The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

Like that one.

Seriously, the whole issue isn't so much a question of what the policy is but of getting some certainty.

The industry can live with a focus on gas and it could live with 100% renewables but there's real caution when it comes to the uncertainty and politics surrounding the whole thing.

I think the problem is, that gas is required as a stop gap, until there is enough renewables and storage available to not require fossil fuel as a backup.
Until that position is reached, gas is the cleanest and most efficient option.

 

[sptrawler]

This debate shows actually how screwed up Australia is, Morrison said he wants everyone in Australia to be vaccinated by the end of the year, now that can't be achieved because of things outside of his control, he is lambasted.

But in the same breath, when he says he wants Australia to be carbon zero as soon as possible, he is told to make a date. How can he do that without knowing what technical limitations may eventuate.

To me it just shows a country being driven by media agenda, which in itself is biased by advertising and journalistic leanings.

Australia certainly hasn't become the clever country, more like the morning show driven, mindless Country IMO.

 

[Humid]

Front of the queue
bahahahaha

 

[Smurf1976]

If as you say market players have fossil fuel, pumped hydro and battery developments ready to go, why would gas be a problem, one it is a limited supply and two pumped hydro and batteries are cost positive as proven in S.A.

Best way I can put it is with a very real example:

AGL announced in April 2015, that's six years ago, that Liddell power station would be closing.

Consequences of that announcement have been a six year, and still ongoing, argument with the federal government that has been extremely visible to the public and at its worst point came to the point of outright threats against the company.

No other participant in the industry wants to go down that track or anything even remotely close to it.

Hence Alinta literally blew Northern power station up with explosives to preclude any arguing about is fate, Engie waited for the state government to give them an ultimatum over Hazelwood on safety grounds and shut it at the last possible moment while Energy Australia have sought political cover in the form of a 7 year deal with the Victorian state government.

It's one thing for a company to make the wrong investment decision and lose money or to make the right decision and beat the competition. That's just capitalism at work. It's quite another thing to end up in a serious fight with the national government over it however.

Overall I'm not overly keen on the current structure of having so many different owners, so many regulators of things and so on given that, from a technical perspective, it's all ultimately the one system. That structure does add a lot of complexity and headaches at getting things done.

It is what it is however, it's the actual industry structure we have and it was governments that created it, so the need is to get on with it and make it work. Otherwise, if that doesn't happen, well then at some point the old clunkers one by one will come to the end of their operable lives and then we really do have a very serious problem, the lights really will go out.

What I'm really saying is the issue needs to be de-politicised. The whole thing's gone on for over a decade now and needs to stop, the politicians need to find something else to spend their days arguing over and just get on with what needs to be done with energy as there's stuff all time left.

I'm not against the concept of building a gas turbine station in NSW or even that government owns it. Just want to see an end to the political circus surrounding the whole thing.

To the point on that one - Snowy submitted the plans for 2 x 375 MW open cycle gas turbines a few months ago now and are looking to start construction early 2022.

As for supply reliability - best that can be said there is "it's a gamble". Stuff all reserve margin and relying on generating plant that's largely from the 1970's and 80's is definite cause for concern but on the other hand, if new things can actually be built well then that does fix the problem. It's thus a gamble in regards to timing and sequence of events. Could get lucky, could be very unlucky.....

 

[sptrawler]

More great news for Australia's renewable sector, an Australian specific BMS(battery management system), to be developed here for grid connected batteries.

Energy Renaissance, CSIRO join forces on “defence grade” battery management system

Company behind Australian battery giga-factory has joined forces with the CSIRO and IMCRC to develop a home gown, “defence grade” battery management system.

reneweconomy.com.au

From the article:
The energy storage hopeful behind plans to build Australia’s first gigawatt-scale lithium-ion battery factory has joined forces with the CSIRO to develop a home gown, “defence grade” battery management system, or BMS.
Energy Renaissance, which is this year building a $28 million solar powered battery plant in Tomago, New South Wales, said on Thursday that it was also jointly funding a $A1.46 million BMS project with Australia’s national science agency and the Innovative Manufacturing CRC (IMCRC).

