The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

That's the AGL one at Loy Yang and the "incident" to which I've referred a few times.

Since it's a listed company I've been careful to only state what the company has said about it publicly - it had an internal short circuit and there's damage to the stator and rotor.

In layman's terms that's a serious incident and hard to fix - bit like saying someone had a heart attack or that your car's lying upside down at the bottom of the hill. It's a big problem not a minor one.

Official word from the company is it'll be fixed in December this year but that's an estimate subject to revision.

From an investment perspective AGL is a loser out of it but it's more complex when it comes to who wins. Origin Energy is the obvious potential winner so far as listed companies are concerned but where it gets complex is with the hedging arrangements in the market and the participation of other companies which aren't listed. What benefit may arise to Origin is thus far from certain (and noting that around a third of Origin's generation is under contract from others anyway and not actually owned by them).

Thanks for the info, I thought the report was referring to a second incident, winding damage is very serious and difficult to repair especially in the stator.

 

[Smurf1976]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...-reliable-in-the-country-20190614-p51xvb.html

I won't say much beyond:

*Keep piling more and more straws on the camel and its back really will break yes. Rather a lot of pain and cracks there already and it's only a matter of time.

*Most will of course blame the camel not those who kept loading on more straws.

*If you're trading electricity for speculative purposes or are investing in companies which are exposed then do so with an understanding that the physical supply situation, particularly in Victoria, is rather precarious as I've said on many occasions.

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting article on CSIRO outlook, for the future of energy in Australia.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/csiro-maps-outlook-for-australia-in-2060-ng-s-1950305

What I find interesting is the following sentence:
Australia could have 37 per cent renewables by 2060 and 'net zero' greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

If 37% is supplied by renewables, what is the other 63% supplied by, that is 'net zero' greenhouse gas.

 

[rederob]

What I find interesting is the following sentence: Australia could have 37 per cent renewables by 2060 and 'net zero' greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
If 37% is supplied by renewables, what is the other 63% supplied by, that is 'net zero' greenhouse gas.

That's because they do not understand the Report. Here's what it actually outlines at page 52:
"Renewables (including biofuels) account for 25–37% of total primary energy use, including almost 100% of electricity generation."

 

[basilio]

Understanding the Australian Energy Market in 2.5 minutes.

 

[Smurf1976]

A somewhat eventful week in SA and Vic in the energy market. Nothing major but it was out of the ordinary.

*Pretty much no wind in either state after Tuesday. It ramped down in an orderly manner and went very close to zero.

*Being around the shortest day of the year so solar performance also at its worst.

*Average daily electricity demand was higher than the annual average due to heating requirements.

*Gas demand for direct use running heaters in Victoria in particular was huge. On some days the energy used by gas heaters in Victoria, assuming that the difference between mild day consumption versus that which actually occurred under cold conditions is attributable to heating, exceeded all other uses of gas and all uses of electricity (including heating) combined. Total gas consumption in Victoria peaked at over 1.25 PJ / day (versus mild day consumption around 0.3 PJ).

*Another trip at Loy Yang A power station on Wednesday, this time unit 3, caused a bit of panic until it turned out to be a minor issue. It was off from 8:30am until late afternoon.

Putting all that together - those with reliable generating plant, either owned or contracted, which is able to run consistently during these conditions are making money.

Gas storage at Iona in Victoria was drawn upon heavily, at times at the maximum withdrawal rate, and decreased from 77% full this time last week to 73% now. Lots of gas burned in power stations as well as heating homes.

Most hydro plant in Vic and Tas was also run heavily during the week due to the circumstances. That's AGL hydro plants in Vic as well as Snowy and Hydro Tas all running hard.

For those investing in the sector, well you'd be wise to be investing in companies who are going to make money and I strongly recommend paying attention to the detail of what they're doing since simply cranking out megawatt hours isn't a guaranteed way to make money in a market where price can go negative. It's not just about how much you can or do generate but about being able to do it when demand's there and others are idle.

As for the major failure at Loy Yang A, well I won't spread rumours given it's a listed company etc but I'll note that the machine type is extremely uncommon such that there isn't a pile of used ones just sitting around somewhere waiting for a buyer. So that means repairing not replacing unless by some miracle one turns up.

Trying to fit a completely different unit in wouldn't be totally impossible but runs into lots of problems akin to trying to put Ford parts into a Toyota. Literally nothing fits so it's a last resort option basically to do something like that.

 

[SirRumpole]

Demand response. A way to save money, but also to entrench energy retailers profits ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...ith-demand-response-but-big-retailer/11232056

 

[sptrawler]

At last hydrogen, is getting serious, it will be interesting to see the energy landscape in 10 years.

https://www.gasworld.com/uks-first-hydrogen-train-set-for-testing/2017393.article

 

[SirRumpole]

A cat among the pigeons ?

