energy spokesman Chris Bowen said he supported gas as a back-up for renewables, but the Kurri Kurri project “isn’t justified by the economics”.

Australia Institute’s climate and energy program director Richie Merzian said the government’s investment in Kurri Kurri marks a real turning point for the energy market as the world moves to lower emissions.
“You’ll struggle to find a fossil fuel project that will stand on its own two legs given the projections from the conservative International Energy Agency around the competitiveness of these projects in a future that meets the Paris Agreement obligations,” Mr Merzian said.

 

[basilio]

I have been highlighting the achievements of Alkaline Fuel Cells (AFC ) in producing a cost effective hydrogen fuel cell that does not require highly refined Hydrogen. Big deal that last point becasue it means the fuel cell will run off ammonia that has been split up while other cells can't be.

It is this capacity that see AFC eyeing off the $20B diesel generator market as one of its targets for commercial viability.

UK fuel cell company AFC Energy targets $20 billion diesel genset market ​

Highlights
Alkaline technology good fit for ammonia
Ammonia denser, cheaper to transport
Construction, EV charge, maritime applications

• Author
• Henry Edwardes-Evans
• Editor

AFC Energy is targeting the $20 billion diesel generator market with its alkaline fuel cell technology, capable of running on lower grades of hydrogen including from commercial ammonia, company CEO Adam Bond told S&P Global Platts on May 10.

The UK company has international partnerships with ABB, Acciona, Altaaqa, Extreme E and now international constructor Mace Group, with applications of its technology focused on power generation using hydrogen cracked from ammonia on-site.
"The use cases for all of the biggest green or blue hydrogen projects today are focused on the production of ammonia", Bond said.

UK fuel cell company AFC Energy targets $20 billion diesel genset market

AFC Energy is targeting the $20 billion diesel generator market with its alkaline fuel cell technology, capable of running on lower grades of hydrogen including from commercial ammonia, company CEO Ad

www.spglobal.com

 

[Smurf1976]

Major incident in Queensland happening at the moment has shed about a third of the state's load.

Callide B and C power stations both off completely. Prior to the incident B had 1 (of 2) units on and C had 2/2 on.

At Gladstone power station 3 units tripped, 2 still on at full output. Other one was already off anyway.

I don't have details but there's a fire at Callide power station.

Short term focus is put the lights back on, doing of which is going to be somewhat difficult but will happen indeed it's already underway.

 

[sptrawler]

Major incident in Queensland happening at the moment has shed about a third of the state's load.

Callide B and C power stations both off completely. Prior to the incident B had 1 (of 2) units on and C had 2/2 on.

At Gladstone power station 3 units tripped, 2 still on at full output. Other one was already off anyway.

I don't have details but there's a fire at Callide power station.

Short term focus is put the lights back on, doing of which is going to be somewhat difficult but will happen indeed it's already underway.

Well that is interesting, the general public are being asked to reduce power usage and to expect rolling blackouts, how many MW of generation have been lost @Smurf1976 ?

How many MW of generation will be lost when Liddel shuts down in two years? Experts are saying a 700MW brand new station of dispatchable power isn't required. ? ? ?

Can't wait to see how the 'experts' explain it to the voters, who have to sit in the dark.

This wont hurt Scomos re election campaign at all.

 

[Humid]

Government-run gas plant sat idle despite soaring electricity prices

Plans to build a new $600 million gas plant are being questioned after Snowy Hydro revealed it isn't making full use of its existing gas plant.

thenewdaily.com.au

 

[Smurf1976]

Well that is interesting, the general public are being asked to reduce power usage and to expect rolling blackouts, how many MW of generation have been lost @Smurf1976 ?

I don't have all the info but what I do know with certainty is (all times are Queensland time):

At 13:40 everything was normal, output of relevant generating plant as follows:

Callide unit 1 = 0ff
Unit 2 = At full capacity 350 MW
Unit 3 = At full capacity 420 MW
Unit 4 = Operating but not at maximum capacity, was producing 278 MW

That's an unremarkable normal sort of situation for those not aware. One unit's out for maintenance, the other three are running, being early afternoon demand isn't that high so one is turned down. All very routine and unremarkable.

Note that units 1 & 2, also known as B station, were built earlier and separately to units 3 & 4 which are C station. Plant is conventional steam plant using coal as fuel. The B and C terminology comes about due to the previous existence of another, now closed, power station close by "Callide A".

