The future of Australian property prices

MrBurns · 5 April 2012

The future of property prices in Australia hinges almost exclusively on interest rates.

It's become a national sport ro bash the banks and intimidate the RBA to keep rates low and the worse the economy gets the lower they will go.

If economic circumstances mean rates have to rise that will be the end, hundreds of thousands of people will default on mortgages and the political fallout wil be immense.

So every effort will be put into steering away from that scenerio, but the fudging can't go on forever, things will change, rates will have to rise, but when... is anyones guess.

In the meantime the property market justs drifts down slowly not because of interest rates but because prices are too high and people are no longer prepared to buy on optimism alone.

trainspotter · 5 April 2012

wayneL said:
I guess those developers in Spain were streets ahead too.

LOL WayneL ...... Big diffference from building 200 apartments in Spain compared to knocking up a strata title 10 unit development in a safe as suburb !! Or putting a speccie on the market in a well heeled division with proven sales evidence !!

BWTFWIK?? Carry on ..... as you were

wayneL · 5 April 2012

Agreed,

Not a bad spot Wandina, if you like Gero.

lenny · 5 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
Well you know, it's a thread on house prices, so I thought I'd lay out a clear and coherent argument for why house prices are going to fall long into the future. In the event that anyone looks to such a thread in trying to decide whether now is the right time to buy property, I was hoping it would deter them from doing so, and thus save their lives from debt slavery on a rapidly depreciating asset.

My very simplistic view is that as long there is jobs, there will be no crash.

Correction yes, buyers market yes, slow to no growth ST, all which is healthy imo.

I hope your pursuit in waiting to 2030 to buy a property pays off, you could just pay off a mortgage in 28 years instead of paying rent for 28 years.

trainspotter · 5 April 2012

tech/a said:
I can't be bothered discussing subjects where people just bludgeon their views on posters who quite frankly are streets in front of their theories.

Anyway carry on
Circular rubbish which satisfies your view of sitting and watching
Is exactly what you should have

AAAAAahhhhhhhhhh but it keeps the mind active !! A bit of sabre rattling never hurt anyone. It is when they go for the jugular .... then it becomes interesting.

People frozen by fear or lack of experience amazes me that they are the first to bleat about NOT doing something whether it be bungee jumping or trading in the market to dipping their toe in the RE world.

Crapping on about CPI to GDP to DSR to IAH is also a load of wank. If you are playing with monopoly money it would mean something. If you are picking the eyes out of the market in a closed loop than it is irrelevant.

Pick your target and manage your profitability and make sure that IF it does not sell that the RENTAL INCOME is the same amount as the INTEREST COMPONENT. Ooooppps have told too much now. Back in my box.

Unless you have done it before than .......... STFU !!!!!!!! No experience is exactly that.

trainspotter · 5 April 2012

wayneL said:
Agreed,

Not a bad spot Wandina, if you like Gero.

Fishing is insane !! Market is patchy at best with sales both under and over the sweet line. Weather is sublime (when it is not blowing dogs off chains)

rryall · 5 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
Did you also do it straight out of uni as you begin your career? If so, I'd love to hear about your experience.

I was offered a job in the Caribbean immediately after University which I accepted. Was one of the biggest decisions of my life which I have no regrets about. Amazing experience!

tech/a · 5 April 2012

Big diffference from building 200 apartments in Spain compared to knocking up a strata title 10 unit development in a safe as suburb !! Or putting a speccie on the market in a well heeled division with proven sales evidence !!

Exactly.

However the <30 yr old armchair economists with < a deposit to buy a car who havent been to Europe or US let alone developed anything bigger than a cold---know better---err profess to know better.

prawn_86 · 5 April 2012

rryall said:
I was offered a job in the Caribbean immediately after University which I accepted. Was one of the biggest decisions of my life which I have no regrets about. Amazing experience!

Hi rryall,

I have been looking at finance jobs in the Carribean also. If you mind me asking how did you go about getting one?

PM me if you can please

professor_frink · 5 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
It's pretty much impossible to not make money in trading, I fail to see why everyone doesn't do it. It's not even hard. The real challenge is getting something like 1000% pa returns. Fortunately there is leverage

Big call there.

I remember we had a member on this forum a couple of years ago that used to make similar statements about how easy trading was, and how he was naturally good at it and the like.

Find out a few months later that the guy was swinging a rather small trading account, and then when he decided to start a journal to document his trades, all he did was waffle on about missed opportunities with the benefit of hindsight.

Obviously left the forum to troll elsewhere not long after that.

Seems to be that the only people who make comments about how easy trading is are the ones yet to actually take any real money out of it.

Why don't you start a thread and document some of your trading real time and demonstrate how easy it is?

Could be some great inspiration for mere mortals like myself

tech/a · 5 April 2012

Why don't you start a thread and document some of your trading real time and demonstrate how easy it is?

What and show you ----
Why would he ----

I agree.

Infact With or without leverage Id BET (And Ill bet $500 to Joe if Im wrong---as its a far more worthy cause) he will blow up (fail spectacularly) over a 12 mth period.

