The future of Australian property prices

apgb8 · 12 June 2012

I'd hate to sound like i haven't studied all the economics (which i have) and dispite this, i still highly doubt there will be that large a property burst as people think. Yes prices are technically highly overvalued, and purchasing a property is highly unattractive with such high overheads resulting in low amounts of disposable income. But in saying this you cannot deny (especially from someone living in Perth atm) housing is the best investment with such high growth occuring in Australia.

Higher population growth will mean less dwellings (for which there already is shortage for), and even with a property bubble scare, people will always need a place to live, if they're not purchasing, they're renting which means higher rental yields. There will be stagnent times, and now is probably a time, but long term (which is the reason you invest in property) you'll always come off on top, either through capital gains or rental yields.

MR. · 12 June 2012

apgb8 said:
But in saying this you cannot deny (especially from someone living in Perth atm) housing is the best investment with such high growth occuring in Australia.

Growth as in Population Growth. Best investment????

young-gun · 12 June 2012

apgb8 said:
I'd hate to sound like i haven't studied all the economics (which i have) and dispite this, i still highly doubt there will be that large a property burst as people think. Yes prices are technically highly overvalued, and purchasing a property is highly unattractive with such high overheads resulting in low amounts of disposable income. But in saying this you cannot deny (especially from someone living in Perth atm) housing is the best investment with such high growth occuring in Australia.

Higher population growth will mean less dwellings (for which there already is shortage for), and even with a property bubble scare, people will always need a place to live, if they're not purchasing, they're renting which means higher rental yields. There will be stagnent times, and now is probably a time, but long term (which is the reason you invest in property) you'll always come off on top, either through capital gains or rental yields.

is that you? sparticus?

numbercruncher · 12 June 2012

apgb8 said:
I'd hate to sound like i haven't studied all the economics (which i have) and dispite this, i still highly doubt there will be that large a property burst as people think. Yes prices are technically highly overvalued, and purchasing a property is highly unattractive with such high overheads resulting in low amounts of disposable income. But in saying this you cannot deny (especially from someone living in Perth atm) housing is the best investment with such high growth occuring in Australia.

Higher population growth will mean less dwellings (for which there already is shortage for), and even with a property bubble scare, people will always need a place to live, if they're not purchasing, they're renting which means higher rental yields. There will be stagnent times, and now is probably a time, but long term (which is the reason you invest in property) you'll always come off on top, either through capital gains or rental yields.

Welcome back Robots ! We like the peaches and cream approach better

apgb8 · 12 June 2012

young-gun said:
is that you? sparticus?

no

numbercruncher said:
Welcome back Robots ! We like the peaches and cream approach better

i'm not following...

MR. said:
Growth as in Population Growth. Best investment????

well economic and population growth, especially in WA

herzy · 12 June 2012

MR. said:
Growth as in Population Growth. Best investment????

huh?

Mr Z · 13 June 2012

McLovin said:
The unpaid tax in many states attaches to the property, not the owner. So whoever buys the property will have to pay the unpaid tax.

That basically what I meant when I said that the property will be sold for its back tax. Until they they need a responsible party to chase for the money, which is what they are lacking! It is a revenue hole in the short term and because the property is taxed at the value you purchased it for the lower resale values are also hurting state coffers.

Mr Z · 13 June 2012

apgb8 said:
I'd hate to sound like i haven't studied all the economics (which i have) and dispite this, i still highly doubt there will be that large a property burst as people think. Yes prices are technically highly overvalued, and purchasing a property is highly unattractive with such high overheads resulting in low amounts of disposable income. But in saying this you cannot deny (especially from someone living in Perth atm) housing is the best investment with such high growth occuring in Australia.

Higher population growth will mean less dwellings (for which there already is shortage for), and even with a property bubble scare, people will always need a place to live, if they're not purchasing, they're renting which means higher rental yields. There will be stagnent times, and now is probably a time, but long term (which is the reason you invest in property) you'll always come off on top, either through capital gains or rental yields.

In the end all property markets are local, there are places in the US that are doing OK despite the national wreckage. Mind you they tend to be the places that didn't bubble so much in the first place.

damien275x · 13 June 2012

apgb8 said:
no

i'm not following...

well economic and population growth, especially in WA

Oh but you are. Ive studied psychology and people feel more of a need to play dumb when they're lying. If you were not following you would not have replied at all. Hello robots

Uncle Festivus · 13 June 2012

tech/a said:
I personally think it's close to where it will rest now.
It will rest at these levels for sometime many years.
Unless there is a massive dump in Europe and Asia.

Interest rates are really low.
They will turn so bear this in mind.

A property paradigm shift for the baby boomers?

Massive dump underway = check
China gluts happening = check
End of commodities bubble for Aus = check

Or perhaps it's just the beginning of the real crash.....when the recession begins in earnest?

I give it 6-8 months to show up here in official figures.......it may already be too late to sell your IP (at the price you want)?

China's imports of copper are expected to drop for a third straight month in May as unfavorable prices and high stockpiles of the metal at the world's top consumer continues to erode demand

defaults by Chinese buyers for some bulk commodities

In the race for sales, India's carmakers may need to ease off the accelerator as they speed towards a head-on collision with a capacity glut.

China’s biggest auto-dealer association said carmakers need to scale back their sales targets or sweeten incentives because the worsening glut of vehicles across the nation’s dealerships is unsustainable

etc etc etc

Aussiejeff · 13 June 2012

Uncle Festivus said:
A property paradigm shift for the baby boomers?

