The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

Here's the picture that suppliers see:
View attachment 121860
Clearly renewables are the way to go.
That's further backed up by future cost declines:
View attachment 121861
While new build renewable costs are low, without any carbon costs to factor in, and without an HVDC spine to tap into in order to even out the vagaries of wind and sunshine energy inputs, major private sector investments are going to remain thin.

As the top graph states, without storage renewable resources lack dispatchable characteristics and associated benefits of conventional technologies.
Which is the major stumbling block at the moment IMO, as you have already said Snowy 2 is being built, also the second interconnect between Tassie and the mainland is being installed to facilitate storage for renewables. The H.V transmission system is being re configured and new H.V interstate interconnects are being built between NSW, Vic and S.A, there is a new H.V interconnector being installed in North Queensland to facilitate solar farm integration into the grid.
I think the quickest and easiest way to get adequate domestic storage that matches solar installations, is to have the generators supply packages as has been started, whereby the generator installs the battery and solar array and it is paid through the normal billing system, much like purchasing a phone plan.
It would be a much better idea than piece meal installations, by all and sundry, of incompatible equipment. The companies could get some form of tax assistance, the home owner doesn't have to worry about huge upfront costs and there is are overseers to a vertically integrated and controlled roll out.
Just my thoughts.

 

[Smurf1976]

I'm sure smurf would be able to say whether the companies were warned that an over supply situation might occur

I'm somewhat typecast as 'that guy' who's been on about it for a very long time.

I claim no special brilliance there, it just comes down to math.

Solar output from fixed position arrays (eg rooftop) will as a whole peak at midday and that peak will, depending on what assumptions you make about the orientation of panels in the real world, be circa 5 times their average output.

Meanwhile electricity demand at midday is moderate. It's not the minimum but it's nowhere near the peak either. During hot weather the peak of consumption is mid-afternoon. During cold weather it's a bit after 6pm with a secondary peak in the morning circa 8am (exception of Tasmania where the morning peak is the larger of the two). Demand at midday is thus either on the ramp up (hot weather) or is the lull between two peaks (cold weather).

From there it's just straightforward math. Put one solar power system on one roof and it's irrelevant but put more of them up every day and a point comes where it fails to work. Just because getting 10% of annual generation from solar is easy, doesn't mean you can just install ten times as many panels and get 100%. A point comes where that approach stops working.

Now for the painful and brutally honest bit, rooftop solar has a lot in common with using trucks to move freight.

If you want to move small amounts of whatever well then just buying some trucks and driving them on existing public roads is a perfectly reasonable way to do it.

If however you want to move millions of tonnes of freight each year well then no, buying a lot of trucks, widening all the roads and turning the town's main street into a highway starts to become a dud idea. Better off building a railway line that goes around the town not through it in that case or using some other method to move the freight (for one of the more unusual, iron ore from a mine in Tasmania is transported by pipeline, not a single truck or train involved from the mine to the pelletizing plant 85km away).

Now for a couple of charts:

Rooftop solar generation in Queensland over the past 3 days:

Yellow is solar output, red line at the bottom is market spot price.

Now for large scale solar farms in Queensland over the same period:

Large solar farms intentionally located in places highly suited to them, and with single axis trackers on the panels, achieve a far more consistent output day to day, and throughout the day, than do fixed position panels on house roofs with sub-optimal orientation and no tracking.

A small large scale facilities is also much more easily adjusted to match consumption versus trying to fine tune the output of a few million tiny systems each subject to their own issues with shading, weather and so on.

Note last Friday and Saturday, and for shorter periods Tuesday and Wednesday this week, for large scale solar in SA:

It can be and routinely is cut back when the full output simply isn't required. In that regard it's just as controllable as any other power station.

Where all that goes is that putting solar panels on house roofs makes perfectly good sense so long as it can make use of existing infrastructure, akin to using trucks to move modest amounts of freight on existing roads.

Once it comes to having to upgrade electricity networks though, well it's much like freight. A separate large scale option is a cheaper way of doing it. In this case, that's a few large solar farms and transmission lines.

