The future of Australian property prices

Mrmagoo · 12 July 2015

sptrawler said:
Further confirmation of Perth's housing woes.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-09/perth-rental-prices-drop/6605778

Not housing woes. People will be able to afford to live again !

rimtas · 12 July 2015

Perth is not alone, and the tendency is not looking bright,.

sptrawler · 12 July 2015

rimtas said:
Perth is not alone, and the tendency is not looking bright,.

View attachment 63365

Yes, at the moment there is a rush for property in a first world country, with a first world health, education and welfare system.

It will be interesting to see how it all looks in 10 years time.

sydboy007 · 13 July 2015

latest info from RP data

doesn't look pretty for a few of the capital cities

sydboy007 · 13 July 2015

I see in NSW that mortgage stamp duty is now roughly 10% of Govt revenue. It's probably at a more extreme level than most states due to the massive increase in property values.

It just seems unfair that the roughly 5% who purchase a property each year provide ~10% of Govt spending.

Take out GST and Federal grants and then it starts to become obvious how much a small minority are contributing too funding hospitals schools and public infrastructure in the state.

Then when I read articles like the below it shows how not having a land tax makes hoarding property a relatively cheap option

https://www.prosper.org.au/2014/11/13/report-speculative-vacancies-7/

“The state built a $110 million train station in Williams Landing. Consistent land re-zonings have been handed to developers to meet affordability demands but the thanks home buyers get is a doubling of the speculative vacancy rate there from 3.1% – 8.3%. This compares to the dismissible 1.9% published as the ‘to let’ vacancy.”

“The state’s leading export industry, tertiary education, was warmly welcomed with a 14.7% vacancy rate in Carlton South. No wonder rents are so high for international students.”

Rumours are this issue is widespread in Sydney as well.

But the Govt agencies responsible for keeping track of foreign money being forced into the housing market are non existent, so all we have are rumours and anecdotal evidence on just how widespread the problem is. How many students finish their studies and keep the house they're supposed to sell within 3 months of leaving the country? No Govt dept seems charged with keeping accurate records or following up. Would other countries sell out locals like we do by allowing foreigners to force out younger families from owning their own home?

Bringing in a broadly based land tax, with appropriate protections for those who would face financial hardship from the change of policy, would seem to be the best way forward. Unlike a lot of other taxes this would actually bring in extra cash into the economy. It would also hopefully force hoarders to either start letting the properties, or sell them to either a FHB or investor who will let the property. Either way there would be an increase in housing supply.

It would also see people who don't move house start paying a fairer share of the costs of all the services we demand as a first world country. It's also a far more stable income source, with stamp duty revenues changing up to 50% on a yearly basis, which are also pro cyclical.

nioka · 13 July 2015

"It just seems unfair that the roughly 5% who purchase a property each year provide ~10% of Govt spending."

What makes it doubly unfair is that it destroys the economics of those that need to relocate. They can't transfer from one home to another at equal value.

And again this was one tax that was supposed to be phased out when GST was introduced.

Also consider the petrol tax. Introduced many years ago as the 3 x 3 tax, a tax of 3cents a litre for 3 years which was "to fix all the states roads in three years. ??????????

This country is top heavy with underworked and overpaid bureaucrats.

sydboy007 · 13 July 2015

Release by ABS today

According to the ABS, investor finance commitments in New South Wales in May were 22.1% higher than May 2014. New South Wales investor loans were also up by 30.0% in rolling annual terms in the year to May 2015, well above the national average increase of 22.6%.

As at May 2015, investors accounted for an astonishing 59.4% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales (Sydney) – a new record. Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) share of investor mortgages also hit a record high 49.1% in May

Even in SA / QLD / WA investors were around the 40% mark.

waterbottle · 13 July 2015

sydboy007 said:
Release by ABS today

According to the ABS, investor finance commitments in New South Wales in May were 22.1% higher than May 2014. New South Wales investor loans were also up by 30.0% in rolling annual terms in the year to May 2015, well above the national average increase of 22.6%.

As at May 2015, investors accounted for an astonishing 59.4% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales (Sydney) – a new record. Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) share of investor mortgages also hit a record high 49.1% in May

Even in SA / QLD / WA investors were around the 40% mark.

No doubt many of those 60% investors are first-time buyers trying to get into the market by purchasing an investment property rather than PPOR.

sydboy007 · 14 July 2015

who'd a thought that SA would have the 3rd highest cost of residential land

qldfrog · 14 July 2015

sydboy007 said:
who'd a thought that SA would have the 3rd highest cost of residential land

View attachment 63443

it does not look again!!

sydboy007 · 14 July 2015

qldfrog said:
it does not look again!!

Check the cost on a per sqm basis.

