The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

Also if perfectly good power stations weren't blown up, until an alternative had been installed, they wouldn't be in this situation.

Alinta shut a perfectly good power station because they weren't in on AGL's plans to close Torrens Island A or Liddell, they weren't aware of what Engie were doing with Hazelwood, Alcoa with Anglesea or of the SA - NSW transmission line either.

All comes down to it being viewed as a market when in reality it's a system.

 

[sptrawler]

Alinta shut a perfectly good power station because they weren't in on AGL's plans to close Torrens Island A or Liddell, they weren't aware of what Engie were doing with Hazelwood, Alcoa with Anglesea or of the SA - NSW transmission line either.

All comes down to it being viewed as a market when in reality it's a system.

Also the S.A Government, refused to take it over, because it didn't fit in with their ideology.
Yet they are still part of that grid and it would have assisted in the stability of the grid.
Instead they have a situation, where they have had to stick diesel gen sets all over the place, weird logics. IMO
It really is a shocking mess. IMO

 

[SirRumpole]

Risks of blackout unlikely in next 10 years says AEMO.

(With fingers firmly crossed).

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-23/dont-panic-the-lights-will-probably-stay-on/11439600

 

[sptrawler]

Risks of blackout unlikely in next 10 years says AEMO.

(With fingers firmly crossed).

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-23/dont-panic-the-lights-will-probably-stay-on/11439600

As per usual it boils down to who is writing the article.

 

[sptrawler]

This article, gives an indication of the issue I brought up earlier, about how much arable land and habitat will be lost by this solar panel installation plan.
I think it will be a huge issue, when the 'Greenies" wake up IMO.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australian-sunshine-could-soon-be-farmed-to-power-an-asian-nation

From the article.
David Griffin is an entrepreneur and leader in the development of Australia's renewable energy industry and his ambitious new plan to power Singapore from a 15,000-hectare solar farm in the Northern Territory has investors taking interest worldwide.
The solar farm would sprawl over 15,000 hectares, backed by a 10-gigawatt plant.

The Northern Territory Government recently granted ‘major project’ status with construction expected to start in 2023. Environmental approvals are pending .

Also that is to supply someone else, we will need several more of these scale plants, to supply ourselves, interesting times ahead.

 

[rederob]

This article, gives an indication of the issue I brought up earlier, about how much arable land and habitat will be lost by this solar panel installation plan.

There is no need at all to put solar where arable land is. However, there are already solar farms integrating with cropping, with the panels providing essential shading from the severe heat during the hottest months.
In terms of total required for solar to power the whole of Australia i hope you realise that we are talking a small fraction of one percent of the continent's size. However, much of suburbia will, in years to come, be energy sufficient as battery and panel prices continue to decline. Furthermore, an international energy export market will be in play before the end of the 2020s and Australia needs to take decisive action sooner rather than later in order to capitalise.

 

[sptrawler]

There is no need at all to put solar where arable land is. However, there are already solar farms integrating with cropping, with the panels providing essential shading from the severe heat during the hottest months.
In terms of total required for solar to power the whole of Australia i hope you realise that we are talking a small fraction of one percent of the continent's size. However, much of suburbia will, in years to come, be energy sufficient as battery and panel prices continue to decline. Furthermore, an international energy export market will be in play before the end of the 2020s and Australia needs to take decisive action sooner rather than later in order to capitalise.

That still wont change the backlash, that hasn't picked up pace yet. IMO
Just an observation, not an issue to start debating, the outcome will be self resolving.

 

[rederob]

That still wont change the backlash, that hasn't picked up pace yet. IMO
Just an observation, not an issue to start debating, the outcome will be self resolving.

You realise you are "forecasting" an outcome based on a poor understanding?
That's not to say there will be imbeciles who are incapable of simple maths and also jump to a false conclusion, as there is zero need to put solar farms on arable land.
Additionally, solar farms are being placed where land is dirt cheap, and rainfall is low (given cloud cover reduces solar output). So more remote regions will be most profitable. The greater initial cost will be connecting them to the grid.
This shows the area needed to meet Australia's power needs:

But as I said previously, residential solar (and storage in particular) will continue to increase, so that dot above will remain very small.

