The future of energy generation and storage

[basilio]

Have to say that SP's source for how well Australia is moving into renewable energy, the savings that are being made and the opportunity to dispense with many other energy sources ( petrol, gas) in favour of clean, cheap, renewable PV/Wind/ Hydro is compelling reading.

SP may have thought it a bit dry but I suggest it is very exciting and very encouraging. Wonder if our pollies can read ?

http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/publications/assets/100renewables.pdf

 

[Smurf1976]

Current harsh weather conditions are producing an unusually wide variation in electricity spot prices between states. At present:

Qld = $0.00 (yep, literally free)
NSW = $1.68
SA = $20.20
Tas = $150.04
Vic = $163.44

The simple explanation is the wind and sun.

Lots of wind in the mainland states but not so much in Tas on the generation side plus lots of sun in Qld.

On the transmission side flow between SA and Vic has been restricted due to concern about potential failures (eg lines coming down) due to the weather whilst that between NSW and Vic is simply maxed out.

No prizes for guessing that with those prices water is being pumped in the Wivenhoe and Shoalhaven pumped hydro schemes in Qld and NSW respectively.

The end result is a fragmented market. Abundant generation in Qld, NSW, SA has pushed prices down there but can't get it into Vic where supply is tight with high demand due to the weather and significant coal-fired plant outages with the wind being insufficient to offset that within the state. That supply tightness in Vic has also dragged up the spot price in Tas with substantial volume being transferred Tas > Vic.

Just posted it for info for anyone who's interested in trading electricity which ultimately is a financial market much the same as anything else, albeit one that not many speculate on but still.

 

[SirRumpole]

Just posted it for info for anyone who's interested in trading electricity which ultimately is a financial market much the same as anything else, albeit one that not many speculate on but still.

I didn't know you could trade electricity.

Given the criticism of water trading recently, I wonder if there is any inherent advantages to the consumer of electricity trading ?

 

[Smurf1976]

I didn't know you could trade electricity.

I should clarify a distinction in that my comments were about short term happenings in the spot market whereas any speculator would realistically only be able to trade futures but ultimately that sort of thing will influence the futures to the extent that it happens and has a risk of happening again (which it will).

https://www.asx.com.au/products/energy-derivatives/australian-electricity.htm

So the market with the ASX covers Qld, NSW, Vic and SA.

Tas is part of the NEM but the market price is more about aligning with national systems than anything of consequence given that pretty much all bulk loads (retailers and heavy industry) is under contract anyway such that the market price is inconsequential therefore no active market in it.

For WA and NT all very different......

 

[Belli]

A tale of two electricity bills.

First off, as I have said way back in this thread, I have two PV Solar systems. One a 5kW SMA inverter with 19 x 345w panels. The other a battery ready 5kW SolarEdge inverter with 19 x 345w panels and power optimisers.

The first bill covered the period 9 Feb to 8 May and provided a $123.23 refund. The current bill is for the period 9 May to 8 August and the amount due is $591.10. Net result is over 180 days the cost to me has been $467.87. Not too bad as far as I am concerned. This compares with a total of $1,210.96 for the pcp.

The current second period includes extensively operating the ducted recycle system for heating - after all, I do live in Canberra.

I ignored the, um, expert advice of my former electrician neighbour, who told me to set the timer to heat the house up in the morning. OK so it's -4C ambient and probably -7C actual, the unit would go through a defrost stage and then consume heaps of energy heating a house from, say, 11C to a more comfortable 18C.

While the house is double glazed it will still gradually lose heat throughout a cold night.

So overnight I set the thermostat to the minimum allowed of 16C, unit is idle 70% to 80% of the time and only has to operate if the internal temperature drops by about 1C which seems consistent with the advice provided to me by the installers.

During the evening I do not have to set the thermostat to anything above 20C as, for me at least, that temperature is very cosy. Others who have been in here mention that.

Also the second bill includes a 300 litre tank Solar Hot Water Service with an electrical boost. The 18 year old HWS blew up and rather than mess around I decided to throw money at the problem. Cold showers in Canberra when it's -4C in the morning ain't my thing. To overcome potential issues when solar production is lousy the electric boost does not operate on an off-peak basis as the house is on a night-time for that. The difference between day/night off-peak and the peak rate is $0.80c per kWh. Didn't seem worth doing to me.

 

[Belli]

Correction to the following. The difference is actually $0.008 per kWh. Putting the decimal point in the right place is a good idea.

The difference between day/night off-peak and the peak rate is $0.80c per kWh. Didn't seem worth doing to me.

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting development in the NW of W.A, oil and apparently lots of it, it's just going to cost a lot to get it.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...roject-using-fracking-west-kimberley/11389046

 

[sptrawler]

This lack of water and rainfall over East, is another problem that will affect the pumped storage debate, if there isn't enough storage to supply potable water, there may be a requirement to use some of the pumped storage sites.
Then they still require enough rainfall to fill and maintain the level in the pumped storage, I don't think it is all going to be as straight forward as people seem to think.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/...or-first-time-since-2004-20190815-p52hfx.html
The existing desalination plant output is going to be doubled already, which means more generation required, bit of a vicious circle really.

 

[sptrawler]

The existing desalination plant output is going to be doubled already, which means more generation required, bit of a vicious circle really.

Just read up a bit more on the desal plant, and apparently a windfarm has been built, to mitigate the demand. looks as though they thought ahead a bit.