The BMS, which acts as the “nerve centre” of the battery and is critical to its operating efficiency, will monitor and report on the battery’s usage, lifespan and faults through a mobile network to Energy Renaissance and its customers.

Communicating through an inverter, the system will also enable secure real time data, analytics and remote management to drive down risk of failure and operating costs for grid-scale energy storage users.

Energy Renaissance’s director of technology and development, Brian Criaghead, said the BMS project meant that the company could offer customers a complete and uncomplicated plug-and-play battery energy storage solution that was put together in Australia, for the Australian market.

“The collaboration between Energy Renaissance, CSIRO, and IMCRC will promote an Australian Battery Management System instead of relying on an overseas technology platform,” Craighead said.
The CSIRO, which is developing the software underpinning the BMS, is working to three key goals: to make the Energy Renaissance batteries safer, more affordable and optimised to operate in high temperature environments.

Adam Best, a principal research scientist at CSIRO, has been seconded to work with Energy Renaissance on the project.

 

[sptrawler]

On a more holistic note, it sounds as though the States are starting to get their act together, in co ordinating the shift from State fossil fueled generation, to a renewable platform.

Cross-sector Energy Council to guide Queensland shift to renewables

Queensland joins NSW and Victorian in establishing a new, cross-sector body to collaborate and advise on state’s shift to 50% renewables by 2030.

reneweconomy.com.au

From the artcle:
“By establishing a Ministerial Energy Council, our government can leverage our foundational assets as a basis from which to harness the additional capacity of renewables to deliver real outcomes for Queenslanders,” he said.

“Renewable energy and transmission, manufacturing, resources and electrifying transport have the capacity to create 570,000 Australian jobs in the next five years.”

The move by Queensland to establish a separate, cross sector collaborative body follows similar moves by other states, as they gear up to establish new Renewable Energy Zones and meet ambitious electricity generation and climate targets.

On Wednesday, the NSW Liberal government announced the establishment of its first Renewable Energy Sector Board, bringing together energy sector representatives to provide advice on the job creation and manufacturing opportunities being created by the shift to renewables.
And last week, the Victorian Labor government announced the creation of a new body called VicGrid, in this case to oversee and manage the suite of network investments required to accommodate the gigawatts of big solar and wind joining the state’s grid.

For Queensland’s new body, de Brenni said one of the first items on the agenda would be a discussion around how best to establish a fully functional and commercial hydrogen supply chain in the state, while also helping to deliver Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy.

“With state-owned energy generators and ports, the levers are uniquely in Queenslanders hands to generate hydrogen to enable a renewable energy future for our nation,” he said.

“At the next meeting of Energy Ministers, I’ll be asking for a greater focus on the role of hydrogen in the future of Australia’s energy security.”

 

[SirRumpole]

On a more holistic note, it sounds as though the States are starting to get their act together, in co ordinating the shift from State fossil fueled generation, to a renewable platform.

Cross-sector Energy Council to guide Queensland shift to renewables

Queensland joins NSW and Victorian in establishing a new, cross-sector body to collaborate and advise on state’s shift to 50% renewables by 2030.

reneweconomy.com.au

From the artcle:
“By establishing a Ministerial Energy Council, our government can leverage our foundational assets as a basis from which to harness the additional capacity of renewables to deliver real outcomes for Queenslanders,” he said.

“Renewable energy and transmission, manufacturing, resources and electrifying transport have the capacity to create 570,000 Australian jobs in the next five years.”

The move by Queensland to establish a separate, cross sector collaborative body follows similar moves by other states, as they gear up to establish new Renewable Energy Zones and meet ambitious electricity generation and climate targets.

On Wednesday, the NSW Liberal government announced the establishment of its first Renewable Energy Sector Board, bringing together energy sector representatives to provide advice on the job creation and manufacturing opportunities being created by the shift to renewables.
And last week, the Victorian Labor government announced the creation of a new body called VicGrid, in this case to oversee and manage the suite of network investments required to accommodate the gigawatts of big solar and wind joining the state’s grid.