Approximately 13:45 units 3 & 4 tripped.

Unit 2 continued to operate until a second major incident occurred at about 14:10 which took out:

Callide B unit 2

Gladstone power station units 2, 3, 4 (unit 1 was already off, units 5 & 6 remained in operation). These were all "proper" trips requiring a full restart. Gladstone units are 280 MW each, conventional coal-fired steam plant.

Some wind and solar generation at different sites.

3 (of 4) units were on at Stanwell power station (coal) and tripped to house load. In layman's terms that means the machinery kept working as such, everything was still running that should be running, but no electricity was flowing from the power station into the grid. Analogy = car engine's running but the brakes are on and the transmission's in neutral. Turning over and revving the engine but going nowhere. Stanwell units are conventional 350 MW coal-fired steam.

Also about a third of all load in the state was disconnected, including a minor amount of load physically in the far northern parts of NSW but which has always been in Queensland so far as power supply is concerned.

Since then:

Transmission which tripped has been put back into service.

Stanwell power station which remained running as such was rapidly ramped up and along with hydro, gas turbines and supply from NSW was a key source for restoring supply to consumers. The three (of four) units in operation were at full output during the peak period.

Gladstone restart is progressing. Unit 4 is close to full output now, unit 2's about half way there. Unit 3 not going yet however. As those familiar with such things will be well aware, restarting multiple units following a trip is a significant task and one that can't be shortcut - it takes the time it takes basically.

Wind and solar plant is back in operation, albeit without any sun to run it but it's back to normal as such.

Supply during the evening peak was extremely tight with various pre-arranged agreements with industry and the owners of backup (mostly diesel) generators called upon in order to take load off the grid. So that means factories halting production, backup generators being run where they exist and and so on.

Also the general public has been asked to minimise their use of electricity until 21:00

As of now, supply is adequate and the immediate crisis has passed. Diesel generators are being shut down and so on, for the short term supply can meet demand since load drops overnight anyway.

This chart puts it into perspective:

Purple = supply from NSW
Black = coal
Red = diesel & kerosene
Orange = gas
Blue = hydro
Green = wind
Yellow = solar
Below the zero line = hydro pumping in Qld and supply sent to NSW

I don't need to point out when the incident occurred, that's extremely obvious:

Looking ahead, AEMO has forecast a LOR2 (Lack Of Reserves level 2, that's the last step before the lights go out) for tomorrow during the peak but it shouldn't be as tight as it was today unless something else goes wrong. Gladstone restart should be completed by then so that's more supply. Still extremely tight as such however and not a good situation.

Beyond that, it depends on the extent of overall damage and how quickly some production can be resumed at Callide from the undamaged units as well as the performance of other generation sources. Various plant in other states that's undergoing maintenance is being put back into service ASAP which should at least shore up supply in NSW for the short term - there's only a limited ability to transmit that to Qld however. Can't do that indefinitely though, maintenance needs to be done, can't leave it half done indefinitely.

Wind is also being helpful in the other states. It's not doing much in Queensland unfortunately but it's blowing strongly across NSW, Vic and SA and not too badly in Tas. Would be nice if it started blowing in the right places in Qld though, that's where it's really needed.

As for the extent of damage, well I don't have the full details indeed nobody's fully assessed it yet but ultimately it has gone bang, this isn't simply a minor breakdown it's a major incident.

 

[sptrawler]

Government-run gas plant sat idle despite soaring electricity prices

Plans to build a new $600 million gas plant are being questioned after Snowy Hydro revealed it isn't making full use of its existing gas plant.

thenewdaily.com.au

The privates will always get priority, because if they don't, they claim the government is using taxpayer money to send them broke. It is the same in W.A, the government owns most of the generation, but privates get first dibs.
The government is there to provide power if no one else can, a bit of a supplier of last resort and if the government dont put in the 700MW and it is required who will cop the blame? Not the muppets ranting on at the moment.
With electrical generation, it is better to have it and not not need it, rather than to need it and not have it.
It isn't as though 700MW can be just thrown in over a weekend.
Also there is a 2,000MW coal station being taken out of service permanently, the same time the 700MW of gas is coming on.
I can understand the private sector being pizzed, but not as much as the general public will be if there is rolling blackouts, because the 700MW isn't available.
The 700MW is being installed as firming capacity as more renewables come online and more coal is shut down, it will be great if it isn't required to run that will mean the renewables are doing a great job, but if there is a problem having 700MW of standby power covers a lot of eventualities.
It kind of falls under the category of common sense, which these days seems to be in short supply.

