This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

The future of Australian property prices

Jump to new

I agree that higher density is the only option for Australian cities. However NIMBYism will fight it at every stage. We are seeing several suburbs protesting now over the Brisbane city councils changes to zoning in areas are major transport hubs. Also we need better quality multi dwelling units, having lived in Europe for 10 years, apartments there are much better than what gets built here.
 
Go Nuke said:
Hmmm no suprise there.....dispite what the government says I see average people all around me doing it tough! Especially after all these rate hikes.
Click to expand...

Hi Go Nuke,

May ask were these people mortgage holders before 2009 and if so how did they manage when interest rates were significantly higher?

If they purchase in 2009, did they expect that IR's would stay at historical lows?

Cheers
 
ABS Dwelling Commencements out today.. some strong rises in construction which may please the bulls, or maybe the opposite if they enjoy the shortage continuing We need new homes if we're going to keep immigration at the rate the Government is allowing, so it's a good thing really. Will this be the start of the construction boom everybody is after?

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8750.0?OpenDocument

Anyhow, was curious, so have put together a pretty chart for Dwelling Commencements for the States going back to 1984 until the Dec 09 qrtr.

If you look at it from a simple housing demand vs supply only argument.. .You've got some big rises in VIC, which you would wish for with the strong population growth going on. May help prices subdue somewhat. NSW maybe leading to some further price growth there if the construction doesn't improve very quickly. QLD and WA starting to uptick again, again maybe some supply pressures could appear there too.

What would be quite interesting is dwellings vs population growth per state, but that somebody else can do that one, would take a bit of time to put together.
 

Attachments

  • dwellings_commenced_Dec09.gif
    40.5 KB · Views: 3
satanoperca said:
Hi Go Nuke,

May ask were these people mortgage holders before 2009 and if so how did they manage when interest rates were significantly higher?

If they purchase in 2009, did they expect that IR's would stay at historical lows?

Cheers
Click to expand...

Hi,

I guess I was speaking generally.
When interest rates were high, property prices were high (or for lack of a better term "unaffordable" and it looked like people were doing it tough.

But now we haveslightly higher interest rates but property prices are now even more "unaffordable" so it doesn't take much of an increase in rates to cause more pain...especially for those that recently entered the morgage market.

The $400K we will be borrowing is going to consume almost all of my income, so we will live of my partners income. $400K doesn't get you much these days in Brisbane (house) Thats paying more than the ANZ variable rate of about 6.91%.

This might explain what I mean...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...se-a-bit-further/story-e6frg926-1225841899447

Note the "higher household debt" comment.

Got to run sorry...
 
From above link
RESERVE Bank of Australia assistant governor Guy Debelle said today interest rates were likely to rise further but noted that higher levels of household debt meant changes to monetary policy had a larger impact than in the past.
Click to expand...

So when do we reach debt saturation/inability to service debt in the property market?

Small changes in IR's are starting to have a great negative effect on a larger percentage of the market than before?

Cheers
 
Go Nuke said:
The $400K we will be borrowing is going to consume almost all of my income, so we will live of my partners income. $400K doesn't get you much these days in Brisbane (house) Thats paying more than the ANZ variable rate of about 6.91%.
Click to expand...

I can’t begin to explain the absurdity of house prises rising over the past 12 months. Among other things a major contributor was the fact of lower interest rates. I can’t comprehend loaning near 400k but do understand any disappointment that you might have with high and higher prices.

To my demise the RBA might just stop raising interest rates from where they stand. "Kincella" appears to have the same instinct. This will no doubt help with your endeavours if rates are now held steady. However probability equates to, houses will keep rising if rates stay where they are. Not right away, but sooner rather than later once the change of tone sets in of rates being steady. The outcome would conclude in rates rising further if the economy is sound. If the banking sector can curve property investment by revising LVR’s etc, this may do the trick to cool the property market.

Just my opinion.
 
My motto this month is...can you think outside the square you live in ?