 

[qldfrog]

Actually desalination is one activity you could fluctuate based on wing power production.not optimum but easier than smelters..

 

[Value Collector]

Harder to maintain perhaps, but maybe more efficient at catching sea breezes and easier on wildlife..

Aren’t the animals in the ocean “wild life” too?

————

I am not that concerned about solar panels and wind farms using land, at the end of he day it’s a temporary use of the land, unlike an open pit coal mine.

 

[sptrawler]

Unless the two OOS units get repaired as promised, by December, there is every likely hood of power outages in Victoria this summer.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...power-supply-not-improved-aemo-warns/11436518

 

[Smurf1976]

Unless the two OOS units get repaired as promised, by December, there is every likely hood of power outages in Victoria this summer.

The reality of the situation is starting to sink in it seems. There's more bad news to come but at least the penny's dropped that ending up with millions of people literally left in the dark is a very real possibility just months from now.

Victoria's in the worst shape by far, being heavily reliant on surrounding states to keep the lights on.

Then there's the real elephant in the room - the imminent sharp decline in Victoria's gas production. Can't run gas-fired generation without any gas! Some of it has diesel as backup but quite a bit doesn't.

On the financial side I will simply say that there's a lot of risks here when prices normally around ~100 / MWh spike to $14,000+. A lot of money starts changing hands real quick under those circumstances and you don't want to be an unhedged buyer from the market at that point. You don't really want to be owning shares in anyone in that situation either.

Whilst this is posted in General Chat there are undoubtedly financial implications for quite a few listed companies and not just the obvious ones like AGL or Origin.

 

[sptrawler]

The reality of the situation is starting to sink in it seems. There's more bad news to come but at least the penny's dropped that ending up with millions of people literally left in the dark is a very real possibility just months from now.

Victoria's in the worst shape by far, being heavily reliant on surrounding states to keep the lights on.
.

I noticed in the article the AEMO, is starting to state the obvious, something has to be done in the foreseeable future.
It is all starting to get a bit wobbly.

 

[moXJO]

I noticed in the article the AEMO, is starting to state the obvious, something has to be done in the foreseeable future.
It is all starting to get a bit wobbly.

It amazes me that we even got to this point.....
The government needs to step up and get it done.

 

[sptrawler]

It amazes me that we even got to this point.....
The government needs to step up and get it done.

IMO it isn't that easy, everyone believes it can be fixed with renewables, when in reality the time constraints make that impossible.
If we had 20-30 years no problem, we don't in reality from the sound of the condition of the existing power stations, something is needed in the next 5 or so years because the problem is compounding.
It isn't a static problem, in 5 years stations fall over, while others are getting older and are used and abused more, therefore they start falling over. IMO a circuit breaker is needed, something that is new that can take the stress of the existing plant, as more renewables are installed.
So it is either coal, gas, diesel, hydro or nuclear, none of which are easy for different reasons.
Coal- no problems with supply, but no one wants it.
Gas- big problems with supply of gas.
Diesel- bloody expensive to run, I mean eye watering expensive.
Hydro- way to go, but long planning and lead times (snowy 2.0) is already in planning and Tasmania is increasing hydro generation and storage.
Nuclear- ticks all the boxes with emissions, but huge amount of money, huge lead time, huge public backlash.
No quick fix.
Just my opinion.

 

[moXJO]

IMO it isn't that easy, everyone believes it can be fixed with renewables, when in reality the time constraints make that impossible.
If we had 20-30 years no problem, we don't in reality from the sound of the condition of the existing power stations, something is needed in the next 5 or so years because the problem is compounding.
It isn't a static problem, in 5 years stations fall over, while others are getting older and are used and abused more, therefore they start falling over. IMO a circuit breaker is needed, something that is new that can take the stress of the existing plant, as more renewables are installed.
So it is either coal, gas, diesel, hydro or nuclear, none of which are easy for different reasons.
Coal- no problems with supply, but no one wants it.
Gas- big problems with supply of gas.
Diesel- bloody expensive to run, I mean eye watering expensive.
Hydro- way to go, but long planning and lead times (snowy 2.0) is already in planning and Tasmania is increasing hydro generation and storage.
Nuclear- ticks all the boxes with emissions, but huge amount of money, huge lead time, huge public backlash.
No quick fix.
Just my opinion.

You are absolutely correct.
This has been seen as a problem for over a decade with little action. If decisive action was taken earlier we wouldn't be in this mess.

 

[sptrawler]

You are absolutely correct.
This has been seen as a problem for over a decade with little action. If decisive action was taken earlier we wouldn't be in this mess.

Also if perfectly good power stations weren't blown up, until an alternative had been installed, they wouldn't be in this situation.

 

[Smurf1976]

You are absolutely correct.
This has been seen as a problem for over a decade with little action. If decisive action was taken earlier we wouldn't be in this mess.

Agreed but the big problem, the real underlying one, is not that it's difficult from an engineering perspective but that the law makes anything sensible rather difficult.

A market and a system are different things.

The electricity grid is a system but problem is that politicians insist on treating it as a market. That's the ultimate cause of the situation we have now - actually planning anything isn't simply not being done, it's illegal in practice for anyone with the ability to make it happen to be doing so.

 

[moXJO]

Also if perfectly good power stations weren't blown up, until an alternative had been installed, they wouldn't be in this situation.

Yeah its crazy stuff. Ideology trumps reality these days, both ways.