From your article @Humid , it kind of sums up the situation, the government units are there to supply the load if no one else can, it isn't there to send the private generators broke.
Quote:
On Tuesday Labor senator Jenny McAllister asked Snowy executives why they failed to supply Colongra’s existing power during these spikes.

Snowy chief operating officer Roger Whitby said the company did respond to an Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecast about the price spike earlier on Monday.

“Our plant and a variety of other plants were offered in the marketplace at $15,000,” he said.

But the AEMO decided not to use the plant as other generators offered cheaper power.

“If there was a critical supply shortage that would have been dispatched, but as it turned out in the midst of all that uncertainty it wasn’t, on the occasion, required,” Mr Whitby said.

 

[Smurf1976]

From your article @Humid , it kind of sums up the situation, the government units are there to supply the load if no one else can, it isn't there to send the private generators broke.

On one hand that's true but on the other, $15,000 per MWh is certainly an incredibly high price.

It comes down to a more fundamental question as to what the intended purpose of government ownership is. That is, is the aim to be a supplier of last resort? Is it to run a profitable business to bring revenue in? Is it to promote a greater good in the community via the provision of cheap energy? Etc.

 

[Knobby22]

On one hand that's true but on the other, $15,000 per MWh is certainly an incredibly high price.

It comes down to a more fundamental question as to what the intended purpose of government ownership is. That is, is the aim to be a supplier of last resort? Is it to run a profitable business to bring revenue in? Is it to promote a greater good in the community via the provision of cheap energy? Etc.

One of the main critiscisms of the plant is that it is only expected to operate very rarely, very poor utilisation.

The taxpayers money will be lost building it and it will continue to lose money operating it, all while Australia is going into a heavy debt.

 

[SirRumpole]

On one hand that's true but on the other, $15,000 per MWh is certainly an incredibly high price.

It comes down to a more fundamental question as to what the intended purpose of government ownership is. That is, is the aim to be a supplier of last resort? Is it to run a profitable business to bring revenue in? Is it to promote a greater good in the community via the provision of cheap energy? Etc.

I find it amusing that the "Left" is now objecting to the construction of government owned generation when they used to be falling over themselves lauding Snowy Hydro, originally all government owned and taxpayer funded.

The purpose of government ownership in my view is to ensure continuity of supply and stability of prices, even if the assets are basically stranded and running at a huge loss.

As @sptrawler said, it's better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it.

The political roles seem to have been completely reversed, the LNP building infrastructure with taxpayers money and Labor bagging them for it.

Mind you, I smell a bit of a rat and I think that if the gas fired station gets built and the LNP remain in power, sooner or later it will be sold off to LNP mates at a heavy discount so they can take consumers for a ride when the opportunity presents.

 

[sptrawler]

On one hand that's true but on the other, $15,000 per MWh is certainly an incredibly high price.

It comes down to a more fundamental question as to what the intended purpose of government ownership is. That is, is the aim to be a supplier of last resort? Is it to run a profitable business to bring revenue in? Is it to promote a greater good in the community via the provision of cheap energy? Etc.

$15,000 per MWh is an incredibly high price as you say, but it was interesting that the article said, private generators offered lower prices and were used.
So in a way I guess it is putting a cap on prices, someone came up with $15,000, which obviously meant the privates had to quote below that.
How they come to the $15,000 figure is the interesting part, it may have been to allow some expensive generation to get some grid time, while at the same time saying $15,000/MWh is the max you can get.
I know over here it gets to the point where the unit has to be put on, or the boiler depressurised and drained or nitrogen sealed, they can't just sit there getting rusty.
I think the government is only there as the supplier of last resort, but they can obviously be used to stop extortionate prices.
As these old coal plants get unreliable and uneconomical, i think the role will reverse as time moves on and the government will have to take over the firming role, as the fossil fuel companies will move over to renewables and storage.

 

[sptrawler]

One of the main critiscisms of the plant is that it is only expected to operate very rarely, very poor utilisation.

The taxpayers money will be lost building it and it will continue to lose money operating it, all while Australia is going into a heavy debt.