I just love the mantra of rising interest rates...with no regard for the conseqences....loss of jobs, business shuts down.....yadda yadda
same as the last time these fools at the RBA kept raising them month after month.....obviously smoking bad weed, living in fairlyand....then the mud hit the fan, they dropped the rates 3% bang....that was a really bad dose of weed that day
........back to the real world....excluding the govts and the press...

so not everyone is stuck with the obsessive Melb median price, as a guide to buy their homes....they moved further out, now showing 20% gains year on year for their trouble...with a rise of over 200% for 10 consistent years
they are smart people....thank goodness, not all are stuck in the "closed box mode", feeling helpless....

extract only

North and western suburbs lead Melbourne 's thriving property market Katie Bice From: Herald Sun March 18, 2010 12:00AM
NORTH and western suburbs are the rags to riches story of Melbourne's thriving property market.
Formerly downtrodden suburbs are now darlings with buyers who have pushed median prices up as much as 240 per cent in a decade.

Areas north and west of the city are leading the charge with prices skyrocketing in Broadmeadows, Maidstone, Sunshine, Glenroy and Thomastown.

They outstripped ritzy addresses like Canterbury for 10-year growth.

Real Estate Institute of Victoria research manager Robert Larocca said buyers were searching for value for money close to the city.

"Places that were undervalued and didn't create a lot of excitement or interest from buyers 10 years and more ago have become much more highly treasured and sought after and in demand," he said.


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/no...-property-market/story-e6frf7jo-1225842079723
 
copied my post from another site...
where we have been discussing other things, including the merits of sniffing out opportunities, like where a massive black coal site is proposed, in a little hick town in regional Australia....if it goes ahead, 20 year mine life, a block of land can be found for between 11,000 to over 30,000 in that place or surrounding towns....a new workforce of 650.... etc...
.............................................................................................
going by some of the articles I posted today...there is definately a different culture, and movement, going on out there in suburbia and the regionals......

people are turning their backs on the emphasis and depression of the inner city mantra, and high cost of housing......
they are obviously not going to play that silly game....

they are out there buying affordable housing, and are intent on having a normal healthy lifestyle.....

basically telling the govnuts and the banks to get stuffed....
with those two so focused on destroying family lives and values..all for the personal greed of those involved at the highest levels...with their flocks of sheep following, herded into the helpless mentality, destinied to follow the mantra of stupidity, straight off the cliff....into a slave like existence....of just paying off a mortgage, where all other aspects of family life are destroyed.

its like turning the clock back 20 years, to affordability levels....
 

Little bit lost with your arguement Kincella.

Low interest rates saw housing prices climb fast, now that they are returning to normal it is no good. The RBA doesn't know how to do it job?

Didn't see you complaining when they dropped interest rates to historically low to keep the market afloat.

How does high house prices benefit people. the more they have to pay the less they have to spend.

Parents are now working two jobs while the kids are in childcare.

Pensioners are struggling because of the low interest rates, but who cares about them as long as property keeps on going up, f---k everyone else.

If the property market is not in a bubble and is working on fundamentals then a return to normal interest rates should not effect it. But we all know without low interest rates and govnuts handouts it cannot sustain the current levels of growth.

If more people focused less on property and more on innovation and creativity in the market place this country would be a whole lot more wealthy.

Oh that right, property is the path to financial freedom for all.

Cheers
 
of course you dont get my argument....
I have never stated it is good to pay high prices in the inner subrubs....where most of you focus your effort on regarding prices....and hence the mantra to raise interest rates to lower the prices in the inner suburbs.....that seems to be the only reason......
if you shifted focus to the outer suburbs...there is no reason to raise rates....
none at all....
the prices are a damn side less in the outer suburbs....dare I say even very affordable....and that is where the shift is heading......

nothing wrong with a rise of 10% in the outer suburbs house prices....it just keeps pace with inflation....inflation affects all suburbs....