In that context it needs to be remembered that in Australia it's the "electricity" bit which is valuable not the "rooftop". If there's one thing we're really not short on, it's land that's not useful for much. The only reason to put panels on a roof, instead of putting them somewhere else, is to make use of the electrical infrastructure that's already present, that the house is connected to the network. All good but once it comes to the point of having to spend a fortune upgrading the network, well it's cheaper to put them somewhere else where that problem doesn't exist, near a transmission line, rather than having to spend all that $ on upgrading a network to cope with power flowing in the opposite direction.

For that reason I've long maintained that we'll get to roughly 50% of homes with solar then that's it, the economics preclude sensibly going any further. On a state by state basis at present (data is from late 2020, exact date varies between states):

Queensland = 39.8%
SA = 39.3%
WA = 32.2%
NSW = 24.6%
NT = 22.8%
Victoria = 20.9%
Tasmania = 16.3%

That said there are state-specific issues which will influence the limits:

Queensland and Tasmania both have a relatively consistent electrical load overall which facilitates a higher use of solar in those states.

SA, Vic, WA all have the basic problem of a network that wasn't built with high capacity and a highly variable load which tends to be low when solar output is high. That's not a good situation and limits the deployment of solar in those states. Tasmania's the opposite - high network capacity per customer and relatively more stable demand.

NSW and Queensland both have an advantage of a high portion of homes having electric hot water on a remoted controlled off-peak tariff, enabling a substantial load to be intentionally switched on during the middle of the day as a workaround. They also have a pretty decent network.

Tas has extreme dominance of electricity for water heating, market share is about 94% if heat pumps are included, but it's not under any form of remote control. Much the same in the NT although hot water energy use up there isn't the big load that it is down south, it's not a factor to worry about really.

SA, WA and especially Victoria gas water heating dominates and what electric water heating does exist mostly isn't under remote control (or any time control at all for most of them in WA's case).

So broadly Qld, NSW and Tas are in a good position to accommodate a lot of solar whilst Vic, SA and WA have more limitations. NT it really depends on what town you're in.

Me personally?

Yes I have solar. Just over 5kW, that being limited by unshaded and otherwise suitable roof space. Suffice to say every panel that could be fitted up there is up there and without cutting down three large trees, there's no real benefit in adding any more.

Yes I have a battery.

Me being me, the hot water's heated by a heat pump and that's very intentionally powered between 10am and 3:00pm ACST only. This is on the Off Peak Controlled Load meter and is separate to the solar. That detail isn't about when I use hot water, it's just about intentionally shifting load to when supply is abundant - quite often I'm heating water using wind or solar energy that would otherwise go to waste.

Now if it were up to me then I'd be doing two things right across SA (and Victoria).

1. Change the operating times of electric storage hot water from night to middle of the day. Only reason it hasn't already been done is in SA bureaucracy and regulators (of the legal and economic variety) are in the way and in Victoria's case they installed smart meters without enabling any smart functionality.

My view is get it done, do it now, worry about bureaucracy later.

For the Type 4 meters just tell the retailers to do it ASAP. It can be done remotely since the meters communicate. Could have the whole lot done within two days.

For the Type 5 meters it needs someone to go around each house physically and change the programming. No problem - just get a list, some workers and some cars and go do it.

Every house with solar installed prior to December 2017 will have a Type 5 meter, everything more recent (including new homes or meter upgrades without solar) will be Type 4 meter.

For Type 6 meters, the old rotating disc and analogue timer, well changing that is clockwork, literally so. Cut the seals, pull the cover off, undo two screws one on each timing pin, move the pins to the required times by sight, tighten the screws, lap the dial to make sure it works and set it to the present time, put the cover back on, apply new seals. Only takes a few minutes each and it's all mechanical, zero electronics in those.

Could do all the Type 4 straight away, Type 5 over 12 months, Type 6 over 3 years would be about right and fast enough to be a solution.

2. Given we've all this renewable energy available during the middle of the day, and storing hot water is about as easy and low tech as it gets whilst still being reasonably efficient (circa 85% in practice), it really doesn't make sense to continue pushing the public to use gas for that purpose.

WA and SA both do it to some extent at the state level but Victoria's extremely forceful and so are some individual councils in NSW. Might have made sense sometime but those days are over - heating water, especially with a heat pump, using solar that's otherwise being wasted beats gas for sure.