Only Sydney and Perth beat it.

sptrawler · 14 July 2015

sydboy007 said:
Check the cost on a per sqm basis.

Only Sydney and Perth beat it.

It really does ring alarm bells, why is property going so stupid?

There must be an underlying driver, blind freddy knows it is over priced, so why is the driver still there?

Either we are not seeing the bigger picture, or a lot of cashed up punters see something we don't.

qldfrog · 14 July 2015

sydboy007 said:
Check the cost on a per sqm basis.

Only Sydney and Perth beat it.

hum, but that is probably because adelaide land is still within the actual (relatively) central area: small city block within 10k, vs far outskirts;
anyway, i just looked at the average price, but do agree that for a city (quite pleasant nevertheless) with a closing industry and no replacement, this is ridiculous

Smurf1976 · 14 July 2015

I'm puzzled as to why the average size is so low in Adelaide?

Logically on account of population and density etc I'd have expected it to be the second largest of that list and certainly not smaller than Sydney and Melbourne.

sptrawler · 14 July 2015

Smurf1976 said:
I'm puzzled as to why the average size is so low in Adelaide?

Logically on account of population and density etc I'd have expected it to be the second largest of that list and certainly not smaller than Sydney and Melbourne.

I'm guessing, but it may be due to the difficulty of supplying services.

In Perth, it sits on sand, so digging trenches is easy, sprawl dig sprawl dig.

sydboy007 · 15 July 2015

the grattan institute is now campaigining for the states to get rid of SD on house transaction and replace with a broadly based land tax

http://grattan.edu.au/report/property-taxes/

Property Taxes, the second working paper in Grattan’s Budget Repair series, finds that a levy of just $2 for every $1000 of unimproved land value would raise $7 billion a year with an annual charge of $772 on the median-priced Sydney home, $560 on the median-priced Melbourne home, and lower average rates in other cities and the regions.

While property taxes can be unpopular because they are highly visible and hard to avoid, they are also efficient and fair, and don’t change incentives to work, save and invest. Unlike capital, property is immobile – it cannot shift offshore to avoid taxes. Over the last 25 years, tax on property and property transactions have been the only significant growth taxes for states, with revenues keeping pace with the economy.

Being sensible policy reform the chances of it happening are low at the moment, but if a property bust does come for a state, they may be forced into action when SD levels drop to the point they're forced to change.

qldfrog · 15 July 2015

Smurf1976 said:
I'm puzzled as to why the average size is so low in Adelaide?

Logically on account of population and density etc I'd have expected it to be the second largest of that list and certainly not smaller than Sydney and Melbourne.

adelaide is full of small bangalows within 10km of the city, most people can afford to buy land there relatively near from the city but these are smaller blocks
my uninformed 2c advice

tech/a · 15 July 2015

The reason I think you'll find is the development of land very close to the city.
Very large sub divisions have popped up and developers have squeezed every
Cent out of available land.

Get out of the city area and it's very different.

notting · 15 July 2015

F#*K Iron Or Lets now sell them towering infernos.

I actually don't mind investors buying new apartments in bulk, even from China.
Looks like times are good and going to get better in the short term.

Chinese developers have been snapping up Australian property since the Shanghai Composite Index started tumbling.

Australia's property brokers are cashing in on China's stock market calamity.

The almost $US4 trillion rout is fuelling demand for less volatile assets in one of China's favourite real-estate markets, where a plunging Australian dollar is making property cheaper for offshore investors.

Chinese developers last month snapped up most of the 15 sites in and around Melbourne sold by CBRE Group - five times the property broker's usual monthly tally. The bulk of the deals were sealed after the Shanghai Composite Index started tumbling.

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/china-doubles-down-on-australian-real-estate-20150715-gicgju.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=social

sydboy007 · 15 July 2015

notting said:
F#*K Iron Or Lets now sell them towering infernos.

I actually don't mind investors buying new apartments in bulk, even from China.
Looks like times are good and going to get better in the short term.

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/china-doubles-down-on-australian-real-estate-20150715-gicgju.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=social

What a load of BS. te Sydney Morning Domain just pushing the property angle.

I don't think most Chinese property investment companies jump out to buy with just 2 or 3 weeks due diligence. Heck I'd say it be nigh impossible to get all the legals worked through in that time.

But hey, ut's never been a better time to buy, especially in WA. One of their talking heads is predicting the WA market is going to catch up to the east coast next year due to the slow growth recently.

The future of Australian property prices

Mrmagoo

rimtas

sptrawler

sydboy007

sydboy007

nioka

sydboy007

waterbottle

sydboy007

qldfrog

sydboy007

sptrawler

qldfrog

Smurf1976

sptrawler

sydboy007

qldfrog

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

notting

sydboy007

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