Very different story with wind, as the footprint of a wind turbine is fractional and will have minimum impact on agriculture.
What I am not grasping is the type of "backlash" you are suggesting is likely. Exactly what will people be concerned about?

 

[sptrawler]

The World as Uncle Rob sees it.
In a lot of people's eyes, no matter where they put them it is somethings habitat and some people will take exception to it. Ala Bob Brown and the wind farm on an Island in Bass Straight.
Jeez you really do take yourself seriously don't you, is everyone who doesn't say what you want to hear an idiot?
Here are a few proposed solar farms.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2...e-energy-potential-to-power-indonesia/8853238

https://reneweconomy.com.au/pilbara...-to-11gw-as-macquarie-provides-capital-47749/

https://www.energymatters.com.au/renewable-news/worlds-largest-solar-farm-nt-singapore/

This is just the beginning and you don't think people will say something? Best of luck with that.
The above is without considering the installations Australia needs for its own use.
The other problem is, if they are installed where there is no cloud cover and low rainfall, dust will be a huge issue. Dust cover can reduce output 40% no problem.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/sc...ollution-can-block-25-percent-of-solar-power/

https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/08/23/2988933.htm
From the article:
"A dust layer of 4 grams per square metre decreases solar power conversion by 40%," he says.

"In Arizona, dust is deposited each month at over 4 times that amount. Deposition rates are even higher in Australia, the Middle East, and India.

They still haven't come up with a way of auto cleaning on a mass scale and from your article 900sq/klm . and that is just for us.
Your funny Rob.

 

[bellenuit]

I think the solar foot print is a non-issue, particularly in Australia. We are currently only scratching the surface of where solar collectors can be located. Solar panels are just the first iteration of solar collectors and even those can have their foot print much reduced by proper design of new buildings and factories. Roof design to optimise solar collection should be a huge factor in all new building design. But there are also advancements being made in alternative collectors such as paint, road surfaces and car roofs. Cost is a huge factor, but that will improve over time. Potentially every surface exposed to the sun can become a collector. It is just a matter of whether it is a cost effective source.

 

[sptrawler]

I think the solar foot print is a non-issue, particularly in Australia. We are currently only scratching the surface of where solar collectors can be located. Solar panels are just the first iteration of solar collectors and even those can have their foot print much reduced by proper design of new buildings and factories. Roof design to optimise solar collection should be a huge factor in all new building design. But there are also advancements being made in alternative collectors such as paint, road surfaces and car roofs. Cost is a huge factor, but that will improve over time. Potentially every surface exposed to the sun can become a collector. It is just a matter of whether it is a cost effective source.

I agree with you on a technical basis.

 

[rederob]

Jeez you really do take yourself seriously don't you, is everyone who doesn't say what you want to hear an idiot?

I asked about the backlash, and you offered nothing.
Wind turbines can be unsightly in pristine wilderness environments and the questions Bob Brown has asked are legitimate. The south coast of Australia's mainland - from Albany to Port Augusta - is probably a better option for turbines, but won't win any votes.
Rather than invent problems, how about you stump up with the issues you consider are going to cause concern.

 

[sptrawler]

I asked about the backlash, and you offered nothing.
Wind turbines can be unsightly in pristine wilderness environments and the questions Bob Brown has asked are legitimate. The south coast of Australia's mainland - from Albany to Port Augusta - is probably a better option for turbines, but won't win any votes.
Rather than invent problems, how about you stump up with the issues you consider are going to cause concern.

Well I actually did offer something, I said quote:
In a lot of people's eyes, no matter where they put them it is somethings habitat and some people will take exception to it. Ala Bob Brown and the wind farm on an Island in Bass Straight.
Now to move on.
From your posted article, it states that Australia for domestic supply requires 900sq/klm of solar farms, that is nearly half the size of Victoria.
The proposed farm in the N.W of W.A is expected to cover 7,000 sq/Klm, which is nearly 3 times the size of Victoria.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/huge-pi...igger-as-focus-turns-to-green-hydrogen-64292/
Then add to that the proposed solar farms in the N.T and North Queensland, also the requirement to dam suitable sites, you are bound to come into the cultural, flora and fauna issues, as happened with the James Price Point proposal near Broome, the Roe 8 freeway extension in Perth etc.
I hope it all goes well but I doubt it will, everyone has vested interests, but it will be self resolving as I said.
People will demand safe, reliable power.