Note that I'm not advocating that gas be banned or anything like that, only that the practice of pushing consumers toward it as a means of water heating be ended and that heat pumps running on controlled load supply be encouraged instead. But if someone still wants gas well OK, no problem.

 

[Smurf1976]

Instead we have a roadmap where the new roads to be built or being built are guided by a carrot and stick approach.
The technicals are in the "too hard" basket, along with who would pay.

Yep.

A couple of examples.

There's a factory in NSW currently looking at building their own on-site power station, run by fossil fuels, for 24/7 operation. That's a workaround to "hassles" with upgrading the power supply to the site.

Another one is the Off Peak Controlled Load (OPCL) timing issue in SA that I refer to in the previous post. Just get it done.....

Trouble is, there's a lot of focus on the economic and legal stuff with the technical and environmental aspects taking a back seat. End result is silly things happen.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[sptrawler]

Hydrogen is certainly getting a lot of airplay in Europe, Siemens are targeting $1.50/kg by 2025, for green hydrogen, that is certainly cheap enough to make it viable for a lot of applications. Volume could be the issue?

Siemens Energy targets $1.50/kg renewable hydrogen cost by 2025

Siemens Energy is targeting renewable hydrogen costs of $1.50/kg by 2025 based on a power cost of $16/MWh and a 100 MW electrolysis system running for 6,000 hours a year, managers said at Siemens firs

www.spglobal.com

The Hydrogen Stream: Siemens targets $1.50/kg by 2025, BP and Saudi Aramco bet on blue hydrogen

The German company expects to roll out its in-house proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis technology to implement a gigawatt production of electrolyzers. BP partners with UK gas distributor Northern Gas Networks (NGN) to develop blue hydrogen and Saudi Aramco teams up with Hyundai Heavy...

www.pv-magazine.com

 

[sptrawler]

Well it looks as though the penny has dropped at AGL, not before time IMO, now it looks to be getting on the front foot.
Well we have been talking about this on the forum, for some time.

AGL seals tech deal with Britain’s OVO as energy shake-up looms

The new partnership, which will adapt OVO’s tech platform for the Australian market, comes as AGL prepares to brief shareholders about how it will reshape its business as the rise of renewable energy weighs on power prices.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
AGL has launched a new venture with Britain’s OVO Energy as the power giant accelerates its response to the rapid changes rocking the energy market and hammering its profits.

The new partnership, under which OVO’s technology platform will be adapted for the Australian market, comes as AGL prepares to brief shareholders on Tuesday about how it will reshape its business strategy amid the deepening challenge of rising renewable energy pushing down daytime electricity prices.
AGL head of future business and technology John Chambers said OVO’s Kaluza platform would provide customers with real-time information on their energy use and would optimise charging times as the uptake of rooftop solar panels and electric vehicles continued to grow.
The joint venture comes amid predictions by some analysts that AGL will announce a restructure or demerger of some of its coal-fired power plants, which are struggling to compete with vastly cheaper wind and solar energy.

“The energy transition itself is happening faster than expected,” Mr Chambers said as the partnership was announced. “In that regard, we are getting ahead of the curve.”
AGL and OVO, which is Britain’s third-largest energy provider, said Australia had one of the world’s highest levels of rooftop solar generation. Kaluza’s software would help address grid challenges by “intelligently shifting” device charging to times of lower demand. It could also present customers with financial incentives to dispatch energy from their batteries and electric cars when needed.

"People with rooftop solar, household batteries, electric vehicles ... can literally be presented offers in real time saying the grid needs some energy right now, if you plug your car in we'll be able to pay you a certain amount of money per minute," Mr Chambers said.

"You're effectively an active part of the grid. That's the future this allows."

 

[Smurf1976]

Well it looks as though the penny has dropped at AGL, not before time IMO, now it looks to be getting on the front foot.

As I've said many times - there's radical change in this industry but the grid as such is going to become far more intertwined with society not the reverse.

Much like roads became far more important to society after the horses and carts which were once the main users of them became obsolete. The cart and horse went away but the road industry itself was only just getting going at that point.

 

[SirRumpole]

Flywheels as an alternative to batteries ?

Any comments on the economics of one v the other ?

 

[sptrawler]

Flywheels as an alternative to batteries ?

Any comments on the economics of one v the other ?