For Queensland’s new body, de Brenni said one of the first items on the agenda would be a discussion around how best to establish a fully functional and commercial hydrogen supply chain in the state, while also helping to deliver Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy.

“With state-owned energy generators and ports, the levers are uniquely in Queenslanders hands to generate hydrogen to enable a renewable energy future for our nation,” he said.

“At the next meeting of Energy Ministers, I’ll be asking for a greater focus on the role of hydrogen in the future of Australia’s energy security.”

There seems to be a lot of new "bodies" being set up.

One hopes that there will be some actions not just more hot air.

 

[sptrawler]

There seems to be a lot of new "bodies" being set up.

One hopes that there will be some actions not just more hot air.

Well it is the only way, the States can come to an agreement on what priority and what order the coal plants can be closed.
I think it is a great move and should pave the way for an orderly transition.
The State bodies, dealing with the AEMO as to the best technical approach, will definitely produce the best outcome IMO.
It is so much better than the States having a random approach, based on a desired political and business outcome and focused on a State view rather than a grid view.

 

[rederob]

Like i said 90% of the problem IMO, is the media coverage is based on political/ environmental bias and presenting flawed information.

That really depends on what you read.
The political bias is clear: it favours gas.
Gas is needed as a stop gap, but that's it.
Battery storage plus wind/solar will be cheaper than gas in a matter of years.
The problem is not the media, it's the troglodytes that haven't got our energy policy in order since coming to power.

 

[sptrawler]

That really depends on what you read.
The political bias is clear: it favours gas.
Gas is needed as a stop gap, but that's it.
Battery storage plus wind/solar will be cheaper than gas in a matter of years.

Spot on, but you can add hydro and pumped storage to that also.

 

[Smurf1976]

There seems to be a lot of new "bodies" being set up.

One hopes that there will be some actions not just more hot air.

Short answer is the whole thing has slowly but surely crept back toward a centrally planned approach but nobody's going to come out and directly announce that.

Every state (including the NT and ACT) has now effectively stepped in to control the market one way or another. The details of what they want to achieve varies but none are taking a "leave it to the market" view.

That said, having a policy doesn't mean the job's done unless you're the one writing the policy. For everyone else it means work can commence and suffice to say there's a lot to be done.

It's not as though we didn't have an LOR1 (Lack Of Reserve level 1) in NSW this evening and it's not as though there aren't 4 open cycle gas turbines in SA running on diesel right at this moment. There's a lot needing to be done.

At midday today for the NEM as a whole (all states except WA and NT):
Coal = 48.9% (12,005 MW)
Solar = 33.4% (8204 MW)
Wind = 9.9% (2433 MW)
Hydro = 6.0% (1466 MW)
Gas = 1.7% (427 MW)

At 6:30pm today:
Coal = 58.2% (15,162 MW)
Hydro = 19.1% (4966 MW)
Gas = 15.2% (3967 MW)
Wind = 7.1% (1861 MW)
Diesel = 0.2% (50 MW)
Batteries = 0.1% (26 MW)

Highest output by source at any time over past day (all times are eastern states time)
Coal = 15,435 MW - right now
Solar = 8303 MW - 11:30am
Hydro = 4966 MW - 6:30pm
Gas = 4210 MW - 7:30pm
Wind = 2910 MW - 2:30pm
Diesel = 86 MW - 8:00pm
Battery discharge = 75 MW - 6:00am

Total energy generated over past day:
Coal = 339 GWh - 63.1%
Solar = 62 GWh - 11.4%
Hydro = 56 GWh - 10.5%
Wind = 42 GWh - 8.1%
Gas = 37 GWh = 6.9%
Diesel = 0.2 GWh = 0.03%

Figures won't add to exactly 100% due to rounding within the data.

Black = coal
Orange = gas
Red = diesel
Blue = hydro
Green = wind
Yellow = solar

 

[Smurf1976]

Some dramatic swings in the price of natural gas in Victoria over the past two days.