Industry super funds willing to invest in nuclear power.

Should cause a stir up in the political scene.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-26/industry-super-funds-consider-the-nuclear-option/11248202

 

[sptrawler]

A cat among the pigeons ?

Industry super funds willing to invest in nuclear power.

Should cause a stir up in the political scene.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-26/industry-super-funds-consider-the-nuclear-option/11248202

Its the only obvious short term answer, other than gas and that isnt a long term answer.

 

[qldfrog]

lo

Its the only obvious short term answer, other than gas and that isnt a long term answer.

only long term I believe you meant, the other one is keep coal obviously or investing heavily in massive storage capacity ..not batteries but hydro most probably
with the amount of available land here, just block an estuary and pump up water with solar and win, let it flow by night time/calm days
the simpler the better but not if we have to wait 10y for the impact on old mitten, and the NIMB effect

 

[sptrawler]

lo
only long term I believe you meant, the other one is keep coal obviously or investing heavily in massive storage capacity ..not batteries but hydro most probably
with the amount of available land here, just block an estuary and pump up water with solar and win, let it flow by night time/calm days
the simpler the better but not if we have to wait 10y for the impact on old mitten, and the NIMB effect

Hi frog, what I meant was nuclear is the only clean generation medium that can be installed, without affecting emissions.
Gas is cleaner than coal, but if we use it to replace coal firstly it still has emission issues and secondly it will run out fairly quickly.
Then we are back with the problem we already have.

 

[qldfrog]

Think about the paradox, considering replacing co2 emissions unknown damaging effect whatever your gw fanatics tell you, against 10000y half life expensive proven deadly energy, poisoning earth for the next 2 or 3 civilizations
And we talk about an oil or cosl lobby
ROL
Ps my higher studies were done in a university branch named higher institute of matter and radiations...
But I'm not a qualified climate scientist..what is that? So i am ignorant and should follow the sheep endorsing uranium fission
Sickening

 

[sptrawler]

Hi frog, I would guess if we did decide on nuclear, it could quite possibly be thorium reactors, rather than uranium.
It wouldn't matter , we have plenty of both.lol

 

[Macquack]

I have a fairly simple question (I think) for our resident guru of power generation, obviously being Smurf.

Would you Smurf be earning more money in your job in the power industry if we had the old system where the utility of power was provided only by some form of government rather than the current complex system of mainly private ownership?

 

[IFocus]

I have a fairly simple question (I think) for our resident guru of power generation, obviously being Smurf.

Would you Smurf be earning more money in your job in the power industry if we had the old system where the utility of power was provided only by some form of government rather than the current complex system of mainly private ownership?

In the 80's I worked for SECWA in remote ares (power stations) (wanted to live in Carnarvon so I could surf Red Bluff and Gnaraloo....of course) I think I was paid about 30% less than say mining but my conditions would have been harder work wise.

Would be interested in Smurf's opinion.

 

[sptrawler]

Another thought that flashed through the empty vessel, I call my head, last night.
If a 400MW solar farm covers 160sq/klm, that is a lot of land that is no longer going to be available to be farmed, or if you want to put it in a non agricultural area a lot of land to be cleared.
Especially if you are talking ten times that area, for a respectable 4,000MW.

 

[rederob]

Another thought that flashed through the empty vessel, I call my head, last night.
If a 400MW solar farm covers 160sq/klm, that is a lot of land that is no longer going to be available to be farmed, or if you want to put it in a non agricultural area a lot of land to be cleared.
Especially if you are talking ten times that area, for a respectable 4,000MW.

I think your figures are out by a fair margin. I believe Bulli Creek solar farm will have a 50sq/km footprint and generate 1.2GW when completed.
The entire electricity demands of the USA can be met from solar in a small part of the region known as the Permian Basin (which now has the greatest oil reserves in the world).

 

[sptrawler]

I think your figures are out by a fair margin. I believe Bulli Creek solar farm will have a 50sq/km footprint and generate 1.2GW when completed.
The entire electricity demands of the USA can be met from solar in a small part of the region known as the Permian Basin (which now has the greatest oil reserves in the world).

I hope you are right, I was only going off the figures quoted for the U.S solar farm that facebook is funding, so hopefully my figures are wrong.

 

[sptrawler]

In the 80's I worked for SECWA in remote ares (power stations) (wanted to live in Carnarvon so I could surf Red Bluff and Gnaraloo....of course) I think I was paid about 30% less than say mining but my conditions would have been harder work wise.

Would be interested in Smurf's opinion.

That's interesting Ifocus, I worked for Regional Power Stations in the mid 80's, no doubt we know each other. lol
Back then, the project guys had to work five weeks on one week off, wouldn't happen today.