They give the system inertia, but they do draw power, having said that they are relatively cheap. Synchronous condensers are more flexible as they can be used for VAR control, but smurf will be able to comment, I'm going off fading memories. ?
Re flywheel VS battery, they really do provide a different function, comparing apples and oranges really you can eat them both but they have different characteristics.
The flywheel can take a short system disturbance well (inertia), but a longer outage the flywheel becomes another drag on the system, the battery can supply the load proportional to its capacity(storage).
That's my take on it.

 

[basilio]

Labour has come up with a community battery policy they will take to the next election.
Essentially supporting 400 community batteries that would store and return the excess solar energy from 100,000 households.
Elegant solution to helping ensure grid stability and kicking on the move to renewable energy.
Should be in time for the commercialization of liquid metals battery systems.

Community batteries: what are they, and how could they help Australian energy consumers?

Labor proposes funding batteries to allow households with solar power to pool excess electricity. Here’s what you need to know

www.theguardian.com

Technology Focus: Liquid Metal Batteries Look Hot (see pg.15) - Ambri

ambri.com

 

[basilio]

Ausgrid Power company is already proposing a community battery program around Sydney.

Community Batteries - Ausgrid

Batteries are key to supporting the growth of renewable energy sources. A community battery is a shared solution for a local neighbourhood that allows both that neighbourhood and the wider community to access the multiple benefits batteries can provide.

www.ausgrid.com.au

 

[Smurf1976]

Labour has come up with a community battery policy they will take to the next election.

I'm cautiously optimisitc.

It's one of those things which could be of significant benefit if done well or a complete waste if done poorly.

Location is key and I'll be straight to the point there - there's not much correlation between the right places to put batteries and how "safe" an electorate is politically.

I think everyone knows where that thought is going. Done well it could be a great idea but I'll reserve judgement at this stage until the detail is apparent and it's clear that the batteries to be installed aren't the type which involves the use of pork or barrels.

I'll reserve judgement pending confirmation that the batteries are 100% free of pork and barrels.

 

[Smurf1976]

They give the system inertia, but they do draw power, having said that they are relatively cheap. Synchronous condensers are more flexible as they can be used for VAR control, but smurf will be able to comment, I'm going off fading memories. ?

Really depends on the scale and intended purpose.

Synchronous condensers are, in layman's terms, to manipulate electrical properties on the grid.

A flywheel system could be used for that, indeed the syn cons being installed in SA at the moment do have flywheels which bring the mass of each syn con up to 172 tonnes, but a flywheel system could also be used simply to store energy if it's big enough.

So it depends on scale and purpose really. Storing energy as such as distinct from wanting to manipulate fault currents, reactive power and so on. As a bulk energy storage method off the grid they've seen use in the past, most notably to power buses.

 

[basilio]

I'm cautiously optimisitc.

It's one of those things which could be of significant benefit if done well or a complete waste if done poorly.

Location is key and I'll be straight to the point there - there's not much correlation between the right places to put batteries and how "safe" an electorate is politically.

I think everyone knows where that thought is going. Done well it could be a great idea but I'll reserve judgement at this stage until the detail is apparent and it's clear that the batteries to be installed aren't the type which involves the use of pork or barrels.

I'll reserve judgement pending confirmation that the batteries are 100% free of pork and barrels.

I'm sure there will some judicious use of "pork and barrels". I think however the key elements will be executing a quality cost effective installation that works well for the community, the power companies and the grid itself. I suspect there is now so much solar power around that one could argue for a community battery in many locations. In fact it wouldn't surprise me if there was additional support for solar installations in some areas to improve the technical need for a battery.

If I was Labour I would be proposing a range of batteries and installation models to enable good comparisons between potential systems and encourage a fast learning curve.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm sure there will some judicious use of "pork and barrels". I think however the key elements will be executing a quality cost effective installation that works well for the community, the power companies and the grid itself. I suspect there is now so much solar power around that one could argue for a community battery in many locations. In fact it wouldn't surprise me if there was additional support for solar installations in some areas to improve the technical need for a battery.

If I was Labour I would be proposing a range of batteries and installation models to enable good comparisons between potential systems and encourage a fast learning curve.

