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The future of Australian property prices

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Perhaps they work in the city and can't afford to catch a helicopter to work?
Cuts down commuting time. You can't buy time (yet)
 
Mofra said:
Perhaps they work in the city and can't afford to catch a helicopter to work?
Cuts down commuting time. You can't buy time (yet)
Click to expand...

Yet, are able to afford a $20mil mansion?
 
Is the basic concept of supply and demand is relevant here?

1. In Melbourne for one, there seems to be a shortage of rental properties, rent prices are going up (I think the population is increasing) so there's security in buying for investment, this would create buying competition, thereby sustain prices.

2. With the growing popularity of bicyles and public transport, and fuel prices climbing again - I know some professionals who don't even bother to own a car any more - the inner city lifestyle seems set to continue to gain favour.

3. The uncertainty surrounding beachside properties re the global warming scenario would have to undermine value of those properties (I heard insurance companies are starting to factor this in?), it would have to support value of other real estate which is not affected?

I have heard an argument that Australia will experience a real estate bust such as USA did just delayed, but somehow the idea does not tally with what I see happening around me.

Any thoughts any one?

G
 
gman027 said:
Is the basic concept of supply and demand is relevant here?
Click to expand...

Not really, most ignore the concept of price within the supply and demand equation.

That is, price will always rise because demand will ALWAYS be greater than supply. Anyone could find any argument to build their case on forever increase in demand. From that logic, it means the level of price will NEVER matter because houses are always "cheap" based on the supply and demand equation. It is never expensive.

Their logic, end of story.

gman said:
I have heard an argument that Australia will experience a real estate bust such as USA did just delayed, but somehow the idea does not tally with what I see happening around me.

Any thoughts any one?

G
Click to expand...

Considering how much government intervention was involved in propping up the market through low interest rates and first home buyer grant, as well as the amount of stimulus in internal capital investment in China which has greatly benefit our economy, it's no longer it has not yet happened.

But does it mean it will NEVER happen?

I don't need to discuss the intervention parts. Sooner or later the artificial boost will be gone, but perhaps it would extend further. It's a human choice in this one.

And onto our economy being so resilient to the GFC largely thanks to China. Is their massive capital investment really sustainable? I am certainly not that convinced.

http://www.pivotcapital.com/reports/Chinas_Investment_Boom_the_Great_Leap_into_the_Unknown.pdf
 
hello,

but Temjin, US has extremely low IR's and the housing market is still smacked because of guns, crack, crooklyn, absolute terrible way of life

many forget or discount what is out the front door in Australia, Utopia, paradise, a way of life which exceeds all others

the whitelight, an endless feeling of euphoria

sorry sorry, thats what my research indicates

thankyou
professor robots
 

Hhhhmmmm, not so sure about your logic. Sounds great.

Anyhow back to the real world. Listened to a rather pre-eminant economist on the subject on Wed and his logic is somewhat different: the US in most mkts has had a shocker, but not all (EG NY). In his opinion coastal or financial center cities tend do do much better in a downturn (if get affected at all). Note nearly every major city in this country. Also in particular Melb and Syd get the double whammy due to their being financial centers. He also stated that per capita income was not as an important indicator as in the past due to dual incomes (or more) per household. Also non-recourse loans had an impact. China. Supply. Etc, etc.

In sum he stated would not be surprised if prices came off at little in the New Year but that would be all.

Interesting.
 
I have read heaps of crap on the closed threads, dont make it like them. The mods should just delete irrelevant.

Anyway, I suppose put my 2 bobs worth in.

Housing prices will remain stable and continue to grow, just to mention a few of my reasons including.
Wage Growth released yesterday showed a 5% increase to wages.
Net Migration to Australia, particulary Victoria will keep house prices boosted.
Generation Y stating to move out of home and buy/rent
The older people living longer.

These are my reasons,no please feel free to shoot me down.

I did read something interesting from a private wealth group recently that stated that if you should only consider your property portfolio as the amount of deposit and holding costs you outlay. Now this was referring back to benchmark asset allocation for investment portfolios, but i belive this can be applied to many younger peoples on here portfolios.
Think about this.

Go get a 5% deposit for your a property, prob 1 year saving for alot of couples who dont have the big expenses. Then this deposit becomes your property investment. The interest that you outlay is your holding cost as youd be paying rent anway, and your excess cash princial repayents is discretionary investment. You could run the loan interest only and your princiapl payments could be put into the sharemarket or other things.

Now you have achieved two things by doing the above.
1) Satisfied a need of shelter
2) Bought a long term growth asset - property
3) divirsified your portfolio by building assets around your property.

Now anyone care to comment?, Any thoughts on this theory??
 
JUSTINE Kain has come to dread weekends. The prospective first home buyer has spent most Friday nights this year on her computer looking at apartment listings for under $320,000.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/n...ouse-prices-to-keep-rising-20091030-hpyx.html ......... For the full article.