The real issue is as renewables and storage come on line, the fossil fueled generators will make bigger and bigger loses, if the Government don't put some at call generation in the privates will just charge more and more for their dispatchable energy to cover the loses.

So really you can just let the privates run their old plant and charge more and more to operate it, while it gets less and less reliable due to its age, but they don't want to replace it as it will eventually be stranded.
Or you can put in some high efficiency gas turbines, that take minutes to ramp up to full load and have them ready to roll if the privates can't meet the demand.

Also at a later date when there is sufficient hydrogen being generated, the turbines could be operated on hydrogen, therefore it would be clean and also it is at call generation, which in reality is as good as having a fully charged 700MW battery on standby it is actually better because it doesn't run flat.
I can't see any down side to it, one of our super duper reporters should put it to Labor, are they going to cancel the gas turbines if they win the election.
My guess is they will build them as well, it is a no brainer really.

 

[Humid]

I find it amusing that the "Left" is now objecting to the construction of government owned generation when they used to be falling over themselves lauding Snowy Hydro, originally all government owned and taxpayer funded.

The purpose of government ownership in my view is to ensure continuity of supply and stability of prices, even if the assets are basically stranded and running at a huge loss.

As @sptrawler said, it's better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it.

The political roles seem to have been completely reversed, the LNP building infrastructure with taxpayers money and Labor bagging them for it.

Mind you, I smell a bit of a rat and I think that if the gas fired station gets built and the LNP remain in power, sooner or later it will be sold off to LNP mates at a heavy discount so they can take consumers for a ride when the opportunity presents.

I think its more whats fueling it and the Liberal party donors benefitting from it

 

[Humid]

And the funding?

 

[sptrawler]

I think its more whats fueling it and the Liberal party donors benefitting from it

I think I read an article, that said they were building a pipeline to a Santos plant.

 

[sptrawler]

One of the main critiscisms of the plant is that it is only expected to operate very rarely, very poor utilisation.

The taxpayers money will be lost building it and it will continue to lose money operating it, all while Australia is going into a heavy debt.

In today's paper, at last someone who is actually stating the facts.
Now when the media wants to ramp, there is something that can be referred to. There are way too many vested interests, that have no accountability for a poor outcome, but have way too much to say in regard to path we follow.
The article pretty well sums up what we have been saying, for quite some time in this thread.
Also the current situation at Callide power station, shows how old dispatchable plant can and does fail, which will become more regular as they age. That's just logical.

Snowy Hydro bosses defend $600m gas plant as key to avoid blackouts

Commonwealth-owned energy company Snowy Hydro has sought to justify the Morrison government’s $600 million investment in building a gas-fired power plant.

www.theage.com.au

From the article:
In response, Snowy Hydro chief operating officer Gordon Wymer on Tuesday insisted criticism of Kurri Kurri overlooked the fact that Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) forecasts for reliability were based on “averages” under which demand was expected to be exceeded once every 10 years.
“The thing about loss of loads – so, blackouts – is that it doesn’t happen around averages, it happens when there is system stress and that is hard to model,” Mr Wymer told an energy conference.

“We’ve spent a huge amount of time peering into the future to see what role Snowy 2.0 and Kurri Kurri will play and one of the key roles is reliability for the 1 or 2 per cent of the time that there is nothing else to keep the lights on.”
Loading
Despite the hastening influx of renewable energy, Mr Wymer said renewable “droughts” – extended periods with inadequate wind and sunlight to fuel renewable energy generators – were “not a theory, they are here”. While big batteries had an important role to play in plugging these gaps, they lacked the scale of dispatchable capacity required, he said.

Dr Wonhas said AEMO had forecasted 150 megawatts of “dispatchable” capacity – assets that can provide on-demand power into the grid – would be required following Liddell’s closure in mid-2023, but acknowledged “that is cutting it fine”.

“If you put more into the system, it will put downward pressure on prices, and that’s what Snowy is attempting to do,” he said. “We don’t complain about dispatchable capacity, we will need more of it.”

Snowy Hydro chief executive Paul Broad said the business case for Kurri Kurri forecast the “internal rate of return is double-digit”. Snowy was in commercially sensitive negotiations for turbines at the plant, Mr Broad said, but he committed to releasing the business case within two months.

Separately, Federal Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor on Wednesday is expected to announce the Hydrogen Industry Mission, a collaboration between government, CSIRO and industry to drive commercial research and development into hydrogen fuel and attract $68 million in combined investment.