All figures are for the spot price and in AUD per GJ and all times are eastern AEST.

Note that prices are set in time blocks as follows:

06:00 - 10:00
10:00 - 14:00
14:00 - 18:00
18:00 - 22:00
22:00 - 06:00 the following day.

So 4 hourly intervals except overnight which is an 8 hour period.

17 April at 6:00 am = $5.95 which is pretty normal, it's been around that +/- a few % for a while now.

...

19 April 22:00 - 20 April 06:00 = $7.10

20 April 06:00 - 10:00 = $6.35

20 April 10:00 - 14:00 = $6.60

20 April 14:00 - 18:00 = $7.50

20 April 18:00 - 22:00 = $21.99

20 April 22:00 - 21 April 06:00 = $19.85

21 April 06:00 - 10:00 = $8.20

21 April 10:00 - 14:00 = $21.00

21 April 14:00 - 18:00 = $10.43

21 April 18:00 - 22:00 = $9.05

21 April 22:00 - present = $19.84

If anyone's looking for a volatile market well there's one.

Whilst that's the spot market and most actual gas sales will be under some form of contract, it's nonetheless dramatic volatility compared to what's normal.

I haven't looked into the reasons but there's nothing particularly obvious, there is some storage capacity unable to discharge at present (Iona) but there's unused production capacity available at Longford (Vic) and via pipeline from Qld into SA and NSW (noting that they're both connected to Vic) so no actual physical shortage.

In terms of practical effects, well one is that some power generation did switch to oil-based fuels either in the same plant, or by running oil-fired plant in preference to gas-fired plant. Oil in this context meaning anything refined from petroleum - diesel, kerosene, fuel oil etc.

Data source = Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).

 

[rederob]

Some dramatic swings in the price of natural gas in Victoria over the past two days.

All figures are for the spot price and in AUD per GJ and all times are eastern AEST.

Note that prices are set in time blocks as follows:

06:00 - 10:00
10:00 - 14:00
14:00 - 18:00
18:00 - 22:00
22:00 - 06:00 the following day.

So 4 hourly intervals except overnight which is an 8 hour period.

17 April at 6:00 am = $5.95 which is pretty normal, it's been around that +/- a few % for a while now.

...

19 April 22:00 - 20 April 06:00 = $7.10

20 April 06:00 - 10:00 = $6.35

20 April 10:00 - 14:00 = $6.60

20 April 14:00 - 18:00 = $7.50

20 April 18:00 - 22:00 = $21.99

20 April 22:00 - 21 April 06:00 = $19.85

21 April 06:00 - 10:00 = $8.20

21 April 10:00 - 14:00 = $21.00

21 April 14:00 - 18:00 = $10.43

21 April 18:00 - 22:00 = $9.05

21 April 22:00 - present = $19.84

If anyone's looking for a volatile market well there's one.

Whilst that's the spot market and most actual gas sales will be under some form of contract, it's nonetheless dramatic volatility compared to what's normal.

I haven't looked into the reasons but there's nothing particularly obvious, there is some storage capacity unable to discharge at present (Iona) but there's unused production capacity available at Longford (Vic) and via pipeline from Qld into SA and NSW (noting that they're both connected to Vic) so no actual physical shortage.

In terms of practical effects, well one is that some power generation did switch to oil-based fuels either in the same plant, or by running oil-fired plant in preference to gas-fired plant. Oil in this context meaning anything refined from petroleum - diesel, kerosene, fuel oil etc.

Data source = Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).

So much for this:

Government accused of pressuring experts who questioned its gas-fired recovery plan​

 

[SirRumpole]

Federal government to build gas power station in the Hunter Valley.

About time.

Federal government set to build taxpayer-funded gas-fired power plant

The Federal government is set to build a taxpayer-funded gas-fired power plant in the Hunter region of NSW, in what would be a major intervention in the electricity market.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Humid]

Federal government to build gas power station in the Hunter Valley.

About time.