Houses over $1.4 million and units over $850,000 had the greatest price growth in the September quarter. In leafy Armadale 34 houses were sold in the September quarter ”” prices have doubled in the past year; and Surrey Hills, in the east, had 39 sales in the quarter, which bought with them a 24.9 per cent price jump for the period.

I have a vague recollection of typing that residential real estate has the ability to gain 20% IN CERTAIN AREAS .... if my memory serves me correctly?
 
Do you know how much(if any) those suburbs dropped previously?

Just had a quick look at REIV for those suburbs, below are the charts.
Surray Hills has pulled back to near 07 median, but Armadale has surpassed the 07 median.

cheers
 

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MACCA350 said:
Do you know how much(if any) those suburbs dropped previously?

Just had a quick look at REIV for those suburbs, below are the charts.
Surray Hills has pulled back to near 07 median, but Armadale has surpassed the 07 median.

cheers
Click to expand...

Does anyone know where to get charts like this for Queensland? I had a look at the REIQ site, but can't seem to find it.

BTW, I am glad this thread has been re-opened. Provided offending posters are dealt with accordingly, hopefully this thread can be kept on track and provide useful information similar to other threads here at ASF.
 
MACCA350 said:
Do you know how much(if any) those suburbs dropped previously?

Just had a quick look at REIV for those suburbs, below are the charts.
Surray Hills has pulled back to near 07 median, but Armadale has surpassed the 07 median.

cheers
Click to expand...

Thanks MACCA350 ....... similar to shares I guess. When the blood runs in the street is always the best time to buy. Other than a marriage breakdown of course. Still some good rates of return out there and YES there is some property that you would not touch. I repeat myself, IN CERTAIN AREAS.
 
hello,

great post Gerkin, thats the path to paradsie alright brother

and just to add to your list I BELIEVE many realise we living in one beautiful country,

beaches, shopping, lifestyle, fine dining, top class governments, bicycle paths, just utopia

these are MY reasons, so shoot me down i am ready

to all concerned, will get the auction clearance rates up as soon as Enzo the Legend bangs them up

thankyou
robots
 
robots said:
and just to add to your list I BELIEVE many realise we living in one beautiful country,

beaches, shopping, lifestyle, fine dining, top class governments, bicycle paths, just utopia
Click to expand...

Cant argue with that Brother Robots........
 
Gerkin said:
Housing prices will remain stable and continue to grow, just to mention a few of my reasons including.
Wage Growth released yesterday showed a 5% increase to wages.
Click to expand...

Where do these statistics come from?
Maybe they are last year's because this year employers have the upper hand.
I have yet to find 1 person who got more than 3% % payrise this year
 
Gerkin

Something is not right with your post.
If you've bought an investment property how are you satisfying your need for shelter as per your point 1?
 
billv said:
I have yet to find 1 person who got more than 3% % payrise this year
Click to expand...

Off topic, but this year i got a 4% pay rise for my current casual job, and the job i am going to just gave me a 10% payrise before i have even started...
 
some insights from Trends Research on property....
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=14680

The Commercial Real Estate Bubble
......
.....Gerald Celente, the head of the Trends Research Institute, the major trend-forecasting agency in the world, wrote in May of 2009 of the “bailout bubble.” Celente’s forecasts are not to be taken lightly, as he accurately predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the fall of the Soviet Union, the 1998 Russian economic collapse, the 1997 East Asian economic crisis, the 2000 Dot-Com bubble burst, the 2001 recession, the start of a recession in 2007 and the housing market collapse of 2008, among other things.

On May 13, 2009, Celente released a Trend Alert, reporting that, “The biggest financial bubble in history is being inflated in plain sight,” and that, “This is the Mother of All Bubbles, and when it explodes [...] it will signal the end to the boom/bust cycle that has characterized economic activity throughout the developed world.” Further, “This is much bigger than the Dot-com and Real Estate bubbles which hit speculators, investors and financiers the hardest. However destructive the effects of these busts on employment, savings and productivity, the Free Market Capitalist framework was left intact. But when the 'Bailout Bubble' explodes, the system goes with it.”

Celente further explained that, “Phantom dollars, printed out of thin air, backed by nothing ... and producing next to nothing ... defines the ‘Bailout Bubble.’ Just as with the other bubbles, so too will this one burst. But unlike Dot-com and Real Estate, when the "Bailout Bubble" pops, neither the President nor the Federal Reserve will have the fiscal fixes or monetary policies available to inflate another.” Celente elaborated, “Given the pattern of governments to parlay egregious failures into mega-failures, the classic trend they follow, when all else fails, is to take their nation to war,” and that, “While we cannot pinpoint precisely when the 'Bailout Bubble' will burst, we are certain it will. When it does, it should be understood that a major war could follow.”

http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html
 
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