In W.A community batteries have been rolled out for quite some time, maybe Albo and McGowan have be been talking.
https://www.westernpower.com.au/our...d-trials/powerbank-community-battery-storage/

 

[sptrawler]

Well at last the issue of renewables and gas in the immediate future, is coming to a head, it needs to because someone needs to be held accountable for the outcome.
The States are basically responsible for their electricity assets, yet the Federal takes responsibility for any shortfall, so the debate needs to be robust.
From a personal perspective, I would rather have a big at call gas station siting there and not needing it, than needing it and not having one. ?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-12/four-corners-gas-plan-pressured-experts/100055730

 

[SirRumpole]

Well at last the issue of renewables and gas in the immediate future, is coming to a head, it needs to because someone needs to be held accountable for the outcome.
The States are basically responsible for their electricity assets, yet the Federal takes responsibility for any shortfall, so the debate needs to be robust.
From a personal perspective, I would rather have a big at call gas station siting there and not needing it, than needing it and not having one. ?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-12/four-corners-gas-plan-pressured-experts/100055730

Exactly, that's the issue.

Building other stuff like pumped hydro takes decades and we need something else in the meantime so gas seems the best medium term alternative.

But also in the long run gas turbines can also run off other fuels like ethanol, which if it's made from sugar cane is a renewable fuel and could support the sugar cane to ethanol industry which would also help alleviate our reliance on oil for land transport.

Brazil does it, so can we.

Ethanol fuel in Brazil - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[sptrawler]

Exactly, that's the issue.

Building other stuff like pumped hydro takes decades and we need something else in the meantime so gas seems the best medium term alternative.

But also in the long run gas turbines can also run off other fuels like ethanol, which if it's made from sugar cane is a renewable fuel and could support the sugar cane to ethanol industry which would also help alleviate our reliance on oil for land transport.

Brazil does it, so can we.

Ethanol fuel in Brazil - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It can also run off hydrogen, so can the gas cooktops in people's homes, it certainly appears the ABC has an axe to grind, they aren't doing themselves any favours IMO.

These muppets that have the black/white, renewables or nothing are being stupidly blinkered.
If we get to a point where green hydrogen production is sufficient, gas turbines running on hydrogen saves making a lot of dams, a lot of batteries etc and is available 24/7. The turbine might not be required to run 24/7 but it is there if needed and is perfectly 'green'.

The reporters are being dumb ar$e IMO, next they will be ramping up the rhetoric against dam storage and the environment.
They wont be happy until Australia is flucked.
Tribal politics and pizz poor reporting will equal a pizz poor outcome.
Someone should hold these reporters to account IMO.
Just my thoughts.

 

[SirRumpole]

It can also run off hydrogen, so can the gas cooktops in people's homes, it certainly appears the ABC has an axe to grind, they aren't doing themselves any favours IMO.

These muppets that have the black/white, renewables or nothing are being stupidly blinkered.
If we get to a point where green hydrogen production is sufficient, gas turbines running on hydrogen saves making a lot of dams, a lot of batteries etc and is available 24/7. The turbine might not be required to run 24/7 but it is there if needed and is perfectly 'green'.

The reporters are being dumb ar$e IMO, next they will be ramping up the rhetoric against dam storage and the environment.
They wont be happy until Australia is flucked.
Tribal politics and pizz poor reporting will equal a pizz poor outcome.
Just my thoughts.

Yeah I agree.

Trouble is that there are too many people/businesses pushing their own lines to the detriment of others.

@Smurf1976 said it a long time ago, "anything that works".

This should not be a competition, but a cooperation between different alternatives that are all viable in certain circumstances.

Get the rent seekers out of decision making and turn it back to (unbiased) scientists and engineers.

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah I agree.

Trouble is that there are too many people/businesses pushing their own lines to the detriment of others.

Smurf said it a long time ago, "anything that works".

This should not be a competition, but a cooperation between different alternatives that are all viable in certain circumstances.

Get the rent seekers out of decision making and turn it back to (unbiased) scientists and engineers.

Like i said 90% of the problem IMO, is the media coverage is based on political/ environmental bias and presenting flawed information.
The gas pipelines and gas turbines can be made to carry hydrogen at a later date, it is a great solution and ensures the reliability of supply, to paint turbines as being 'dirty' is crap, if they are run on H2 they are as clean as dispatchable generation gets.