Federal government set to build taxpayer-funded gas-fired power plant

The Federal government is set to build a taxpayer-funded gas-fired power plant in the Hunter region of NSW, in what would be a major intervention in the electricity market.

www.abc.net.au

Can you imagine the NBN if it was built by the private sector lol

 

[Smurf1976]

Federal government to build gas power station in the Hunter Valley.

From an engineering and electricity supply perspective there's a definite need for more dispatchable generating capacity so I'm not going to object to government or anyone else building some.

On the other hand there' a very real issue in regard to climate change and the response to it which really needs some direction from government as to what the industry ought to be doing there. It is, after all, government that'll be committing Australia to whatever action is taken.

Government really needs to make its mind up on relevant matters, in particular:

A. The whole issue of climate, emissions, and everything relating to it. Come up with a policy and stick to it.

B. What role does the federal government intend having in the power industry long term? That is, is the industry being effectively nationalised or not?

There wouldn't be too many industries involving companies valued in the $ billions where 3 CEO's quit in the space of week after all.

Stanwell Corporation, AGL and Energy Australia bosses all have announced their resignation in recent days, in one case effective immediately.

In the case of Stanwell Corp that's an effective forced resignation after calling it how he sees it with the shift away from coal. https://www.theguardian.com/austral...tor-after-energy-minister-complained-to-board

Not exactly a well kept secret that a couple of others have abruptly moved on due to conflict with the states or federal government either.

I'm not taking sides politically there, just saying the whole issue needs to be settled and the uncertainty brought to an end.

 

[sptrawler]

Well we have being saying there isn't any money to be made cycling coal plant, so it becomes a case of renewables and storage, or HEGT's IMO.

So as we have already said, it is between a rock and a hard place, the companies have to decide they know that the ultimate goal is zero emissions.

My guess is the fossil fueled generation will end up government owned, as they will eventually become a stranded assets and the major generators will have to decide how they transition out of fossil fuel.
Probably some gas plant will be bought by the State government's, if it is suitable and serviceable.
Interesting times.

 

[SirRumpole]

Well we have being saying there isn't any money to be made cycling coal plant, so it becomes a case of renewables and storage, or HEGT's IMO.

So as we have already said, it is between a rock and a hard place, the companies have to decide they know that the ultimate goal is zero emissions.

My guess is the fossil fueled generation will end up government owned, as they will eventually become a stranded assets and the major generators will have to decide how they transition out of fossil fuel.
Probably some gas plant will be bought by the State government's, if it is suitable and serviceable.
Interesting times.

Gas stations are probably medium term options until sufficient pumped hydro can be built, although it's obviously an advantage to have gas stations that can be started up quickly when necessary even though they will only run for short periods if all goes well with renewables.

As Smurf alluded to , the political aspects of power supply have to be nutted out.

Ca we really say that the "free market" has solved all the power supply/pricing issues ?

No in my opinion.

Private enterprise getting hooks into essential services doesn't really work in a market as small as Australia. What we need are some hard headed governments ready to take back responsibility for supplying essential services and not just leaving it to rent seekers.

 

[Humid]

Use public money via Snowy Hydro
Gas from Santos Narrabri field
Santos ask Government to subsidise pipeline
Government appointed chair of Snowy Hydro is ex Santos CEO

 

[sptrawler]

Gas stations are probably medium term options until sufficient pumped hydro can be built, although it's obviously an advantage to have gas stations that can be started up quickly when necessary even though they will only run for short periods if all goes well with renewables.

As Smurf alluded to , the political aspects of power supply have to be nutted out.

Ca we really say that the "free market" has solved all the power supply/pricing issues ?

No in my opinion.

Private enterprise getting hooks into essential services doesn't really work in a market as small as Australia. What we need are some hard headed governments ready to take back responsibility for supplying essential services and not just leaving it to rent seekers.

Spot on Rumpy, it should never have been sold in the first place, people can't manage without electricity so it is an essential service.
Thankfully I'm in W.A. and it is still majority government owned.