the other side is so many on these forums are waiting for a massive correction, and then they are afraid if house prices drop more after buying, they are afraid of so many ifs and buts...like a rabbit in the glare of headlights...frozen in time
they would never dream of going to a cheaper suburb....where prices will not suffer a massive loss
whilst the rest of society finds a solution and gets on with their lives...
higher rates equals less disposable income for retail therapy.....huge amount of job losses in all small business....so is that the spin off that you desire

pensioners can get good rates of between 6-8% most of the time.....on longer term deposits....with a pension which increases each quarter....
but god help them if they are still renting in the private market...public housing costs only a 1/4 of their pension...
I dont just earn my income from housing.....but being innovative with housing earns some good returns.....
most of the workers out there have no time for innovation...just barely keeping their heads above water....cause they are stuck in this ...high priced inner city mantra....merry go round
 
kincella said:
the other side is so many on these forums are waiting for a massive correction, and then they are afraid if house prices drop more after buying, they are afraid of so many ifs and buts...like a rabbit in the glare of headlights...frozen in time
Click to expand...

Where are all these people on this forum that are waiting for a massive correction?

If inner city prices go down, do you think out suburbs prices will hold?

Cheers
 
Port Hedland and Karratha are as outer suburban as it gets and a graphic example of property price madness.
 
Currently up here we have mineworkers doing 2 on 1 off ...on there week off they are driving taxi,s , working at a roadhouse and others forgoing there week off just to make ends meet ......... There partners are also having to work fulltime ..........childcare centres are benefitting tho.

All this while intrest rates remain low


Sunshine and lollipops ? or a case of biting off more than one can chew?

Looks like the "great australian dream" has turned into more of a nightmare for a few of our younger familys.

Lucky country?
 
Nun
Interesting comments - I have a couple of friends up north, they moved there about 5 years ago cos he landed a good job. Between the two of them they are on about $350k/pa. They are running around investing like mad, with a goal to quit working forevever within the next 3-5 years (before she hits the ripe old age of 30 no less).
Its interesting that I came through the "white collar" system (uni - office job - management etc) and did very well at it. Meanwhile most of my mates took the "blue collar" system (tech school - trade - apprentiships), and now all earn double (sometimes tripple) my salary and only work 50% of the year. Meanwhile I was putting in 60-70hour weeks and would get 4 weeks leave (if I was lucky).

I guess Im just pointing out that there is always a flip side!

Regards
82
 
Read this recently.. allthough couldn't find the exact quote however this one will do..

"During the past 18 months, more than 135,000 first-home buyers have entered the market, encouraged by the generous grants and stamp-duty relief.

As a result, more than 50 per cent of first-home owners are forecast to be in the "mortgage stress" category by the end of this year."

This is what i have been expecting to happen. especially with Rising utility costs.

so it will be these Outer suburbs that have recently been driven up in price by the swarm of FHB that will dive by huge amounts as they sell to cover themselves from all there debt..

DYOR, please note i will be a FHB but plan not to fall into this category my purchase is planned on 10% interest rates from the bank
 
Was in Queenstown NZ last month, mate has just bought a flat over looking the lake for 620k, it was sold two years ago for 1.2mil, the top end of the market in NZ looks bad.
 


I went to visit an old mate on the weekend who recently got married. He's a first home buyer and he went and bought a 400K home and his wife is unemployed.

Why do first home owners want everything now? Start off small in a 2br home and work your way up. I highly doubt anyone will live in their first home until they retire and that's the mentality that alot of first home owners have...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

3
Future of $100,000 overland tourer Aussie lifestyle and the EV era
2
Replies
21
Views
2K
qldfrog
A
The future of Astraya
2 3
Replies
45
Views
8K
SirRumpole
Ultimate Acronym List (UAL)
Replies
0
Views
5K
Dividend
A
Factors affecting property prices
Replies
3
Views
11K
Space Invader101
Australia's own Ponzi scheme: the property market
Replies
4
Views
5K
Glen48
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...