Don't re-quote me and nit-pick my post without providing numbers.
Your an engineer, much smarter than me in the field of maths.
Give me numbers, per year, from 2012 to 2020.
Do a spreadsheet if you have to, and go into detail.
40% to 2020
60% to 2030
Both figures are real terms and from peak. I've never given any other figure. I really don't know how to make that any more clear.
Report on present supply/demand situation in Australia.
So here you are agreeing that there is undersupply of housing in Australia.While I largely agree with most of the things said there,
So here you are directly contradicting your earlier comment.Fourth of all, there is significant over-supply across the country which will force prices down.
"Heighs"??? Hope your engineering skills are better than your spelling.On that note, the quantity of properties on sale is at record heighs.
Hard to know why you're hanging about here.No, our economy will be in ruin. Millions underwater on their mortgages, and countless jobs will be lost. Complete and utter devastation. Personally, I'm planning to move to Switzerland.
+1.I really don't understand why you said that you would wait until 2020 (before you leave the country out of frustration) when you have predicted continued falls until 2030 in this latest post. You clearly don't think there is any point buying a house here until the later date - so why even bother staying?
I know your position, but your targets never seem consistent to me.
Self confidence is usually a good thing.Nice counter-arguments....not! Complete lack of substance from you two indicating a lack of knowledge of the subject matter.
I expect nothing more.
Now I don't know about you, but I am quite confident that I am better than at least 30% of other engineers in my field. Hell, I'd even say 99%
The question was not for you.
First of all, I never said anything about carboard boxes. You are basically putting words in my mouth trying to be a smartarse. This only makes you look a fool. Either contribute to the thread or don't post in it. If you have any counter-arguments, I'd love to hear them, but so far you have nothing, so perhaps you ought to consider saying less until you have something of substance to say.
What are the 'real terms' and 'peak' numbers?
1) You have already stated that the 'crash/pop' has begun (your words)
2) Give me a 'peak' number from Jan/Feb or March so l can work out the 2020 figure.
For example, I've been spending a lot of time in Romania looking at property portfolios, where residential property is probably on average 40% off its peak and much worse than that outside the capital (60% or more).
So here you are agreeing that there is undersupply of housing in Australia.
So here you are directly contradicting your earlier comment.
Not the first time you have done this by any means.
Hard to know why you're hanging about here.
Would you like some help to pack?
It's hard to say whether you're deliberately being rude and inflammatory, or whether, sadly, you just have no manners or capacity for civilised discussion.
Are you looking to invest for rental yields? From what I've seen, yields in Romania are very good - however the economy is in bad shape, and I am personally unaware of just how safe it is to conduct such investments there. Have you got any comments on this?
Was it Romania where people typically borrow from foreign banks (Hungarian banks?) to pay for their home loans, who are now facing trouble because the Romanian currency has significantly devalued and they can't keep up interest payments?
Oh, don't be ridiculous. If you say you largely agree with something, then you are making pretty clear that you do not disagree with it.I am not contradicting anything - perhaps you ought to re-read my post. I said largely - not completely.
Many of us here have managed to do it. For someone of your astonishing level of brilliance and infallibility, it should be no problem at all.Moving countries is quite a big task. Leaving behind friends, family. Your qualifications might not be accepted in other countries. You don't have any references there. You don't know anyone there. Personally, I don't know the languages spoken in any of the countries I'd like to move to either.
Surely you understand the complexity in all this?
Oh, don't be ridiculous. If you say you largely agree with something, then you are making pretty clear that you do not disagree with it.
You then later completely contradicted this. Finish. End of story.
Many of us here have managed to do it. For someone of your astonishing level of brilliance and infallibility, it should be no problem at all.
Perhaps, though, it's a case of all talk and no hope of walking the walk.
Just a scared kid underneath all the hubristic nonsense.
Does this mean property prices will fall 40% by 2020 ....... I think not !!!
2020 is a long way away…. What do you think residential property prices will do in the next 3-5 years? Do you think rental yields or ratios of property prices to average income is relevant and if so, what do you see those metrics doing? Are you bullish on the macro situation?
2020 is a long way away…. What do you think residential property prices will do in the next 3-5 years? Do you think rental yields or ratios of property prices to average income is relevant and if so, what do you see those metrics doing? Are you bullish on the macro situation?
Interesting... how do you reconcile the two positions - rising wages and flat or poor GDP growth?Wages will increase and meet PP/AI .......... yields on rents WILL RISE !! It is happening now !! Labor in power and all that palava.
As for the macro situation I am not bullish at all. I am experienced in Australia only. I am off to Portugal in 2 days for a month. I will report after this fact finding mission.
Interesting... how do you reconcile the two positions - rising wages and flat or poor GDP growth?
Interesting... how do you reconcile the two positions - rising wages and flat or poor GDP growth?
GDP to CPI is a behemoth. We are currently in a stagflation of wage growth. As fast as the Unions want the proletariat to be paid it is gobbled up by CPI and other indexes. We are treading water at best. Rich get richer and the poor get the picture.
As long as OZ land is looked upon as a great big hole in the ground for it's mineral wealth and China (let alone India) is prepared to take our product I really don't see an issue. Dont get me started on our Uranium deposits.
The banks here are the most profitable IN THE WORLD !!!!!!!!!!! Their loan books are FAT
Trainspotter - in a relatively illiquid market (relative to other instruments) and with relatively few good data points to rely on, it seems to me its hard to be objective. As you pointed out, in any market, there will always be winners and losers and if you only have a small number of properties your experience may vary widely from the average. It seems to me to be very difficult to be scientific about property prices - emotion and bravado seem to reign supreme and people's opinions appear highly correlated to their vested interests...
...emotion and bravado seem to reign supreme and people's opinions appear highly correlated to their vested interests...
As it is always DoctorJ, My limitations extend to 23 years and over 300 houses as well as numerous subdivisions and strata companies.
My experience is limited to Australalaia only which is why I am going to Portugal to be a grown up and see if it is relevant over there?
Nice talking to you my friend. Keep smiling
Did 7 weeks in Spain France Italy Germany last year.
Spain was amazing
It's completely stuffed.
I saw on one of the coastal resort towns 200 esplanade apartments
All perfect and all completed for sale --- they had been that way for 3 years!
200 meters down the road another 200 these under construction materials Cranes and temporary fencing all in place.
But not a sole to be seen--- that had also been lik that for 3 years
Just walked away!
Friends have a villa in one of these.
Paid €300.000
they are trying to sell it at € 99,000
but around 30 in the block of 100 want €60,000
Now I have also spent 9 weeks in the US and have a few friends who are well healed in both commercial and domestic property there.
But those delivering their views here are just regurgitating media rubbish.Australia isn't remotely similar to either the US or EUROPE.
I can't be bothered discussing subjects where people just bludgeon their views on posters who quite frankly are streets in front of their theories.
Anyway carry on
Circular rubbish which satisfies your view of sitting and watching
Is exactly what you should have
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