 

[rederob]

@sptrawler - please do your maths better.
As to your Bob Brown quote, you need to context it to his overall comments, and you did not.

 

[sptrawler]

@sptrawler - please do your maths better.
As to your Bob Brown quote, you need to context it to his overall comments, and you did not.

Wow.
Good point.
The issue still remains, with regard backlash, take Gove peninsula for example.
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...cts-unmerciful-destruction-of-indigenous-land
To think there wont be a backlash is not realistic IMO.
You are talking about clearing a lot of vegetation, it isn't sand hills out there and people will react sooner or later. IMO

 

[rederob]

Australia’s land area is 7,692,000 km² and to generate the energy for the country would require 919km² complete coverage, or 0.01% of Australia. Solar farms have lots of ground uncovered.
One of the world's biggest solar farms is the 2,000 megawatt Pavagada solar park, which spans a total area of 53km² across the villages of Nagalmadike Hobli, including Vallur, Balasamudra, Tirumani, Rayacharlu, and Kyataganacharlu in Pavagada:

The proposed farm in the N.W of W.A is expected to cover 7,000 sq/Klm, which is nearly 3 times the size of Victoria.

Very creative maths - or are you talking about a different Victoria?

 

[sptrawler]

Yes my stuff up on the maths, too much happening at home, lol
I can't see how they are working out the amount required, the one in NW W.A is going to be 11GW and cover 7,000sq/km.
The Eastern States need a lot more than 11GW yet from your article, it will only cover an area of 900sq/km, something doesn't add up.
If system load is 30GW at 5PM, they need the storage and generation to supply it, that is a lot of generation.
Like I say, it will be self resolving and it will be very interesting, I'm really looking forward to see it unfold.

 

[SirRumpole]

Yet another report on the viability of nuclear power from the Australia Institute a progressive think tank.

I wonder if we will ever get a truly independent report on our future power needs. (maybe if Smurf writes it )

Ziggy Switowski reckoned we should have 25 nuclear reactors by 2050.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...ower-is-not-the-answer-for-australia/11450850

 

[sptrawler]

Yet another report on the viability of nuclear power from the Australia Institute a progressive think tank.

I wonder if we will ever get a truly independent report on our future power needs. (maybe if Smurf writes it )

Ziggy Switowski reckoned we should have 25 nuclear reactors by 2050.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...ower-is-not-the-answer-for-australia/11450850

Like I said to Rob, the issue will become self resolving, if renewables can't cut it, then something will be put in be that nuclear or fossil fuel, whether the left like it or not.
If renewables can effectively run the system 24/7 for 365 days of the year, then that is great and they will be the answer, time will tell.
There is one thing for sure, if the East coast is sitting there in the dark, with no power untill the sun comes up, something will be done.
A good test, would be to cut the power lines into S.A and see how they go, without running their fossil fueled stations.

 

[sptrawler]

I asked about the backlash, and you offered nothing.
Wind turbines can be unsightly in pristine wilderness environments and the questions Bob Brown has asked are legitimate. The south coast of Australia's mainland - from Albany to Port Augusta - is probably a better option for turbines, but won't win any votes.
Rather than invent problems, how about you stump up with the issues you consider are going to cause concern.

Hi Rob, I saw this on the internet this morning, just as a point of interest.
https://www.yasstribune.com.au/stor...up-raises-concerns-about-solar-farm-proposal/
From the article:
The Sutton Solar Action Group (SSAG) has continued to express its concerns and awareness about a proposed solar farm on Tallagandra Lane, about 3.5km northeast of the ACT–NSW border.

The $150 million Springdale Solar Farm by Renew Estate is proposed to have a 30-year lifespan and would be on 350 hectares of land currently used for grazing.

SSAG, which was formed by 10 Sutton residents in November 2017, said the development was a solar-power station rather than a solar farm.

Top among the group’s concerns is the location and size of the proposal.

“We are not against the development of renewable energy technologies as an alternative to fossil fuels.

“We do, however, believe that our community is not the appropriate location for a hub of large-scale developments of this kind,” SSAG spokesperson Peter Gillett said.

The proposal will consist of more than 400,000 solar panels, which would have supporting infrastructure of commercial buildings covering 3,500m2.