Look forward to it.

McLovin · 5 April 2012

prawn_86 said:
Hi rryall,

I have been looking at finance jobs in the Carribean also. If you mind me asking how did you go about getting one?

PM me if you can please

I had a work offer to the Cayman Islands a few years ago. I turned it down. It costs a fortune to live there ($7-$8 for a loaf of bread) and it's boring as bat ****; there's only so much sitting on a beach drinking rum you can do. The bloke who ended up going lasted 4 months and was back in London.

If you're looking for high cost of living by the beach, you don't need to live Australia.

odds-on · 5 April 2012

trainspotter said:
AAAAAahhhhhhhhhh but it keeps the mind active !! A bit of sabre rattling never hurt anyone. It is when they go for the jugular .... then it becomes interesting.

People frozen by fear or lack of experience amazes me that they are the first to bleat about NOT doing something whether it be bungee jumping or trading in the market to dipping their toe in the RE world.

Crapping on about CPI to GDP to DSR to IAH is also a load of wank. If you are playing with monopoly money it would mean something. If you are picking the eyes out of the market in a closed loop than it is irrelevant.

Pick your target and manage your profitability and make sure that IF it does not sell that the RENTAL INCOME is the same amount as the INTEREST COMPONENT. Ooooppps have told too much now. Back in my box.

Unless you have done it before than .......... STFU !!!!!!!! No experience is exactly that.

I have always thought that there is an art to property investment and I doff my cap to it. However I have never got my head round finances of it all, everybody I have met to date who invests in property does "special accounting". Most seem to have leveraged to the max, put additional capital in over the years and worked many hours managing tenants/properties for what I guesstimate is a CAGR of less than 5%. Bonkers.

wayneL · 5 April 2012

tech/a said:
What and show you ----
Why would he ----

I agree.

Infact With or without leverage Id BET (And Ill bet $500 to Joe if Im wrong---as its a far more worthy cause) he will blow up (fail spectacularly) over a 12 mth period.

Look forward to it.

I'll go ya halves.

That I would like to see.

Starcraftmazter · 5 April 2012

lenny said:
I hope your pursuit in waiting to 2030 to buy a property pays off, you could just pay off a mortgage in 28 years instead of paying rent for 28 years.

There is no way in hell I am paying for a mortgage for 28 years. Do you have any idea how crazy that even sounds? Don't get me started...

I also don't see how Australia is going to get any real wage growth going into the future - our already ridiculously high wages make us uncompetitive. If wages are going to do anything over the next decade, it is to go down.

professor_frink said:
Why don't you start a thread and document some of your trading real time and demonstrate how easy it is?

I actually have a similar but an even better idea. I am planning to write trading software over the course of the next year or so, and what I will do is make the signals from it public with a small delay so that I can get in/out before anyone who decides to pay attention to it. And some period of time after that, I will of course start charging for it's use

tech/a · 5 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
There is no way in hell I am paying for a mortgage for 28 years. Do you have any idea how crazy that even sounds? Don't get me started...

I also don't see how Australia is going to get any real wage growth going into the future - our already ridiculously high wages make us uncompetitive. If wages are going to do anything over the next decade, it is to go down.

I actually have a similar but an even better idea. I am planning to write trading software over the course of the next year or so, and what I will do is make the signals from it public with a small delay so that I can get in/out before anyone who decides to pay attention to it. And some period of time after that, I will of course start charging for it's use

Now without doubt I am certain this guy is a nutter.
Straight on to ignore. A complete watse of bandwidth.

DB008 · 5 April 2012

tech/a said:
Now without doubt I am certain this guy is a nutter.
Straight on to ignore. A complete watse of bandwidth.

+1
(Ignore engaged)

McLovin · 5 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
I actually have a similar but an even better idea. I am planning to write trading software over the course of the next year or so, and what I will do is make the signals from it public with a small delay so that I can get in/out before anyone who decides to pay attention to it. And some period of time after that, I will of course start charging for it's use

Wow. I'm not sure whether you're very naive or very arrogant. Maybe both.

professor_frink · 5 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
I actually have a similar but an even better idea. I am planning to write trading software over the course of the next year or so, and what I will do is make the signals from it public with a small delay so that I can get in/out before anyone who decides to pay attention to it. And some period of time after that, I will of course start charging for it's use

So that's a no then?

Thanks for the reply though, at least now I know how much attention I need to pay to the posts you make.

Glen48 · 5 April 2012

Totally agree with every thing you say SCM, the market crashed in 30's took until 1957 to get back to the same level 27 YRS about, 2012 + 27 a long time.
The prices of eggs will be next to tank as every one will be getting a large helping from ASF property site.

The future of Australian property prices

MrBurns

trainspotter

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

lenny

trainspotter

trainspotter

rryall

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

prawn_86

Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata

professor_frink

Moderator

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

McLovin

odds-on

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Starcraftmazter

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

DB008

McLovin

professor_frink

Moderator

Glen48

Money can't buy Poverty

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