Massive dump underway = check
China gluts happening = check
End of commodities bubble for Aus = check

Or perhaps it's just the beginning of the real crash.....when the recession begins in earnest?

I give it 6-8 months to show up here in official figures.......it may already be too late to sell your IP (at the price you want)?

China's imports of copper are expected to drop for a third straight month in May as unfavorable prices and high stockpiles of the metal at the world's top consumer continues to erode demand

defaults by Chinese buyers for some bulk commodities

In the race for sales, India's carmakers may need to ease off the accelerator as they speed towards a head-on collision with a capacity glut.

China’s biggest auto-dealer association said carmakers need to scale back their sales targets or sweeten incentives because the worsening glut of vehicles across the nation’s dealerships is unsustainable

etc etc etc

Tsk, tsk Mr Festivus. :frown:

You are so......UN-Australian for talking DOWN the economy!

[size=-2][Written & spoken by Herr Pain Schwann on behalf of the S.O.P. (Supreme Optimists Party)] [/size]

Heil!!!

Mr Z · 13 June 2012

Don't forget that China has just sent a lot of stimulus down the pipe and that lending is already up significantly. This will mean higher prices in a while. They seem stock pile on low prices and divest on high, they play the game when it comes to commodities IMO.

China has HUGE scope when it come to stimulus, they have a 40 year plus US play book to learn from after all. They are just starting out in that respect.

young-gun · 13 June 2012

Mr Z said:
Don't forget that China has just sent a lot of stimulus down the pipe and that lending is already up significantly. This will mean higher prices in a while. They seem stock pile on low prices and divest on high, they play the game when it comes to commodities IMO.

China has HUGE scope when it come to stimulus, they have a 40 year plus US play book to learn from after all. They are just starting out in that respect.

you're not really taking those lending figures out of china seriously are you? one month it's flat as a tac, the next its almost record breaking? seems a bit strange...

Mr Z · 13 June 2012

young-gun said:
you're not really taking those lending figures out of china seriously are you? one month it's flat as a tac, the next its almost record breaking? seems a bit strange...

Absolutely, that is the direct control that manipulating reserve ratios gives you. They are worried, Europe is their biggest customer... IMO you would be foolish to think that you somehow know better.

young-gun · 13 June 2012

Mr Z said:
Absolutely, that is the direct control that manipulating reserve ratios gives you. They are worried, Europe is their biggest customer... IMO you would be foolish to think that you somehow know better.

just an opinion Z I only have this view from skimming articles where alot of people seem to think chinas figures aren't worth the paper they're printed on. I also wouldn't have thought that they would have seen such a fast reaction.

explod · 13 June 2012

young-gun said:
just an opinion Z I only have this view from skimming articles where alot of people seem to think chinas figures aren't worth the paper they're printed on. I also wouldn't have thought that they would have seen such a fast reaction.

Agree, my sources seem to indicate similar. As with Japan, China is turning inward and the game with Auz and our resources is over in my view.

Mr Z · 13 June 2012

young-gun said:
just an opinion Z I only have this view from skimming articles where alot of people seem to think chinas figures aren't worth the paper they're printed on. I also wouldn't have thought that they would have seen such a fast reaction.

It matters not if they are political numbers, which government has untainted numbers after all? It signals intent, reserve ratios cut, interest rates cut, borrowing up ---> that is a powerful signal to the market from a government that has the resources to stimulate like no other on this planet. It is to be taken seriously in the mid term and will have an impact.

explod · 14 June 2012

Mr Z said:
It matters not if they are political numbers, which government has untainted numbers after all? It signals intent, reserve ratios cut, interest rates cut, borrowing up ---> that is a powerful signal to the market from a government that has the resources to stimulate like no other on this planet. It is to be taken seriously in the mid term and will have an impact.

Agree, but private leverage and employment will be issues for some time now.

And talking to my Estate Agent here at Mornington yesterday says its starting to get ugly. Mount Martha okay but a very different demographic along the secluded beaches.

He he, that cold at the moment makes you wonder.

DB008 · 14 June 2012

Westpac Chief outlook

Westpac managing director Gail Kelly says compound growth in house prices are over for good

AUSTRALIA is unlikely to ever see the housing boom that sparked a massive rise in personal wealth across the country in the past decade, Westpac managing director Gail Kelly told the economic forum in Brisbane yesterday.
In a closed session, Ms Kelly told business leaders that the years of compound growth in house prices were over for good.
She also said Australians were rejecting the high levels of debt that allowed them to borrow vast sums against the equity in their house.

http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/westpac-managing-director-gail-kelly-says-years-of-compound-growth-in-house-prices-are-over-for-good/story-e6frfmd9-1226395093277

sptrawler · 14 June 2012

DB008 said:
Westpac Chief outlook

http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/westpac-managing-director-gail-kelly-says-years-of-compound-growth-in-house-prices-are-over-for-good/story-e6frfmd9-1226395093277

The reason it is over is because the banks are tightening their lending practices. So Gail would know, if anyone would.

The future of Australian property prices

apgb8

MR.

young-gun

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

apgb8

herzy

Mr Z

Mr Z

damien275x

Uncle Festivus

Aussiejeff

Mr Z

young-gun

Mr Z

young-gun

explod

explod

Mr Z

explod

explod

DB008

sptrawler

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